Guy welcome to countdown. Anna welcome to mondays program. Guy will be spending a lot of china talking about xi jinping and his visit to london. At the moment, chinese gdp. Gdp at 6. 9 . That was enough to past on losses pass on losses in the asian equity markets, still in the negative territory. Guy it has been worse. 2009 was worse. The midst of the financial crisis. Its the shape of the curve that will unnerve people. One of the questions we are asking today, you can get in touch with us on twitter, what is the best way to measure chinese Economic Activity . Measures out there set up for a previous year. Guy things like electricity consumption and things like that, is that still the most accurate guide . How do you measure services and china . How does it work . Colleagues at Bloomberg Intelligence saying we need more data. We saw that the crash in the stock market, and some were suggesting services should have been weaker. Guy you can never have enough data. How asian markets are reacting. A very good morning to you guys from hong kong. Its just past 1 00 p. M. Here. You guys were talking about data. There is such a thing as data overload. One after the other, chinese gdp, so on and so forth. Initial reaction was pronounced. It quickly reversed. We have picked up since then. We are down about a quarter of a percent. You can compare the levels to pregdp data. A little bit better. That is down to the japanese session. Most of the weakness there, a broadbased decline in tokyo. In fact, if you strip out the japan effect, and lets have a look at the japan index. Its not as bad as the other gauge. Were looking at some of the big winners, oil and gas up 1 . , resources, so on and so forth, these are leading the declines, especially , all seeing, bhp losses. If you want to tie a narrative to this, you guys were talking about services. Biggest portion of the economic pie. We will talk more about this in a moment. Growth not the same sort of dynamic 10 years ago in the chinese economy. That is the story of cross sector groups. Individual indices, very next. Shanghai leading the gains, up 3 10 of 1 . Is up seven times in the last eight sessions. Days out ofe, last the last nine. Shares are up now 16 from lows in september, late august. Sentiment is improving a bit. ,e are seeing some bright spots with the exception of industrial production. I will leave it there. Back to you guys. Guy thank you very much. Joining us from hong kong. With the market reaction. We have the china gdp numbers. It is the slowest case since early 2009. Even if we got a bit of a boost from services. How concerned should we be about that relative weakness compared to the recent years . We put that question to guess after the data came out. Aschina is not quite important as export numbers would lead you to believe. The effect may be overstated. The point is that if the u. S. Economy continues to do well, and if europe continues to pick up, then things in the Global Economy probably arent quite as bad as some people make it out to be. Issue is they policy economic slowdown. One major concern is a lot of traditional growth measures have not been effective. Again, if you look at todays data, investments still remain weak. If you want to stabilize growth, investment is still the key. Are expecting more supporting measures coming on both the fiscal side and the policy side. 2025, china will double the level of towards 100 trillion u. S. Dollars. That will be double the level of the United States and more than the next four nations combined. When we work our way through this data, how easy is it to determine the real picture . Services are beginning to take a bigger chunk of the pie. What can we read into this . Good morning. You just summed it up there. We are getting a mixed picture on chinas economy now. On headline basis, a bit better than expected, grew faster than economists rotted wood, and the came after a 5 trillion u. S. Dollars stock market route. Its linked to the currency the valuation. When you look under the bonnet, you see weakness there, Manufacturing Sector week, industrial very weak, big Growth Drivers for chinas economy. They are the old Growth Drivers. Even though we are seeing a surprise in services and consumer low, the new model is not enough to offset the old model. That is why china is stuck in the slow lane relative to the past. Anna many economists have their own measures on how strong or weak the chinese growth story is. What does it tell you about how realistic the chinese growth number is that we get from the Chinese Government . There is almost a cottage clearing Economic Data from china these days. You mentioned earlier that xi jinping prefers to look at electricity consumption. As good as we have out of china. Even if its not on the money, and of course it is always quite close to the governments growth target no matter what, its least giving us a direction for the chinese economy is going. They are improving transparency as part of getting currency reserves out of the imf. Earlier,ou mentioning especially in the service area, a little better handle on what is happening there. There are questions around the veracity of Economic Data for sure. Anna thank you very much. One of the most uplifting things i read came from one of our theeagues who said that figures are not substantially exaggerated. Others do think it is substantially exaggerated. Guy breaking news related to what is happening with oil prices and the Saudi Arabian economy. Good morning. The worlds egg is exporter of oil actually having to delay biggest exporter of oil action having to delay payments because of oil price for this is the First Time Since 2009 that saudi arabia will not be paying some of its contractors. Renegotiateking to contracts and infrastructure contracts. Some contracts have yet to receive payments for six months. It is taking them six months to receive some of those payments. Thi this as the country is being put in a deficit for the First Time Since 2000 my. Over year to date, brent crude. 43 over thewn last 12 months. Why we are seeing saudi arabia, the worlds biggest exporter, downgrading its overall forecast in terms of payments to contractors. Back to you. Guy we will probably get this later the morning. What contractors are we talking about here . Theres a whole raft of companies in the u. K. And europe. They could all be affected by this. The could be a cash flow story here is well. Toa we will no doubt return this theme around oil and how saudi arabia is coping. Lets continue about china for the moment. Our next yes says wrote could be close to zero for a number of years. Great to see you. Official dataat is not substantially exaggerated. You think growth could be around zero. The headline gdp data for reference only, manufacturing data. Its amazing. They come out two weeks later, never revised, unlike any country anywhere else in the world. Number 6. 9 of the number they first thought of. Rail, freight, electricity production, bank lending, you wind up with chinese gdp at 3 , not 6. 9 . Its going down. Its heading south from there. Guy how do you measure services . That is a good question. That entertain the idea many of the data is manufactured and influenced by policy, they will be susceptible to that kind of influence. We have mere statistics with ,rade data, exports and so on so we try to think about the story on the server side. If it were true that the Service Sector were booming and china and consumer booming in china, i would look for imported consumer goods to be going up. Things like tourism, mercedes are going down in double digits year on year. Im not saying thats decisive about the growth of the sector, but i would think about that is one indicator at these. Anna some of our colleagues raising questions about the resilience of the Service Sector number that were getting an official data, saying we need more details, because he the selloff because of the selloff, that would be expected to have a negative impact on the value added. In terms of getting a handle on services, it seems these numbers dont help that much. No, indeed. This is the story, the official what you are missing is the growth and service side. These things take a lot longer than a month or two to achieve, to rebalance from rapidly industrializing economy to a Service Sector economy. It is not a matter of six years months, but a matter of 10 years or more. Were not seeing those measures. Anna thank you. Update out of asia, chinese story. What we watching for the rest of the week . We are not done with china get. Tomorrow, the chinese president arrives in the u. K. For his first state visit. Wednesday, corporate news, set tosuisse new ceo unveil plans for this was bank. We know hes going to make some changes. What will they look like . Thursday, what do we get . Anna ecb Interest Rates decision. Thoughtsear thir further or is it too early . Guy looking forward to see that, dw spillover effect. ,arry summers, later today around 10 00 a. M. U. K. Time joining us. P. M. , john00 williams, San Francisco fed president. Perhaps set to take the headlines. Its going to be interesting. Were going to go back to the banking sector. Deutsche bank, ceo embarking on the they guest management reorganization of the banking giant in more than a decade. What does that mean . We will find out when we come back. Anna welcome back. Youre watching countdown. Here are the stories you need to know. Gdp rose ahead of estimates, 6. 9 . The slowest quarterly expansion since 2009. Anna the u. K. Rolling out the red carpet for xi jinping as he makes his first state visit to britain. Lunch with Queen Elisabeth at Buckingham Palace before talking trade and investment with david cameron. Chinese Officials Say the value of deals that xi jinping will announce is huge. Guy good to be specific. A typhoon hit the philippines. A 14yearold boy died when his family home collapse. Thousands of Airline Passengers stranded, schools forced to close. Anna Deutsche Bank is clearing the decks under the new ceo. Seen her managers senior managers will leave or be moved to other divisions. There are plans to cut costs. Guy lets get more on that story. We have been tracking some of these big exit. Who is out . Some big heads are being rolled of the moment. People who have been at the bank for 20 years, their entire career, now moving towards the exit. Digging into what is happening in terms of breaking up the Investment Banking unit, the. Ohead of Corporate Banking he has been there since 1998, joined as a credit trader. He resigns today. Meanwhile, head of assets and Oil Management as well. He too will be moving on. The board member overseeing Transaction Banking moves to the exit. The board member for compliance. Criticized,avily the fine they face, 2. 5 billion, potentially manipulation of Interest Rates. Criticized by the regulator in germany. Big shakeup. The 19 member board Group Executive committee is going to be dismembered, and 10 committees also. Anna who is on the way out . Some new names. Trying to promote his own men, people potentially coming on, and women. Head of equities now taking on head of trading in general. His unit has been up 7 over the past year. Clearly doing a strong job. Meanwhile, jeff owen, cohead of Corporate Banking, already coheading over all with colin. He takes the helm when it comes to the Investment Banking area, the new, reformed Investment Bank trading area. He will also be looking over transaction ranking. Prince to head of Asset Management. Interestingly, two women put on the board. And chiefmpliance operating officer. She comes to coo role at the end of the year. Guy clearly all of this has. Ome Historical Context it is happening after we have record finess, from regulators, writedowns, all kinds of aspects that have caused problems for management of the banking unit. Put this in context of how all this relates to that. Road we haverocky seen, in particular this year. Just look at it. Fine,23, 2. 5 million u. K. Regulators being settled with. Ever since then, a difficult his for the man who Investment Banking unit they unveiled a new strategy, they are selling off deutsche postbank. By may, both of them struggling to gain approval at the annual general meeting. In had to stepping down back june, july is when we see john cryan take the helm. Writedowns in excess of 5 billion. The worst performance for the banking years because of this major writedown. At thison is look chart. It sums everything up. This is what is happening to profitability at Investment Banks. This is what is hurting the entire Investment Banking area. Return on equity for 45 top crashing by half. This is a new normal this is a new area. Tougher regulations, more difficult of a profits. Youve got Credit Suisse underling their new strategy on wednesday. Deutsche bank already having to change up the bank and think about how they make it profitable going for it. Guy more on that story a little bit later at a frankfurt. Anna stay with bloomberg. Banking coverage continues with jp morgan jamie dimon. Colleagues in the u. S. Put out a question on twitter asking what should be asked of jamie dimon. Get in touch with us. Guy lets get back to our big stories this morning. For anrg set down exclusive conversation with the finished economy minister. When it comes to the refugee crisis, the eu and turkey need to help more than ever. Had a. Ink we have where opportunities have been missed in the euturkey relationship. Time, we needin each other more than ever. That it is time to revitalize the euturkey relationship. To solve atrying migrant crisis together. New economic and business relations. Anna that was the finished economy minister. Lets go back to the codirector of southern consulting. We have this comment that caroline was taking from the saudis coming delaying payments to contractors on oil slumps. Lets talk about how stretch the saudi budget is by the weakness in the oil price. It is stretched in two directions. Oil prices falling about by half, the biggest change of revenue for the saudi fiscal position. On the other side, outgoings remain large, even in consideration of the large amount of oil revenues coming in. Cohort of large young people who require paying. That liability remains on the books. They are being squeezed in a number of respects. With theen reflected behavior of the sovereign wealth fund. Maybe these delayed payments are part of that. Guy we will come back to you. Thank you very much. Ountdown, then we are starting to get some breaking news coming through. Do we have the data yet . Caroline we are seeing an improved outlook. Theyre beating analyst expectations coming in with four. 6 like for like a growth for their Third Quarter. The market has been expecting 3 . Very much in line for its 2015 forecast which is growth at 4 to 5 for the year. Doingbaby food sales are particularly well. They say they see a moderate rise in main raw materials. Nearly, the cost pressure still building. Nevertheless, bringing in 5. 6 9 billionof euros. They seem to be the chinese consumers are ordering more foreignmade instant formula. A big area of growth has also been the infantry snow sales, up 11 , beating analysts estimates of a 7. 5 gain. They are also seeing a doubledigit growth in china, a bit of a surprise after nestle downgraded its forecast on friday, seeing the share fall on the back of that. The concern was merely china. Anchor metro out with numbers as well. It sees a good christmas business. The center is santa is already in gear. Anchor here are the stories you need to know this morning. Chinas Services Sector standing out. The slowest quarterly expansion. Companies working on Infrastructure Projects have been waiting six month or more payments. The government seeks reserve cash. The First Time Since 2009. Anchor tickets for the new star started to go on sale today, two months before the movie hits u. S. Theaters. The film is expected to be one of the top grossing pictures of the year. Anchor Deutsche Banks coceo heading the biggest shakeup of the year. Walk us through what we are seeing here. Read between the lines. What is happening . Seeing at there same time an overhaul of the management structure, an overhaul of the operating units. Obviously, that will be accompanied by some departures from various highranking bankers at Deutsche Bank. What does this tell us about what we could be expecting in terms of strategy . We have to wait for the details in 10 days time. Some analysts are already saying like klein is making good. They may well be trimming it back. Fan, who is one of the architects, is leaving the business. That is what people are reading out of it. Anchor tell us your interpretation as for reasons why people are leaving and others are moving up. What are they telling you . Nicholas it is a question also of the bank being taken in a different Strategic Direction than these guys would have planned. Managemente previous did suffer their reputation did suffer because there were legal problems at Deutsche Bank. What jumps out at me is the radical changes to the operating units. I think that is going to be pushing several of these guys to say, welcome a i dont agree with the directi