Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20141107 : v

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line November 7, 2014

Gridlock in washington. First, the fate of the Affordable Care act, also known as obamacare, will once again be in the hands of the u. S. Supreme court. Justices have decided to hear an appeal of the law. Our Supreme Court reporter joins me on the phone. This appeal deals with subsidies or tax credits. They have helped more than 4 million americans afford insurance. Arent these subsidies the linchpin of the Health Care Law . They are really important. Without them, most or all of those people could not afford insurance. If they cannot afford insurance, that would mean that only the most to desperate people might buy insurance. That would essentially send the Insurance Markets what the Administration Calls a death spiral. Hospitals would have fewer people coming to the with insurance. Their costs would be raised. And it would potentially undermine the law. You have been covering this from the beginning. This appeal is not about nuance. Opponents say the language of the law cannot be interpreted to mean the federal government supersedes the state. Right. Before, it was about a big house additional issue. And now there are four little words that say established by the state. That means that the subsidies can go to online exchanges established by a state. The issue is that two thirds of the state have not set up for have not set up exchanges. The ripple effects look like in the healthcare sector if the Supreme Court rules against the administration. As i said, it has the potential the word i have heard a lot today is destabilize the potential to destabilize Insurance Markets, their price, their policies. It could potentially mean that many more people do not have insurance and that is exactly the problem that the obama care law was designed to fix in the first place. When the court upheld the Affordable Care law in 2012, chief Justice Roberts said it was not up to the justices to rule on the laws fairness. In the hands of lawmakers. Back to capitol hill and to the states. Depending on how this comes out, it may be that states still have the ability to do some things that would deal with the problem. Certainly, if the administration loses that in the Supreme Court one way or another, the legislative and executive branches will have to get back involved in this. Greg, thank you. President obama and Republican Leaders are pledging to try and find Common Ground but there is still major hurdles in their way. Phil mattingly is there and he joins us with the details. Good afternoon. In the wake of tuesdays sweeping republican victory, each leader has lay down their markers on what they expect for the next congress to do. As you mentioned, as of now, they are meeting for the first time facetoface and they are doing so under a cloud about what president obama may do live do unilaterally in a few weeks. Speakerintend weiner said it was akin to the white house and the president playing with matches, potentially poisoning the well for any agreement going forward. While they meet today, this will set an early tone but there is still a lot of questions to work out if they are going to finally get to the table on anything and get something done. Both sides spoken about areas where they can Work Together. What are those exactly . There are three the people point to that both sides feel like not only are there areas they can work to get Work Together but progress has been made. Some form of tax reform. Republicans want to pair corporate with individual tax reform. The white house still sticking on corporate only. You also have trade. Republican support the White House Position on free trade. For more than the democrats do. So there is Fertile Ground there. The third is infrastructure spending. They do feel like the republicans are aware of their own districts and own state fault lies on this. Those are the three areas right now the they will be focused on. Whether or not they can get agreements is an open question. Do white house officials have any confidence that Republican Leaders can bring their conferences along on any potential compromise . This is where there is a lot of skepticism when you talk to white house officials. This is where people are very concerned. It starts at the house with speaker john boehner. There is a feeling that john boehner has regularly come to the table with them over the last three years and hasnt been able to bring his conference along to where boehner himself is. Obviously, that is a big question. Mitch mcconnell taking a leadership role in the senate, will he be able to controlling keep in mind senators like ted cruz should he and the white house agree on something . Nobody at the white house is convinced republicans can actually do that. Republicans will be on the hook to prove that in the months ahead. Thank you. Now lets get you to the other top stories we are following. Detroit won approval of a plan that backers say will allow it to exit its record 18 billion municipal bankruptcy. Federal bankruptcy judge steven rose said he would confirm the plan which does away with 7 billion in debt and and lists charities, creditors and billionaires, such as dan gilbert, in rebuilding the city and fixingshing the beleaguered pension system. The city will be on what is called a little bit of a dive for a while. The red allege, the u. S. Attorney for the Eastern District of new york has emerged as the leading choice to be the next u. S. Attorney general. President obama does not plan to make the nomination after he until after a trip to china next week. Federal reserve chairman janet yellen spoke in paris today. She said Central Banks must do whatever it takes if governments will not do it economieseinvigorate with inflation. The severity force policymakers to respond rapidly bothreatively, employing monetary and fiscal policies to arrest a steep economic downturn and restart the global economy. Given this slow and unsteady nature of the recovery, the port of policy remains necessary. Transocean will delay posting thirdquarter results after saying earnings will be hit by e than two point thirds 2. 75 billion in charges. Review seas. Transocean is the largest fleet of deepwater drilling rigs. Rateg up, the u. S. Jobless jobs to a sixyear low. We will look at todays report to see if the labor market can sustain this momentum despite low wage growth. Bottom line continues in a moment. Welcome back. More on jobs. The u. S. Unemployment rate for october dropped to a sixyear low. Michelle gerrard is a chief economist at abr securities. The Unemployment Rate fell but the Labor Force Participation rate rose. How do you explain that . This month, and it hasnt always been the case, the Unemployment Rate for the right reasons. Again, 683,000de people who said they had found work. That was actually more than we had enter the labor force. People leaving the labor force has been a problem. That is what in many cases brought the Unemployment Rate down. But in this case, people came in to the labor force, look for work and more than found jobs. That is why the and implement rate fell. Median Household Income in the United States is 54,045. Incomes4. 5 lower than than when the recession began in 2007. We had this conversation before, but when will americans start to see a real acceleration in wages . Is that the biggest hurdle right now for the overall u. S. Economy . It is absolutely an ongoing challenge. But there is actually good news. If you look at those statistics, the latest numbers show, while we are still down from when we enter the recession, we actually improved last year. Rise inedian income real terms, which is something we havent seen before. In other data, we see evidence that middle and lower income earners are starting to see some of the benefits their wages are starting to rise, kind of catching up to upper income earners. This is an important development. Mayives me hope that we actually look ahead to 2015 and think the household sector, the consumers are better than they any point inn at this expansion. Gas prices are now at the lowest level in the past four years. That means more spending money for americans. Will they spend that extra manning extra money . I think so. I think this is actually going to be a pretty strong holiday season, certainly relative to recent years. Lower gas prices gives consumers more wherewithal to spend on christmas on holiday items, but they feel more confident about their financial position. That comes through in the confidence studies, a real improvement in the last month or two. I think that is a very positive development. We have had good job growth. While the hourly pay is not going up, the fact that more people are working, this is more dollars in the aggregate that can be spent. I am speaking with Michelle Gerrard, chief u. S. Economist at rbs. Theier this week, Manufacturing Index rose. Well be improving consumer sentiment, job growth, and lower gas prices be enough to help u. S. Companies as they deal with slow growth in the Global Markets . I think that is an important point. Has been there concern about what it could mean for the u. S. I think we should not be overly concerned. Two thirds of this economy really is consumer spending. The u. S. Domestic consumer spending. For all the things we have talked about, i think the u. S. Consumer is on a number on an uptrend, if you will. I think the offset a weaker Global Growth is smaller in terms of a larger emerging positive with respect to domestic demand that i think well end up being the bigger story. Quite side you think the fed will interpret all of this data . Well janet yellen and her colleagues see this as a sign to raise Interest Rates or will it give the fed more reason to keep the rate near zero numeral nears zero . Point, maybe around the middle of 2015, it will be time to start moving rates off of zero. I dont feel that they feel an urgency to move sooner because wages arent moving up. Inflation is well contained. It is not moving anywhere fast. Theont have to worry about moving sooner than expected. At the same time, with yet another year by next june under our belts perhaps improving growth, the rationale for continuing to keep rates at zero will continue to weaken. I think that leaves them very much on the path that they have laid out for gradual Monetary Policy normalization starting in 2015. Michelle, its always a pleasure. Thanks, mark. More now on the ruling on detroits record they grab see. Stephen rhodes has approved the citys plan on how to cut it 7 billion debt. Andrew dunn joins me with the details. I know its been a busy afternoon. How is itt case, different from a corporate reorganization . As a municipal bankruptcy, one of the things that the judges and the parties involved want to do is make sure that the quality of the city doesnt suffer too much in paying other creditors, bonds and insurers. There is a great deal of mediation over contesting interests, the pension for retired workers versus the bondholders and the investors in wall street. So theres a great deal of mediation. Usually, the pensioners have recently come out a little bit ahead. I was the city eventually able to get the bondholders and insurers to agree to this . No one was really happy with the outcome. In a bankruptcy, not everybody is ever really happy. Then you know its been done right. One thing that was important is that steven rose got ahead of the conflicts by appointing gerald rosen, the mediator, who is a chief judge in district. He has a great ill of authority in the area. He was able to get people together in a room, very late sessions, very long sessions sometimes, and compel them to either get on the train or get in front of the train. [laughter] what is next for the city of detroit . They have a 1. 7 billion revitalization plan spread out over 10 years. Simple things like street lights and buses need to be improved, computer systems, information technology. Things that other municipalities in this country take for granted. And the emergency manager who guided a lot of this program was poorlyfrank about how equipped the city was to handle the most basic tasks of administration. On top of that, there is the enormous blight and dilapidated by a drastichind drop in population in the last two decades. Hat will have to be rebuilt mike dugan andr, the city council, is this a question of do no harm . We are giving you a way out so let us do what we have to do . A number of executives took charge of the city for more than a year to guide the administration. Now those people, including kevin moore, have lost some of their powers. Those powers have been diverted to the mayor and the city government. And they will be responsible for seeing through a lot of this program and making sure it is done properly and efficiently. Seed, 16 months, that is unheard of. San bernadinos progress was probably set back a couple of months. It is beginning to end a very swift process. Discussing the trick, thank you so much. More on the detroit bankruptcy is coming up. Charles moore is a turnaround specialist from the detroit area from conway mackenzie, the firm that was originally brought on to handle the citys bankruptcy. That is coming up in about 10 minutes right here on bottom line. Nextxt, julie hyman has a the latest on the markets. A jim farley from ford is being sent to run the moneylosing european division. Farley was once considered in the running for fords top job. Will take farleys marketing job. Ford is projecting a 1. 2 billion loss in europe this year. You might think of new york citys streets as always being clogged with traffic. But there is a speed limit. Is now being reduced from 30 Miles Per Hour to 25 Miles Per Hour. It applies to all locations where a maximum speed is not is not posted. On therg television is markets. Julie hyman is standing by with the details. Lets take a look at where stocks are trading right now cap ending the week on a blah note, not really moving decisively one way or the other. However, if there is any gay on the s p or the dow today, it means they will close at a record, even if that gain is less than a point in the case of the s p 500 index. In terms of individual stocks, lets look at sears. A big move. Most in a jumping the decade after it said it is considering the sale of up to 300 stores to a newly formed Real Estate Investment trust. Sears will continue to operate the stores in locations sold to the reit under places. Abercrombie fitch hit a new low. Costs and closing some stores. So far not bearing fruit. Wechsler comeback to the second halfhour of bottom line on bloomberg television. It is time now for the commodities report. Su keenan is in the newsroom with details. The spotlightng in commodities trading today, advancing the most since june on the latest jobs data showing disappointing job growth. The safe haven in Precious Metals is back. Gold, silver and palladium all of 2 and 3 . The dollar fell as a result. Is tracking the dollar and the treasury market even with todays gains. Lows still near a fouryear. Meanwhile, gold bar when has jumped to a sixyear run. Investors are piling in on bearish bets. Some traders are saying it is the a kneejerk reaction to dollar tumbling and people buying back their short positions. If you look at the energy price move, oil had been a lot higher. Nonetheless, it is still up 8 . Traders will focus on the demand story. That is part of the jobs number. The drop in unemployment means more people will be consuming goods and driving. On a weekly basis, oil posted losses again. Forecastproduced every , except for next year. That is according to the outlook released just yesterday. More oilt makes clear than is needed is being produced and that is the big picture story. What is the outlook for next week . Analysts are forecasting a rising price or holding at these levels, these bounceback levels. 16. 34. They are equally divided and predicting staying right where we are. In terms of what happens at that opec meeting coming up at the analystse month, believe that opec will announce production cuts. Others say they will stay where they are. Su keenan with the commodities report. Thank you. Theay only be november but Public Discourse has already turned to what can be accomplished next year in 2015. Yang yang joins us with what can be expected in the year ahead. The discussion has already been will there be more gridlock . Thats right. More gridlock certainly, but this after congressional leaders and the president made at the white house intended to cut through some of that, especially agenda items they can complete this year. The big question is what can they accomplish in the new year in a new congress . Both sides have acknowledged there are more issues keeping them apart. So we can expect more headbutting on immigration reform. Already Speaker Boehner and Mitch Mcconnell have warned the president that going it alone would poison the well. Other bigticket disagreements sure to come up again is republican attempts to cut back portions of the Affordable Care act, provisions to the the xlank reform law, pipeline. For the democrats on the president , the issue of increasing the federal minimum wage. It wont come as a surprise to anyone if we see the president bringing out his veto and more frequently in his last two years in office. How about areas of agreement . What can they actually compass together in the next two years . You are a glasshavefull kind of guy, mark. Business, tax reform, and infrastructure are the big areas where both sides are closer together. Expect to see some movement on those issues earlier than later. Of senator mcconnells first prior

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