Syria in 2014. Officials have learned that he returned to europe through grace. He was a Belgian National who grew up in molenbeek, a district in brussels that has emerged as a hotbed of extremism. Belgian officials arrested nine individuals in brussels today, seven of them linked to a man who detonated a suicide vest. Questions remain as authorities persist in their investigation among them, whether isis is pursuing attacks outside of syria and iraq. French Prime Minister manuel valls described the threat in a speech this morning. Prime minister valls what is new is the modus operandi, the way of carrying out an attack, of killing, is constantly evolving. The macabre imagination of the ringleaders is endless. Assault weapons, stabbings, all of these together carried on by individuals or, in this case, organized commandos. Nothing can be excluded from the ringleaders imagination. And i say this, of course, with all of the necessary precautions, but we bear it in mind, there is also the risk of chemical weapons. Charlie mayor bill de blasio advised that in a video threatening an attack on manhattan was not credible. Mayor de blasio as you know, there was a video portraying scenes where we are now in an obvious attempt to intimidate the people of new york city. It is important to note that there is no credible and specific threat against new york city. Charlie joining me now, will mccann. His new book is called the isis apocalypse. Graeme wood is a contributing editor at the atlantic. His march cover story what isis really wants generated much discussion about the groups intentions. Ian fisher leads the Investigation Department at the New York Times. His article today focuses on the rise of isis. He says many strands of blame, but no key to the complex puzzle. Lets begin with the rise of isis. Take us to how this group began and how they have grown. Ian you have to look at two different moments, and the first moment this will be a little controversial 2003. The American Military came into baghdad. Some of our early decisions were, you know, we did not have a lot of experience there, so it is difficult to cast a deep blame, but we marginalize the regime of Saddam Hussein. A lot of really talented people talented, able people in the bureaucracy had nowhere to go. The people supported these shia, and very quickly, alzarqawi, a jordanian militant, was smart enough to see that. He was very clever to realize that these people were going to be marginalized and he ended up organizing very quickly. I recall talking to an insurgent back in 2003 and it was very clear, it was a sunni who lost his job. They talked about religion, talked about tribalism. So, anyway, we all know the story, americas fight with the insurgents there is well known. I think it took us a long time. And by the end, i think most people agree and people who disagree with the invasion say that the American Military, aligned with sunni tribesmen, did a pretty good job tamping down the al qaeda, you know, sunni insurgency charlie the socalled awakening. Ian the two of them together, yes. I did some reporting. I think they did a good job, but there were a lot of problems involved. Among them was and this was very clear. I did some reporting back in 2009 and 2010, the shia controlled government made a lot of promises to the sunnis. They said, we will give you jobs, we will pay you salaries. Your families. Again, its very tribal. We will take care of everybody. You will be integrated in this. And they were not. There was a huge disaffection among sunnis. If i can make a broader point, its really difficult to cast blame on, you know there are a lot of things to talk about. Where did these sunnis have to go, really . There is a shia state and theres no question about that. In some ways, i think at the end we can talk about isis, but where do the sunnis go . They have been very isolated. Charlie and some say that they are the key to defeat isis . Ian some are, yes. Charlie what would you also note . Graeme there was a need for a muslim government that was aided by the construction of a caliphate. I have talked to many who were supportive of the group, who had gone to the group to fight, and they would say the idea of the caliphate, a unified government for all sunni muslims is something that they had wanted for a long time. It answered a deep longing. So especially for the foreign fighter element of this, it is important to see that in some ways, this is a long time coming. It was satisfying something they had been thinking about and intellectually developing for a long time, and also it is important to note it was the revival of a kind of islam that really was left behind by many of the jihadist movements that had come before, too. Charlie help me, tell me if i am wrong, but my recollection of the story was Osama Bin Laden was against creating a state because he thought it would create new problems. Graeme yes, its a very ambitious thing. If you put down a whole new flag and you say this is where we are going to rally to, this is where to attack if you want to attack us, you make yourself vulnerable to all sorts of things. Charlie the middle east is full of that. Graeme it is something that you can rally two, of course. As ian was just saying, if you do have a place where there is enough chaos, there is enough disaffection, a vacuum of power, you have a great opportunity to put down that flag and be fairly sure no one is going to attack you and take it away. Charlie the maliki government turned out to be much worse than any one expected, including americans who supported them. How does that tie in . And who is al baghdadi . Will he is from a northern part of iraq. His nickname growing up was the believer, because he had a devotion to religious texts, but also a penchant for telling people off for not adhering to his form of islamic law. Throughout his life, he gravitated toward more and more extreme forms and ultraconservative forms of islam until the year 2000 he big basically became what we call a jihadist and was seeking out to carry out revolution against the state. At the same time he was getting his graduate degree. He ended up getting a phd in koranic studies in 2007 while he was fighting an insurgency. He was very clever in navigating the cutthroat politics of the Islamic State and rose through its rank to become its leader in 2010. Charlie he was also in prison for a while. Will he was. He was detained by the americans in 2004. He was only there for nine months. He made important connections. He served as a spiritual leader, an imam, working with other jihadists, but also members of Saddam Husseins regime. He kept those connections. Many came up with him through the ranks of the Islamic State. Charlie help me understand how that came together to emerge as the beginnings of what we see today. Will in 2006, they proclaimed their Islamic State. Charlie 2006 . Nine years ago . Will over the objections of bin laden. They did not feel the timing was right to do it, and other jihadists laughed at them because they did not have a state. It was really the american withdrawal in iraq. And the civil war in syria that gave them the room to operate. They had been pushed underground as a terrorist operation, but they took advantage of the chaos in the political disaffection among the sunnis to begin state building. They assassinated people they thought would resist them. They carried out intense campaigns of proselytizing, and then they moved in troops, took over towns and built the state you see today. The problem is, they are prosecuting a war. Which puts their state building enterprise at risk. Charlie having a state means there is territory, but it serves for recruitment. This is real. This is serious. We have a place. Will that is right. And as graeme said, it is the biggest attraction to other young muslims who are looking not only for a sunni homeland, but they are looking for the appearance of gods kingdom on earth, which disappeared in the middle ages and they claim to have recreated, the socalled caliphate. They say it is a fulfillment of prophecy and heralds the end of time. Charlie what about the recruits and those people joining them . Who are they . Where are they coming from . What can we say about them . Ian . Ian i think we can say they are from everywhere. Charlie around the world . Ian yes, around the world. What has most concerned people, is that they are from the west. From europe, especially. We have created a democracy. Why dont you like our democracy . What is wrong with it . What would make you go back into what is essentially a medieval caliphate . I think it tends to be a mixture of people. Please, you all know way more about this than i do. They are very devout, religiously. It tends to attract people who are very much searching in life, who tend to be lost in looking for meaning. Graeme i have found people with really diverse backgrounds. People who are shockingly learned. People who are incredible readers of texts, who know their tradition very well. They have a very skewed reading of that tradition. I have known people a few years before they became supportive of the Islamic State were simply criminals. They had no idea about any of the things that they are now spouting about for anyone who will listen. So, its a very wide diversity of people. Charlie tell me if this is wrong again, but my impression of abdelhamid abaaoud, he was one of those. I mean, he really was he was not a learned religious fanatic. He was very much a criminal. Graeme he flunked out of school. I believe he had run into the law. He was in that category who found the Islamic State almost to be a life of redemption. That seems to be a very common trope. They do find sincere belief, but its after a long time of lacking any belief at all. Ian this is consistent with isis. Alzarqawi, the man often credited as being the founder was a thief. He found redemption in religion, the idea of a state. Its not surprising to find people like that finding the state attractive. Charlie america will not find redemption in religion . Ian indeed. In this particular one. Charlie alzarqawi, again, he is considered to be the father . Ian he is the intellectual father of the Islamic State project. He conceived the idea after he flees afghanistan, he is hiding out in iran, hes thinking about where to go next. He sees the americans are going to go to iraq and he decides to preposition his network of terrorists before the americans arrive in order to create chaos because he believes that he can capitalize on it to found an Islamic State. Charlie at that point, before he was killed, did he make the association with all of those exiraqi generals . Will he did. And a number of them joined up with his organization. Charlie what do we know about al baghdadis abilities as a leader . Is it he who enhanced the idea of beheadings . Will no, it was zarqawi. It was soon after the abu ghraib revelations. He marched his captives out in the same orange jumpsuits. It horrified his superiors. But its really emblematic of their more brutal form of insurgency. Charlie what is the attraction to the young people they are recruiting . Will some of them just get off on horrific acts of violence. For some, in the west, it creates questions about whether the Islamic State is truly islamic or not. Traditional scholars come out and say, no, no, this has nothing to do with islam. And then the Islamic State comes out chapter and verse. It creates questions in the minds of young muslims. Some of them end up joining as a consequence. Charlie in your piece in the New York Times today, many strands of blame, but no single missed key to the groups terrifying and complex puzzle. You didnt write the headline ian i did not. [laughter] charlie but its your story. Tell me about those strands of blame, but no single missed key. Ian when you look at the many strands of blame, i mean clearly, if we had not invaded iraq, i think it would be a question about whether isis would exist. The invasion of iraq and the way that we did it gave zarqawi a very clear path forward. Charlie and allowed the sectarian war to fester. Ian exactly. There were many inflection points of getting the sunnis and the shia together. It didnt happen overnight. Then there is the question of president obama. A lot of people say the withdrawal from iraq. We had them down. Thats the real, sort of we left no troops there, the iraqis did not want us there, but could we have pushed more to get people there . And you know, i dont have the answer to that. Could we have continued to keep pressure on that . Would we have moved into syria after that . In terms of, you know, i have a lot of questions in my own brain about you know, there is a lot of talk about arming the moderate antiassad groups in syria, was that a big mistake of obamas . I dont know the answer to that. Arms tend to go in the hands of bad guys. Im sorry . Charlie and some of the arms that we sent in did go into the hands of ian that is the point that i am making. Charlie some of the vehicles. Ian but what is very clear, we underestimated isis. There is a cost to action. There is a cost to in action. When you underestimate someone, you cant make a really clear equation as to what is the cost of action versus inaction. Charlie lets talk about today. Albaghdadi, everyone is interested in him. We think he is in raqqa, we guess. I assume if they are chance to take him out, they would. They want to reduce socalled Collateral Damage. But they would even risk Collateral Damage for him, im sure. But they do not know where he is and raqqa is a town of what, 200,000 . Just about. And he is known for operational security. He was known for showing up at meetings and keeping a veil on his face. He has survived in that organization by being able to hide well. Charlie but he did make that appearance at the mosque on friday and spoke. Will and announced himself the caliph. Charlie if you look at this before paris, before lebanon, before the sinai and the russian plane, were they winning or losing . The administration argues they were shrinking the territory of the caliphate. Will yes, thats true. They were shrinking the territory. They have lost Something Like 25 of the territory. They have lost tens of thousands of fighters. Charlie and key people have been taken out. Will but they have been able to expand into other areas, which is why they were able to carry out that attack on the Russian Airliner in egypt. They have a powerful Insurgent Group that pledged an oath of allegiance to them and because of the political instability in the middle east, there are so many more places they can go. Ian they have a threefold strategy of expansion. The first one is conquest. They pretty much got to the margins of what they could accomplish in iraq and syria. They got to the edges of shia dominated areas and they simply cannot hold that territory. But as will is saying, they also have this ability to draw in allegiance from other groups and capitalize on chaos in libya, northern nigeria. Those two strategies are very much alive and putting a lot of emphasis on getting allegiance from groups like alshabaab in somalia and others. They are not finished. Although in iraq and syria, theres no question, they have had defeat after defeat after defeat. This is the last one and the string of defeats that they have had that have happened slowly, but surely. Charlie do you see a change in strategy, tactics . A global reach . That they want to achieve new objectives by attacking the west or russia and different places . Graeme on the one hand, they have been saying over and over again, we are going to attack the west. They have shown pictures of the eiffel tower, pictures of the white house in flames. They have always endorsed this. It has usually been in the model of inspiration, telling people that are allied with them or sympathetic to them they should be behind these attacks. What is new, they seem to be such larger attacks, so organized, there is a real possibility they were planned and provisioned from inside charlie they have money, and they have the threat of violence in terms of being able to get access to a plane. If you could threaten somebody in a way that nobody would know or if you have enough money . Ian yes. Totally. My question is why now . On the global business. They had distinguished themselves from al qaeda. They would take territory and fight on the ground next to them. What is the moment . Why did they decide to go global now . I dont know the answer to that. Charlie what are the three or four answers that might be . Ian i defer. Graeme here is one possibility. One is they believe themselves to be extremely strong, that they can with stand and attack and even if there is a coalition, including france, russia, the United States, that the result will be in their favor. I think that is, first of all unlikely to be true. But there are other possibilities. One possibility is we do not know yet what the association is between syria and paris. Between syria and sinai. Its not actually clear it was exactly planned from raqqa. There are aspects to the way it was announced that suggests the bombing of the Russian Airliner in paris in a way took them by surprise. Charlie the isis leadership in raqqa . Graeme at least their pr department. They have always tried to capitalize as much as possible. If you look at the most recent issue of their official magazine, as a magazine person, i can tell you there was a cover that was torn up so they could put paris on the cover instead. At least some unit of the pr apparatus did not know this was happening and did not have a magazine that would fully exploit it and glorify it. Charlie there may be an easy answer in this, but how did they get so smart about technology . Graeme they seem to know about layouts. Social media. They have people who are clearly trained, people who could make a living as copy editors at charlie an Advertising Agency . Graeme if they ever repent from isis, they might have a job at the atlantic. Charlie lets talk about the name. Americans are confused. We all use the word isis. Everyone in the government seems to use the word isil, and now you hear john kerry and others use daesh, which people come from the arab states use with me. Will they are all the same thing an