Today Constellation Brands, greenbrier that is train cars. A couple of items of note. California minimum wage rises to nine dollars an hour starting today. A couple of soccer matches. Switzerland versus argentina at noon. Coming are you coming echo i am going to try. The sony walkman turns 35. I cannot believe that. But does anybody have a walkman . I dont think so. July 1, a lot of movement here. It is hard to believe. We say it every year it flies by. The second half, finally. You are looking at equities bombs equities, bonds, currencies. Futures up. The euro is stronger, the yen stronger. The dollar weaker. Nymex crude staying at 105. 11. 57. The dollar index is a big deal. , breaking under 80. Index, at the blended dx this is one year you can see the many months just in a range area that we roll with recent dollar weakness. Range bound. How far have we been stuck . The second year. The name of your new dog, range bound. Range bound, come here. Our top frontpage story, bnp paribas finally pleaded guilty and agrees to pay 9 billion for violating u. S. Sanctions against sudan, airtran, and cuba. Shares up as much as against sudan, iran, and cuba. Yesterdayted how there was talk and it is now confirmed that bnp will be barred from operations for one year for its gas commodity. , and itis not out there should be out there. They are going to do this without cutting the dividend. They will adapt the dividend pad2014 to match the 2013 of 115 euro or share. This is like when caterpillar went out and issue bonds so that it could maintain its dividends. It is incredible what companies are doing. With a growth rate of just under double digits. That is pretty good. Take a listen to what u. S. Attorney general eric holder said when he announced these fines and the guilty plea. Bnp engaged in a complex and pervasive scheme to illegally move billions through United StatesFinancial Systems on behalf of sanctioned entities. These actions represent a serious breach of United States law. Sanctions are a key tool in protecting United StatesNational Security interests, but they only work if they are strictly enforced. The authorities are choosing to enforce them now that the banks are healthier and can withstand the pain. Minutesmore in a few with a terrific guest with a lot of perspective. Lets get to the next story. Is it generalist motors . Another 8. 5otors, million vehicles. That gives gm a dubious record because it now has the most peoples ever recalled in the u. S. In a single year, 27. 5 million. The previous record was held by four. G. M. In north america has recalled almost 29 million. 2011,al worldwide sales, 2012, 2013, 9. 7 million i think that is 27 million vehicles. Vehiclene every single you made in three years effectively got recalled. We have a serious production problem. Further, thatep becomes a serious issue. The brand i am fascinated by this. Farhe interesting thing, so auto sales at gm have not been affected. Best saleshey had since august of 2008. The Big Summer Party is a really wonderful event, and you walked around and there was the auto booth photo and there was this gorgeous old code that gorgeous old corvette. That is the magic of General Motors. Will they lose it . They have not lost it yet. Mary barra is trying to get out ahead of this. This did not happen on her watch. She is the new ceo. How about stepping into that . s children were well mannered. Oure also want to get to story on ukraine, once again attacking rebel forces after ceasefire ended. The president of view cain, ukraine,oshenko, of petro poroshenko, says that rebels map, and it deserves to be on the map. To use a word we have been using a lot lately, such a cacophony of headlines. It is hard to know who is in charge. You just do not know. Is the bottom line that putin backed off . The eu is threatening russia with more sanctions. We have heard this before. Some of the separatists are wanting to align with russia. Others want to be separate from both russia and the central government. Those are frontpage stories on this thursday morning on this tuesday morning. Of you onhello to all global wall street, particularly france and europe. It will bews is mostly business as usual for air paribas. Bnp they will retain dividend and get client losses. Ryan Robert Albertson is a Sandler Oneill banker specializing in none other than banks. Robert, thrilled to have you here this morning. Your response to bnp paribas and what it means for their american operations. It means what it means. It is a modest restriction for a file, a narrow one, commodities only. Presumablye is defendable based on the history of the action. Maybe it is the first time regulators got in the act and said lets make these fines tied to something. In that sense you sort of feel better that we are finally maybe , chase theof this banks and punish them. The seem to deserve punishment. What i take away from it, what bothers me most thomas is that the french authorities what bothers me most, is the french authorities wanted to defend them. It tells me we have Little International cooperation. That kind of shocks me. Himselfnce minister said we have looked at this stuff and it is perfectly ok. The word that comes up here is macro prudential regulation. Is macro prudential, if you have internet seen work share . What we are talking about here domestically is another look at dodd frank and coming up with observations and changes in both directions. So i think the activist aggressive example would be who said wedeau need to raise the thresholds of size and all that. It sounds good. We are making the Regulatory Burden overkill. And then a month later he comes up with this new speech and i strongly recommend that you get a hold of the lipton letter that gets into this it says that banks and their boards, they have to care about customers, about investors. They also have to care about the country, and macro policy, and they have to think about what they are doing and how it will affect that. It is really going another layer out in terms of responsibility. We all want to do the right thing for the country, but macro prudential in this case means whatever the fed is trying to do, whatever the politicians are trying to do. Robert albertson will continue with us throughout the morning. We also have mike reagan, a stocks editor from bloomberg news. The angst over all the Financial Regulation does not seem to be affecting the stock market if you look at where the indexes are trading, but surely it is having some kind of sentimentdamping effect on investors. Financials are one of the worst performers in the Second Quarter. Really the Second Quarter is governed by energy companies. When will investors know that it is all clear . Isthere something there such a thing as cell in july and go away . He puts on a flak jacket and a helmet. Are down there and it is like a war zone, and the reality is it is a war zone. How boring is it in the war zone right now . I think it is 51 days without a move on the s p 500 of more than 1 . 1995,s almost 20 years, where we had a stretch of quiet for that long. Everything is low. Is your job in jeopardy . All the traders at the big banks. In your world rip it up. Robert albertson, will there be trading debts on wall street . There already have been. The other big change in regulation is the refocus on trading levels, and it has gone way past highfrequency trading. Not all of it is bad. It is not all bad. Robert albertson is here. He does not want to talk to michael. He will talk to Michael Reagan. We will be talking about mark fields, taking the reins today as the new head of ford. This is bloomberg surveillance , on bloomberg television, also stream on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Could morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Us, thursday, this is one interesting person, david rubenstein. You may know him as the chief executive office of the chief executive officer of carlisle. I know him as the greatest american citizen. He goes out with many millions and acquires cool things for the benefit of the nation. 10 00 a. M. Stein, this morning on market makers. Four, dow futures up 42 as well. Lots going on in detroit, but we want to start with the news another, gm recalling eight point 5 million vehicles, bringing the total number in north america to almost 29 million. We go to jamie butters. This has become a festering thing the more you look, the more you find. Gms intraday at stock chart yesterday, it was up in the morning as feinberg demonstrated gms commitment to trying to do the right thing, to include as many people as should be included in the compensation program. Then they halted trading and came out and said six more recalls, 8 million more vehicles, 7. 5 million just in the u. S. Including admissions. Ignitions. G less than one standard deviation is sort of a typical day at the office for gm. Both were pretty well expected. Mr. Feinbergs pattern is pretty well laid out. Saidhen mary barra had they are wrapping up a bunch of investigations, trying to get them done by the end of the Second Quarter, which was yesterday, so they wanted to get those out and they did. If this keeps coming at 5 million a month, that is going to be a real problem. Around,is wrapping up maybe they are putting it around the. When will this affect Monthly Sales . It has not so far. We will see in june we will see june results today. Gm is down but it is in line with their pricing. They have been disciplined on pricing, and it was taken as a sign of their strength and how well they are handling this. When does this begin to affect the brand. Has an article in the New York Times this morning. When does it affect that named marquis back to sloan in the 20s. When does it affect gm . It seems that there are more fatalities that are caused by this kind of negligence, neglect on the part of the whole company. That is the stuff that really tarnishes them. We have seen the recalls in the last couple of years. Ford and toyota have ramped up their recall machine to grab everything out there, and it is not hurting them, it is helping them in the market. By volume of numbers, probably not that bad, but if there are , and now that they , it hurts. To sell if you are a chevy person come you think of chevy but they do not necessarily associate with this company, gm, in detroit. The other key question, do you drive a ford truck or a gm truck . Mark fields has taken over at ford for alan mulally. As i look at the bloomberg terminal, earnings are forecast to decline by 18 . What does mark fields need to do with ford starting today . The reason earnings are down is because they are spending so much on new vehicles, especially the f 150 with the aluminum body. That is the dreamliner for alan mulally. It helped them launch this innovative, lightweight, fuelefficient truck, but it is hard to make and they have to deliver on that. That is the most important thing for mark fields as well as the other 20 some launches around the world. Jamie butters, thank you so much. Coming up in the next hour, Michelle Palouse so will be our guest host. This is bloomberg surveillance, gaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. This place will stop at 4 00 this afternoon, the nation transfixed by the world cup. I think things will end at 4 00 p. M. Johnson will be on 69th street. Scarlet fu will be north of the city. I may join adam johnson at our Favorite French restaurant. 69th street. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene with scarlet fu and adam johnson. Time for morning must read. Henry winter is writing for the telegraph. I was in a Little French place choirsnd the american chanting i believe that we will win simply reflects the rise of the sport in their country and that they are now a respected force in the global game. I think that captures some of the enthusiasm here today. We go to Michael Reagan of bloomberg news. The equity market just shuts down for it just shuts down. Of year forlow time stock trading, but definitely some the bloomberg mouse slows down . It gets a little rowdy. Uncharacteristically rowdy. Albertson, does it stop for today . For today only. Anything that has any affiliation with belgium waffle house has made it clear that they do not serve belgian waffles. They say we do not serve belgian waffles, we have sweet bread. Germany, algeria it looks like the simpsons. Midfield moving the ball around. What wontou what, be the simpsons is germanyfrance. That is july 4. Are a sophisticate. I am not sophisticated, i am just trying to get into it. Maybe at charlotte they will give me a plate of french fries. Will you keep watching the world cup if the u. S. Loses . Tweet us. That will be a good one. You kind of wonder whether it will last. We will look at how the markets a line with global data coming up on surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning from new york city. Tom keene, scarlet fu, adam johnson. Adam johnson has top headlines. Six people are dead after sunni insurgents hit a mosque with mortar shells. The attack on the shrine in 2006 triggered years of violence. The shrine is more than 1000 years old, and the United Nations says more than 2400 iraqis were killed in june, the countrys deadliest month this year. Israel carried out a series of airstrikes in gaza. Leaders see that leaders say they will invade if that is what it takes to stop rocket fire. Three teenagers from israel were found near the west bank town. Israel suspects they were kidnapped by hamas. The u. K. President says he is ending the truce with prorussian rebels, sending troops again to fight them. President poroshenko says hes talks with russia and european leaders have failed. T could escalate the fighting i wish there was something positive in that, tom. Some tough headlines this morning. , 11. 57. Who thought we would be at 19. 58 on s p futures . The answer is a lot of strategists. The equity markets nailed it. Not so, the bond market. Way away from consensus. Nymex crude at 105. 82. Rose. Ing utilities not boring, the return of the s p 500. Michael regan is with us for the hour. He scours every Research Report written on wall street. What are the pros telling you about how to make money in the second half . I was reading a note from oppenheimer, andrew berkeley, and one of the things that is concerning a lot of people is the bull market is so old now, about 5. 25 years old. We have gone more than two years without a correction and a 10 drop, so that is making people nervous. Berkeley is saying it is an old bull market, but that does not mean that you cannot make money. Energy companies which led the rally in the last quarter. Technology and industrials. Part of the rationale is everyone expects to improve eventually. Can anyonerds get behind materials . One of the worst performers in the Second Quarter right now. Wasnd last year i think it the worst performer. Such a will such a bad performer. Really a diverse group, not looking at the bull market, Robert Albertson with us from Sandler Oneill as well. Robert albertson with his definitive note on the linkage with economics and energy mark and equity markets. Was this a janet yellen chart . I think in total 20 trillion more in Central Banks around the world since monetary ease began. You have a very strong argument today in the journal. It is very clear this has left us with a lot of things that are not good, one of which is too much money diverted into asities and other risks opposed to the balance that you would want. It is going to correct. Robert albertson, one of the best things about your work is your charge and youre dampening, the way you get out of the trend. Do you presume that given the bull market, Michael Regan identifies, that we can get out of this in a controlled and smooths manner, or will we have ugly days in equity markets . I dont know. I assume the volatility will change. It is a big thing that has to be reversed over time carefully. The Biggest Issue is the addiction everyone now has to low rates. That if it is not there, nothing works anymore. That is not good. That has corroded an awful lot of our economy. That is the part that people have to get dehitched from. Maybe housing finally gets going in the way that it should, but this rate thing is too long in the tooth. Mike, you have the challenge of having to write a column every single day on u. S. Stocks, ad what has been described as boring market. What is the common theme that keeps popping up every time you talk to people and you try to write a column that addresses something new . Everyone assumes a correction is inevitable. Is the big worry is him of the lack of what to worry about. We have had so many acute crises, from the europe debt crisis, to the u. S. Credit rating problem and Near Government shutdowns. You almost get more concerns when you cannot identify the next biggest worry. Right now we are basically flat for the last few weeks, so really everyone is waiting for the next day. We have earnings starting next week, and gdp in july. Corporate Profit Growth and some of the big ones. What you and i care about as opposed to some gdp brazil particularly. 55 . Ian a screen yesterday, 50 ran a screen yesterday, 55 earnings growth. Brazil. You have a synthesis of strategist like Robert Albertson writing every day. Have we changed our behavior to where we think a down market is down . N or 8 we are not psychologically prepared for 18 there market for an 18 there market an market. Obviously everyone considers it a healthy mini correction, if you will. If we get a genuine 10 correction, i think people will take it a lot harder than they have in the past. You mentioned the earnings season coming up. What are you hearing in terms of the preannouncement . It does not feel like there has been a lot . There has been no real spike in estimates guiding lower. It is pretty much flat as far