Pumping on this for six years in a partly for whatever he is going to do tomorrow night, continues to refuse to deal with congress. Shameless plug, you can watch the president speech right here on Bloomberg Television. Coverage begins at 8 00 p. M. Eastern time. Florida, there was a shooting early this morning on the Florida State campus. Three students were wounded at the universitys library. Police shot and killed the suspected gunman. Officials sent an alert to students to seek shelter. Another sign that china may need more economic stimulus to hold a slowdown. One gauge of chinese factory int to a sixmonth low novembers adjusted monetary easing is failing to boost growth. Chinas economy is headed for its lowest fullyear growth in more than two decades. Wants answers from the Japanese Company that made faulty air bags. Senate committee holds a hearing today on air blamed the number of deaths, more than 8 million cars equipped with takata airbags in the u. S. Have been recalled. So far, only recalling high humidity areas. Safety regulators want to make the recall nationwide. The weather is bad and getting worse. There could be as much as seven feet of snow in some areas before it stops. That is two hockey goals. Miles from rochester, new york to pennsylvania. When the temperatures start to rise this weekend, the big problem will be flooding. Business as usual. Are you nostalgic . I am the stall took for this. I cannot convey how we have seen this before. It is the blizzard of 1966 them and when men were men and your father was out shoveling the driveway. Eight people have died. The big difference, it is like donner pass snow in nevada, except it is heavy and very dangerous for people shoveling it. Wet, lake heavy, effect snow. And without the lake effect, it would be it is an intensity of the snowfall because of the water. But the houses are to withstand that, right . This is totally business as usual. In austria go, this tree signs are three feet above my hands. The band is the band has been stuck on its tour bus outside buffalo. It is unusual. It is unusual that it is early in the year. Data check. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities. Futures, negative eight. 10 year yield, 2. 31 . Oil, 74. 32. Lets go on to the second screen. Under 17. Ill yen and all ofn our hours of surveillance this morning. Yen not a major story for you . It is a huge story in it will continue to be. Decades. S two this has been the stronger word weaker japanese yen and we have taken a new, abrupt abenomics down here all of the sudden, we deviations rd that would be the blue line. It is way, way off. Im just doing this for jim fancy map degree. This is the new leg down to show that persistency. Taiwan, korea,r singapore all of the countrys second feet with japan for exports. Math for thehe day. The president speaks this evening. , deeplyand texas divided in america. The chief executive office of this Principle Group spent more time in america than his native scotland, that is probably frightening, and particular interest in retail and what it does for the melting pot of america as they aspire at places like macys and bloomingdales and others. It is an honor to have both of you here as the president speaks. How will the rest of the world look at the interesting argument that is unique to American Immigration . Edge of the world will be looking at what he does on skilled immigrants, visas for tech workers. That may not be the biggest political issue, but it is the issue inusiness immigration. Those who cannot get the right people here because a lot of them are immigrants. We know Principle Group and we associate that with iowa, do you employ people in india to answer your telephones . Not to enter the telephones, but to do that ground services. With a decent sized this business in india. It happens to be, you go for peoples competitive advantages. In the 7 00 hour, and it in company with business affairs. Moving up the ladder. I was struck by what you just said thomas speaking in the hightech thesis alongside broader Immigration Reform, this seems like the companies out west of facebook, google, they have really found their lobbying feet. They have become obsessed with this. When i was in the d. C. Bureau a year ago, they were showing up all the time making the same point, hightech thesis, hightech pieces. I wonder for the president is doing tonight is not a way to sneak that in . I would hope so. Those companies have already employed every american that of come to work for them. It is not just for copies out west. Companieske us like us, it is a major challenge. It is not that it is a huge number. It is more about growing businesses and employ people here in america. You said before we went on air that macys is the secondlargest attraction for tourists in new york city. I going to macys and it doesnt play well in arizona and other states. It plays well in new york city. Absolutely. Your question earlier about what the world things about obama will say this evening, it is about the aspirational quality of america. Every country i travel around the world have some aspiration of coming here or living here. They seeltimately, these kinds of conversations as a natural progression. Andhat is frightening, jim i are related like four times. His were royalty, mine were trunks drunks. Mine were in trouble for stealing sheep. Maybe you are in fact related. Jim, what can a country like japan went from our immigration policy gekko japan facing the democratic needing to address the lack of available workers. The response of japanese business, partly to that effect you mentioned and partly to the very prolonged period of high yen tom talked about, the reaction has been to move reduction offshore. 20 years ago, they built cars in japan. Now the Japanese Companies build cars here or in europe. Their design and headquarters remains in japan. That is intractable unless at some point they liberalize immigration policy. But they are going to do it a lot slower than we are. It is culturally very difficult for them. Are we talking about cultural problems . The germans not running deficits is why you have this impasse between fiscal and Monetary Policy in europe, which is one of the two main reasons why europe wont grow in the next year or two dont. They have a tight fiscal policy to go with an appropriately loose Monetary Policy, and that is an impasse that makes the economy week. , thumb up oringer thumbs down on this regional season . Thumbs up. Plural, two. They were at 90 degrees. Cheaper oil does it. This is great. With all due respect, the president tonight at 8 00 p. M. Our twitter question of the day likes to do it from the east wing. Tweet us. We will be right back on bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Comingretary of commerce up in the 8 00 hour. Global entrepreneur summit in rocco. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene with scarlet fu and Brendan Greeley. tis the season to take stock of the retail industry. Reporting earnings today with thanksgiving just a week away in a holidays around the corner, it is do or die time for the industry. Our guest host, mortimer singer, which consults on business to government for the Fashion Retail industry. You were just saying this Holiday Season is to thumbs up. We chimed in and said six thumbs up. What is different this season . Which isxury piece, booming still come all of the brands themselves are focusing their energy on the u. S. Luxury customer. In the midmarket, the camilla to affect of these discounts at the top cumulative effect of these discounts at the pump. When you get up to thanksgiving or christmas time with maybe that sitting in your checking account, it makes people feel better. Is interesting you brought up the Luxury Brands focusing on the west market. We hear about how consumers are less and less brand loyal than ever. Do you not see that in the highend . Last quarter, the report of the rep for the 7 in the united 47 in they were up the United States. , that money saved at the pump utica go straight into the economy . It does. Gas is something that people buy every week. They see it as very visible. In a way it is better than a tax cut because the tax cut comes through withholding and injects money to the consumer. But gas is something people feel every day. This is something the obama and Administration Try to do, sneak it in. We learn that is not the way to do it. Its not. Ple see the money second sitting in a checking account, theyre going to spend it. Also, the employment position is so much better. There was a feeling, hey, this is a jobless recovery the last two or three Holiday Season. Maybe my job is still precarious. With unemployment below 6 , the economy generating 200,000 jobs a month, that actually is a very nice background for consumer confidence. We know there will be a lot of Jobs Available on thanksgiving day because more more retailers are opening. Does it really matter if a store is actually open . Yet a couple of retailers that have declared it a nonshopping. Oliday you have those who think it is fun and interesting for everyone to open and others who are stating family values and saying were going to shut on principle. The more time youre open, it does help. No question about it. Whether or not it moves the needle completely, i dont know. Are you going to be pressured into shopping . Im not, because i spend thanksgiving eating roasted oysters and watching football. But a significant number of americans want to shop, it is part of their expected activities. Im calling it mobile thursday. 50 more will be shopping on mobile. Because they are sitting on their couch waiting for their turkey and shopping. Someone was a scarf and a bite under the table with her mobile. One dollar on mobile, that is one dollar taken away from bricks and mortar. To agree with that concept or is it a ratio, a portion of it . Ultimately, the mobile customer becomes an on the channel customer and their five times more valuable. Gap stores as mentioned she day by day managing day by day for the on the customer . Five times more valuable and pushing it all day long. Macys encapsulates that because they have been ahead of the curve. You advised a deal that is bringing macys to abu dhabi. What kind of value is in a macys or bloomingdales brand when what theyre selling is essentially what you can find elsewhere in the middle east . On the on the channel front, one reason they did this abu dhabi announcement was because they wanted to capture those who went to the uae from russia and china and all of the world who would then go home and shop on macys. Com. It is a billboard for them in the middle east. Capture the tourist dollar. What did tesco get wrong . Versus the excitement here . Tesco is basic foods. Macys is for luxury goods. That is one big difference. What tescos strategy in the western out to be was whole foods, and whole foods has that sorted. Insight. S an important me, too doesnt work. It has to be differentiated from the market. How come we dont have a harrods in new york . We have so Many Department stores here. We are getting the nordstrom and human marcus and hudson yards downtown. Do they make money on watches . Watches inreally six the paper. Theyre making a huge amount of money because of the Gross Margins on watches are off the charts. I think you just told me i got taken. We all did. Mortimer singer and Jim Mccaughan. Coming up, and Investment Opportunities in mexico next on bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Negative eight, nine negative seven, dow futures at 53. Yields coming a little bit over the last hour. We need to get to a morning mustread. My morning mustread is on yesterdays fed minutes, which was released in the afternoon. Contributor to bloomberg view. You essentially says, the fed is still pushing ahead because the fiscal policy is not filling in the gap once again, it all rests on Janet Yellens shoulders. The word there, experiment. Jim mccaughan with us. I look at United Kingdom, back to 1936, none of this is his is in the textbooks, is it . No. If you look at the u. S. Fiscal policy after the crisis, there was a big stimulus to the economy by running a deficit for a while. For some peoples taste, it tightened too quickly. I do think the continued growth in the u. S. Is quite rebuffed. The Financial Times did an outstanding piece on what sweden got wrong, raising rates to quickly. Fed being risk of the too early and raising rates . Bloomberg surveillance. There is a risk of this we get it way before now. Sweden did it when unemployment was still up around 8 . Their mistake was to do it so prematurely, i think if the fed is going to raise rates in the next two or three quarters, it is going to be it is not going to be much. I would not be shocked if any years time the fed funds rate is 1 after two races. To me, that is ok in this economy. I feel the probability of choking off the economy by premature rate rise is actually quite low. Is this a problem which a mcafee democracy . You left with Central Banks that can make decisions on their own. Decisions get made in a crisis. We saw that in 2009. We saw that in britain and japan and other places. The Central Banks can do it with her modest degree of independence, but the ecb hasnt been able to because it is not really politically independent. Theres a very strong German Government contingent slowing the ecb down. The end has between fiscal and Monetary Policy is way deeper in europe than it is here. We still have tight fiscal policies in europe with inappropriately Monetary Policy. With an appropriate Monetary Policy. With the fed versus the ecb, the boj, bank of england, which central bank are you looking at the most to set the tone for next year . I think it is still the fed. Imodest tightening think we are looking very closely at the ecb to see if they can get more accommodative in terms of military policy, can they get the rates to zero and get asset purchases going . The politics appear to be stopping them, and that is problematic for europe. Your world doesnt give a damn about this, does it . It is just business as usual. As long as they continue spending bloomberg surveillance. I like it. We will continue these discussions tonight. Our calpine will be hosting our special coverage Mark Halperin will be hosting our special of the president s prime time speech to the nation. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene with Brendan Greeley and scarlet fu. President obama making big changes in immigration policy tonight. He said he is issuing an executive order because lawmakers refuse to tackle the issue. He is expected to remove the meat at risk of deportation front of five million undocumented immigrants. Republicans accuse president obama of exceeding his authority. Goldman sachs fires a junior brought confidential information from the fed into the firm. He joined the company in july and was dismissed a week after the discovery in late september. Another employee who failed to escalate the issue was also let go. They were not identified. The Buffalo Bills want to make you an offer. 10 an hour and tickets to sundays game against the new york jets i know where this is going. You have to estimate you. Ave to shovel snow they will also have to wait for a driving ban to be lifted before they can even start. The bills are planning to play the game as scheduled, but the nfl will have the final say. Those are your top headlines this morning. To see an option instead of an offer. I do not know the jets or the bills are good enough for either of that. There they are. Mated mohammed elerian will volunteer. We hope you will shovel snow. Maybe he is the one making the offer. Based on the news we got earlier this week. First, get a degree in mathematics and become an actuary, a good story to understanding the deviation crash that we all enjoyed in midoctober. Visible Global Investors suggests a clearing of markets as well for 2015. That was sport, wasnt it . Last month was the most fun in trading since about 2009. Like an insurance guy that doesnt have real money we have real money, tom. Pension obligations hammered here as we enjoyed bond voluntary volatility. They will smooth it. They did not really notice. Remember, the pension liability cant be withdrawn like a bank deposit. Part of the deal is they have to stay there. The next time you consult a retailer, just say that. All you have to do is smooth it. Deals everyto do day. It is very different. There was a time in nearly 2000s when smoothing those quotes scared regulators smoothing scared regulators. The problem and the confusion is, banks have liquid liabilities, the deposits can be withdrawn any time, which is what causes a run on the bank. That is why banks need to really look at the the quiddity on their assets very different from a Life Insurance company. You attribute the pledge in october and the recovery to technical reasons. Are those technical reasons going to put us in a similar tailspin again . Yes. Markets will stay volatile. When i say technical, what does that mean . Ks of howental, quir the Market Structure operates. It had nothing to do with your poor japan. Not a lot. There were headlines in october. I dont know any investors who reassess growth prospects. They havent really had time to do so. There were a couple of triggers. There was some hedge fun shorting at of the results. There was the escalation of trouble in hong kong with ebola in america. That couldve been 2 or 3 down on the market. Then you have the running of highfrequency traders, the markets selling or particular Retail Investors are using. It led to a bit of a spiral. Jim, what i want to know, wh