Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160614 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets June 14, 2016

Take a look at volatility index. Off just by a little less than that. Row about four days in a with that weighing in on everyone. On june 23. Take a look at what is happening with the imap function on bloomberg. You see financials are among down the most by 2 here. Of the red with telik medications up by only one third of 1 here. What will happen with telecoms right now, i want to talk about what will happen with the position today. Have apect that will negative on telecoms. Interesting we are seeing a positive for at t as well as verizon. At t said rising looks forward to the Supreme Court appeal of todays decision for many shouted rules. Investors are saying they will try to push back against this. Google down by. 5 . It would actually help google there. Take a look at what is happening with financials. Financials are the biggest laggard now. It is down 16 here. Down 5 . What is going on in commodities and currencies . Falling in and nymex tandem with equities. That is despite what is happening with the news coming up, the International Energy association. Disappearing faster than expected, they will see supply and demand almost balanced by this time next year. Nymex crude is falling down 1 right now. This is up by. 5 . I thought it would be falling. , riskier currencies. David lets get a check of the headlines. Mark crumpton. Angle he rejecting insistence from republicans that the United States should describe terrorists who happen to be muslim as radical islamists. Following a meeting at the Treasury Department with security advisers, they would validate the Islamic State that america is at war with the entire state. We acted out of fear and we came to regret it. We have seen our government miss treat our fellow citizens. It has been a shameful part of our history. Mark in response, donald trump claims toesident know our enemy and yet he continues to prioritize our enemy over our allies and for that matter the american people. He continued shooter in the orlando, florida, massacre, even though he had been investigated twice by the fbi, was not on the nofly list he was taken off the list because agents had no evidence he was a danger. The team called 911 during the spree and swore allegiance to the Islamic State. Bernie sanders is meeting with Senate Democrats and plans to up date his supporters thursday night in the hometown of vermont. Sanders said in an email he would hold an online town hall about what is next for the campaign. The vermont senator is meeting with Hillary Clinton tonight. I would end with voting in the district of columbia. It is just nine days before the u. K. Votes whether to leave the European Union and five new polls show the leave campaign is running ahead. The lead anywhere from 17 points. Remainingow to supporters, the biggest selling newspaper in the u. K. Is backing the grexit. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. David, back to you. David the federal open market committee, we are expecting a decision tomorrow afternoon. Lets bring in carl, the chief economics economist. Let me start by asking you what you expect to come out of this . Obviously no rate action at the june meeting. Nonetheless, this was a very important platform to set the tone for the rest of the year. We look at what has changed over the course of last month, it is really one just report. One just report ahead of the july meeting, these could very much be back in play. Suspect that janet yellen would take a somewhat tough or ,ess than dovish tone especially given the market not even pricing in the rate increase all the way up through february of last year. If she comes out dovish, reinforcing the market view. Instead, i think she will challenge that without explicitly staking her claim in july but seeing being somewhat dismissive of the last jobs report, highlighting good things happening in the economy and very much leaving two rate hikes as a possibility. I almost forgot about it. Like what happened . You exclude the hike in gas prices, it seems like most of the other data is pretty hawkish, except for the jobs report. What is going on here . The numbers have slipped a little bit. Nonetheless, if you look at the rear real metrics of much. Vity, it is not say q1 is pretty lousy. Remember back to the last fed statement, they honed in on house income creation and Consumer Spending. We are seeing decent house, house income numbers. Consumers are rising to the occasion to lift the economy out of the soft patch in q1. Up 2. 8, probably up north of 1 in the provision. Sales, it on retail is in the vicinity of 2. 5 to 3 . The feds fullyear growth forecast very much can remain intact. They are not the last minutes not mentioned hardly at all. To what degree are you weighing it at all . Showing aest news is favor and excessive vote, maybe changes, but they have been scaling back their level of concern over global and financial risks, a prominent concern since the first meeting of the year. Betty words we will be looking for are what . What if they come out and say the same thing as the prior meeting . Is that a nonrecognition . Mariotti is changes they have to make to growth assessment. The employment numbers have changed a bit, Consumer Spending looks to be on stronger footing. If they purely make the adjustments to reconcile with reported economic data, i think maybe people would be surprised by the, not hawkishness, but the stern tone where the fed really signals they are not rattled by the jobs report and they are looking beyond that. Looking at how often inflation is mentioned in these statements, as we move toward this, it is a diminishment. They would not like to be as big. At the you are looking wrong indicator or you have to be focused on the realtime metrics of an inactivity, job creation, and economic output. It is a lagging indicator. If you are watching a portion of it now, really telling you what happened in the economy a yearandahalf ago. Betty is it true though that the risk, once you get above that number, is there a higher risk of inflation . And then you have got to scramble a tight policy . Isnt that the theory . The fed is sensitive to the fact that it could become a selffulfilling prophecy. If you overshoot a little bit, fine. If you overshoot by a lot, maybe the fed would welcome it at this point and it would be harder to rain and ultimately. The fed has plenty of ammunition. When the time comes, they can sell on the balance sheet. The risks are still skewed to word the downside. Offsetnot have a lot to policy mistakes and that is why they have to tread very carefully. It is even more important isorrow because yellen inclined to sound dovish and she has to walk a little bit of a hawkish walk tomorrow. David you had Janet Yellens speech at harvard alluding to the fact they were ready. You have had fed residents out in preparing the market. What does it say about the communication strategy . We get a bad jobs report. Does it throw more disarray into that . The fact that voters and and did their out part to realign the expectation tells you how serious the fed is about doing this. They are not just going to throw the credibility away. It tells you there was a concerted effort and they have a strong inclination to get rates moving. Thank you, carl. Markets, on bloomberg among three additional buyout groups for yahoo we will tell you who the number who the other two are. Coming up next. David lets turn to the bidding war in yahoo right now. The other two are Advent International and Sycamore Partners and Capital Management and people familiar with the matter. Set the stage there, who is in the final round. Are any of those surprising to you . Not because you may have heard of them, they had not been reported before. It is a little unusual. Meaning they are there still. Along with advance and tpg, less if you believe in yahoo longterm, they may have the most longterm value. That is what tpg is known to do. When you look at what is on the block here, are they looking at Different Things . How closely aligned are their bids with valuation . This is a key point and we are at the home stretch. It has slowed down recently. Final rounds this month, it was pushed back early and mid july. The reason it was pushed back his almost all of these bids are not apple to apple. Bidders want to buy all of the real estate. Verizonss was for none of the real it take. Maybe some of the real statement but not all of it. And saying by point all right, what is it good for, what is it worth, does it make sense to sell some separately but they monetize more for that . That takes a long time. A final round of due diligence. Kids are apple to apple david the range of valuations not quite what yahoo was hoping for. Between 8 billion, that is coming down a little bit. That said, the price tends to go up the closer you get to the deadline for a coveted asset. There are enough bidders that yahoo is somewhat coveted. I would imagine it would be closer to six. Diligence at this point. Do we see a pity were in pt here, it is a great question. Yahoo is a beleaguered asset. War breakwild bidding out in the asset here you have at t and verizon still here. I have said this all along. Verizon will buy yahoo it could be in a length of, there are a bunch of bidders to get this to the point where yahoo is comfortable selling it to verizon. Will verizon via to that price . If yes, they win. David two types of bidders here. Dan gilbert, lest we forget. Does either have an edge going into this . Verizon should have the edge none of the private equity firms have synergy. Almost by definition, they are turnaround candidates. Would be replicating the aol purchase with yahoo it seems to me verizon not only has the resources but also the synergy capability to offer the highest price. Thank you. Covering this story very closely. Ahead, shares of facebook up 10 this year. We will explore that next. David the dow is down. 4 . The s p 500 is down one third of 1 . Is down really struggling this afternoon. Policymakers meet the Federal Reserve and washington, d. C. Following her decision on Interest Rates tomorrow and washington, d. C. Will also have live coverage on Bloomberg Radio and available at bloomberg. Com. Imap on bloomberg here. Just the sectors changing. Financials are down 1. 5 . , telecom is the leader here, the event brings together leaders of the world to business. Bill clinton was asked what can be done to get Economic Growth going. We had flat wages declining income. But then we had very high Interest Rates for stifling growth. Now we have Interest Rates growing for inflation. Far from growth. So we still need more public investment. We needed Infrastructure Program which should claim energy. We need to double down on our whichment on technology, has kept our country strong. Billion of your money, the human genome or you can do it for less than 1000 now. Billion in200 economic benefits. Pretty good return on investment. The first 500 million with newt gingrich, on nanotechnology. Kentucky. N eastern washed undergraduates making , doing a lot of what these communications, 400 million. Undergraduates right at the base of the appellations, making these powered by Computing Power transmitted to a box. You get a big rate of return on that. We need to emphasize that. Need to stop screaming at each other and demonizing each other and figure out how to do it. Still ahead on bloomberg markets, we will go to the Morningstar Investor conference in chicago. Talking to the manager of the templeton global bond fund. U. S. Planning for higher Interest Rates this year . Special coverage of it here on bloomberg tv and Bloomberg Radio tomorrow after that meeting concludes. Scarlet lets begin with a check of the headlines on bloomberg first solar news with Mark Crumpton at the news desk. President obama been with a National Security council and got an update against the Islamic State. The president was also briefed he investigation president obama we do not have any information to indicate that the killer. Cted the killer took in extremist information and propaganda over the internet. To have been an angry, disturbed, unstable young man who became radicalized. Mark the white house described this as lone wolf attacks. France while law and calls this an act of terrorism. Claiming allegiance to Islamic State stabbed two Police Officials to death at their home. The attacker was killed after a threehour standoff with police. They had a list of other targets including journalistss, rappers, and public officials. Russian government hackers penetrated the Computer Network of the Democratic National committee according to the washington post, which sites dnc officials. The insurers gained access to the entire database of Opposition Research on donald trump at Hillary Clinton reportedly target by russian spies as were the computers of some gop Political Action committees. House Speaker Paul Ryan unveiled a republican plan to roll back government regulations. Paul ryan wants to scale back the doddfrank Financial Regulation law, expand Energy Reduction on federal land and losses against businesses. The agenda needs releasing to unify republicans before novembers election. News powered by more than. Wice 400 journalists back to you. Scarlet the stock market getting ready to close in under 30 minutes with the latest from abigail doolittle. The nasdaq is down slightly at this time. Really well off the lows. Spending much of the session bouncing around in the red. It will be the fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak since the end of april, helping to create a ripoff feeling the twoyear chart, we see the nasdaq in a sideways range in much of that time. Aat makes the range perhaps bit more bearish, the last three ranges within the big range are a series of lower lows. The last two broke down to august lows and the current congestion could take the nasdaq right down to those lows. Timeuld be in for a long to we will have to watch and see. One stock that suggests this could happen, microsoft in the index now down six days in a row. Investors are digesting the recently announced acquisition of linked in. Saying the acquisition failing to address the largest balance of developments. 25 , it would probably require weakness in the indexs largest number waiting. Investors in ago , Worldwide Developers conference after they gave refreshes on the mac and a few other products there. One back downand to this years lows, biotech, we cfo ine index up, washington did earlier speak at the conference. Perhaps something was said there that investors are not quite taking in a bullish manner. Scarlet all right. Thank you so much, reporting live from the nasdaq. We were just talking about the fed meeting earlier this hour in the u. S. And around the world are the huge topic for the next guest. Lets head back to the Investor Conference in chicago. Joined by michael, chief investment officer. Take it away. Vonnie thank you. Investing in the bond market. Very happy to have him do a tour of the world. Against it going higher and that has not happened. For right now, why are you still positioned against what is happening in the united dates . Not believeat we do the economy is in that bad of shape. Some of the preceding years, crisis,to the financial we do not see the economy as on the prep space of a recession. We actually see inflationary trends rising and we hope it reaches 3 by earlier next year. Pushing yields confident the fed gets behind the curve, that and also move yields higher. Partially dedicated on oil going higher, but to what level . Below continuing to fall 30. Quickly get to as early as next year. We bring met time forward and extend the magnitude. It is really just taking away the inflationary impact and then pricing the inflation on a tight labor market, on a housing market, service actors, then you look at the core inflation and has steadily been rising above 2 . Vonnie the markets keep pushing out rate increases. Globally as much as what they are telling her. The engagementee changing this in the next several months . I said, either the fed acknowledges the inflation to normalize more consistently with the economy, or at some point, the markets will do that for them. They cannot move short rates but they can move longer rates. Vonnie at what point do we see that this year . Probably when we get inflation at the end of the year. Nothingabove 50 but much beyond that. . E will see those bewe are not saying it would a runaway inflation, but we are making a statement we are not in than in an inflation. Vonnie ok. In that case, your positioned along u. S. Interest rates, longer and. Short Interest Rates. Vonnie lets now move beyond the United States. There have been several stories recently about how the china market is growing. Included. You are not sure of that story yet . Lets we are very interested in china because what happens affects the world. For a long time, we have been calling for a two speed economy in the Old Industrial sector, part of the economy surging in parts of the consumer and surging investor growth, balancing out to prevent a hard landing. That is the core macro view. Of financial markets, it is probably a little early coming into the

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