Out and i will give it to you in a second. In fact i brought a list in case , that question was asked. The money has been paid out. I have been thanked by so many veterans groups throughout the united states. One gentleman called me up recently crying that out of a blue he got a check for 100,000. I have been thanked by semi so many groups, great veterans groups. Arele are picketing, they sent by Hillary Clinton and they are picketing that the money was not sent. I do not think it is anyones business if i want to send money to the vets but i have to say this, i raised close to 6 million. It will be over that amount. When it is all said and done. As of this moment it is 5. 6 million. Charlie his comments were a response to a twitter announcement. He said that there will be an impressive contender. Meanwhile a new poll by , Associated Press in center for Public AffairsResearch Found that republican and democratic voters feel a significant disconnect with their political parties. Joining me here in new york is frank luntz and gerald seib, and jonathan martin, the National Political correspondent at the New York Times. Let me begin with this question. Trumps performance at this press conference, what did he achieve . Gerald he achieved an attack on the press. Which particularly for a republican candidate, is never a bad idea. He managed to take the oxygen out of the room one more time. It was remarkable that the press conference and the controversy that he was addressing might have been a problem for some other politician. The one thing that happens every time he gets out of the box like this is he takes the attention away from everybody else on the whole day was spent discussing and parsing donald trump and the veterans question. That has worked for him. Maybe at some point it will not work but right now it works for him. Charlie are all the questions answered . Not really. That was not the point. The point was to be take offense at the fact that the questions had been raised at all. That was the posture that was taken. I think some of the journalists who were there and others beyond the room were somewhat agog, because isnt that the point of journalism, to ask questions and demand answers . Jonathan he wants to make it about the media instead of his contributions or lack thereof to veterans groups. Whatever the story of the day is his posture is to create a fresh dustup to cover the previous one and he is very talented at that. I will point out that this press conference took place three days after donald trump at a rally in san diego complaining about the federal judge who was presiding over the lawsuit that has been filed against trump university. At that rally, mr. Trump invoked his ethnicity saying i believe , he is a mexican. This judge is an american, a federal judge but it is , remarkable that the nominee for president of the Republican Party can mention in a casual manner the ethnicity of a federal judge in that kind of a way and at a press conference , three days later he makes it all about veterans groups or about the press themselves, we all move on from that comment. It does capture the degree to which trump is able to create some new story and put the rest the previous one. Charlie is the press at fault . The press has to be aggressive in holding him accountable for the things he has said. You cannot just move on from the last controversy. We cannot be so consumed by his attacks on the press itself to stop ourselves from holding him accountable for some of the things here he is saying. Charlie why were they not send early . Jonathan the Washington Post has done a great job on this question about his giving to veterans groups. Unfortunately at these press , conferences we get so caught up in other issues that hes able to steer the conversation. The roots of these are simple. Reporters started calling up veterans organizations and saying, have you seen the money yet . It is not a grand conspiracy here at all. Charlie why was the money not sent . That is one of the questions that has not been answered. Lets just say it has taken a while. As jonathan suggests that became not the point anymore, as of today. He is holding press conferences. Is Hillary Clinton . How often does the media get to her . And this is one of the smart things that trump has done which we have not seen in a candidate which is he gives the press access to him. He does more interviews in a week than Hillary Clinton does in a month. He opens himself up. I agree with you because youre trying to hold him accountable but the fact is at least he gives access and once again this is the trump show. The average voter gets to see this exchange and what is happening, is they are deciding that the fact that he lets the press at him, that is what builds his credibility. If you watch what is happening even though he has a 35 favorability rating, more and more people are considering voting for him because he seems authentic. He seems genuine. Charlie he seems to have an attitude. It is a aggressive attitude but the public is looking for that. We did a survey in the swing states and we have identified none of the above, it is an 11 component of the electorate, and i believe they will determine the election. They are not responding to issues. They are responding to attributes. And the one attribute they want more than anything else is a candidate that is honest and trustworthy. They believe that trump is not. They believe clinton is not but the fact that trump allows people to get at him and goes back and forth with them, that creates an essence of authenticity that Hillary Clinton does not have. Charlie i assume it is also a sense of transparency. Which is what voters are looking for. I have never said publicly that i thought trump had the chance to win. I now believe, and it will frighten many of your viewers, he genuinely does because her campaign is as an authentic as anything i have seen and trump, he will have to get people who do not like him. But those people are going to give him a chance that they would not give Hillary Clinton and the clinton people have to wake up right now. Charlie both to jerry and jonathan, do you think what frank just said is increasingly becoming part of the conventional wisdom that trump can win this thing . Or not . Yeah. We have looked at states were that could be a reality. Pennsylvania and North Carolina, ohio, states where he has the chance to turn what had been a blue state into a red state in a way that another more conventional republican did not. Is it going to happen . Is it possible . People are realizing it is possible. Charlie you and a colleague are looking at four states. Jonathan there is no question that our reporting and the data we see reflects a competitive race and mr. Trump is going to be more formidable than folks at had a thought a few months ago. Structurally, the map works against any republican nominee whether it is trump or anyone else. Democrats have an advantage on the map. Since 1992, democrats have one 242 electoral votes. Throw outms he can the old map, but that is a daunting place to start for any republican nominee. Hillary clinton has not secured the nomination yet of her own party. Once that happens the polling will presumably look different just as it did in 2008 after the obama and clinton race came to an end and democrats came home. Have gathereds around trump the democrats have , not around hillary. Charlie and will the is the question. Jonathan more were hesitant about supporting obama who had backed her in the primary. It sure seems possible and there is no question there is bad blood right now in this democratic primary. The sanders folks are uneasy about Hillary Clinton and her campaign and the broader establishment but you will see a four to five months sustained Democratic Campaign warning those bernie people the alternative is trump and that is their most compelling weapon. Charlie and Supreme Court appointments and all of that. It is a change election goingge , back to 1980. I should say 2008 and 1980 so twice in the last 45 years. The sanders people, donald trump is their second choice. Charlie is that if you or a is that a significant factor . Lets say it is 10 of the vote. Ralph nader got 1 of the vote in and that flipped florida for 2000, bush over gore. Johnson,kes is gary these numbers are so small, these differences between trump and clinton and we have had this , in this country that no one wins by 20 points as they did 20 or 30 years ago. I do think it is significant. These sanders people want to shake up washington and wall street and Hillary Clinton is not in a position to get that type of voter. Charlie let me raise one question. This notion that bill kristol said over the weekend that there could be a thirdparty candidate. Do you guys see that as likely, do you know who he is talking about and does he know what he is talking about . It is likely something will happen. We have a third party candidate. Gary johnson on the libertarian ticket. It does not take much to tip the balance. It is hard to start from scratch right now and launch a meaningful independent president ial campaign. That is a tough thing. The green party is on balance and the Libertarian Party is on balance. This might be the place where these none of the above voters migrate. It is such a stranger that this is possible. It is possible they could find someone to run third party. It is too late to be on the texas ballot pending litigation that will be filed. And we are getting close to the line in North Carolina so whoever would run would have to gather signatures pretty quickly to get on some of these ballots. If you are a republican who is looking for someone who is not named trump or clinton you have an option. Gary johnson and bill well were governors in the 1990s, republican governors. Even if you do not think they will be president that is some somewhere you can go if you are a republican to cast a protest vote of some kind. As frank pointed out, if the johnsonwell ticket got 7 that is a significant number given how close this election could well be. Mike bloomberg could have been that candidate, and i think he made a miscalculation. In the polling that we did he would have taken equal or more votes away from trump. Charlie he would have kept anyone from getting to 70. Frank he started in the upper 20s. That makes him a viable candidate. He had the money and the message and he had the background and the experience. He could have done it. Charlie he could have been in the debate if he had 20 . Exactly, and that would have made it a very different race. And he chose not to do it. Charlie is bill kristol talking about mitt romney or not, does anyone know who he is talking about . Frank it is not going to be romney. I have done some reporting with his people and they indicate he is still very reluctant. His mind could be swayed but there is not a lot of time left here. They are up against the wall here on a lot of the state ballots. Charlie who is it . Other than gary johnson. And bill well. Frank or someone like bill sask, the senator from nebraska. Smart, tough, very quick on his feet and the ability to express , frustration with the Current System but that is not mitt , romney. Charlie [indiscernible] he is a popular and successful governor. The endorsement was a bit tepid. They said we should be for Hillary Clinton because he has the best chance of beating donald trump but i like that sanders guy. In the california contest that may be enough. Endorsements tend not to matter much, but this guy probably does make a difference. And the timing is right at a moment where they spent a lot of time and they seem to be creeping up in the polls. It does help hillary a bit. You cannot say jerry brown is part of the clinton establishment. He has had his differences with the Clinton Family over the years. What does it say that Bernie Sanders cannot win the nomination, no shot and yet he is pulling closer to Hillary Clinton with the election over . Charlie that is a very good question. Unhappiness with her . It is more than unhappiness. It is genuine discontent. Donald trump is unable to close the deal. Which is why these debates are going to the most Incredible Television i have to buy the , payperview rights. You and i together should get global payperview because there will be billions of people tuning in to see a trumpclinton fight. I am all for the hype but lets see what the numbers look like this summer after the democrats come home up for hillary first. It is a bit of a free throw for some of these democratic voters. They can vote for bernie, they can make a statement, they know it will not matter in the end because hillary will get the nation, but nothing is lost. Charlie everyone is trying to explain 2016, including you, gerry. This leads to a basic conclusion. The recession that started in 2007, and the recession of 2008 and 2009 scared and scared the electorate more deeply and more permanently than has been recognized before. Yes the Economic Statistics say , there has been a recovery and a relatively nice one at that, but Many Americans have never really recovered and perhaps never will. The experience has altered their attitude about the political and economic systems and their leaders, and left them willing to consider risky alternatives. Tell me more, but i think that is exactly what frank is telling him. Gerald there is that line that says the economic recovery is underway. There have been six years of economic growth, and there have been 74 straight months of job creation. The line that says we think the countrys off on the wrong track has been going down. The line in the polling that says we think the economy will get better, it keeps going down. There is this gap between what the economy is supposed to look like and what people actually feel. That is explained in part by the fact they think that what 2007 through 2009 showed a system that did not work for them and they have not forgotten that. The numbers say things like gdp growth do not change that view. , 49 of americans think their best days are behind it. When did you ever know americans to be that pessimistic . Two thirds believe the problems we face will get worse over the next 10 years rather than getting better. Charlie trump was right to frame it in terms of making America Great again . Frank incredibly, yes. Because he captured the emotion and passion, he is their voice. He is the vessel by which they communicate and that is why they will ignore all these weaknesses. Charlie they forgave what he said about john mccain, even on veterans day. Frank nothing seems to kill him up to this point. We will see what happens with the broader electorate, first. His numbers are terrible, he has the worst unfavorable numbers of any Major Party Nominee in american history. It is not like he has not been hurt. He has been hurt. He just has not been hurt with a slice of the republican electorate. Frank why is Hillary Clinton not destroying him . She has bad numbers, also. Her primary is going on and democrats have not come home yet. It is pretty straightforward. Frank that is why the none of the above, that 11 determinate. Charlie you assume that democrats will come home because they will look at the alternative and they will say even though i am not thrilled by her i am less thrilled by the possibility of donald trump winning. The alternative, it is the old joe biden saying. Do not compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. That will be the hillary message for the next five months. Yes my bernie folks, you do not love me. Perhaps i am part of the establishment but the alternative is donald trump and that will be their message. Look at the polling data versus 2008 when you had more people who were backing Hillary Clinton who said i would never vote for obama. Now you have the bernie folks who will say the same about Hillary Clinton. It does seem like we have to wait until the summer to feel what is going to happen in this race based upon what the democrats do after their primary. Charlie it seems like you are saying Hillary Clinton will be ok. They may not like her but when push comes to shove democrats will come home. Jonathan she still has a narrow advantage based on the Electoral College which favors democrats and, frankly, the fact that Donald Trumps numbers are terrible. Hers are not much better but they are better while her primary is going on. It is not wise to make the sweeping analyses about the race until after her primary is over. Frank i am unwilling to make the analysis. I dont think we should be comparing this to any other election because it is not like any other election. The voters have a different mindset than they did in 2008. And every time we have made an assumption on both sides, democrats and republicans, so many media people, so many pundits have got it wrong that stopme point you actually making projections, you stop comparing it to the past, and you let the voters speak for themselves. Charlie often when you look at president ial elections, some will say it is a debate on the future, some will say it depends who wins the debate and some say it depends on who is the most optimistic candidate. Some will say it depends on who it is a referendum on. Help me understand what this election will be about. Jonathan i am just about out of the projection business. Charlie i was asking for an understanding, not a projection. Jonathan i will give you that. A strange dynamics suggests itself. The question of how many people want to vote against Hillary Clinton stacked up against how many people want to vote against donald trump is not the way this race will be decided. You have negatives like we have never seen before as we have been discussing. The big question, how much of the