Control regime. House Speaker Paul Ryan is set benot speak not considering any major changes to the house care Gop Health Care bill as it stands. Showed the jump in the uninsured that was expected. Expecting that, that kind of jump in uninsured and house Speaker Paul Ryan not expect not considering any major changes. Mark 27 eu members without the key without the u. K. Set to look at june 20 for a meeting to authorize brexit talks. The u. K. May have to wait until june. So signals the eu, fascinating as we discussed when theresa may is likely to trigger article 15 article 50. Day. E down for the first Oil Companies are falling down by 1. 6 . Saudi arabias oil output gaining in february over january levels. Falling as down, much as 8 10 of 1 , the biggest drop since february in february. Prime minister may cannot trigger brexit. She is on target to trigger it by the end of the month. Game thate guessing takes place. Has a 115 call for the second quarter, as does hsbc and rbc. Investor Confidence Survey rising less than it less than anticipated. Political uncertainty weighing on europes biggest economy, ahead of the dutch election, and the french election, rising risks causing uncertainty among investors. Predicted to pick up in the rest of 2017, as slumping factory orders in january highlight the risk to the outlook for the economy. While shares of European Companies have been shooting up this year, the euro stocks 50 climbing to a 15 month high on friday, wages on dividends have been lagging behind. Futures betting on the euro stocks 50 index payout for trading at the lowest level since january the 20 january relative to the benchmark. This is what this chart tells us dividendsncludes could be at risk if Marine Le Pen wins frances president ial election. Julie still looking negative in the u. S. , but not as negative as earlier. Companies like nike and walmart are helping limit the losses in the dow even as the s p and nasdaq fall further. I want to show you some of the movers we have not hit on. , a of them is money gram Money Transfer company that is now the subject of a takeover battle. By 24 at the moment after he got a competing bid from a Company Called euronet worldwide. Kansas,it is based in not a European Company at all and those shares are up by about 1 . Money gram had gotten a bid from alibaba and this offer from euro that is 15 higher. Higher. Et is 15 in the deal arena we are looking at citrix systems. These shares spiked on reports that it had hired advisers to look into a possible sale. Scherzer coming down today as analysts are saying that the companys week forecast could put a cap on any kind of offer. We will be continuing to watch that situation. Oil continues to be a big mover after saudi arabia said it was trimming its Oil Production cut a plan cut up plan. That is not supposed to be see gate but shares are apparently but as well seagate, shares are apparently down as well. Is according to eu officials, that would erode the time for minister may has to land a deal. Be well, she has landed a victory, element approving her brexit bill, her saying that is en route to royal approval. We remain on track with a timetable i set out to its months ago. I will return to this house before the end of this month to notify when i have only triggered article 50 and begun the process through which the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. Mark lets get over to westminster. Interesting developments. Looking at that june 20 meeting to authorize brexit talks. That is a long gap. That is a couple of months. it is interesting because we heard that the eu would likely respond within 48 hours of theresa may triggering article 50. If may washat, but to trigger article 50 by the end of this month, we could see a meeting called by may with other eu countries. That signal of june is interesting, but in terms of when theresa may is likely to trickle article 50 trigger article 50 as she stays committed to that timeline of triggering it by the end of this month. She was not any more specific than that, but bloomberg has been told that the end of the month is still on track and one official said that the most likely dates are between march 27 and march 30. There are a number of things happening then, the dutch elections tomorrow, the Scottish NationalParty Conference on march 17 and the celebration of the anniversary of the eu founding treaty on march 25, which theresa may does not want to get in the way of. March 26 is a sunday, 31st parliament goes into recess. As you said, threes amazing she is expecting royal assent for her bill in the coming days which would form it into law and this bill is going through unchanged. With noing through amendments because the house of commons rejected the amendment proposed by the house of lords. Ink starting brexit talks june would allow the eu to move on from the potential banana skin that is different french residential election. The other constitutional headache that Prime Minister may faces is potentially another or noth referendum, because today in parliament, which he spoke in the house of commons, she almost dismissed the idea. When she spoke in the house of commons, she almost dismissed the idea. What we heard yesterday was from the first minister, saying she will next week asked permission for the second referendum. Theresa may does need to give her permission for this. Back in september 2014 with the first referendum, the scots voted 55 to 45 to remain in the u k, but a lot has changed since then, not least of course brexit because scotland voted to remain in the eu and Nicola Sturgeon has said that has led to a democratic deficit. In terms of a timeline of when we might get this second independence referendum, we have heard that nicolas sturgeon is looking between the fall of 2018 and the spring of 2019. If everything goes to plan and article 50 is triggered at the end of march and we get these two years of talks, theresa may is going to find herself in the final months of negotiating brexit with also having to deal with an independence referendum for scotland. If you wanted in a sense of the uncertainty this is causing, look at sterling. An eight week low in this session, and we have been hearing calls. And analyst at Deutsche Bank said sterling could fall much further from where it is. Cehic atra westminster. Lets get more from scotlands first minister, joining us earlier. They discussed the potential for a Scottish Referendum and the future for the country in the European Union. What you will find is over the next few months, a very distinct perspective will open up for scotland. You will be able to see how scotland can secure this position within the European Economic area and then we will have a friendly reception across europe. Scotland has many friends in europe. The u. K. Has none left and this is a big transformation. In 2014, i could not even get the proposal. A total difference, in attitude toward scotland because people across europe know that scotland is basically here european and are exasperated with the government in london which is pursuing such a reckless brexit. What the tell you about whether scotland would join the euro . It was private discussions. Union is in the european but not in the euro. Are, you have to be an exchangerate mechanism for two years before you can even apply to join the euro and begin the exchangerate mechanism is a voluntary act which is why sweden is not to the euro and that would apply to scotland and nine other countries. You would not expect to have to join the single currency. Correct. Would it be full membership or transitional . Lets see how this emerges. The logic of having the referendum on the timescale geon outlined is to matter theing next few months and i am saddened that the negotiations about scotland will be a good deal easier than the negotiations in london and. Rexit the former first minister of scotland with bloomberg, earlier. Vonnie lets check in on the first word news. White house budget chief Mick Mulvaney says the Congressional Budget Offices appraisal of the Republican Health care plan is wrong. Will then he said he does not trust the cbos prediction that 14 million americans will lose their Health Care Insurance in the next year under the republican legislation. Paul van also said the cbo was wrong in its predictions of coverage under obamacare. A republican aide said that even with the cbo analysis, house Speaker Paul Ryans office is not considering any major changes to the repeal and replace bill. He asked that the house leadership was expecting the cbo score to show that less people would be covered. French president ial candidate Francois Fillon has been charged with misusing funds according to a prosecutor. Investigators were looking into whether he gave his family fake jobs as parliamentary aides. Is standing down, the Elementary Committee says that she did not read the standards required for the role. Lawmakers were concerned that notadmitted she did disclose that her brother works at barclays which the central bank regulates. She was hired as the chief operating officer in 2013. In the northeastern u. S. , the dividing line between snow and a wintry mix has moved inland. That means there may be less now than expected, but there may be more of a chance of icing. A blizzard warning has been canceled for new york, but is still in effect for areas to the north and west. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts. This is bloomberg. Mark coming up, i will speak with icelands finance minister on the heels the country and its capital control regime ending its capital control regime. This is bloomberg. Vonnie from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. Mark and i mark barton in london. Roughly 13 minutes away from the end of the tuesday session in europe. Iceland has been bouncing around a bit, the country ending its eightyear capital control regime. Countries,izens, Pension Funds now have full access to the Global Capital market, ending a long struggle to resurrect the economy after its worst recession in more than three decades. Joining us now is benedict your hansen is benedict your johansen nedict johannsesson. Volatility rising against the dollar and the euro. I am not comfortable, but we have in the past eight years. After the crash in 2008, we were devalued by 15 , but it has been crawling back 50 , that it has been crawling back and is back to approximately its former strength. Mark you would have thought that the moves on capital pressure, butease the currency is appreciating today. What is going on . It is hard to say. Iceland is a very small country, so small movements may have some influence. Today, small fluctuations are something that we are very used to. Is it is mark possible that the currency could keep increasing because of record tourist arrival, which of course your nation is experiencing right now, boosting the economy. That is true. Been what has been been the main reason for the economy gaining strength is the tourism boom. Krona rise inhe strength in the past eight months. I think lifting capital controls to stop this trend. Like you said yesterday, the by three orvalued 4 3 or 4 . Mark are you worried that the economy could overheat . We are trying to take steps against that, by increasing the government surplus from 1 to 1. 5 of gdp. Has keptal Bank Interest rates quite high. They are now at about 5 which is much higher than most european countries. Mark does that mean there is a need for the central bank does that mean there is a need or a possibility the central bank could cut rates from the current 5 , maybe to 4. 75 . Is that a way to deter hot money . I would hope so. I would hope they would reduce interest rates, somewhat. I have no influence over it, but there have been a number of factors in the right direction. No disputes in the labor market, at the moment. Placee a government in and we dont have the capital controls anymore. They might reduce the rate. Mark what about the future of Monetary Policy . A full float or a controlled float . We have a full float, although we do have some precautionary measures, still intact. Andn some remnants some remnants still in place. When will they be able to walk away . Who have beenose here for eight years or so . Mark the 90 billion krona from those investors. They will be able to take the offer by the central bank of ,utting 137. 50 for the euro which is 20 higher than the normal Exchange Rate on friday. Mark has that figure come down because that is whats remaining. I dont know what has happened since saturday. About half had accepted the offer on saturday. As we started with the crisis, lets and with it. Could 2008 happen again and with it end with it. Could 2008 happen again . You should never say never, we are in much better shape. We have currency reserves that we could never dream of, before. The banks are much smaller than they were in 2008. We are not dreaming of being a International Banking superpower as we were, then, so i think that type of experience, hopefully we will not experience in the next few years at least. Mark benedict johansen benedict johannes and benedikt johannesson, thank you. This is bloomberg. European markets as we head into the close. Down the first day in five as we await the outcome of the two day fed meeting which is tomorrow. Sterling is down again. How soon will brexit negotiations begin . It might happen in june. The close is four minutes away, this is bloomberg. Vonnie mark this is the european close. Rising, oil groups the noticeable one, they worst performer, down by 1. 8 as crude declines on that report from saudi arabia. Food and beverage bestperforming industry groups, what a heavy week in Central Banks we have. Sterling one month implied volatility, a lovely chart going back to 2014, taking in the two big referendums. There is the big brexit referendum just before the saw oneum last year, we week implied volatility rise to an eight year high on june 14. In the runup to the Scottish Referendum in 2014, implied volatility rose to a then fouryear high. The referendum to showing you what referendums can do to pound volatility. We are getting used to Political Risk in this country. Initical risk on the radar the eurozone and it will be front and center with the dutch election. We have not seen the Political Risk premium in the spread like we have seen in the german and french spread. We have come down from the twoyear high we saw in the middle of february, but we have been nowhere near the height and level we have seen with the difference between the french and the germans 10 year. It brings it on to tomorrows, to the dutch election. No party is set to win more than a fifth of the seats in the lower house. A Multiparty Coalition is needed. Every major party has said they will not work with the Freedom Party leader. And French Company weighing an offer for rwes German Renewable Energy utility. This is according to people engie up byhares in 4. 3 . Rwe put the company off last year. 51 . T reduce its stake to vonnie we are looking at some movers here, but they are not movers until tomorrow. A big move for the dollar index and the yen and the 10 year yield. Markets are repricing rate hikes, right up to 100 . Lets see what happens all of those Asset Classes. , globalke a look at gmm macro movers and see the g10 area, not having much luck. Canada suffering a little bit. The british pound and the yen. Yields, you can see that the United States is the most interesting. 3. 17 on that third year. There is a line of resistance. Lets take a look at oil in more depth. Abigail doolittle has that. Another down day because oil is down seven days in a row, the longest losing streak since january 2016. A sharp like lower, this morning. The saudi selling opec they have reversed some of their output cut, so investors are seeing this bearish league bearishly. Lots of pressures on oil. Energy is the worst sector for the nasdaq. Well. P 500 and the dow as big e p names down. Oil Services Stock is down. Lots of red. , we could be ahead for oil talked about the 200 day moving average. This is oil in relation to the moving average over the last year. Last couple of times that oil has dipped down, it found support for we are looking at a pretty bearish flight. Welooks pretty solid and have this congestion that appears to be breaking to the downside, suggesting we could see oil trade closer to 42 a barrel. That does sound bearish and it would be a decline for oil. Lets put it in more of a macro perspective. Barrel,holds that 40 a this is a longterm chart of oil in white with the energy etf in orange, going back to 1999. The blue bars represent major opec cuts and after those major production cuts we have seen big gains. We do see more of a pullback in oil and the xle, it would be fitting to some of the wavering in the of trends, but nonetheless uptrends. Longterm,pear to be mediumterm bullish. Minister theresa mays green light to trigger article 50 sending sterling falling, one of the it has fallen 19 versus the dollar since the referendum. Interestingly, the move came in the european trading, not in asian trading. It was almost delayed. We have