A very good day to you and welcome to countdown. I am manus cranny. Lets get out to caroline. Thirdquarter sales looks as if it is below estimates. Caroline coming in at 17. 4 billion euros. Among 18. 3 billion euros. Many analysts show growth, expecting there could be some weakness. China slowdown. Automotive slowdown and weakness there. Agricultural issues in bzil. Theyre cutting their forecast for the whole of 2015. Something we have already heard from them. This is anissue for them Going Forward amid global headwinds. As we break into the statement, they are saying that is decline in this difficult environment. Special items coming in 1. 6 billion euros. That is down 10 , manus. Activities,d by they are still in the positive. Look at this outlook for 2015. Subdued economy, Oil Price Decline and asset swap at the gasp. These are all burden sales. Youre going to be digging into this with our international correspondent. Manus thank you for laying out those headlines. On the base bit more f story, lets get to hans nichols. Were going to cut the guidance and the burden from the economy and oil. This is what they are saying is going to hit them. Ons it iss a desk a great barometer hans it is a great barometer. It is a pretty good currency play. A big miss on the revenue side coming in some 600 million less. On the other side of the story, they look like they Beat Estimates from 10 million. These numbers are crossing. Outlook change for 2015, they have hinted at that before. Remember they abandoned their 2020 gold. , a greatthis Company German chemical country chemical company. A barometer of what is happening globally. Take a look at some of the facts and figures. Dont just think about chemicals. 113,000 employees globally. We are seeing the numbers. It willst said there eb be about the same as 2014. 1865 is when the company is founded. They are investing in their headquarters. They have been talking about that. We will dig into these numbers throughout the morning. They are good Sales Numbers but they may have been helped by the currency crunch. We will dig into this in see what it really means. Lets talk about novartis. Breaking news in terms of poor earnings. The spring and caroline. Its like it is a miss. 1. 27. Swiss drugmaker being struck by headwinds. This is a company with a lot of exposure to emerging markets. Some weakness is good to filter in. They have had composition, generics coming in. New drugs that have been using patents. There out the unit seeing competition. You see sales toppling. The estimate had been for 12. 6 billion. Oor earnings per share the market wanted more. The market wanted 1. 3. Products didth continue to drive the thirdquarter performance. This is a Company Unveiling new jugs, trying to ensure they keep andd with the pipeline managed to drive through the area of generic competition. Their launch is off to a strong start in the United States. And oneug for them theyre having to plow money into in terms of marketing. Overall, operating income coming into line. Appears to be meeting. Manus as you say, some differences, but both of them kicking off this countdown reporting day. , lets put opinion the asian markets in context. Yvonne, it looks like asia is putting back ahead of the fed. Money going back. A little bit of a risk off. Yvonne a little bit of profit taking. We are seeing across the board. He much a down day in the asiapacific. We are slipping away from that twomonth high. These big pivotal events coming out of the Central Banks this week. You mention the fed, the bank of japan. We have sweden and new zealand meeting this week. Investors weighing in on what is going to happen out of the u. S. And japan. Some economists say if we see the bit if we see the fed pushing rates back to 2016 and the boj stepping up stimulus, that could be positive for equities. Today looking like a red day. Renewed selling of shares after that raise cut that sent a euphoria. It looks like that is fading right now. That is a big improvement from what we have saw desk from what we saw in august. From what we saw in august. Earnings down 1. 10 . That has dragged down on asian stocks and u. S. Futures lower. I do want to mention casino stocks. Of a resort in macau today. Leonardo dicaprio, martin scorsese, going to be there. Even possibly brad pitt. All stocks falling today, especially not go crown. Galaxy entertainment all falling china and macau. They also talk about as jm holdings. Government not doing enough and fast enough to support this turnaround that they want to have. The 16 month casino downturn that we have seen. They are hoping for better infrastructure and transport in the city. Lets look about the boj meeting today. Speculation that there could be a need for further easing. Weve seen the yen strengthening. Isnomists say this decision more of a coin toss. Economists expecting the boj will add stimulus this friday. The boj willng have to adjust its inflation outlook. The boj would have to revise its deadline. Again, less appetite for risk riskier. Youre going to have to get were shot across their to do a little more batting. Thank you so much. A couple of other lines that are coming across, from the afs this basf. , this makes for an interesting reading, they say the economic environment is clouded over in china. These are referring to maximum ok city. Pacity. Mum ok they say the average price of oil, double nickel. 55 this year. Trimming back oil levels. Lets focus in on china. The economy has grabbed the attention of the worlds policymakers. We are expecting a new growth target from beijing. The current official thirdquarter gdp figure, 6. 9 . That is at odds with many of the models in terms of the estimates. They range from 2. 8 . Lets more, lets head over to where malcom scott is standby. This is a great article that you guys have put together. In terms of the brett of estimates. Run me through the reasons for the discrepancy. It is a changing economy. Many of these proxy measures are tied to some of the growth of chinas economy. See freight, some use electricity. They all cap into manufacturing exports. Lets exposed his services. That is the area of chinas economy that is been holding up well. For many in china, the slowdown doesnt feel like a slowdown. Their wages are getting better. Those elements are holding up so far throughout this slowdown and what we are seeing in the real gdp rates. That is a part of the discrepancy. Even there is a whole bunch of these various proxies all suggesting growth may be lower than the headline rate. There is some speculation of our blueberry until it just Bloomberg IntelligenceBloomberg Intelligence may be bias. Manus nobody ever died from a little bit of bias here and thank you very much. For more in terms of what you want to watch. We kicked it off already. What else is in store for us yet go caroline theres going to be plenty of technology to be digesting and oil. Happenedbit of what yesterday in terms of United States trading. S p 500 actually did slip yesterday only. 2 . It was down from 89 week high. Are on course desk from a from a nine week high. 11 from the august low. We are 3 from the alltime high. A little bit of calls for pauls a little bit of cause for pause. Only 3 thought we were lucky for a rate hike it we were likely for a rate hike. Notably, it was technology falling. Check this out, apple dropping 3 . This is on the back of its suppliers faring poorly. Lc trading over here sales and outlook missed. It is a concern when darling semiconductors says it is failing to miss expectations. This is what dragged the share prices 3 lower today. Checking the s p 500 down. We are going to keep a close eye because apple comes out later today after the u. S. Close. Million expected to be sold. Ipads some 10 million. Mac, some 5. 7 million. We are expectings thats we are expecting an uptick in sales. We are expecting an uptick in sales. Twitter is going to be giving out results. Alibaba, at revenues could rise 27 . Where shares down keep it on oil majors. We got bp outlook today in the united kingdom. It is good to be painful when is 50 arice average barrel 50 a barrel. Mental caroline, thank you very much. Well bring you those numbers from bp. Stay with countdown. Weve got exclusives. It reported a strong thirdquarter. The market closed yesterday evening. Bp will report today. Amidst those low oil prices. Sincest by rating february. Could things could desk could things be looking up . That is all coming up next. Manus it is 6 18 in london. 7 18 in frankfurt. These are the stories need to know. Basf thirdquarter sales and profits have missed estimates. Sales came in at 20 sales came in. The company says due to the economy, the Oil Price Decline are likely to burden sales and earnings going into the Fourth Quarter. U. S. Navy warship sailed within 12 miles of the manmade island in the south china sea. The u. S. Is showing it doesnt recognize that the island qualifies for the 12 not quote mile zone on the international 12 not a cold miles jinping by obama and xi next month. They reached a tentative deal to avoid a default tuesday. They will extend the governments borrowing authority. It will include a twoyear deal on spending the agreement would not eliminate the chance of a Government Shutdown if lawmakers cannot resolve disputes i december 11 disputes by december 11. Bp jets off during a brutal time. It is been a 16 month dive. More than 40 billion of this 600 oil0this stoxx index. Lets bring in will kennedy. Not that im going to get you to make a call, or we near the bottom echo near the bottom . Will todays results will be brutal. And crisis. He crash what we hope to see his signs that the brutal costcutting will start feeding through to cash flow and this will be a bottom. Manus they have said 1. 8 billion. You think they need to do looking for more cuts . I think it is an ongoing process. Aim year will see more toward the dividend. Manus that dividend is critical. There are a couple of gray lines. Dividender risk of the didnt shell dividend. Will if Oil Prices Stay at its level. It will be a different story. Manus in terms of writedowns, as we look at the global writedowns, bp sets the tenor. Where going to expect more. Will this is something will keep track of. Manus my favorite graphic. We couldve hit the bottom. These are the ratings on some of the major stocks. Gotgot to a towel you total. Therting a buy rating is highest this year. Well will when you got these stocks yielding 7 and the ceo says we will not cut the dividend at a zero interest rate. Manus [indiscernible] will kennedy, thank you very much. You want to stay with bloomberg because we are going to look at all of the oil majors. We are to look behind those headline numbers when we get the bp results. That will be at 7 00 london time. It 00 a. M. In frankfurt. 8 00ng the tone and a. M. And frank for it. Setting the tone and tenor. Friday, it is over to exxon. U. K. , let us refocus. Economic growth probably slowed in the Third Quarter. The pace of expansion should still be sufficient to see the margin of slack continue to narrow. Strategy,f u. K. Rate john wraith. Welcome to the show. I hear people cry why are they focused on the retrospective number. Construction under pressure. The yen and the yang are not going to read. Im spending. Construction is slowed here manufacturing is slowed. There is a lot of Economic Data conflicting. Isk at the u. S. , what number very strong. The next and comes along and tells you something different. Explains why policymakers in the bestperforming economies is still struggling with whether the fund may be approaching or they can start to type monetary policy. Mental the consistency of the data is going to be critical. Manus the consistency of the data is going to be critical here it critical. What is the wage data telling you . Are we at that point . John we are. Because inflation is very low, nominal earnings are healthy enough therefore real earnings look very strong. Ofare about to see a specter disinflation fadeaway. Manus you think that is going to drop out . John it looks like it. Go through the Fourth Quarter of this year in terms of data, you should start to see it unwind. Isinflation picks up, that what we expect to see. The big question is whether wages go with it. Think we willen i have a different conversation within six months time. It could start to seek rate hikes come into focus. We need inflation to pick up and see wages go with it. Echo we need to get the manus we need to market perspective. Ive prepared a very special graphic. Have a look at this. It is the hawk and the dub spirit. What does it take to move the doves. And the what does it take to move the rates echo lets the rates . Lets take a look at the graphic. Flipflop. He gives mark carney a good reputation. He is the most hawkish. Ian mccafferty is the dove to end all dumps. Move the it take to pendulum of the doves and hawks. John we have seen the dovish members have gone into the center ground. Theyre done so because inflation has been week on the headline number. Are a lotause there of uncertainties about what is going on, whether it is in the eurozone or china. What it is going to take is evidence that inflation has turned the corner and started to pick up. If earnings go with it and therefore there is a real picture of the uks labor significantly tying significantly. If you get into that position, some of those Committee Members that are setting of the fence are going to Start Talking and more straightforward terms. The debate is clearly down the middle. Manus john wraith, head of rates at ubs. We will talk novartis after the break. Manus a very good morning to you. 6 30 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Slumped in oil prices. The earnings and sales are not likely to be lower than last year. That came as basf reported a thirdquarter that missed analysts expectations. Boy in Northern Island has been arrested in connection with the hack attack. The british internet advisor provider was hit last week. Said banking information information banking information may have been stolen. Roy says he is the best candidate to win the candidate 45 in previous general elections. Ok, lets get across to eve on man for a check in on asian markets across to yvonne man n. Weve got the bank of japan at the end of the week as well. Yvonne a lot of the Central Bank Policy going to be weighing on investors. Ive got to talk about china in the last 30 minutes. We have seen a recovery here. We are seeing shares down. 5 . , nearly 2. 8 ring earlier after the lunch break. We see the shanghai composite above 3004 to 23 right now. 3004 to 23. It is interesting, because we heard from mark mobius, talking about these technology companies. This push to tech, consumer. That is going to be producing a more sustainable expansion into the economy. Sure that iss not going to work in the equity markets. Many of the stock by the way since for some of bite companies, a little too expensive. You look at the china index which is seen as a proxy, the times more incentive than what we see in the shanghai composite. 41 times rejected earnings. 41 times projected earnings. Valuations are surging again. Day,. 9 down. Overall, we continue to see a sea of red. Traders keeping ahead. Sweden and new zealand meeting later on this week. New zealand, one of the few green markets here. Up on 5 . They are close to a record here at to a record. Alibaba, mention because earnings are going to be coming out later in the u. S. Today. Analysts seemed to be more optimistic about the company, saying things look to be turning around. Maybe a bounce back from this bottom. 33 since september 29. They saw the price plunged 60 below the ipo price. They are expecting revenue could be 27 growth. For mobileis push monetization. People are moving toward smartphones for shopping. That could be helping. As well as the expansion into rural areas. Spend their office in london as well. Opening officers in france and germany. Manus, back to you. Manus yvonne, inc. You very much. Thank you very much. Breaking news about a be. Caroline this is been on the cards for a little while. A nationalized lender, a dutch lender here it it upgraded its financial targets. Bigger than expected. 10 to 13 . That is the measure of its overall capital rebuffed minutes. Set to go back to the public hands. We understand the ipo is going to be held in amsterdam. In thed be started Fourth Quarter. They have been talking about the fact this deal was lined up for the Fourth Quarter. He himself, financial leader for the dutch. Really is an area that could be a success story. The biggest ipo in years. Since 2008 even. We understand according to reports that in september, they were out free marketing this particular deal. We could see more share sales coming our way in europe. Manus caroline, thank you very much. Still with us, and of u. K. Rates strategy at ubs is john wraith. We have not finish the discussion around the u. K. And rates. Markets have moved aggressively as to the First Quarter of 2017. We have trimmed that back. Still, lets have a look at this. This is the view of where we are on rates potential rate hikes. In market still not pricing a full rate hike by december of next year. Is. 65. Oint it is still not there. I know we have is game every year. Policymakers take a little bit longer to move their forecasts. This is a realtime market as he goes with the data. This is gone a bit too far. Domestic eta is holding up pretty well. We get gdp today. A little bit softer than the second quarter. Still perfectly strong. The labor markets getting stronger. I rate hike should not be more than a year away frankly. There are these external issues. The market has made its mind up. Circumstances will dictate whether it is become to defensive or not. Medical how do you look at the u. K. Rate market because you got u. K. Rates trading over germany. Is there more momentum . John there could be. When talking about the 10 year spread. One of the drivers is what is going on in the eurozone. After the ecb meeting recently, it seems clear they are likely to expand on the back end of this year. Ellis thinks take a significant turn for the better. That raises expectation of heavy essential bank buying of european government bonds. That is what makes them underperform. The prospects of the u. K. Are seemingly very detached from the eurozone. In the mediumterm,