Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140515 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance May 15, 2014

What else . Andconomic data, cpi jobless claims at 8 30 and 9 15, Industrial Production. Consumer bloomberg comfort index. 10 00, the Philadelphia Fed. And other data as well today and then we going to housing data tomorrow. We are getting a read on the economy. We are going to find out some earnings. We have kohls and dillard before the bell. After the bell, jcpenney and nordstrom. The september of 11 Memorial Museum begins at 10 00 this morning. This is a live shot. President obama will speak at the ceremony. It is been overwhelming. I just spoke to Caroline Hyde about this in london. In front, the memorial has been out for two years. Michael mckee and i wear there the day president obama and president bush and the first quietlyalk lightly around it. The gorgeous waterfalls. Theyre deeply moving. In the background is the new museum. It is a little hard as he from that picture, but those waterfalls just fall down into the ground. That notion of the World Trade Centers coming down, falling down from all the people in there, so it is a dramatic moment coming. Go. What else do we have . Janet yellen will be speaking at 7 00 this evening at the chamber of commerce. Will shift chicken, beef, or fish . Im guessing with chicken. I dont think that is a request and. Lets get a data check. Is, 1. 30ook where it 657. All of this correlated to the low yields. Onto the second screen. 12. 17. Still complacent. There is a 30year bond. Just grinds in as well. Shows the dynamic there of an ever weaker euro. Ruble i never show this on bloomberg surveillance, the french yield. Theres no other chart like this. Italy doesnt look like this. Spain doesnt look like this. Now we go down to new french low yields. About it is big money betting on where the return will be given inflation. You see this massive bid into bonds in the last 48 hours. French gdp yearoveryear going only. 08 we have looked at the front web. And the widow local bond rally taking we have a low bond rally taking place. Policyraghi has, that acres will be ready to act in june. That means some kind of stimulus. In the us, that makes yields look attractive on a relative basis. If we go back three months or eight months. Where is consensus . That rates are going to rise at the end of 2015. Goldman sachs has, thats wrong. Looks german u. K. Yields are also sinking. The latest gdp numbers show economic fundamentals are not growing in their favor. Yield showsear note going full circle. What else . Theets go to a company, board of General Motors is starting its own investigation of those recalls. The feeling was, information was not getting to the board level quickly enough so gm has hired a new York Law Firm to conduct a probe according to the wall street journal. Are meeting weekly with the ceo to review her overhaul after gm took almost a decade to recall all the parts. Your preparation, is this cover your ass . Bit. This is an attempt to get ahead of the next problem to make sure they dont have mystification. They said, they did not want to put their names on this, off the record. That is the way it was done at gm. You did not filter bad news to the top. That was the culture. Remember John Poindexter smoking his pipe, trying to shield Ronald Reagan . Only one not staying up for game 7 in a hockey game. You and i are braindead. I would not be able to talk today if i were staying up late. Our third frontpage story, warning of more employees being punished for fraud in mexico. Michael corbett has come under fire for not moving quickly enough in addressing this fraud. Not firing senior executives, for instance. Up until yesterday, the only person fired was one junior employee. Some have said the way citigroup debt with the mexican fraud may have been part of the reason why the fed was reluctant to allow it to raise its dividend or buy back its shares. It just shows im internal control issues. We are still waiting for some kind of resolution. The discussions continue. Saying it is a week or two out . Theres a lot of negotiating taking place. Our guest host for this hour, Brendan Greeley. We will talk to him later about nike and adidas. Who is that, rinaldo . Certainly not me. The headline is europe is weak, is that what you observed travels . Travels you g most of your trusts Angela Merkel and i dont understand why that is true. It seems like the ecb for so long has been driven by concern over offending the germans and the sign that maybe the ecb will loosen and the next month. It seems like the ecb will do the right thing but only after having exhausted all the alternatives. Theres a small group of economists adjusting for you mentioned push back. Were nowhere near that. It really feels like the whole continent is still frightened of germany. Germany is running the economy like everybody is germany and needs to be germany. Spain does not have the Light Manufacturing that germany does and portugal doesnt either. To correlate visit with a lower bond yields, the euro goes 1. 39 to 1. 36. Pros are suggesting we need to go to 1. 25 to assist these other economies. Especially countries like france. It has been taken so long for their pimp politicians to start getting worried about deflation. It is not like the euro is under threat the way it was a few years ago. I think as long as they dont have to bailout greece, everyone things it is fine. Term is growing at the four times rate overall europe. Doesnt Angela Merkel deserve respect . Right things to the by germany. I think germany gets all of the best things they can without making any sacrifices. It is a great economy. Ever great small, independent companies. Germany wants the rest of europe to be runaway germany is. One of the things like suppressing wages. I think germany thinks it is good that deflation might not be so bad, that there might be internal to valuations. That is painful to do. Do you get to go to brazil to the world cup . Becauseoing to brazil six months ago, friend of mine from college said, im entering the lottery for tickets, can you go . I said to my wife, can i go . He wins, sure, sure, if the lottery, you can go. So im going and watching greece versus ivory coast. Oh, boy. That is what was available. We cant scalp tickets for u. S. Versus germany. Exclusive, full coverage of greece versus ivory coast. Anthe ivory coast is underappreciated team. Save us, scarlet fu. Im going to look up ivory coast. Lets get to company news. Surprise shakeup that New York Times may have been months in the making. Ousted as executive editor. The chairman was never comfortable with her and according to those in the know. Topanies that sell goods sears are feeling the pressure. The Insurance Firms has scaled back policies in recent months. Those policies are designed to reimburse manufacturers if a retailer like sears cannot pay. Sales at sears have fallen for seven years in a row. Launched a new campaign against counterfeit products as the chinese ecommerce giant prepares to go public in the u. S. They started automatically removing brands that have been identified as fake. Ebay has a similar process. That is this mornings company news. What are you working on . Morocco ast, it is a qualifying round. I know, i need to know how ivory coast got to the world cup. They beat out some strong african teams. Nigeria had him a choice of games, that is not the one i would pick, but hey, youre going to the world cup. We say good morning to all of you watching in africa this morning of bloomberg surveillance. Ivory coast world cup. Coming up, smallcap stocks. Theyre getting the cold shoulder. We will talk about it. This is bloomberg surveillance. Morning, John Chambers join us later in the day. John chambers of cisco at 10 00 a. M. This morning. Look at the equity markets. They are all the rage. Smallcap stocks are persistently outperforming the larger brethren. Large cap experts suggest the tide has turned. We speak to a small and midcap for Wells Capital management. Brian, have a large caps on or day or can the small caps comeback . We think small caps can come back, but we are very Inflection Point now. If they continue to rate lower on an absolute basis, the large cap outperformance we think well have to come to an end as well in the broader implication for that is negative in general. Small caps can bounce back. Within your work day today in the equity markets, are these dynamics signaling a flagging of a bull market or even signaling the beginning of some form of intermediate downturn . Taken be the canary in the coal mine, if you will all stop if small stacks stocks move we have seen it in a weaker broader market. It is so significant, we would expected to revert in the short run. Talk about reversing, our friends put together a chart comparing the exhilaration of small caps versus large caps and only twice since 2009 have smallcap scott in this discounted to large caps in the past. Bounced backey quickly. What is the timeframe . Were not sure if we can execify the bounceback. About 5 tondicate 10 move coming in and those things if we are correct. I would not want to quantify that for the broader market. I want your take on what were seeing in treasuries. The prices rallying. Largecap stocks have been railing as well. As one leading the other . I think theyre rather cool with it. As we are thinking about the bond market and the 10 year bond, it is an indication people are concerned about the direction of the economy, the fight to safety. Some are fighting back. If you think about the smallcap market as being the canary in the coal mine, i think the 10 year bond is similar in it is moving with the smallcap moving lower. Bryant vancronkhite, thank you so much. Particularly the midcap space, we will do some work on that. I think are greatly under loved by the media. Apple, apple, apple, google. There is more like very, apple, apple, apple. Like very smallcap. Twitter. Frenzy on thea equity markets. Coming up for freakonomics coauthor Steven Levitt out the new book with steven dubner. Our twitter question of the day how about the new york rangers . Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Lets get started with our top headlines this thursday morning. The senate may vote as early as next week on stanley fischers nomination to be the vice chairman. He is one of three nominations for the board. All three have been approved. Senator paul rand has produced all the nominations. Rand paul i think. Turkey, minors are dead in the worst mine disaster ever. Rescue crews are still trying to reach 100 coal miners. Theyre still trapped underground. Theyre being slowed down by fire and gas. The in a chill flails, Montreal Canadiens nhl playoffs, montreal canadians. They now face the new york rangers in the eastern conference finals. Game one is saturday. Those are the top headlines. 1 00 p. M. On saturday. Boston did not look like boston. I thought there started its with really injured. I thought their starter looked really injured. I am surprised you are a canadians fan. Canadians. Afs, this is the glacier. Time for morning must read. Listen this thursday morning. President obama will be speaking at the dedication of the National September 11 museum this morning. Stephanie ruhle sat down with Michael Bloomberg who is chairman of the memorial and museum. Heres what he told her about what ticket worth the way at the museum. To me when i saw one of the fire engines and wondering what happened to the guys on the fire engine. It just brings it back to human beings. I did not know very many people. Ho died christies husband was running the port authority, the World Trade Center site. One of my employees three of my employees, young people, hide. The son of a guy i worked with died. Theres a handful of others. But that is what brings it this is all about people and ideas and freedoms. It is the freedoms for those left behind. Will disclosure, is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp. I was in hong kong and it happened. Here. Re you were downtown. I was standing outside the south tower when it theyll. I was just lucky. A lot of people around me died. Are you going to go . I will build a go for a long time. It seems compelling but it will take a while before i can go. I was in boston. Nothing like what you went through. Michael mckee was there. I was in boston. I have trouble visiting the site. We do the opening of the memorial, Michael Mckee ni. Could barely get through it. I was sitting at my desk and my phone rang, and it was my at the worlds down trade. I called the i. T. People said, fix the phone. Little did i know the phone was shorting out because of what had happened. Do you think they have done it right within the wonderful reporting in the newspapers and images . Did they get the tone right . Read, best article ive this was the one written in the New York Times a year afterward. It was sort of a direct play on the eb white sa this is new york from this 1950s. I get chills. Ive never had any other piece of writing that is so perfectly captured the moment. Wonderful to have you with us on this day. The president will be in new york today at 10 00 a. M. This morning for the dedication of the museum. There is the memorial and the waterfall in the distance of the new museum. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene with scarlet fu and adam johnson. Quick data check. Oil still elevated. Lousyweaker euro, european data. Lets get to the gainers and losers. How do you say ibm in french . Was a decliner yesterday. The ceo talking to wall street analysts not good. A lot of people are thinking that is the canary in the coal mine. Sears down almost six percent, looking to divest its 51 interest in Sears Holding canada. That might be a possibility. It is exploring strategic options. I think it has lost money for the past three years and forecast a loose this year and next year. It is kind of a black mark for a deliberate. Zulu lee . Online retailer for children and mothers, apparel retailer. Like lululemon for threeyearolds . Casual wear. Are they transparent . Or have they learned their lesson from the other guys . Are you in the market for a new car . One third of all people who test drive a car by it on the spot. Most dont even have over the best price. Suckers. A new study. How does this data compared to 2007 when we were also flush with cash . Over 2007, we were selling 60 million cars a year in this country. Were working our way back up. This year, we forecast you will likely sell 16. 4 million new cars in this country. To be a little on the bullish side, but were feeling good. Why arent people haggling . Only 20 of people consider themselves a true price haggle or . On the continuing of extreme price hike was versus timesavers, the majority of people, 64 , are in the middle and both are important. Price is important everybody, but so is time. You do great anecdotal work. The First Time Ever test drove a fancy car, i was going 114 miles per hour. They let you do that . We have a team of 40 folks who do that fulltime, test cars and give the opinions. It gets us to buy the car. That is the idea. We are giving it to you on all types of cars. Going . Fast were you ori took out an audi something. Driving 114. Toyota has had problems. What is it you project youre going to be buying . Domestic or foreign . We are buying both. The interesting thing about our data, the recalls that have occurred for a number of the manufacturers have not really affected the consideration of their makes on our site. Shoppers are still looking at their vehicles the same way they greater, to aeven certain extent. People dont read the news. Or they dont tie the names of the companies to the brand plates. There is a lag effect and that perception. Most of the consumers who show up at dealerships are a lot more informed than they were years ago thanks to their mobile devices and transparency available online. Are the sale stuff that dealerships up for meeting the challenge of these more difficult questions from the customers . Isi think what were saying theres Greater Transparency there, more people have information prior to coming into the dealerships. That is fostering quite a bit more trust in decreasing the friction in negotiations between shoppers and salespeople. Im amazed. Rarely, tom, you know this being the statistics guy, really cheesy the number 100 . But what hundred percent of smartphone owners 100 of smartphone owners use it for shopping for cars. Im not sure we will see all the transaction take place on the phone, but more and more is being done on computers and mobile devices so when showing shows up at the dealership, it makes the transaction amateur easier. They always get you with the rough stafford added 289 rough stuff added, 289. The rubber mats. That was the upscale. As far as transparency and getting information online, i had a conversation with a used car salesman who told me he loves it when people come in the office and they have sheets of paper. Is the tone still there of used car salesman . There is still an allure, but the reality is, most of the cells folks love the fact that consumers are coming in armed with information because it makes their job that much easier. Is autonation the future where youre selling multiple cars under one roof, multiple brands . Big brands like autonation and others that have aggregated numbers of dealers are moving, but the percentage overall dealer population, there are still relatively small. Of the 30,000 new car dealers there are in this country, there are still a lot of mom and pops out there as well. What are they anticipating what the customers want and need before the customers even realize it . Some of the information that the dealers have in advance is they have a better sense as to what is going on from manufacturers perspectives on incentives and rebates, things along those lines would be some of the things they have. Consumers have access to quite a bit of that information as well. Of the pain out of buying a used car, adding some trust there, has that changed the willingness of people have to buy a used car . I think what weve seen is carmax has done a good job along those lines. Were seeing other large groups do similar sorts of things. Big market,ket is a three times bigger than the new market. Which car holds its all you

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