Now. The question of the day should be harrods . Is in considering any major changes in syria. Has become an Major Military player in the conflict. H sees the move as a sign of desperation. Running your economy into the ground and having to send troops and in order to prop up, the only ally is leadership then we have a different definition of leadership. Julie meanwhile, putin discussed the attacks with saudi Arabia Defense minister, the officials signaled that they would be willing to let assad stay in power. A report today from iran says a Washington Post converter reporter has been convicted. A judiciary condition offered no details. The u. S. Has criticized iran for trying him in secret. In turkey, no one has claimed attacks. Ility for the the attacks happened at a rally. Alling for Peaceful Solutions glencore has been hammered by the summit Commodity Prices, shares are down 55 this year. Those are your top headlines. Back to you in london. Tom lets do a data check. There is nothing going on in the equity markets as we wait for a busier week. I purposely caught up to the twoyear yields. You always do. The fascination with the german it has beent there for a long time. They do expect to be paid to the floor for a while longer. Harrods thised weekend, we do have an important guest year with the spirit of europe. The battle for britains future is heating up today. Jonathan lets welcome johnson. We go back to the unknown. Got toy in a camp acknowledge the uncertainty that goes with that. How do leverage . Luke we have a fair debate. We put the facts of the table. Saysthe stay in a campaign , where are the details . A great many people are concerned about things like control of our borders. Thated as a nation to know we can control who comes in and out of our country. These things are very important. Of the Common Agricultural policy is essential. This is the largest single budget item in the eu. It is written for french farmers and it needs addressing. The city itself needs to be friendly to brussels and strasburg. They are not trying to destroy what a key the british economy. Tom they went after donald trump. How many people do you employ . Do you employe their new citizens to the u. K. . What is the distinction between brexit and the way london is totern mark luke we want control migration as opposed to having it dictated across 28 countries. In intention, there is a great lack of democracy across europe or i think the heart of this lack of democracy is the eu. Energize how do you the left to vote with you . Luke if you look at what mr. Corbin said, he is more concerned at the impact of immigration than those on the right. Immigration is a left right issue. Massabout ceasing uncontrolled immigration and talking about intelligent immigration that is a net benefit for the economy and does not lead to a society that is less cohesive. Muchhan remind me, how exports do we have with the eu . Does that change . Luke we were on a big trade deficit with the eu. If we cease to trade with them, they will be losers. Tom whats the biggest thing the United Kingdom would lose with brexit . I think there is a degree of uncertainty. I think we should be confident with being an independent, successful nation electeddepend on officials in brussels to decide our laws for us. Today, my headquarter is based in the eu and tomorrow it might be based in england. Germany or switzerland or norway, they have high gdps. Both are in europe. They are outside the eu. If we left the eu, we would enjoy very attractive trading terms within the eu. We would be perfectly successful. I see lucy fisher writing in the times of london. I am fascinated if you were to sit down with tony blair. There is a great divide, where is the Common Ground to get to compromise over brexit . Luke i think there is a big division. I think that the Prime Minister is limbering up for a failed renegotiation. I would love to think there is a possibility that we could change our terms of engagement with the eu and we could stay within it. Jonathan what does he want . He wants. T sure what i think he wants a cosmetic set of changes that would satisfy a sufficient number of people. Tom americans are baffled by this. They had a referendum years ago. It, we are on baffled by this polarity and why there is a debate. What would happen the next day . Luke there would be a time of renegotiation. Who knows how that would end up. One would hope that it was a sensible, practical set of discussions. It is in everyones interest that we would continue to trade. Is it sensible to sell at the bottom of the market . Glencore is selling its mines. We will picked out the deal next. Tom good morning, everyone. We are worldwide of from london and new york. That is a pitiful new york early morning. Beautiful new york early morning. No starbucks. Its somehow different in london. We need to go back to vonnie quinn. Connie vonnie quinn dell will announce today its acquiring emc. Raising 40 billion to finance the deal. Leadershipmbine emcs in digital storage. Anheuserbusch may raise its take over bid for miller. It has been considering what a boost it would do for its offer. Makers are pure hoping for a deal by friday. Glencore is making moves to reduce some of the 10 billion worth of debt. Plans to sellr copper mines in australia and chile. The price has battered this year. The stock is down 65 . Jonathan lets get more on glencore. Jesse, these guys are traitors. They are some of the best traders on the planet. What does this say about the predicament a are in. Is they areonsensus at or near the bottom. Copper is one of the metals that people still look at over the longterm. There is an appetite for copper assets. This should be quite a decent time for that. Tom are you surprised about the servitude of the bounce in commodities. Clearly, glencore is banking everything on that commodity rebound. Surprisedas particularly on a friday. Wouldvent think we seen that coming. Jonathan we spoke to rio. He is not talking about fundamentals. He is talking about short status. As we come down from 10,000 to what is fair by you in copper . Jesse higher than what it is. Echoed last week. Lets be clear. If the scenario plays out, thats not great news for glencore. Tom you have done great reporting on this. The ceo knows the market. You keep producing with sunk capital costs. Glencore wants to play by a different book. How dare they. Jesse they have created a great deal of tension. They have the lowest costs in the market. Tom did they not take microeconomics . Jesse they are higher cost producers. They will take some of these assets off the target. Unprofitablen as by some analysts. May be the same way that opec is trying to drive things at the moment, where does that get tested . They are looking at 20 iron ore. At what point does that start to get tested . if chinese demand falls off a cliff. That has boosted sediment around the commodity. Tom can you guys help me out . This is the biggest deal. This is the american paper with is theve the big this wall street journal. You guys do it right. Print is still alive here. How is the print business . Jesse i enjoyed reading the paper every day. York, they get little or and little or. It just doesnt work. We will continue as well. We need to talk to somebody about the overview. Aboutl talk to her negative Interest Rates. London, this is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Jonathan this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom is in london. If he is obsessed with the size of the newspaper. Tom nobody apologizes for shrinking print industry. They just do it and they do it right. Let me go to the morning mustread. This is smart. How do you say it . If its key or topic. This is classic nielsen that. Back to the heart of it. He has been a very bullish on in europe. He stated that throughout the summer. Where others questioned the fundamentals, he has stayed bullish. I would go to luke johnson and ask the question. Are you bearish on the european economy . Luke its a recovery story. They have had a long recession. I think optimism is returning. Investment is rising. In many countries, unemployment is falling. Youve got Capital Expenditure going on. Lendanks are starting to again. A lot of them did not capitalize. Its the classic cyclical way that the world works. Tom you have such a granule track record of innovation. What is your biggest impediment to the optimism . What is the biggest headache . Its theould say encroaching regulation and bureaucracy. Its happening everywhere. I dont quite understand it. Society gets more sophisticated and richer, there is more bureaucracy. You have to fight it tooth and nail. It in its risktaking. It diminishes investment. Longterm, it doesnt help. Tom what would sterling do . Think the euro and the intractablewn by problems in places like greece. Look at how many hundreds of billions have been sunk into greece. Jonathan its a place of highend political risk. You think thats going to happen . Luke i remember people saying that if we did not join the year of that we would be doomed. Sterling has strengthened against the euro over the years. I think we have a track record of showing that we are probusiness and the generate abs we do attract disproportionate amount of the direct investment into the u. K. Tom the germans speak about keeping europe together. The you look at the responsibility of avoiding the tragedies of the past on Continental Europe as separate from the debate over the United Kingdom western mark do we need to attention to what he is saying about cohesion . Luke nato is a more important factor and the u. N. In terms of keeping it peace in europe rather than the eu. The rise ofed to extremist parties across europe. There is a fundamental vacuum in a democratic terms. Is research at the stamford hotel. I dont know what to say to that. Researched heavily this weekend. Luke there will be a case study in how to get it right. Tom we will come back with luke johnson. Coming up, a conversation with eric nielsen. John taught jonathan this is Bloomberg Live from new york. Vonnie president obama plans to stay the course in syria. Last night he said he is not considering major changes in strategy. Russia has unexpectedly become a major player in the fighting. Republican president ial frontrunner donald trump says germany has gone too far when comes to taking and refugees. Angela merkel has agreed to take in about 800,000 this year. Trump criticized her on cbss face the nation. I love the safe zone, i do not love the people coming. I always thought merkel was a great leader. Vonnie trump still leads carson in the republican race. Iran says it has successfully tested a new long range missile. The missile can be guided until it hits its target. Opponents are likely to see this as a sign the country will see the Nuclear Agreement as a way. O build military power the House Committee investigating benghazi has shifted its focus to the email server while clinton was secretary of state. The republicans deny the investigation is motivated politically. Stanley fischer says the economy may be Strong Enough to withstand a rate increase by the end of the year. He said a rate hike timetable would be determined in part by job growth and international development. Those are your top headlines. Tom thank you. In new york at 2 00 a. M. , everybody is wondering. Puts outed jeffrey yu a short love note to wall street into his customers. Everybody goes, ive got to read this. We do this with dxy. Jonathan this is the pvf file. Good morning. The dollarok at dynamics and a story weve been talking about, weve been talking about emerging markets. Weve had a retracement fueled by the Commodity Markets. How much should i believe in that . Jeff clients do believe it. I just ran off a report as i was coming here. The best performers in g10, the best performers in em is the South African rand. Tom what are the underpinning that will decide whether it is a rebound in commodities prices a weakness in Foreign Exchange . Geoffrey three things. Tom we only have time for two. Geoffrey valuations. There. Ument is it brings us to the second issue. You need a demand side. The man said, is china going to grow at previous rates that justify valuations. Tom did you hear recalibration in lima, peru. Are you any wiser on when the demand side clicks in . Geoffrey i dont think anyone is wiser as to china. If anything, why are they still so optimistic on chinaz 6. 8 and guiding lower. This does not change the structural story. China needs to rebalance. Tom , we always talk about investors and we take a binary view of giant. Either stay away or dive in. You changed your review of china as the market gyrate in the last two months . Dijsselbloem luke no. Investors deploy capital and are talking about investments in five. , 10 or 20 years is. If they are influenced by the daily moves in Exchange Rates they cannot make longterm bets. , many otherse oil are saying Jonathan Goldman sachs was ng the same thing geoffrey we are in the go back in camp. That does not mean we are looking at a secular boom back towards the triple digit spirit we are looking at 80 a barrel on a secular basis. That requires a repricing. The pivot between dollar dynamics versus the commodity currency is a roulette wheel where you make all your money versus the big asian nation, like asian dxy. How does dollar play out in the ambiguity of a commodity bid . Geoffrey we have to bring up the fed. Perhaps the dollar index is it that indicator. That, they doee not do that in new york. Geoffrey when eurodollar was tanking, do not look at those cad, theat dollar ones that influence the u. S. Supply chain. If dollarchina goes up 10 , what is that due to u. S. Inflation . That will feature more. To turkey. To get do you have a quantified amount of deflation that will be imported into the United States . 3 , 2 10 of a percent, what is it . Geoffrey we look at what are the risks of the u. S. Missing inflation targets. 1. 5 , back to your target level, chances rise to that being hit. Speedou are better up to on the turkey shock, a horrific bombing. Jonathan a tragedy and what is front and center is the politics. Dollartri, that is so much jargon. This is the capital of the fx market,. Talk about turkey, and election in november and you wonder how the tragedy plays into that. Can you read the political tea leaves . Geoffrey hard to do. Local instability has been an issue. Does this affect financing . With all these questioned turkeys balance sheet, can it cover its effects denominated debt. Jonathan luke, when you make an investment, politics matter. Is that a place you would want to invest . Luke we do. We have 4 holiday resorts in and around bodrum. Stability in turkey is important to us and i hope the election is peaceful and that this terrorist outrage does not presage a series of attacks and more conflicts with the kurds and isil and so forth. Who knows who is behind the bombing. I hope it is not exacerbate problems. Tom we are going to continue this further with luke johnson and geoffrey yu. We have wonderful people on bloomberg surveillance this week, france in the quad joining this week. The laureate of the London School of economics will talk about british economics. And more importantly, lagardes new mediocre. From london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom there was a marathon of some kind in london. Here is the breaksclusive, i did not run it. I walked along the river. A beautiful london. The weather is spectacular. Copper is a mover. Jonathan i sat down for the the week with the head hes questioning whether hedge funds are playing a dangerous game with copper. We are not trading on fundamentals. One good example is theres a lot of shorts in copper. Weve seen the pickup on shortselling copper. To changement decided the rule where people are no longer authorized to short sell. What we have experienced is a series of players that use er as if you want to look at prices, we are giving you guidelines for the price. There is something that does not stack up on the price curve. Jonathan weve had a rebound in the commodity market. In the enteredk a move, looking at the. 8 . 2011, 10,000, right down to 5000. People have to adjust to that. Tom ive seen this so many times. The stresses of leverage. Geoffrey it is double or quick triple it is double or china. Le leveraged in tom it is amazing how it is not the fever that i recall. Geoffrey looking at the stage of the cycle, the policy cycle, wheres the demand side coming from . Even if we push back from fed expectations, there is most likely not going to be more normalization. Jonathan i want to talk about proxies. When i talk to people, they tell me this is the proxy to short china. In the fx market, what is the llar . , is it the aussiedo geoffrey the australian dollar, some em currencies, the taiwan dollar. Tom is there a currency war . We toss the name around like it is nothing. Geoffrey no. It is normal economics and i bet if the boj does another round of stimulus, people are going to bring this up. Pboc are going to throw a fit that it is ultimately tom we had shinzo abe visit our headquarters a couple weeks ago. An abefriendly call by ubs to 127 on yen. Did we get enough jargon in there for you . Jonathan a lot of jargon this week. Tom a lot of jargon this week. That is our surveillance silence. John from jp morgan will join us thursday to continue our discussion on commodities and Foreign Exchange. Really looking forward to that. Eric nelson of unicredit later this week. Jonathan ferro and tom keene in london and vonnie quinn in new york. This is bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Jonathan Ferro with tom keene in london. Is it morning or night . Tom when you are working bloomberg surveillance, it is always the morning. People are staggering home when i am going in. Quinn withonnie your business flash. Vonnie expecting a recordbreaking takeover today. Dell will announce it is acquiring davis Storage Company emc. Dell is in talks to raise at least 40 billion to play for the deal. Emc is a leader in digital storage. Dell has been increasing its server business. Hundreds of southwest Airline Flights delayed by a technology glitch. The problem forced the airline to man