Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140825 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance August 25, 2014

Sector pmi before that. The dallas fed is going to look at manufacturing. The london markets are closed today. It is a bank holiday. We dont know when that is going to happen in london, but they happen from time to time. We will get the new home sales at 10 00. I thought this was in august yarder. Forget about it. Futures are up five. The 10 year yield is up 2. 3. The euro dollar has plunged. There is no other way to put it. That is a while number four mario draghi. There is a nice spread between the crude. Were on to the next screen. Were looking at the equity nirvana. This is a low number. The dow is over 17,000. The german 10 year, that is not a misprint,. 93. That is stunning given where we were last week. Lets go to the monitor to show what is keeping Esther Draghi up at night. This is the german twoyear. This is all you need to know amid a new low in the italian 10 year. The ramifications are back on the United States. Belowa jump condition zero. By any definition, this is germany flat on its back. I feel it we just keep saying the same thing. I keep expecting for this to stop. I expect being able to say those words. We have the same thing happening again. We have the french government. We look at the newspapers this morning. This is scarlet fu. The lastust happened two hours. Theres a shakeup in france there in the president has asked the government Prime Minister government. W the Education Minister and the economy minister called on them tax cuts for households. I think you are better at this than any of us. Explain if this was forced on him. You how hard shows this is to do in your. Oreo druggie says real money from government into the economy. An interviewe is where the finance minister says things that arent completely in accordance with the Prime Minister in france. Monday, we are forming a new government. This is hard to do. It is easy to use say in say in jackson hole. It is hard to do. We have a new government tomorrow . I dont know if it will happen that quickly. He has to form a new cabinet. The backdrop to all this is that frances economy is stagnating. For thes been no growth last two months. I am thinking about the little mermaid. Howrance cant figure out feels about deficits. They also have real structural problems that they need to fix. Mario draghi addressed both of those. This is been going on for five years. Spending more money is what they need to figure out how to do. Islamic state militants solidify their hold on syria. Now the Northeastern Province has become the first province fully outside of assads control. I am going of syria, to call it northcentral. I thought it was farther out toward turkey. It is not. It is closer to damascus. Theyre trying to hold onto gains in northern iraq. Second they captured the biggest city in june. The u. S. Has been bombing net position the last couple of weeks. As this was happening, and al gave back a journalist. That was a surprise. We will continue to follow this one as well. Our third frontpage story is a company news. Consideringis moving to a lower tax country. This surprised me. Canada, of all places. They are in talks to buy something in canada. They would move its headquarters to canada. The top Corporate Tax rate is lower print. Great hockey player for the maple leafs. He set up this huge iconic franchise for coffee and donuts. Could there be a more Canadian Firm to have done this with . We used to eat breakfast there. Hockey players use to want to go to the event states for low taxes. 2012, canada reduced their Corporate Tax rate. I was stunned. Canada. Canada . You want to play for the Ottawa Senators instead of the new york rangers. Do we know that this is an inversion move . It is being reported as that. We will check in later with erik atzker who will compare it Dunkin Donuts. Futures are up six. James glassman is our guest host. Martin lindstrom is with us. It is back to school. We will look at some of the ,yths of bricks and mortar biology and truth and lies about why we buy. The economists worldwide i what janet yellen had to say . We had the worst recession in memory. Later, people are saying we are close to the feds mandates. This usually takes seven years. Can she work in a vacuum. I refuse to believe we can work in a vacuum away from these abrupt moves in europe. That is what we have been dealing with all years all year. I think this is a reminder that we are very connected. Europe is a big partner of ours in this process. The irony is they are struggling because of the crisis. Why is the euro staying where it is . That would bring a lot of relief for the europeans if it would lower. Week euro need to be for jim glassman to benefit . If i were evening the world out, i would have the euro at parity. Something like the japanese did. John norman is the master of the universe. Noted. We want to bring in martin lindstrom. We are talking about burger king early on to make a tax inversion deal. They are suffering a little bit. Demographically, millenials dont like to eat there is much. Absolutely. Mcdonald back in the day introduced salads. They had never been associated with being healthy. This is an amazing chain in canada. Canadians love it. They are looking at acquiring that company. That will go in their portfolio. Research on this. There is a mushroom cheeseburger. There is an a1 they can cheeseburger. There are chicken fries. Nothing has changed at burger king. They have made a couple of allowances. They have more financial engineering. Is theperception consumer walks into mcdonalds and they want to have a hamburger. Theyre not buying the salad. This is the same case with burger king. That sounds like jackson hole. A baconking at cheeseburger. Scarlet will bring you company news. Pay 8 billion for intermune. They are developing a treatment for a rare lung disease. This was the driver behind the acquisition. Malaysia air is considering job cuts in review of the aircraft orders. The ceo may be replaced. The carrier may lead need to lay off 1 5 of its workers. They suffered to disasters this year. Fewer new partners at Goldman Sachs this fall. The bank will probably name no more than 70. There are slower income trades. That is company news this morning. Angela merkel is committing acts of diplomacy. She is changing germanys role in the world and being more aggressive. We will talk to you about that after the break. Surveillanceberg on bluebird television. Good morning. Futures are up on this monday morning. London is closed. A bond markets are on the move. As a perfect time to speak with the deputy chief Investment Officer at pimco. Watch for that this afternoon on street smart. Good morning everyone. This is liberty surveillance or coi am tom keene. Scarlet, you look to germany. The chancellor is managing down expectations before a meeting with russian and ukrainian leaders tomorrow. She made comments in a Television Interview after returning from kiev this weekend. Hans nichols joins us from berlin. Are we to conclude that her meetings with key of for not productive . From her perspective, she pledged new money and the need for us to have united nato and a potential round of sanctions. This is classic. We can say a lot of things about her, she knows her way around the summit. All she is doing is managing expectations. She is tempering them downward. They will have a facetoface meeting. They been trading accusations ukraine. Ading the am interested about interview that she did over the weekend. There is a quote that i pulled out of that. We cant just stand to one side, they been doing that for 50 years. It seemed significant. It seemed like an aggressive change as germany sees its role in the world. Think that was in context of arming the kurds. Theres been a shift in public opinion. They need to start arming the kurds and stop isis. Try to walk aays fine line when she talks to Vladimir Putin and maintain a relationship with them. Europeano drag her allies along on sanctions. She is been strong on sanctions. It will hurt hurt economy the way most. France . Is going on in would you please explain the collapse and ruination . This is simple. I will do an analogy. Imagine if jack wu were running around saying that obama was harming the economy. Obama would find out a way to dismiss him. That is essentially what happened. Over the weekend, the economy minister gave some strong comments saying that what the president was doing was rating. He economy erie they are forming a new government. It is a way to get rid of the economy minister. He played a big spoiler role in the General Electric purchase. Him isquestion about good cop bad cop. Did they get a better deal from ge when they bought the Energy Assets . They got a good deal. They got job guarantees for 2000 people. They got a good deal from ge. Counterbid. Sed this they extracted concessions from ge. Ge got a lot of good out of this. Irony is that was exactly what mario draghi said europe should be doing. Is that how difficult it is to do that . As long as merkel sticks with of structural rules, you are in a bind. I will give you another analogy. In 2010, obama is calling for more stimulus. Republicans are say no more spending. And everybody else in europe including mario draghi says you need to stimulate aggregate the manned. You need to get german consumers to spend more. Maybe she had a change of heart because the gdp figure was so bad last week. Maybe she had a change of heart. Were seeing that play out of the markets. Hans nichols, thank you so much. We want to give you a heads up. From nyu will be joining us as the guest host. He was attending the jackson hole symposium over the weekend. He will give us his take next hour on oberg surveillance. We are streaming on your tablet on smartphone. Good morning, everyone. Our trivia question for monday. What is an appropriate president ial vacation . We will discuss this. He is back at work today. I think he worked his whole vacation from what i could tell. None of us are on vacation. Ism johnson said enough, he going to be president ial and take a vacation. We start with the hamas leader killed by an israeli missile. He handled their finances. There will be more attacks if an and warned gaza residents to stay way. Libya loses control of the airport. The facility was virtually destroyed in the fighting. Earthquake could cost insurers at least 1 billion. Rattled winequake country. This is the largest bay area quake since 1989. The as in that stadium where , 25 had the earthquake years ago. That was candlestick. I think six people were critically hurt. It seems like everybody i know is from northern california. Said that my family would force me to move home. That is still pretty severe. California shrugs it off. My reading is it was more than just wine bottles. There is some serious damage up there. Were a lot of people writing after jackson hole. Rendon greely found religion. Transcripts ofng the popes press conferences. He says interesting things. Are you a bigger nerd than i am . You win. He was asked about u. S. Intervention in iraq. You must stop the unjust aggressor. I say stop by some means. It is an approval of the idea of force. It doesnt mean he is giving a blanket condoning of force. Sometimes youhat must stop an evil aggressor. You studied at northwestern. By any definition, these tensions dampen the economy. They make people cautious. Where these stresses are popping up, this is part of the world reduces 2 of the worlds gdp. There is a recovery going on in asia. The economic benefits are hard to ignore. This morning with ukraine and russia, that has an impulse in europe. A third ofroduces the worlds gdp. They are a big deal. They are struggling more from the existential crisis. Made those comments and people thought the whole thing was going to blow up. Moment. A very scary that is reverberating through the region. He said there needs to be stimulus. Is that even possible . Probably not. We have the same challenge here. We rely on the central bank to do most of the action. It is probably not possible because of the politics. Is 2. 8 standard deviations week. That is a big deal. We are going to discuss jackson hole. The discussion about the labor market continues coming up. Good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance. Brendan greeley and scarlet fu are with me. Markets are on the move. I did not expect this this morning. Futures are up seven. The euro dollar, we just got a 130. This is a significantly weaker euro. Germany is disappointing. Yields are lower, lower, lower in europe this morning. This comes off jackson hole. The theme is the american job market. It is improving. Some 200,000 jobs are being created. Why are so miserable in our labor economy . Why are those worries front and center. Wage growth is nonexistent. For too many, there are simply no jobs. This is a good labor market but the trends are improving and going in the right direction. The measures we look to to figure out how much unemployment air is are missing. There is a lot of parttime work. There are people who want fulltime jobs but cant get them. A lot of people dropped out of the market. When you look around, there is a lot more unemployment then you pick up. I want to show you this. Get in here and look at this nastiness of jackson hole. Look at this map. Are you kidding me . She reads this stuff . You read this stuff. Basically, this is a lot of map that says that wages are sticky. It is hard to get people to take a cuts in the recession. People accept pay cuts. Anothera newspaper and speech to say the thing we have known for 70 years. A new way tolways say the same old thing. They are struggling with wages. They are not going anywhere. In, we are the paper talking about wage rigidities. Are we going to see rage wage reflate deflation wage deflation . Is close toge inflation. Some people are seeing a real cuts. If you dont have a job this is the heart of the matter. Whatsnt the issue under conditions wages will increase . The laborthink when markets gets stronger and unemployment goes down, there will be more pressure on wages and people will get normal wages. We havent gotten there yet. The unemployed rate is down to about 6 . Is notalize the rate telling the entire story. There is a lot of hidden unemployment. We mentioned that. Is it possible to look at Janet Yellens time at the fed and say one thing she has really accomplished is she is like a renaissance painter of unemployment. Everything was flat and we just had this single measure. Detail ofe this rich what unemployment is and what causes it and what is driving it. At least she is change the conversation and how we think about it. The fed is focused on these issues. They look at unemployment and know something is wrong. Wages are not going up. She is giving voice to this debate. I think this is important. I want to pin you down. Have you adapted . Within 2015 . Sted we hold the same view. We think this is all a theoretical debate. Nobody knows yet. This is all about will we see signs that this hidden slack starts to come back in. That is a new one. Martin lindstrom is the uyology. B aboute seen a shift paying for experiences rather than buying stuff. Stable jobt a very market. As it improves and wage increases, will people revert back to buying stuff . Is this a fundamental shift we will not return back . Consumers have changed a lot erie it to things i am seeing is consumers are running on two tracks. One track is they want to have things they can buy cheap. The other thing is they want to buy experiences now. That is interesting. We have not seen the shift before. People will go online to buy cheap stuff and then go to Retail Stores to buy the experience. This is going to cause problems for the amazons of the world. This is a critical condition. We so broke as a nation that all that matters is price and there might be retail dynamics but there is not a lot down below . It is an issue. The ceos are so afraid of being different. They are like cattle going down the same path. They are all competing on price. Lets sell and experience. As soon as we have an experience, sales are going up. What is an experience . Onnaked young boys outside fifth avenue. Are you talking about Abercrombie Fitch . That is what they are doing. You can smell things and taste things rather than things wrapped in plastic. We are human beings. Look . That the almost. What you wrote. What you wrote really resonated with me. This is exactly how we run our household. Everything is automated. Paper towels, automatically. This comes from amazon. We dont leave the house to get stuff unless there is a reason we are going to enjoy it. We did a study in north carolina. Housewives are sick and tired of doing shopping. We infused gaming into the equation. Why dont we do a Stock Exchange in the stock market. When it you go when the prices go up and down. Bergdorf . Do that for light on the first floor. Is this demand the pricing for milk . Why not . Why shouldnt the prices go up and down . He wants to move her eyes milk section. We are also going to bring up how the fed talks about slack in the labor market. The are starting to see opposite. Our single best chart is coming up next on surveillance. We welcome all of you to new york city. Scarlet fu has our top headlines this monday morning. A feud over how to fix the French Economy except the coalition. The socialist governments resignation was offered. The jobless rate is above 10 . But of Ebola Outbreak in africa, congo is repaving reporting 13 deaths. That his bad days. That was sir Richard Attenborough as the mad dreamer who created jurassic park. He had a distinguished stage and screen career. He won an oscar for directing the movie don the. The thing that is wonderful s, Steve Mcqueen press. The there is a scene with Richard Attenborough and he and his people are gunned down. That single scene change this. Theven before that, he was first detective. He was in the longest running play in the west end. Prime minister cameron mentioned that in his tweet. He changed cowboys thought about life in one scene in the greatest tape. Is going to get a lot of applause at the oscar ceremony. Lets get to the single best chart. The fed is looking for wage inflation. We heard that all week long. There is funny of that in San Francisco. You are doing better if you work in

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