Weve got ecb, janet yellen speaking once again. Tom will ecb unveil echo the announcement out of the press conference. All of surveillances morning, on television and radio. Lift into difficult news, starting with news in new york city. Good morning tom and caroline. The two suspects in california have been killed in a shootout with police. This happened several hours after 14 people were killed at a center for the disabled. The police chief spoke late last night. We put out we have information there were three shooters. Right now as we continue to drill down information and the witness statements, it looks like we have two shooters. We are pretty comfortable that the two shooters that we believe went into the building are the two farouk art site our site need farouk syed farouk and his wife. British warplanes have carried out their first strike on Islamic State in syria. Not long after parliament approved the action. The Defense Ministry says it would release details later. Arrest in theof worldwide soccer corruption case. Two executives were arrested at dawn. French Authorities Say they took bribes. An Appeals Court in south africa found oscar the story is guilty of murder today which overturns his conviction of the lesser charge of manslaughter. He killed his girlfriend on valentines day in 2013. U. S. And china are making slow progress in their fight against cyber crime. They wrapped up two days of meetings over cyber intrusion. A hackingina says attack on the office of Personnel Management was a criminal case. Personal data on more than 20 Million People were compromised. Even get information on these on bloomberg. Com. Tom a data checkin. Data moving in the last hour. Futures up 10. Much more than what we were an hour ago. The euro 1. 06 down. Crude, 40. 47. Onto the second screen, looking at the vick. 15. 91. That is brent crude. 44. I am buying cocktails at harris for caroline. The headline story, the ultimate litmus paper for the draghi affairs. Grinding down to two decimal points the negative 0. 45. That is not in any of the textbooks. Caroline unchanged. Yieldd do bring up the spread between germany and the u. S. In october. 88 back tom three standard deviations. Caroline this can go wider. 5 . Out the euro, down draghi pull out of the back in terms of bond buying. Check out minors they are the worst performing Industry Group. That was three date tom three days of iron ore down. We move to the mario draghi headlines and the press conference. Lets speak to erik nielsen. He has been an optimistic voice to all of the financial crisis. You see the reports of profit. Optimism, we see mr. Draghi act today. I dont get the optimism of corporate europe. Erik part of the optimism is because of draghi. He is the only game in town in terms of stimulating the economy. You can argue whether he needs it given the fact that growth is above trend. The Inflation Numbers are nowhere near where they should be. Tom lets go a little wonky today. The output contrast gap that draghi faces versus the output gap that janet yellen faces. Erik the easiest way to put it is looking at the unemployment numbers. That is one component and it is still very high in europe. People coming into the labor market and wants to work and therefore unemployed. In america you have the complete opposite. Unemployment is down to an alltime low. The American Economy has come out of the recession. They have closed up the gap more or less. She is behind the curve. Caroline you have said we are behind the curve. The market is behind the curve. Lets see what janet yellen does after this. Erik you look to curve and all darts are setting up here. Tom can i ask you a dumb american question. The ecb does not display the opinions of everyone. I do not know that. What else are we looking at. I know we are going to get headlines and we are going to see the deposit rate at what does a pro like you want to look at after the amount . As you go for questions into the press conference. Erik first of all look at what he says about Interest Rates which is the biggest problem. I have no issue with the Balance Sheet expansion. Interest rates is deeply unnatural. I am worried they are going down that way. I am worried i am looking at the fx. Ndm caroline, what i fi amazing in and this goes to negative Interest Rates and shades of negative Interest Rates between denmark and a lot of of the city. Switzerland, you have a 12 year negative yield. Very persistent. Buying a 12 year bond at negative . You only do this if someone has a gun to your head. Nobody in their right mind is trying to save money for pensioners and buying negative Interest Rates. Caroline germany was already doing well. Ecb does not by greek debt desk ecb does not ecb does not buy greek debt. Erik germany does not really needed. The problem is in germany, the real issue is one agent who can borrow at now negative rates and they dont want to. Policy their fiscal policy is all good. Tom if you can bring up the chart. This is a great oped from mark gilbert. When ecb was starting, i interviewed some of their governors. Erik nielsen, this is a oneyear chart from jockey stimulus. That is a 12 weakness in the euro. It is amazing what people think. What is your call for the euro . It will turn around 1. 05. It will grind higher again. Tom why is the weaker of crew wrong . Erik people believe in going through parity. That is what draghi wants. Know how deep they ally wanted. If you wake up tomorrow morning or this afternoon and eurodollar is an parity, i dont think they like that speed down. In europe americans have a deficit. Outflow of america. The whole drive down. The whole drive down is hot money. Tom i was amazed how the markets move. Do you predict major moves this morning . We saw it yesterday afternoon. Oil moved. Caroline gold. Banks arekey central the agents of volatility. This cannot be good. We dont know what they really ought to. It seems like Central Banks have moved to the fact of Exchange Rate targeting. They have not said so. The markets are all over the place. Tom we have a whole set of smart gives to give you. Didmart gifts to give you give you. The decision will be live with mario draghi. We will cover that extensively. Stay with us. Tomline hyde talked to keene. Bloomberg surveillance in london. Caroline this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Caroline Hyde here with tom keene. We are going to be talking about centralbank policy divergence all morning. Ofreat call about the story british pound could go another 50 lower. Another 15 lower. Thank you so much. The europeans into bank is expected to unleash a fresh batch of stimulus just a few hours from now. Ecb will announce the decision at 7 45 eastern. Five minutes later, mario draghi may unveil several measures. Investors are expecting the ecb to cut the deposit rate and officials familiar with the number says the center bank will lower its forecast. Anheuser wish anheuserbusch will again his plan to take over sabmiller. Regulators have expressed as it stands, the deal would hurt competition. The price of oil is higher after reports of saudi arabia may propose a cutback in opecs outlook. A 39 drop in oil prices. According to a report in Energy Intelligence, the saudis will support a call a cut in production but not until late next year. Lets stick with oil and head to vienna where opec ministers are gathering. Ryan chilcote joins us now. Ryan, is it posturing out of saudi arabia or an about turn . Ryan it is posturing. They are not talking about in Production Cut. There talking about a Production Cut down the road. It would be conditioned on other people participating. Outside of opec like the russians, mexicans. They say that is a nonstarter. I talked to the Iranian Oil Minister he said minister, he said lets return to the market. Get our Oil Production to where we wanted to be. This is an offer that the saudis and make because they know no one is to take them up on it. Approach, not an in my backyard. The saudis can continue to produce as much as they want and it doesnt hurt them. Ryan no, it hurts saudi arabia, lets be clear. Saudi arabia in the station thats in distinction and distinction to other countries has the reserves to sustain for longer. The saudis can handle that. The iranians clearly cant. That is why they are the architects of this policy because they can deal with the pain while they squeeze out the higher cost producers. You have been talking about iran. We speculation about saudi arabia. How much does the World Economy into the decision around the opec conversation tomorrow . How much does janet yellen play into the conversation . Ryan become session about the World Economy and the minister concerns play a much bigger role than people think. Theyre concerned about manufacturing in china. The fact that if you look to pmi, 11 out of the 12 months, we have seen a recession in china. That concerned about the United States. They have seen in the imf number. They are concerned about that. They need to have demand. If you have a global recession, they dont have any pricing power. Tom macro economics with Ryan Chilcote. I look at the terminal and i see iran saying some opec members want to leave the oil market. That sounds like a frightening idea. Where does the meet and greet vienna field the market price is for oil. I am guessing lower . They are concerned that prices will go lower. We talked to some of the biggest independent traders out there. They say it could take as long as 2017 for prices to rally. That is longer than it took the last time we saw a crash here that is longer than those same traders a few months ago. There is a feeling that things might be getting out of control. The strategy the saudis put year is not working. Tom Ryan Chilcote, think he so much from vienna. Erik nielsen, the formula is why equals c plus mx. Oil photos right into the export oil filters right into the export import demand. Erik it is quite important youd it should not be, but it is. Ms. In thats right. Tom it shouldnt be but it is. Erik the word is very confused about this right now. Tom we are going to come back and talk about the many different calls on the euro. It is friday tomorrow. I will be training to paris. We are live tomorrow. Francine lacqua and myself with the lori all chief executive officers. That will be most interesting. The day of draghi. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. The gorge yesterday of new york. He talk about Global Warming, it has been a perfect autumn. Say that no ice on the streets. Tom keene in london with Caroline Hyde. This is been the topic of london and all of the United Kingdom. Caroline indeed. Syria. It is phenomenal. U. K. Has voted for bombing within syria. Overnight Islamic State we have had the first airstrike. Favorers voted 397 223 in to join allies in the fight against extremist groups. Where joined by then you oh donald. It looks like a success for David Cameron. It was a triumph. 66 labor and pe voted in favor of that motion. The big question is for labor leader jeremy corbyn. Caroline he is the shadow leader. He is the head of the labour party. Them. The tractors amongst youre seeing this is not a David CameronPrime Minister that went up. This is the shadow foreign secretary time to shine. A absolutely. He gave the speech of his career. Theet out triumphantly opposing view to his leadership and he was applauded by both sides which is something that happens rarely. It was really a triumph and a very moving and impassioned speech. Tom tell us about that emotion. Four americans it is completely different anything we know in washington. Tell us the emotion on the floor. The back story. Several mps who to setgainst the motion up his reasons against. It felt like people were laying out their conscience. Both sides were heard. It was significant by being a very polite argument. People respected this was a moral choice. Tom how much was the shadow of tony blair and brown within this. Within this . How much did that play as an overarching theme what we see . Nja the shadow is always going to be present. This is why two years ago David Cameron lost that vote. Paris, he sawr what the stakes were very different. There is caroline we had john mccain spitting out for us. How important is it for the u. K. Lending in support . Nja this is absolutely key. Standing shoulder to shoulder with allies. Solidarity, not letting other people carry out the defense of the u. K. Next line u. K. Sven you and i do not disagree on anything. Outlier bank with an dramatically weaker euro off of a euro bluff. Must watch. Good morning. Caroline this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Caroline Hyde joined by tom keene and joined by tom keene. A beautiful evening. Lets get straight up to bloombergs first word news. Vonnie quinn. Vonnie police in southern the leftill not 14 people dead. Two suspects died in a shootout with police not far from the center for the disabled with the killing took place. The suspects were identified. He attended a celebration and then returned and opened fire. The two were described as being dressed for battle. British warplanes entered the fight against Islamic State in syria. He carried out their first strike not long after the parliament gave its approval. At least for Royal Air Force jets took off from a base in cyprus. In south africa, an Appeals Court have found olympian Oscar Pistorius guilty of murder. It overturned the manslaughter conviction. He faces a minimum 15 years in prison. Sayustralia, authorities they have narrowed down the search area for the missing Malaysian Airline jet. They used a new analysis of the plane. The plane disappeared in march of 2014 with 239 people on board. Ben carson has slipped in the latest poll of republican president ial candidates. A month ago he was tied with donald trump. Now he has fallen in a tie for third. Byp leads with 27 , followed trump leads with 27 , lullaby marco rubio and ted cruz. Followed by marco rubio and ted cruz. Tom here is the back story on the draghi meeting today. I am thrilled to have erik nielsen of unicredit with me. ,lso joining from Deutsche BankGeorge Saravelos with foreignexchange. Let me cut to the chase. You two dont agree which we love. George, i look at the focus you have on flows versus relative Interest Rates or real Interest Rates. Why does Deutsche Bank so much focused on the glut of euro that is going to flow and make for a weaker euro . George the two are interrelated. It is helping the flow but the isortant the importance understanding the global habitations. He had the euro weakening and the weakness is not as contagious as best as contagious around the ecb announcement. It has applications. We see a lot of those flows going to the euro. Tom d. Phil. Lonely on this call do you feel lonely on this call . George i feel lonelier i dont feel as lonely as last years call. Tom the yellow circle, Caroline Hyde may discharge. Job. Id a phenomenal we go to 0. 85 which is a weaker euro. Theory. U go i get the what will staunch european weakness . Erik euro weakness, you mean. Tom euro weakness, i mean. The warrenalance and buffett purchases of European Companies and inflows into equities which is not cheap compared to america. Tom it will keep a lid on the weakness to see Warren Buffetts and positions coming in and instead of buying heinz. Caroline there is a longerterm question of are we insane . Bloomberg view written by mark gilbert, he is saying remind me of what the insanity is when you do the same thing again and again and expect a different outcome. Are we going to get a different outcome . What will it take for mario draghi to unleash . George one point to make is inflation is already rising. We are not that far away. The problem is speed. We are not going up as fast as they would like. What they want to do is do a bit of a supercharged. The euro going down a little more. Will they deliver today . I personally think they will. A huge package of measures we have to look at qe, rates. What i call the plumbing. A whole, that package will deliver. Tom when they act and if we see the weaker euro, there has to be a price. Is it a poor europe because it is a weaker euro . Euro if thes a poor prices are going up. Thehe way we have looked at euro weaker this year is a good deal to offset the external factor weakness which has not happened in the u. S. Euro i get a databank exporters of italy . Single global erik they help. I should review that in 2015, that was a stimulus to some extent. But to the extent that you wouldve thought. There is a risk that if you were to wake up tomorrow and you get the eurodollar at parity, only get is more Extensive Oil and thats Expensive Oil and expensive commodities. Caroline if we are looking at the short, i want to see todays reaction. How many more compile and to the mess against the euro to make it not. 85 . Driskell and that is a great question. George that is a great question. We built in q1 and got paired back in 23. Those are a lot more persist