Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140509 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance May 9, 2014

Hilton worldwide will have its first report is a public committee. We will also have a report from ralph lauren. We know that the Toronto Maple Leafs are playing golf. Right now, equities, bonds, currencies 2. 61 . R yields, nymex is at 0. 82. Vicks, 13. 43. Yellen year yield is the headline. We have to get wonky. 82 is the difference between the 10 year note and a 30 year debt. Lets go to the monitor them at the bloomberg terminal. Mr. Putin in crimea move into the weekend. The navy is presenting off the coast. We still do not know one putin wants. We will talk about ukraine later. We scoured the front page. It was completely jumbled last night. Everything changed. The top story had to do with the advertising juggernaut. This would have been the biggest advertising firm. The board voted to end the advertising deal. All of the delays created uncertainty for everyone involved. Shareholders, employees we are not that realizing a dream does not mean that we do not have dreams. It is disappointing that we have this dream, which is not going through. Do not go to the church right after going to the judge. Were divorcing before getting married. I look at the times the two of them were announcing a planned merger. Look how happy they are. Embracing each other back in july. Just a disaster. In just a few minutes, we will get a take from one of the biggest advertising firms. Lets move on your second rampage front page story. Apple is about to use some of its cash. It is going to make one of the biggest mergers ever. It is looking to buy beats elec tronics. Matt miller has a pair. Why am i not surprised . The price tag is 3. 2 billion. Carlyle has tripled their investment. Theres some real wish back here push back here. Coolple has lost its factor. For so long, they were eno ugh. Do they keepeats, the beats tname . From an outsiders perspective, it seems like a watershed moment. Maybe apple does not know what to do next. Lets get right to the twitter question. Why does apple need dr. Dre . He did eminem. 1998. He said here is this white guy from detroit. Ok, yeah. Lets get to the third front page. You shocked me with that. We are moving over to ukraine. Prorussian separatists are goi ng ahead with preparations for a referendum on sunday. What is surprising is that Vladimir Putin says the referendum should be delayed. Meanwhile, russia is showing off ade, marking a par the defeat of germany in world war ii. A lot of pageantry wrapped around the politics. Toand putin is likely to go crimea to review the black sea sleeve. So, those are the front page stories. The guest host is michael holland. A great day to talk about the banking industry. Richard falkenrath is with the too. The imagery i saw from london this morning of the celebration of the axis. Does Vladimir Putin want a nonsoviety union . He is not trying to recreate the soviet union, but he does want a sphere of influence. Him, parts of ukraine are in that. How do you respond to what we heard rum jp morgan . There can be a Common Ground between a russia and the United States. Slamishe fears of an i t south. We have had challenges there. Shouldnt we find a Common Ground . That has been articulated a lot in the last two decades. It has not worked out in practice. In part, because of a disk unit over what really counts as is lamic terrorist. We saw a concerted effort to brand domestic separatists who happened to be muslim. Our other guest host is michael holland. Investors pulled back from risk last week. Are we going to continue to see that . Tenyear treasury be the best barometer of peoples fears. Comments, the market does not believe that things will be ok. They view it as a serious syria like situation. In, the is ready to go market will take a hit. He has not shown his hand yet. Moldova is the next risk. The Baltic States are not at risk. He will have to deal with ukraine before he can get to moldova. We will talk more about this. Right now, the great merger. It is decidedly dead. The publicist at omnicom agreed to disagree so much that they broke off a agreement. Levy made Martin Sorrellss day. Phone. Tin joins us by is this a surprise to you . You never believed the hugs and kisses in front of the arc de t riomphe. I have been on your program one or two times. We cut the deal would fall apart. We did not think it would fall apart so quickly. We thought they would wait until july 27. And they risks that 500 million break fee. They got so painful that they decided to call it quits early. The deal crumbled. They mustve spent 100 million abouts. There what does it say about the greater Advertising Industry . We look at traditional advertising and media and the new digital space. Is there a message there . I do not think there is a message in that. Both sides are trying to say that this is as good as if they came together. Why have they been spending 10 months trying to come together. Publicis has admitted that during the course of these discussions, they created omnicom has admitted that publicis is better in a digital sense. It helps with the focus on markets. There was a slack first quarter, up strongly in april. The business as a whole is strong. I think we feel good about fast growth markets. Digital is the second pillar. Want them to, we be 45 of our business. Real data we have a business. It is strong and growing. That is of fundamental import ance. Fourth, getting our people to work together. Those four propositions it may also Say Something about don draper is not dead. Ego and hold on. Power is still important. I know you are in beijing. I need to get a straight answer from you. Is joan dead . Draper is not dead, is joan dead . She is a partner. Never. It is not as of mergers and acquisitions are or into the advertising business. Look at the young and rubican. Omnicom andabout made it ahat challenge . I think it was german for reasons surrounding power and ego. Addressed the strategic issues. Neither company could deal with the clunky solutions. This is difficult to execute. Maybe you could think of a situation where ceos have functioned well together. Mergers do not work. One company has to take over another. Practically, they do not work. Day,nk, at the end of the they put the deal together to unseat us as number one. So, it was driven more for those reasons, rather than strategic. Eye ise end of the day, bigger than tummy. Thank you so much. We greatly appreciate your attendance. We have a lot more coming up. Apple tries to recapture its cool. Why they are ready to make beats their biggest purchase ever. Good morning everyone. Erik schatzker is here this morning. Were thrilled to bring you the financial perspective. Away from finance, what happened overnight . Apple is in talks to buy beats, the headphones created by dr. Dre. Billion. Tag is 3. 2 that would make it apples biggest purchase ever. For a look at why they may be buying beats, we have scott what is your reasoning for why they would want to make this move . Apple has never purchased a brand this identifiable. Apple is known for making small purchases of smaller companies. I definitely agree with that. A few things came to mind with the unconfirmed report. It became more widely distributed yesterday evening. Initially, apple has a lot of cash. 151 billion in cash and investments. They also raised more in a debt offering. They are not lacking for resources. It is obvious that there is in race when itms comes to m a. And apple is looking for ancillary areas to bolster and enhance their growth profile. Applehael, you are an bull. Kessler, why is this an interesting deal . I would be interested in his comments about displacing digital by streaming. Online streaming has gone from 10 to 25 or 30 . Digital is declining. I think that is the future and the market will react. This is about itunes and the lack thereof. Right. The way to think about it is two things. One, if you go back 35 years, clearly, the download was a lot growthcepted and a category. There has been a shift where streaming is a lot more appealing in terms of growth and additional opportunities. The tother thing is when you look at apples businesses, the itunes business was doing well. They have businesses in place. The other thing is car play, which they rolled out recently. Scott, what does this say about tim cook . Is, fromk what it says the beginning, we have indicated that tim cook will be a more ceo thannal type of steve jobs was. We have seen that in terms of tim cook being willing to allocate capital to a dividend. He has done a number of things on the m a front. Also, i think that he is more open to considerations from ot hers. I am listening to lose your self. Are we playing that on air . Scott, are you factoring this into your members . Does this boost their revenue for the year . I think it is way too early to incorporate this into our thinking about apple. At this point, it is an unconfirmed report. We will wait to see if apple comes out with a release indicating they are moving forward with this. We do not know what the Business Model is for beats electronics. Ra. Thank you for joining us. He is the head of Tech Research at s p. That brings us to the twitter question of the day. Why does apple need dr. Dre . Tweet us with your theory. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning everyone. It is time for the morning mustread. Alibaba from one of our columnists in tokyo. He says what remains unclear is whether gobbling up more businesses and adding layers of options is a viable Business Model. Alibaba is not reinventing the wheel. I think we have done great coverage on this. Arthur levitt was scathing about the lack of transparency. He said the former chairman of the scc said he would not buy shares. It is up to the auditors to the hard work. We have much more coming up for it are too big to fail banks also too big to jail . Good morning. I am tom keene. Will you be on a 10 00 . You are awesome. 6 00 to 8 00, then 10 00 to 12 00. Lets do a data check. Futures are at 3. Euro. Ur euro weaker fruit oil over 100 as well. Scarlett, do you have more gainers than losers . Higher. Ays closed s inrom 12,000 cutes i february. They want to shift away from commodities trading. Utility like banking. Criminal charges against Credit Suisse may be announced. Can a bank still operate under a criminal charge . Holder says there is no such thing as too big to jail. Is there . Michael holland is with us. He is an investor in banks. Well. Geiger joins us as how scary is the thought of a criminal charge or indictment to a banking ceo . Carrie is an expert. I believe it could put them out of business. That is not a good thing. Cadre will and his not go that extra step. They will do things short of that. On the other hand, there is a broader issue. These are two nonu. S. Banks. Why do they go after the shareholders money . Those are my two issues. Carrie this notion that a bank would fail, would be forced out of business. It is an assumption that has not been tested. Right. That is why this is such a big deal. We do not know what is going to happen. Cases are big cases. They have gotten a lot of attention. We do not know if they will charge the Parent Companies or Holding Companies are different subsidiaries. There are ways to shield the bank from complete fallout or collateral damange. If you had a cocktail and youre talking to somebody. Single piece of information i need to know abou ttt this criminal issue . What has your issue curisotiy here . Will they get a guilty plea with the settlement . That is what Credit Suisse wants. They want to have a sealed deal. We will sue a happens. Weather creates Counter Party risk. If there were an indictment, that is potentially a far worse situation. That is probably not the most likely scenario. They will have some kind of deal done on this. Are they going to get a guilty plea . This is tim geithner with the book rollout. Wonder if this is locking on this issue. Im fascinated by the phone calls going on between the justice and the prosecutors. Keri, you mentioned that we do not know what is going to happen. What this justice want to happen . Are they putting u. S. Banks in the same position . This is what everyone is calling a test condition. If they can survive and they keep going, we might see the Justice Department to more of this. That is the case, why do we need to keep going down this path . Would we have to do to deter bad behavior of banks . What isdoes not do it, the next step that the Justice Department will have to take . How bothered are you by the hypocrisy on display by the Justice Department here . For the benefit of the viewers, case. T the hsbc they settled a couple of years ago. Failures,t of these at least 881 Million Dollars in Drug Trafficking proceeds including Drug Trafficking by the cartel in mexico, were laundered through hsbc bank without being detected. And there is more. So let me translate. Hsbc was outrageous and what they did. This is not even close. Were talking about putting a company out of business. Why is hsbc not involved . Ago, the department of justice supported the idea that banks were too big to jail. We are seeing Something Different now. The complete sea change from them. Whether these conditions are worse, i do not know. Maybe hsbc is too big to jail. That is a possibility too. This is Lewis Carroll stuff. This is a government. Lets go back in history 10,000 peoplen, lost their jobs for the malfeasance of 10 people. Regulators went nuts. Arthur andersen did not do that that of the job. 10,000 jobs were limited. I believe that the Supreme Court validated that. 10,000 people lost their jobs and they did nothing. Bad, you have hsbc, truly actors. None of the bad actors for were indicted. Island about the context. The Financial System cannot withstand a criminal indictment. Wouldnt this trip up the ece onomy . The government shied away from coming down on banks hard during the financial crisis. These are both foreign banks. The banks we have seen in trouble, including jp morgan, which has paid off fines, is us bank. These cases have nothing to do with the financial crisis. If people are still wanting to ion, these cases do not necessarily match up. And know you are in a difficult position. Let mr. Holland said is critical. Is this a shakedown . We will have to see. We have to see what happens to these two banskks. See how they operate. People have described the approach on jp morgan as a shakedown. It does make sense. Jpmorgan got in a lot of trouble for a lot of things. There were a lot of issues spread out there. The criticism is, of course, that money comes out of shareholder value. It does not deter future bad behavior. What does it take to get banks to fall in line with how shareholders want them to operate . And how the public wants them to participate . When do we have a resolution . When do i get to Start Talking about this . Probably a couple of weeks. Not two years . [audio deleted] yeah. Fingers crossed. He wanted this behind them as soon as possible. Is brady dugans job threatened . Most delegations took place before 2007. The board has stood by him. He has done a job. Keri, thank you for joining us to talk about the infinite unanswerable questions of the banks too big to jail. Lots of pondering. If you have a job on wall street, hang on tight. They are going fast. Good morning everyone. Collapse. The omnicom us onmm will be with Market Makers. No joan, though. He has a new movie. Arm. Llion dollar they want to appeal to the emerging markets, especially india. I am tom keene, with a scarlet fu and Erik Schatzker. Erik has the top headlines. It was a day for Vladimir Putin to flex military muscles over the crisis in ukraine. Troops marched across red square as they celebrated their victory over germany in world war ii. The European Union is ready to expand sanctions to some russian companies. Like an overhaul of fannie mae and freddie mac may not take place this year. Democrats will not support the proposal without major revisions. Draft, housonton made clowney the number one pick. He was greeted by roger goodell. Johnny football went at number 22. Cleveland browns. I cannot believe they drag this out into three days. I dont get it. It is a reality tv show. We must do a single best chart. This is a stark reality in new york. It shows a decline in the number of traders and Investment Bankers. Securities industry employment is at a new low in march. The lowest since the government began keeping track in 1990. Two waves down. Rg thanks to bloomber data. Our guest is michael holland. We are so far from the romance of that music and that tickertape. Yeah. Fhat chart was reminiscent on the 1970s. And also the bubble we have today is bubble talk. People are worried about is going negative. Do you believe in the resiliency of wall street . Can they rebound . Absolutely. One only has to go to history. Maybe this will be the first time it never does it. If the Financial Services industry is not a Growth Business that chart shows us that for some time, it was. Show that concern us . In the intermediate term, yeah. We talked earlier about apple. It is being replaced by other things in the economy. Within your reporting, erik, there was an outlandish friction of layoffs. Do you see more rationalizations of labor day . A lot of banking jobs are hard to justify. The amount of money that these are people are getting paid. There are some positions that remain high value. Banks still play an Important Role as creators of credit. How were the first 45 days of the quarter . Jpmorgan was a harbinger. It is harding side, for people to justify the jobs they have got and the money they have made. Nextitically, in the crisis of liquidity, will there be enough platforms to give us some kind of sane market . Wonderful q

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