Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140117 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance January 17, 2014

To 30. Housing starts, Building Permits, they are expected to climb a little bit. Industrial production is supposed to be up. At 10 00 a. M. , the university of Michigan Confidence numbers. How my doing . These are important numbers today . If they are good, that can build on the idea that the jobs number was an aberration and that the economy is moving along. Looking backwards, not forwards, we will be getting earnings. Everybody watches ge as an economic oh other. At 7 15, they out last of the big angst. Senator big banks. Senator tom coburn of oklahoma will be leaving the senate. He is also on the Banking Committee overseeing the fed and on the intelligence committee. He is tied up in all of this nsa stuff. Bonds, currencies commodities, when you look at them today, up, up, we go. 10year yield continues to come coffee, delhi go. Your goes nowhere the snake euro goes nowhere this week. Sterling was weaker earlier on the Economic Data that mark the michael is talking about. The renminbi, im watching. Best buy, after what we saw yesterday, just extraordinary decline in best buy. That servers you up when you think you know what youre doing. Whoops. The buy, no question, humility item of the week. French page our first frontpage story, the president will ask andmmendations from a panel the government must do a better job at protecting peoples civil liberties. This comes as the laser ablation on the and as you that the nsa collects more than 200 million Text Messages a day. , tom ou are texting i feel bad because im boring the heck out of them reading my text. Early reviews is that the president is not going to take a very strong stand today. On our second friend pay alan r on our second front page, there are googled sunglasses. They could be a blessing for theirics who pricked fingers up to 10 times a day to draw blood. Googles is that the lenses are still five years from coming to market. I will let cory johnson of bloomberg west try these, not me. Our third from page story, old technology, intel down about 5 in the free market. Chipmakerbiggest reports it may fall short of estimates. Falling business orders for server chips, consumer pc demand also. They used to be seen as a real economic bellwether. But no one is buying pcs anymore. We are all buying tablets. But their chips are going to pcs that nobodys buying. The share for michael processors is lesson 1 here in microprocessors is less than 1 . Excuse me. Can we have a moment of silence todaychael mckees tied tie today . [laughter] do want to get to our twitter question for this morning. Which quarterback will have the best weekend . Libby Colin Kaepernick . Would will it be Colin Kaepernick . Is it going to be tom brady . He has been bullish when you. Erent here in howard ward youre thrilled to bring richard falk and wrath with his work in the white house on this issue of the pros and. Everyone is saying that it is a big speech. Why is it . Ea hasnt spoken definitively about what he will do the do with the intelligence apparatus. I am with Michael Mckee. I think it will be an equivocal speech and announce a few internal process changes and open some topics for discussion. Is in a loselose speech for the president . Question away. In a way. The Tech Community sees this as a serious risk factor. With your work with Reagan Gorbachev for million user go, it is a different world today. It is a different world. We didnt have cell phones. One of the questions raised by this, if the president does not action, people dont want to buy u. S. Technological products because they dont know what is in them. Thats right. It doesnt have a good way of incorporating the modern economy and the needs of the Tech Community, club community, the service providers. President ckly as the capable of moving the needle on this . Law andthings require that moves very slowly. And there are things that he can do quickly with a signature with an executive decision. Those are policy measures. He can do those immediately. He will say he has already done some of them. For 2013,market call simply, howard do you reaffirm your optimism . Yes, although i dont think we will have a 30 year. Would exit youwe offstage to therapy. [laughter] why dont i read about in the newspaper the morning that cni loans are at a record level . Earnings are at a record lover of record level. Why is this news not front center . Why is it . I just dont get it. The news is very positive. Year, of course, we have the fiscal drag going away. We have strength in exports. We have the personal consumption rising and that will improve as unemployment continues to come down. Ande got Home Construction commercial construction kick into place. All of these metrics are in place but Corporate America is him buying into this. Weve been waiting for that for a ontime. The new is at a record level is atnow the new cap x a record level right now. The investment is there. We have an Industrial Renaissance taking place right now. There was deferral of a lot of capex for a long time. Uncertainty,ic regulatory uncertainty. Now the the shift comes after holiday sales of the consul disappointed. Nintendo announces it will sell less than 3 million in consuls for the year, down from an earlier projection of 9 million. Continuing with the category of dismal forecasts, shell says that fourthquarter earnings will be considered lower. Profit will be about 2. 9 billion. The previous estimate was 4. 9 billion dollars. Shell bryans show blames shell blames lower production. Awards will be paid for many senior bankers in casual in cash and really. Bonuses in cash immediately. Quest that has been a huge uproar. It all has to do with when it was deferred in equity shares. Howard shore is saying forget about all the gloom. Things are pretty good. It is the high and low and the contradiction we see out there today. Coming up, we will talk about albert about apple. China mobile finally coming to fruition. The stakes are pretty high for both apple and china mobile. If you miss any variant of use, you can watch them on bloomberg tv. Good morning, everyone. Tiki barber this morning with betty liu on in the loop. With me,u is always braving the surveillance week. Michael mckee is with us this week. The National Security agency 08 already knows this, but apple increasingly relies on china for its sales growth. That effort, they hope, is getting a boost today. Apple is beginning to sell the iphone in the nations largest mobilephone carrier. Is interesting here because tim , the ceo of apple, is in beijing today to kick off the ceo of apple, is in beijing today to kick off this thing. Sixnegotiation deal began years ago. 763 million subscribers. For apple, that means a company now has access to more than 700 million potential new customers. We dont have any financial details on the partnership. But it will be sold in 3000 locations across the country, a boon. N to a big there are concerns about apples image in china. New york times reporting that very few people showed up to see tim cook today. Orders are already at one million before todays launch date. Some different analysts have some different forecasts. Others say that he could boost it by 15 million for the full year because of this deal with china mobile. We will see how plays up. The question is the icing is not that great, specially in china. If you have an unsubsidized phone, the price could be 700 versus a locally made phone which would be in the neighborhood of 300. Here is the apple juggernaut coming out of 2009. Up we go. Everything is great. Im with Larry Haverty on the street by the iphone store going by, by, by and that was wrong. We made it back nicely. Is part of this the International Expansion and proof that the world will buy apple and not just dumb america . The International Expansion is a big part of the growth story at apple for the years ahead. No question about that in china no question about that him and china has been a piece of that. But the key thing here is that apples marketshare hasnt receded. Apples market share has solidified and is poised to grow. Three apple executives said that they would not give up the high ground of an aspirational product. Do you have confidence india and china will pay up for an aspirational product . Absolutely. I believe the apple brand in china is really still extremely strong and very much an aspirational product. This is a company that had near riots at their beijing and shanghai stores a couple of years ago when you phones were introduced. That was a couple of years ago. That is the key. That is the key, but, im telling you, scarlet, the apple brand will be very strong in china. Are subsidized phones available for heavy data users. They will give you the phone for free if you get the highest data plan. So they are targeting a certain kind of customer. Do investors look at it as a growth stock or a value stock . It is cheap. It is surprised by intel which is no growth. It is a value stock. Cash flow yield. An ongoing execution of a share buyback. It will learn about 45 a share this year. Is price for no growth. Yet we think it will have double digit growth this year. It will have close to triple digit growth next year. Let me bring in my new toy with a picture of scarlet fu on it. Let me ask you the basic question. Can the nsa listen to my phone calls . Can the nsa read my messages in my emails . No. You are inside the United States. The fbi could with an order with the pfizer court with the fisa court. Person. Own to be a u. S. This is an issue for china because they have their own version of the nsa and china mobile is a stateowned telecommunications provider. What apple is essentially selling is one more device of the chinese authorities can use to keep tabs on their own population. So anyone in any given company, ibm in beijing, if they has this, american or china national, you would suggest a Security Apparatus can really look right into it. Yes. It is running on the chinese network. The wiretapping occurs up the network level. It is a subject of negotiations when Companies Like apple going to the market. What features do they enable or disable for governmental electronic surveillance . Apple has not disclose that. Theres no doubt in my mind that they will be cooperating with the surveillance of the chinese want. That matches your shirt. I got this so that i could see it at 2 00 a. M. In a piano bar room it is great in a piano bar. It is great. You better erase that before the nsa gets to that if you travel. We have much more coming on bloomberg surveillance. Nba commissioner david stern and itcoming commissioner doesnt always have to be about [indiscernible] this is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Mr. Mckee has top headlines as morning. Dozens of people wounded when an explosive device was thrown into a truck carrying antigovernment protesters. Demonstrators have stays daily marches every day this week. They want the figure second elections to be postponed. In the u. K. , retail sales up more than forecast last month. Easily topping estimates for just a [indiscernible] gains at Department Stores in smaller shops helping to fuel the rise. Bitcoin moving a step closer to something. Some people say mainstream, but im not so sure. But the Sacramento Kings starting to accept the Virtual Currency for everything from tickets. From tickets to hot dogs. Whenll talk about bitcoin we talk with the ceo of the Company Behind the first bitcoin atm. You know im skeptical. Now, here is scarlet fu. This is the author and editor of a Construction Trade magazine. He says, if you cant find skilled workers, maybe start an apprentice program. Companies typically want others train employees. Maybe donald trump was onto something. We could have some a sitting next to tom. Suggest labor economics are sobered by the success of a german model. It is the new new, isnt it . Is there a shortage of workers. Real problem with a shortage of skilled workers in a number of fields. Absolutely. Whether they can be resolved through policy at the educational front, i dont know. It seems like it is becoming a chronic problem. You and i were younger when we first talked about apprentice programs and we were going nowhere for the most part. Im going to look for some apprenticeship programs for mike to kids ran out for my two kids are now. Eral electrics rent General Electric spent 15 billion. We will look at that next. Good morning, everyone. We await General Electric earnings. Lets do a did a check thats lets do a data check. Eurodollar, 136 03. Nymex crude 94. Lets get to gators and losers. Lets get to gainers and losers. Thats one of the losers was best buy. We just got results. . 53 a share. It matches the analyst estimates. Ge always manages the consensus. In terms of orders, up 8 for the period and a backlog. It seems a little bit shy of analyst estimates. The third quarter, orders actually increased 19 . As you look further into the data pages and pages of come out, everybody would generate electric puts an organic Revenue Growth which is Revenue Growth of existing businesses. It is a smoothed out number, something that mr. And melvin and his team really focus on. Revenue up 5 . A globally speaks to economy of you economy view away from the United States. Geif its coming from capital, banks have recovered, but that is not the economy getting better. It is coming from their Industrial Companies that much better. The challenges they have had in china as well as other multinationals. Scarlett, what must you see . In terms of industrial margins, up 100 basis points. Also, the company is well positioned to achieve his 2014 framework. No change to that, which is total Revenue Growth of about 0 to 5 . Us, big onard with industrial stocks. Is Gen Industrial company with a bolt on financial . With a boat on with a bolt on financial and a bolt on health care. Its not a really apples to apples industrial icon he well industrial like a honeywell. Energy has become a big part of their business. So it is a bit of its own hybrid. John rice runs the International Shop for immelt. Is this a Global Company masquerading with any with a mailbox in the United States . It is a company with tremendous global reach. Ge wasold days, g was considered a gdp stock. Be a Company Growing with gdp. Organic Revenue Growth is what theyre try to capture. Something in the 4 to 7 range. Aviation, power, water. Saying that we ended the year with great strength. Come outot going to and say hes not going to come out and say, well, that sucked. Earningspershare at every company you have to look past that but g is said to be one of the more transparent companies. They work very closely with analysts. As an investor, do you feel like you really know ge and what is going on . To ge underot put the category of being one of the most transparent companies when you come down to the granular level on the divisionby division basis. I think theyve improved on that in recent years. But if you are back 10 years ago, it was regarded more of a black box. Certainly the Financial Services side. Which was nearly 50 of their earnings back then. Ge capital makes up about 32 of operating income. What is interesting here in this earnings report, ge capital and ge aviation had operating profits that beat analyst estimates. But the industrial segment, power, water, oil and gas, Energy Management all coming in later than anticipated. This is creating a competition where capital keeps beating on assessments and the industrial side does not come up with enough. But again, part of that is Energy Management, oil and gas business which they have that is a little but separate from their true industrial businesses. But i do hope that ge stays course with this program they have had in recent years of trimming down ge capital, reducing the contribution of ge capital to the total. That is what the street was them to do. They will have a higher multiple earnings if they continue. Given all the different settings sectors you are looking at, what are you making your decision on . That is a good question. Wantan argue that, if you an energy company, by energy game if you want an industrial company, by industrial. If you buy an industrial conglomerate, there is some safety and that in terms of smoothing out earnings over a business cycle. But it is a pretty unexciting enterprise. At t they you old putting grandma sportfolio . Sort of. Provided they continue to work down the exposure of ge capital to the total because that presents a financial risk. Come isiting enterprise that enough to get people excited and 2014 . I think ge is a solid investment. I dont own it in my growth fund. We own shares in some of our other funds. But you have the three percent plus dividend yield that was raised just last month. You have tremendous cash flow, share buybacks taking place. 6 , 7 can get 5 , earnings growth, it will probably be the market. Richard falkenrath, how do to ourpanies fold in International Expression and expansion given the challenges we have on security . They generally avoid this topic. There is a little bit by sector, but this is an uncomfortable area. They have to be affected by what the president has to say today. It is so diversified and so broad. Frankly, they will see depressed demand due to the fact that they are seen to be corporative with the u. S. Government on spying. Thi

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