Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140926 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance September 26, 2014

At 9 55. There is a lot of blue chip stock, and i understand that. It is like a story. Looked ate we yesterday, that is the most offered the most awkward. It would break a window because it is that big. President obama speaking at the Global Health security. He is he has left new york, is back in washington. Ukraine allia, needing to talk energy. Finally, indias Prime Minister is going to make his First Official visit to the u. S. And he has a little summons as a background from a decade ago. What does he think, it is papers or i am told it can be delayed until after his visit. He is going to be meeting ge. S in the u. S. Pepsi, lets do a data check now. After the pullback yesterday, s p futures, 2000, we are looking at 1964 this morning. 1. 2745. Dollar out of the second screen, and well over 15. 6. Rent crude under 97 the one story this morning is gold as the ruble continues to weaken. This is a way cool chart. This is a quarterly chart back 20plus years, and this is the volatility of the ruble. Like, what do you call them, standard deviation . Exactly. We have spiked up here, creating a new volatility and challenge for mr. Putin. To our front page this friday morning, it is a busy one. We start with what is happening at this moment. British parliament deciding whether to join a u. S. Led coalition against the islamic threat. David cameron speaking at the moment on the floor of parliament. There he is speaking. I will take some more interventions. What i believe a successful outcome would look like the motion does not endorse airstrikes on syria and rules out using the debate there is so much more interesting than in congress, in washington. They really get going. Once,brown and cameron over iraq and bringing bodies home. They really get going. Like Prime Ministers questions, the Prime Minister gets up and takes questions from the floor, and it is aggressive. Imagine if senators went after president obama the way and the house of commons destroyed in the blitz in 1941, rebuilt in 1950. A spectacular room for this debate. The Prime Minister just said they would not commit ground forces, it airstrikes are in the realm of possibility. Commit tod they will airstrikes in iraq, but not syria, scarlet . Believe that is correct. Our second frontpage story, in washington a big guessing game going on. Who will replace eric holder . He willnced yesterday be resigning. He will stay on the job until his successor has been confirmed, and the president has not yet picked a successor. A couple big names have been floated solicitor general donald for ellie this is a kid from the bronx. Plain and simple. He was tapped as a child to go to stuyvesant. Tracking findsis from the banks, and the 2 as we all know, a lightning rod for criticism from the right. We will talk about what he did for and to the financial industry. And a warning from Security Experts about a software bug that could be used to take control of all of your computers around the world. It is called shell shock because it comes with Software Built into more than this . Do i enjoy getting it might just happen. It is connected to these Opensource Community platforms, and experts need to figure out a patch to repair it. You could be in the ice rink this weekend and get this on your mobile phone . I hope not. It covers computers, mobile phones i imagine there will be some very busy i. T. Professionals over the weekend. Only affected 500,000 machines. Only 500,000. In this hour, Parliament Debates joining the coalition. The Islamic State has crystallized a need for a new and Foreign Policy is being crafted with an entirely new calculus to prepare you an entirely new calculus. To prepare you, our guest served as undersecretary for secretary clinton. StateWilliam Cohan on the of wall street. What is the distinction for Prime Minister cameron, for president obama . What is front and center . For obama, it is what happens with respect to parliament in britain, now debating the issue. The last time he was thinking of taking action, the u. K. Decided they were not going to do it. It undermined his readability and position at home. This time it will be different. It is highly likely, as ed as thed add head of the Labor Department has said, only in iraq has the government given the consent to the bombing. It has not done that in syria. So the raf is going to go into the coalition and be very effective. You combine your work at kennedy with economics as well for secretary clinton. You have traveled numerous times to meet the governments of the east and the arab states. So far you have the gulf states agreeing to participate in the bombing, and that gives the coalition credibility. The real question is what role americans are going to play in helping to make sure that the targeting is effective. So far in iraq has been some benefit and not much with syria. You need very targeting calming, and we need intelligence to do that. We dont have that yet. Headlines crossing the u. K. Would act without a vote on syria in an emergency but then go to parliament afterwards on syrian action. He also says there is a strong case that i have a delicate question. Why do we feel we need to get permission from syria when syria has killed 200,000 of its own citizens with chemical weapons . We do not feel that way, but the u. K. Has had some issues. Up until recently they said they would like to get permission from the government to bomb one of its territories. Scarlet is right they have to do more in an emergency situation. He wants to maintain his flexibility. To precludewant that possibility. To the drama of the moment, the ghosts of 2003. Cameron faces different ghosts from tony blair and the legacy the United Kingdom has, versus from president s bush. Compare and contrast those ghosts. Blair was heavily criticized for going along to readily going along too readily with the americans. And that still is this and that still exists. And it is still very emotional. They dont want to be seen as doing what exactly americans say, but there are a lot of brits that are out there fighting for isis, so they have to be part of the mix. Intelligence is critical as well as some bombing. What is fascinating here, 17th century age history, that was about religion as well. Does the u. S. Have any kind of working within a sectarian war and being successful . It is complicated. I think the u. S. Is trying to sort out what is going on. The notion of the border between syria and iraq has been almost completely eroded. The border now is really translucent. Anyone can go back and forth across it. And the northern border, because you have all the kurds going backandforth and that is the news over the weekend between turkey and the United States. Turkey is worried because they want some of the kurds to go north, that they do not want militant kurds going north and supporting kurds in turkey to too great a degree. Also setting us up for the weekend, and we turn to something lighter here, derek jeters tour continues. We are already on this . He had a gamewinning single in the bottom of the ninth to give the yankees a 65 victory over baltimore last night. A walkoff hit. Yorks his last game in new. He will play out the rest of his career, what is left of it aree and cal ripken junior two of the great heroes because theyre goodbye parties were really emotional events. And yours from the state department was, too, right . Yes, but not of this caliber. It is important to see that people are loyal to their team and have rate fan following. Cal ripken and derek jeter are two of those. He will not play shortstop, but he will probably dh. Ted williams hit a home run in he sat out the rest of the season after that. There for the last at bat. On andid go out incredible high note. Even a red sox fan like me can appreciate that. He played in baltimore, in fact. It was really interesting. This is like red sox royalty. We could end the show right here. We have to talk about the iphone. Back, what are they doing wrong . Institutions to figure out what is going wrong. Scandal you are watching bloomberg surveillance. It is our twitter question of the day. It wraps up this week, too. Which poses a bigger threat . Thea, shellshocked, or Islamic State . Tweet us at surveillance surveillance. Adam, we are focused on apple as well. Concerned about the iphone 6 and the ios 8 software. Bill cohan, one of our guests for the hour, i want to go to you on this. You have written a couple of books on institutional breakdowns, with what happened at duke with the lacrosse and the and wall street with financial crisis. Is the commonality or some sort of lesson i will help apple get back on track . I think we are far away from the kind of breakdown that happened at their stearns or even at duke with the lacrosse scandal. They had this incredible rollout, 10 million phones, and they have a Software Glitch. They will fix it, im sure. There is a lot of pressure on tim cook to do the rollout and get it right. I think he did handle it well. On the backend you, you have software problems. There was the antenna problem, the maps problem. Is there something institutionally that apple is not getting right . I dont buy that. When there are 10 million bmws released, a few of them are not going to work. It is terrible that people have their shutdowns it is terrible that people have their cell phones shut down and not work. It is a new product. It is an important implants that everyone uses day in and day out now. When something does not work and you cannot make a phone call one of the most incredible products ever that you have in the palm of your hand all of that Computing Power and by and large they have done an incredible job. It is a Software Glitch that i assume that they will fix. They have to. Does everyone get up in arms when there is a Samsung Galaxy issue . No. It is the most valuable company in the world. Everyone is focused on apple after steve jobs, so he gets extra special scrutiny. In our next hour, Christina Warren has some thoughts on this. Whether apple has turned a new leaf. We will discuss. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, aj, and i will be right back. It is gorgeous, and hopefully on this friday with the president back in washington, less trafficked. ,t has been a little chilly wouldnt you say . I had to read i had to wear a sweatshirt when i ran yesterday in the park. One of 4, 5, and six towers going up in midtown, that is a source of conversation. In the distance, 157. If you stand at the top of 157, you can see William Cohans front yard in connecticut. This is bloomberg surveillance. This is one of the most wrought one of the most widely read stories, coming from michael lewis, famed author. He writes about the occupational hazards on wall street. I picked this one out because i liked it a lot, this idea that we focus too much on models and quantity of announcements. Seen how we have tried to model out how mortgages would go bad and whether that would all play out. Bill cohan, our guest host for the hour, you read this column two times, you said. I like to Read Everything that michael writes at least two times. This is an important issue. The culture on wall street seems to be all the rage. The new york fed at the end of the at the end of october will have a daylong symposium where they address behavior on wall street. He makes an important point in that when people come to wall street they are wideeyed and idealistic and want to work hard. I want to get paid and do the right thing. Over time, the culture changes them. They think they will change the world, and wall street culture changes them and they start behaving badly and get us into all sorts of trouble. His point is you have to be vigilant about that because no one else is going to take care of you. You need to take care of yourself as you go into this environment. He points out that people who work on wall street are primarily loyal to their product rather than the firm they work for. Your goal is not your goal is to not alienate people. You do not always have your firms beth interest in mind. Bob worked at Goldman Sachs, a very different culture at the time that you worked there. When i was at lazard, people felt quite loyal to lazard. After the financial crisis, when firms blew up, when they never thought they could possibly low up, they are in free agent mode. Bill cohan, who worked at lazard, was in operations and trading and getting things done. And bob hormats, providing intellectual content from your point of view, did you see the culture change toward mr. Lewis cynicism . Oh, yes. It has become more transactional, much more focused on the markets in which people are operating. The notion of firm loyalty, starting with a firm and ending up in that firm, does not exist. The other was yaz. Rmats is sort of like and there is a lot of interaction in terms of client loyalty to the firm and firm loyalty to the clients. Clients want confidence that their are one or two people that there are one or two people who have been there a long time and will be there today or tomorrow and one or two years from now. Salary and bonus register so high that you have to create that transaction. If i dont make 4 million, i am a failure. Loweringd of compensation for all people compensation has come down a great deal in the last few years, but they still pay people too much. They do not have to pay people as much. This is fascinating. Yet tos still not fixed i dont think so. Coming up, peter or zag of want top you will keep it right here on bloomberg television. We will be right back. Good morning. Right now on the floor of parliament in the u. K. , ed speaking right now as the u. K. Deliberates on whether to get involved with the coalition in iraq. We will continue to monitor these headlines. Actually, he has finished speaking. That is a different member of parliament, but we will continue to monitor these headlines as they come out. Standing behind the two leaders who sit in the middle of parliament. Lets go to headlines this friday morning. The death toll from the Ebola Outbreak hops 2900. Tops 2900. Ts it continues its spread. One and half of them are in liberia. Thereions have top 1700 in the last three weeks. President obama wants to shield u. S. Service members from high interest that. The administration will propose tougher financial protections for personal loans, making sure inquiring minds want to know, . Here is kim jong un he has failed to show up for a major policy meeting in pyongyang. He has not made a Public Policy meeting in a month. Those are top headlines. That is some incredible hair, by the way. Maybe Dennis Rodman knows where kim jong un is. We learned in school about the clash of civilizations. There are foreign policies for america. Here in 2015, maybe it is simply Foreign Policy fatigue. We look at ukraine in the middle east but we take our eyes off asia. Is serving with the president and secretary clinton. We mentioned north korea, bringing the ever present problem away from our discontents right now. They are never dormant for a long time. Sometimes they do things that are very unpredictable. Notbigger story that has been focused on, i think relations between china and the u. S. Are improving considerably. Obama will be meeting with gigi paying. They want to reduce tensions that were problems several months ago, and there are also improvements in japanesechinese relations, to help lower the decibel level of their suit of their dispute. The visit by the president will positive, and that will help stabilize things and stabilize situation in eastern asia. Expected, unexpected, is that the new Foreign Policy of america . Now our policy is expect the unexpected . I think we also have to realize that america has to play a leadership role in dealing with a whole range of issues. One of the things the president talked about dealing with was isis. What is happening in the region is you have instability in northern nigeria. Libya is falling apart. You have al qaeda, this Spinoff Group from al qaeda. You have a lot of instability in the region, and it is going to be extremely difficult, not just to do with isis but with a wide range of issues. Once you deal with them, you have to store record ability you have to restore credibility in the eyes of the sunnis. All of these are parts within parts, wheels within wheels of a formidable agenda. Then you have ukraine. Did the president , in your put a new foot forward, with his speech . He did a good thing in reasserting that america wanted to play a leadership role, but also that he wanted to do it with a coalition. Now the question is can you make the Coalition Work effectively . There is concern whether you can do with isis, but also with a range of other destabilizing forces in the area. And can you establish indibility among the sunnis baghdad . You have to bring them not in but other regions. Isis may decide that if you bomb it in syria, it will that shows the complexities that are out there bank. Here is my morning must read. In italy, i thought this was a superb essay. A gathering of the modern of metternich, alexander i, and talleyrand is also a dream. There are none. The leaders we have would their movements across borders and dealing with them is much more difficult. How is this for wall street, bill cohan, to deal with the distraction off to the side . I think wall street has a business to do. Raising financing, and if the Capital Markets are strong, wall street throws the stuff off and it does not have much effect. And you read david brooks this is the greatest time to be alive and we should celebrate that. And i think wall street takes that attitude. The markets are strong. The debt markets are incredibly strong. Kind of financing, that huge amount of capital that at raised for this company high valuation, that speaks to you are working with secretary kissinger. Whereextraordinary to see china is. I was there bank opening up i was there opening up w

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