Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose 20160628 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose June 28, 2016

Opposition labour party has split into camps and already half of David Camerons cabinet as resigned. Officials tried to give ainsurance to the public and to the perez. Theyve said reassuring things to the market. Its clear now the budget fear iso. Pensions are safe. The market are stable and i think thats all have good new. Charlie mr. David cameron who mans to leave office in october said he would leave it to his successor to set in motion britains. Up exit. Michael grobe has left open the possibility that a second referendum could take place, however in an address to Parliament Today David Cameron said there must be no doubt on the result. I will report directly on the decision of the british people but i think important that we set off on this path of exiting from the European Union with trying to build as much good will as possible on both side. Charlie in a joint statement, Germanys Angela Merkel and other leaders urged britain to make a swift exit from the e. Up. Joining us, david sanger of the New York Times and greg ip of the wournls. Here in new york with me, john cassidy to have new yorker. I go first to ronald in london. Tell me what happened today that we could we should take note of . Today you had the Financial Market reckoning. A further dive in the value of sterling against the dollar and the yen and the euro. You saw also a big selloff in equities, the banks being hammered and then just right after market close, the up k. Topnotch iplea grade. S p downgrades us. This is the beginning and its what a lot of people predicted but im afraid many other who voted leave and campaigned for leave, the European Union said the people are fedup with the expert. Charlie any left on the part of those in london that believe they can revote . Theres lots. More than three Million People have signed a petition say thinking want a second referendum. We have some of the leading advocates who voted leave and campaigned for leave say they now have buyers remorse but David Cameron made it clear thats theres not going to be a second referendum. Were out and now we have to figure out our relationship with the European Union. Charlie beyond the economic aspects of this and relationships among nations and rhythmses with the European Commission and the commissions relationship with even, whats e impact in terms of geo political struggle . Theres the british hipp relationship, of course, with the. U. But there are so many intralocking and interdependent other elements of britains relationship. Obviously its a member of nato. 2 members of the. Up are. It is a key member of many other International Groups and its a big question thats being asked here in washington, to what degree does britains influence decline there and how does that hitter the United States . Of course in washington everybody everything comes back to what does it mean for us, right . So the concern is that the relationship, the special rhythm with britain is more than a phrase that goes back to roosevelt and churchill. It also connotes the fact that britain was often the one that intervened directly with other european nations, that moderated their trade demnds demands, that numbed nudged them along to contribute more militarily not only to nato but other efments and acted sort of as the informal crood coordinator of intelligence, something that weve learned in the attacks of paris and brussels europe is still having a hard time doing, sharing intelligence. The largeo larger question is if britain loses influence, if it is distracted for the next few years but this bid of political chaos, is it going to be able to play that hole and role and is there anything else able to step into it . The answer i heard over the weekend is pretty much not. The germans dont have the desire or capability to step out military. The french, theres too much sand in the gears between the way the u. S. Sees the world and the way the french do at times. Italy is too broke. The nether land is too small. The list goes on. Poland is not ready to step up to that roam. I think there are many in washington looking around trying to figure this out and why john kerry is in both brussels and london today. Charlie i happened to be in europe in the time in germany interviewing the president right after he left germany and had been there campaigning. He said youll have more influence in the European Union and youll do more of all of us if youre in the European Union. He hammered that time after time. Thats right and i was there in that remarkable News Conference with Prime Minister cam sexron in my insulated way i thought he had made a pretty compelling case and probably had moved a fair number of votes within britain despite the criticism that he was intervening in british politics. I guess the answer is we were all listening to that in london be, not the rest of the country. Charlie why is Vladimir Putin cheering . Putin sees this issue is one that divides the europeans and therefore helps him, i think, as he reasserts his power, sending bombers on bombing runs along the coast, submarines underneath off the coast of many European Countries and i think he believes that europe is both divided and distracted is not going to be able to stand up to him as much. Charlie thank you, david. Why did lose . They didnt remain lose . They didnt run a very Good Campaign to start with. Project fear is that what it was called. Most people thought that would work. It did for a few months but in the last month or so of campaigning, the leave campaign turned it into basically a referendum about immigration and the influx of workers and syrians, etc. They used a lot of very misleading argument but they seep emed to have worked with the seemed to have worked with the british public. There was a certain level of complacency by the establishment. Despite some of the polls, showing that leaving was winning. Most in the media and political establishment thought that when it came down to it, risk aversion and sheer caution would persuade enough team people to vote remain. Theyd get a lot of votes but lose narrowly. It seemed a lot of remain people stayed at home. High turnout in leave areas, low turnout in remain areas and it all added up to a lose. Charlie would you agree, lionel . Its shocking in a country that is open, open trailed. As david was saying weve been an american ally arguing for sthrabization. That has flown it into reers is. People in the big cities are out of touch with the rest of the country. People who felt margin liesed. Fear of immigration as opposed to real immigration. A lot of people who voted out actually were not touched by immigration. These people who felt out of touch with the government voted out. I think there were a lot of people who just feel left behind by globalization. Weve tended to think, people in the big cities, a city like london with it frnl center where we have lots we have 500,000 french People Living in london. Were comfortable with this. But other communities feel neglected, marginalized. The middle is being squeezed. Particularly after the financial criticize. This is a particular lag influence after the financial crisis and i think in that respect, there are lessons to the candidates, particularly mr. Trump, ahead of the november president ial elax. Charlie speak to the Economic Impact to the Global Economy because of this. The shortterm impact is pretty obvious. Youve seen that in the decline of stock markets around the world. Its going a big hit to british mick growth. Weve already heard several Large Companies say theyre going to move jobs out of britain because theyre less useful there in a britain outside of the European Union. Theres going to be a spillover impact on the European Union. Stock markets are fallen more in europe than they have in britain. Thats fear of what i call political contagion. You saw the netherlands and france use the brexit vote as a refund up for we should have a vote too. In france, the sentiment for leaving the. U. Is Even Stronger than have the in greet britain. Great britain. The final point is the impact on the entire world. I think in a year or two well have worked our way there out shortterm impact on sentiment and the stock market but this is a reflection point and move away from globalization. If we have higher barriers to the move of fwoods and product, less free trade, that is ultimately a slower growing world. Charlie will that happen, though . Thats a very good question and what ive found interesting about brexit, its been a test for those of us as people tend to see i see it as an affirmation of whatever their priors were. If you were a liberal you saw it as a in globalization and the power of inequality. Within hours of the vote, you saw Boris Johnson, the former mayor of london and run of the leaders of the leave movement say no, this was not a vote against immigration. We still they britons and europeans should be free to work in each others countries. Whether this will be the big turning point in globalization depends on what happens in the next three or four terms. What are the terms by which britain negotiates it separation from the rest of the European Union. If it turns out that whoever replaces David Cameron tries to come back with something similar to what we have now, we may look back and say it wasnt the big deal we think it is now. And we know dont know how election upcoming in germany and the get netherlands are going to respond. Charlie is Boris Johnson the next Prime Minister of Great Britain . I dont know. Hes certainly a strong contender at this stage. Watch out for allow weedsa may. Soft spoken louisea may. Soft spoken, and shes been warning if years there were too many immigrants coming into the european join something had to be done. 124est been the one in closer political touch. I would say one thing about gregs argument. I think its important to not draw premature conclusions but theres a big point here that this brexit crisis is not going to be resolved in a matter of weeks or months. We wont know what kind of british plan there is until the next british Prime Minister is chosen by september and then its going to take at least two years to negotiate a deal with the European Union. Whether theres 27 countries that going to have a say. Charlie do you expect to see other country take this path . Im not even confident britain is going to take this path. I think the chances of brexit actually going through is not much more than 5050 at this stage. Theres been so Much Movement in the markets and prominent leave people having Second Thought and fearful of the future. I think if they had the referendum again this week it would go down quite heavily. Charlie the fact that David Cameron said he didnt want to have a part of that. Heaviest playing a strange game. Es trying to get maximum keo. Resign moldly. He said hed represent respect it will of the people but he didnt do that. He said im going to resign in three months time. That threw the whole political system in chaos for three months and gave people a chance to sort of think again, i think. Im not saying i know whats going to happen. Its complete chaos but there could easily be a new general election. Could be a new leader on the general election. Get a lot of support from the business community. I dont think this game is finished. Charlie i agree on so many things but in this, not quite. There is method in this supposed madness. The reason that David Cameron did not invoke the article 15 of the lisbon treaty is because that would be irrevocable. That would set in motion the chain of circumstances where we do withdraw. What hes done now is say right, im going to be Prime Minister for a while but now were not going to have a second referendum. He cant say that. What hes done is open up a gap. Listen to Angela Merkel of germany. She said its ok. Its up to the brits to decide when to invoke article 50. What this needs is a period of reflection, a period of time where we work out what kind of deal we want. Plarkts crash, if theres a resex in britain, plarkts crash, if theres a resex in britain, maybe then people are will come to their secretaries and say we need to have a general election or Something Like that where a new government comes up with a new plan and john may be righting we might ask for our membership back. Theres a vote in ireland about the expansion of the treaty that govern the European Union. Theres a little bit of a negotiation to satisfy their concerns and they put it to a second vote and it passed. Thats one reason why you shouldnt leap to too many conclusions right now. I agree with lionel. Theres no way you can ignore the referendum. There was a vote for i. Its going to unleash such powerful forces we dont know where things are heading. Lets say that west coast of course ris johnson wins the election and becomes the Prime Minister. Does he have a mandate now to take britain out of the e. U. Without a further general election . I think a lot of people in parliament, not just linebacker our and liberal depralts would say he needs to go to the scun and get a mandate himself. The former Prime Minister said that in Parliament Today and David Cameron didnt knock him down so i think there is the real possibility of another general election in which case that would be a refund up on the result of the refund up. Charlie if Boris Johnson is a keabt, there would be a real question about his leadership. Yeah, could he actually bring all the torrey party with him . He would agree to a general election if he was up against jeremy corbyn. He could probably beat him hands down. Ts a new linebackeror labour leader, maybe he wont want a new general election. I worked alongside b of course ris johnson when he was correspondent for the daily telegram and the one world that comes to mind is elastic. Charlie what would be your definition of elastic . This case . B of course ris johnson will do what he thinks is to his interests and when it comes to saying one day from it been another it will be very elastic. John greg alluded to this earlier. Hell hes now saying this campaign wasnt about immigration, the vote wasnt about immigration. Is is completely opposite of all the campaigning. One thing that i saying is that David Cameron caused the lax. We know weaver going to have to move back and just drop and abandon all the tigs that we had so who can do that with the most panache . B obvious ris johnson. Charlie i saw something on a eatonat suggested that at and oxford, b of course ris johnson was a bigger shining star than David Cameron. He still hasnt gotten over the fact that he only got a second class ondegree. And David Cameron got a first class on his degree. Charlie at fox ford oxford. The competition goes that far back . Its got serious history. But b of course ris johnson honestly thinks hes many capable than David Cameron. He is ambitious. I believe having known and talked to him about his position on europe for a number of years that hes not antieuropean. He likes to have his cake and eat it. Charlie greg, reflect more on terms of contagion here. I think one of the reasons youve seen people, especially here in the quiet who are looking at our fall election so flummoxed by the result is trying to understand what it is in the populous that would drive them to this result. A lot of studies showed fairly clearly that brexit was going to leave the average five to 10 years from now and yet they voted for it anyway. When it comes to our fall election, for example, there noage race that the left and right side believe that Donald Trumps policies would be bad for the country, federal on trade. But when you look at the result, you have to say it appear that a lot of voters dont care. Maybe the ones who never benefited from globalization so theyre not going to lose any sleepo casting a void for a candidate whos against globalization. And youve seen trump playing exactly that note. After the vote on brexit he was saying my Campaign Like this campaign is a campaign against the elite. He gave a speech where he said globalization has destroyed the middle class. I think those sorts of emotional words can have an effect that be override the so the traditional debates we tend to have about whos going to make the economy stronger or raise middle class wage fu. One thing about trump, i take all the argument about how globalization arguments play into his favre. Hes certainly tapping into immigration. I think thats one big difference between the brexit vote and the u. S. Election. In the brexit vote you vote leave or remain. In the u. S. Election you vote donald trump Hillary Clinton. Prernlsed election. Charlie does hit give him any momentum at all because of the notion that somehow the pe

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