Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20151210 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown December 10, 2015

It is six blocks here in london. The slight tangentially to that, we have had news overnight on australian jobs. The biggest monthly back to back jobs gain we have seen almost 28 years. You have to go back to 1988 to find a period as strong for the australian economy. That pushed the Australian Dollar a bit higher overnight. Some people questioning the data, of course. 71,400 jobs were created, economists forecast a drop of just 10,000. Manus this is the dollar rand trading, if youre on holiday or getting on the plane, you will have a river. It is at a record low, certainly not for good reason. He fired his finance minister. Story says it takes the country one step closer to junk. The rand, at one juncture and training, in a spokesman that back. Easy the biggest declin since theince 2011, and forecast is is the slowest rates in 2000 hundred the dollarrand, one of the conversations we have here today. Anna we are getting investor updates from glencore. This is one of the Mining Companies so under pressure in 2015. They are estimating that the net 18 target is between billion in 19 billion by the end of 2016. Theyre talking about remaining free of cash flow, and lower price levels, giving us an update on the 2015 cap fx. They have been cutting back on Capital Spending once again. There seem further reductions in capital expenditures. Cash one of the issues is flow. They will remain comfortably free, cash flow positive. The original target was a 10 billion reduction, in terms of the debt. Ryan chilcote is here to join us on the story. They had around 30 billion in the headline, i believe. They are guarding that moore, a small amount. Anna before they scrapped the dividend, sales are still the big deal talking about the agricultural unit. But the more on the story, more on that as because the morning with ryan. Let us get the first world news with nejra. Nejra it is the Central Banks first cut this year, it should be enough to return inflation to its 2 target. The dollar surged on the news. Meanwhile, the aussie dollar surged after smashing expectations once again. Show more than 71,000 people found work in december. Economists had expected a drop of 10,000. That brings an down to 5. 8 . The South African rand plunged after the minister fired his finance minister. It hit a record low. Clashedoing minister with some government colleagues over pay increases for workers, proposals to build a Nuclear Power industry, and plans to expand the state airline. And Bloomberg Politics survey shows two thirds of likely voters favor Donald Trumps call to temporarily banned muslims from entering the u. S. More than one third say make the more likely to vote for him. That news came after 37 is really lawmakers demand that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancel of meeting with donald trump read the Financial Services industry fell about one third in december, amid broader economic uncertainty. That is according to an reporting from rid banks from to jpmorgan are cutting to shore up capital. For more on these stories and others, head to the bloomberg terminal. Manus lets get a roundup on the markets in asia, emerging markets very much in focus. Heidi is standing by for us. Looking a bit better than yesterday, not saying a lot given the week that we have really had here in asia. Some interesting moves in the last 20 minutes or so. Red ini falling into the the last hour of that session. They are managing to finish up 2 10 of 1 , after really struggling on the flat line. The bank of Korea Holding unchanged, staying at 1. 5 as predicted. Surging toad the yen the strong as level in three months, we really saw that way across exporters. Tech stocks and consumers bearing the brunt of the selloff. Interestingly, the mega jobs number is not helping sentiment when it comes to debate. Essentially, huge numbers coming the reserve bank of australia will be holding off on any stimulus. It is interesting, though, because we had a few gains. It has been in that basic minus space. We see the names really badly thought of today, on the relief rally. 11 , these names have been so badly hit. Rio tinto staging a bit of a recovery. We are seeing profittaking, it has been sold off. That has been concerned to be overdone. I just want to show you that leg up when it comes to the aussie dollar. That is where he had that jobs number drop, sitting at 72. 83. Central banks are taking Center States today, as we just heard, the new zealand bank is cutting rates. The Swiss National bank and ounces a day, followed by the bank of england and new. Manus more on those with Richard Jones and just a moment. But first, let us head down to sydney for the latest on what the kiwis. Was this a hawkish cut, so to speak . Let us get it all in perspective now. We have Ian Macdonald with us. Ian yes, good morning. We obviously had a 25 basis point Interest Rate cut. It was what was expected. What was not expected was Graham Wheeler saying with that cut in place, he now believes that inflation would return to the midpoint of his target. And traders took that as an indication that the cycle is over. And they probably brought the kiwi, something the central bank of new zealand does not want. Anna do you think Graham Wheeler is overconfident about his expectations, inflation is going to get back to the target range the midpoint of 2 . Central banks around the world grappling with this problem, of course. Ian you are exactly right. We know global inflation pressures are almost nowhere to be seen. Interestingly enough, the Graham Wheeler forecast midpoint will not be reached until the end of 2017. That is two years away, and he seems quite confident that will happen. Quite a few banks do not believe that the current Interest Rate setting will happen, but quite a few commercial banks in new zealand are forecasting further rate cuts, despite what mr. Wheeler says. Manus ian, thank you very much. Giving us the lowdown from new zealands central bank. Anna the bank of england also in the frame today, with a decision not going to change the Interest Rates, but the minutes will be interesting. What can we expect a day . Theus continue conversation, what are you expecting from the boe . What is the broader picture, what we look for . I think the message from the bank of england this month will be similar to the message we got last month from them. They voiced concerns about the strength of sterling last time. And i think it will be happy with the fact that the eurozone Exchange Rate has gone up. And i think they will not want to be too hawkish to reverse that trend. I dont think they want the pound of strengthening from your. Ideally, they probably would like Great Expectations to be a bit more hawkish than they are now. Nice sequence a in terms of what is happening with the rate expectation here in the u k in certainly, it is back september that there was a 25 basis point hike, will he in and what hundred percent back in september. Sohas changed from the ecb, it is moving. The bank of england will be happy with that sequencing. A novemberodds of 2015 rate rise were considerably lower than they are now, it is not ideal. They probably would still like a high price by the end of next you. But it is all about tradeoffs. Thei think there will be sterling Exchange Rate versus where the euro is now. Anna sarah hewin joins us, you think the bank of england is a bit more happy now, where the pound is trading . Does that make their prospect of inflation a little bit more realizable . I think so. It is certainly something they raised at the time of their last meeting and report. They see that wages are accelerating. I think some of that will be offset by strong productivity gains. But they definitely made quite a lot of noise about the strength of sterling, the impact of strong sterling on imported inflation, and the downward pressure that could bring, in terms of making it more difficult for them to push inflation back to the 2 target over the mediumterm. Manus there was another Central Bank Meeting today, much smaller cohort. It is the swiss. I think what is fascinating your, you have a look at the 08. 34. Wiss trading at 1 richard, they were expected to do more. In the market was presuming the swiss would have to go for another lump off the deposit rate, another 25 basis points. But they have been saved. Richard have they, though . If you ask any central banker whether the swiss is overvalued, you get a very quick and sharp answer. It is massively overvalued. I just think, you know, at 120 they were not happy. They will not be happy at 108. They think the frank is too strong. The market is priced out any move, the ecb did a bit of a favor last week. But this did not ease policy. Look at the riskreward, there will be some traders that senate might go today. Anna sarah, what you make of this today . I know that your bank has been suggesting that some of the damage that could be seen as a result of the big appreciation we saw on the swiss franc did not come to pass in the economy, it was more resilient than maybe it could have been. Sarah i think that has been the surprise up until recently. What we are seeing now is there are signs that the domestic economy is starting to come under some strain. We have seen some of the survey easing of retail sales, somewhat weaker. Gdp relatively subdued. I think that there are some concerns now that, as well as relatively weak selloff sectors, activity domestically anna this is a domestic problem. Sarah we have deep deflation of the moment, and part of that has to do with oil prices with the strength of the currency. Manus what is the point of Central Banks still continuing to target inflation . There was a lovely article yesterday on the terminal. New zealand was the first back in the 90s to target inflation. The reality of it is monday are all promising that were going to get back to trend. They have had to step back from these targets many, many times. What is realistic about getting to 2 . Did anybody get there, who will it be, and when will they do it . ; some Central Banks will get there pretty quickly. At the headline level, all it takes is a slight pickup in energy prices, base effects will kick in. That is not what we are seeing at the moment. But the main problem for Central Banks is what is happening to core inflation . You have certainly got some countries that are still ll struggling with very low price increases. Nks getntral bak worried about people changing their behavior. I dont think we are seeing that in many countries yet, or any countries indeed. What they feel they need to have that inflation target so that, eventually, they do get back up. Manus i am curious as to who will run that last long first. 2 . getting to i think the United States and the United Kingdom will get there sooner than the rest. Hewin stays with us longer. Thank you to richard. Manus let us tell you what is on the agenda, we get the Rate Decision from the Swiss National bank. We will also be speaking to the board of governors like this morning. Anna then the extended Volkswagen Press conference, the first since the emissions trading scandal. After the shares are at an alltime low, what can we expect from glencore . We will have some of the details. Ryan chilcote has more. Anna welcome back, coming up to 19 minutes past the hour. Here is nejra;. Glencore or cut debt by the end of toys 16, that is from a previous goal in the low 20s. The troubled miner has been hit hard, losing 72 of its value so far this year. By the swisseed to hotel brands for about 2. 9 billion in shares and cash. It is the Biggest Hotel operator in europe, buying the company from a group that includes billionaires. As sub has raised visa raise money to finance the 23 billion takeover. It is the fourth largest corporate Debt Offering this year. Ceo will hold his first News Conference since the emissions scandal broke. He will brief reporters on the status of the investigation into cheating. For more on these stories and others, check the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Manus let us get a bit more, i can get the words of read i got so excited that ryan has the details on glencore. Runs through the top line, how far along are they . What are the top lines . Ryan three important points. In terms of Debt Reduction, we have learned they wanted to cut 10 million. They announced this morning in the statement they have artie 8. 7. D in a while they were seeking to reduce the debt load to the load 21 billion, from 30 billion the biggest debt load in the entire industry now they say but he can employ 16 they should be able to cut it somewhere to 19 billion. They are being a bit more aggressive. Finally, they said that this year, while they had forecasted could shavethey more off of that, as will read in a nutshell, they say in terms of the Balance Sheet and cash flow, they expect that todays stock prices should have at least 2 billion in cash flow. This is really a dance with the funding cost. Whether they get cut from Investment Grade to john, how much that means in terms of how much they will have to pay to service the debt, you look at the statement today. It is a bit more aggressive than what people would have been anticipating, coming into this morning. Anna you wonder what that then does to the share price, any of the short position around the shares . Glencore, the short position on those continue to rise, perhaps suggesting that could be misery ahead. Ryan it is interesting. Youre exactly right. Were talking to mark elliott, an analyst at invest tech. He was saying do not be so quick to sort of count out ivan. Remember, this is the analyst manus they have the torch paper. Yet, he was saying i would not be shorting glencore going into today. The reason why people short stocks like this is pretty straightforward, they go right to the debt and say, huge debt load . I was short that. It is the same reason why if you look at cds for both anglo and glencore, yes, exactly. In both cases, people are very concerned about the debt load. Maybe this be a surprise on the upside, in the sense that maybe ivan will be delivering more than people thought. There are a couple of unknowns. We do not hear about asset sales specifically. There is a lot of talk about selling their agricultural unit, for theres nothing in the statement about that. I would not say that the statement itself removes all the questions. We will have a Conference Call with investors at 8 30. We will look for more information. But it is so hard to shortness company to begin with. The biggest shareholders are actually directors, they do not want to let the share the short. Manus you get your directors of the board that actually have major financial interest in terms of your stock. Anna it is not look good. Ryan, thank you. Ryan nor does it help your share price. Senioreter is a independent nonexecutive and glencore. We should say that. Manus sarah is still with us. You hear stories about this, in terms of the commodity crunch. And here is the actual impact, in terms of the companies. And in termsrowth, of the outlook for 2016, has for metals,e nadir miners . Sarah looking ahead to next year, we are not expecting to see a big boom in activity. If anything, Global Growth will be about the same next year as this. Having said that, of course, on the commodity cycle we have seen supplies increasingly becoming constrained, as you get mines closing on the nonopec production side. Weve seen a big dropoff in energy, oil and gas. At the same time, demand is still there. We are seeing import growth, even in china people are building. Now, probably in our view towards the end of the year, we will see this demandsupply balance in a better place, underpinning a pickup in prices. But we are not expecting anything anytime soon. Anna all of this could move around with the fed, as well. I know some of the recent notes around commodities, one of your colleagues was talking about being disappointed about the size and timing, meaning that the complex is quite vulnerable to a selloff around what the fed does. What do you expect from the fed . It is interesting to me youre expecting them to height, as many are. Chance, then you expect to cut next year. Explain that to us . Sarah if we are looking at cycles for the u. S. Economy, we are a long way into an upswing. The recovery started in june of 2009. We are already beyond this. Exactly, there is a very strong signal for the economy. Of course, that is why the fed, we think, will raise rates next week. But there are signs of a maturing economy, as will read on the labor market side, on the investment market side, on the consumption side, all of these factors shoring up activity. At the moment, we think this time next year, a lot of that will fade. And we could be vulnerable to a negative quarter for u. S. Activity. And so we think the fed will raise rates next week. In march, then we will pause and see inflation coming back. It will not be a threat anytime soon. But a cut is highly likely. Done, and then a cup. Manus sarah hewin. And thanks to ryan chilcote. Anna the South African currencies suffered its worst day in years, after they fire the finance minister. We will be in south africa for update during the program. Stay with us. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every

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