With tom keene in new york. There has been a change in the landscape in the last two days. What i liked his we are going to talk to a smart set of people through all of surveillance this morning. They will join us later on radio. We have got doug of isi in this hour. And paul gate of Sanford Bernstein in our next hour. Smart experts on this commodity implosion. Guy setting you up for what is turned out to be an interesting tuesday morning. All those guys coming up. Lets get you the bloomberg news. Nejra thanks, guy. Chinas trade slump just keeps getting worse. Chinese exports fell in november for the fifth months in a row. And the drop in imports has now hit a record 13 months. The trade data comes a week after reports show chinas factory conditions fell to their weakest level in more than three years. For the first time authorities in beijing have raised an air pollution alert to the highest level. By one measure this mauga seven times the level considered dangerous to help it beijing has suspended schools, restricted car travel and banned outdoor barbecuing. Republican president of candidates are denouncing donald migrantsall to ban to the u. S. Trump says the u. S. Cannot be the victims of horrendous attacks by people who believe only in jihad. Venezuela, opponents won a majority in the congress for the first time in 16 years. Venezuela is suffering through an unprecedented recession. But modero remains president. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Tom thank you so much. Futures lets talk about three more. Guy johnson has a smarter board than i do. Equities, bonds, currencies, they are commodities but there is curve flattening it is beginning to creep in. Hydrocarbon at currencies. There is oil with that shocking 37 handle. American oil. Brent crude front and center to get a 39 print on brent crude would be game changes. Lets go to the second board if we could. 15. 84. Dollarcanada weaker. In mexico this is important. Mexico broke yesterday. And we get out near 17. Theres brent crude. 41. 11. Guy what do you have . Guy here are other numbers. Europe trading lower this morning. Down by. 7 . It is mainly the minors. There are the basic resources sectors down 4 . A bunch of stocks in that sector down. We get new some glencore later on this week. The norwegian currency very much relying on what happens with the oil trade. We are down at levels we have not seen since 1992. Brents trading lower. The ruble is under pressure. Tom here is a partial score. Guy johnson one, tom keene zero. Johnson winning with a noki staki, inside european baseball. Lets go to the terminal. I do not have the terminal. We will show you how you do that. I go for those of you with a terminal i can come right back here to the german twoyear, i want to show where we are at the negative yield. This is a german deadcat bounce. This is off draghi the other day. Still veryds negative showing some of the work that janet yellen has to do december 16. Guy lets talk to the global head of fx strategy at bnp pari bas. The foreignexchange the commodities collapse we are seeing. This is a big thing for us as well in foreignexchange land. The key thing we would say is that the big four losers are the commodities. The australian dollar, new zealand dollar, Canadian Dollar and norwegian krone. I think the one we are focusing on is short aussie verus the u. S. Istralias biggest export iron or. All of these looking surprisingly overvalued above 72 cents. Particularly against a resurgent u. S. Dollars. So our top tarrade in this environment a short us trillion dollar. Guy can we think more about how readnflation story will into centralbank policy. It is going to provide clarity and understanding about what the real economy looks like that is going to be difficult to work through. Because commodities are still falling. That affect is being narrowed and narrowed. That is going to have affects not only on what is happening with the but have consumer countries and everywhere else. That is a good point to the starting point has got to be the fed, because the fed and the thank everyone are the two Central Banks we are expecting to hike. If there is a slowdown, we think it will come through with the u. S. I think it is going to take a little bit of time to come through because we are getting very, very clear guidance from fed members that they are ready to hike in december. I do not think that is going to derail the fed timing. What it may do is put more pressure on the Central Banks that are easing to ease further. Clearly the ecb. I would definitely focus on those commodities again. I think it means reserve bank of australia, bank of kennedy. Canada. Bank of tom if you look at the dollar, if i run partial differentials, is this about dollar dynamics versus other currencies . Steven i think it very much is that case. Policy diversions is certainly what we have been focusing on. Interesting is for a lot of this year the policy diversions has actually been coming from the other Central Banks easing, because we had disappointment coming from the fed. We thought they would go in june. Then it was september. Finally now it is december. But if this is the real situation, which we think it is, i think Dollar Strength is going to start to be the driver of this rather than Euro Weakness and yen weakness. Tom i look at the trade weighted dollar. Lets look at the all in dollar. This includes china. , pricelationadjusted adjusted broad dollar. You can see how far we are back to that 20012002 peak. Steve, as a general rule, does bnp paribas suggest we are going to reach the peaks of the dollar of the late 1990s . Steven we think we are going to see the dollar continue to rally. A key number we are focusing on is parity. We think we go back to parity in generally speaking, we think that trend of the dollar continued to move higher is very much in line with our view at bnp paribas. Guy the consensus is we are going to see more and more from draghi. He is going to continue to work his way through the Monetary Policy took book. Why should he do that . Should the key point we focus on is not growth but inflation. This is a key differentiator. Growth in the eurozone actually is ok. It is not terrible. It is inflation that is the problem, and particularly falling expectations. To answer your question specifically, why should he do it . It is going to be dependent on what happens to inflation. If they continue to remain low and there is a risk oil even lower, thats going to put more pressure to do more. Guy we will leave it there. Thank you very much. Coming up on bloomberg, we take you live to paris for an interview with the ceo of schneider electric. Cop21g us from the conference. This is bloomberg surveillance streaming on your tablet and on your phone and on bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning, everyone. It is gorgeous in new york. Some smart articles everywhere this morning on the warmth across the United States. Chicago in the 50s. Fog is a serious issue in chicago. Greg jarrett saying San Francisco with substantial fog. The answer is for those of you worldwide, america is warm. Some of the energy stored. Lets get right now to our Bloomberg Business flash in london. Nejra thanks, tom. Global Mining CompanyAnglo American is scrapping its dividend for the First Time Since 2009. Anglo has been hit hard by the slumping commodities. The company will suspend dividends for the second half of this year and all of 2016. The four today, shares had fallen 69 . Before today. Oil is trading near its nose level its lowest level in 16 years. Under speculation that it global oil what will process. Opec has given up a strategy of limiting output to control prices. And it turns out that japans economy has actually avoided a recession. Revised figures show the japanese economy expanded in the third quarter. Government of Prime Minister shinzo abe is expected to come up with extra fiscal spending packages this months. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Guy thanks very much. Lets turn to energy and its impact on the climate. Talks in paris on Climate Change are in their second win. Efforts to curb Greenhouse Gases are getting a boost. Caroline hyde is in paris for the cop 21 summit. Schneider electric ceo joining her. Over to you. Caroline jeanpascale tricoire joining me, ceo of schneider electric. Barclays tell us youre going to be a big winner. It is all about Energy Efficiency, about automation, eight dollars trillion being invested. About 8 trillion being invested. Jeanpascale it is going to help us a lot because every speculate every technology. Combinatione in the of intelligence, which is automation on Energy Technologies and Energy Efficiency in homes, buildings, industry and infrastructure. On what we see from the cop 2 1 is that the greenest and fastest way to generate green energy is to save energy. There is a big potential of efficiency building. The industry has also vast untapped potential. Ofoline potential in terms how many millions and billions could be added to your revenues and five or 10 years time. Jeanpascale that is built inside her business. Everything we do is around combining Energy Efficiency on growth to generate green growth for our company. So it is not that you can put just a simple digit on it. But what we see is that when we sell a system, and 80 of the cases customers are asking for efficiency. Caroline you are just come from hong kong. Asiapacific is your main area. China on red alert when it comes to beijing. How important is it that china is now embracing Climate Change and how much of your revenue will come from china . Jeanpascal china is the biggest population on earth. Second largest economy in dollar terms. On the development has been so fast, that china had a wall in terms of emissions and pollutions. China is very serious about resolving. China is our second largest country in our portfolio. We are working very closely with the government, with cities, wi th companies to reduce the impact of emissions on the impact of energy consumption. Caroline well your business grow their rather than shrink, given that we have chinas economy in question . Jeanpascal you have to take a bit of perspective we know that china is going through what is called the new normal. An adjustment time after decades of very fast growth. So it is an adjustment that we of theing with the rest economy, with our china operation. Im confident we are going to be back to a more as we go forward. Caroline thank you very much. Jeanpascal tricoire here for a couple of days. A French Company basin within hong kong. Asia pac their biggest growing area. Thanks. Back to you. Guy lets talk about that china story. To talk about how Many Americans are going to be going on holiday down under because the aussie dollar. We have got a currently at 72. Spot 72. But you think it is going down to 62. Steven our medium term forecasting model signals that sometime next year aussie should trade towards six to two cents. There are two themes. First and foremost the u. S. Dollar strength. The secondly, aussie has lagged. We had a big move in eurodollar down to 1. 04. Aussie is above 72 cents. The key point is the change in the chinese economy. China is shifting from a manufacturingbased economy to more of a servicebased economy. That is not good news for commodity demand coming from china. And it is not good news for the big exporters like australia. We think the aussie dollar is going to take a big tumble over the next 12 months. The model signaling 16 to cents. Tom within that number we will try to get a chart up there bnp paribas with terrific tentacles and Knowledge Base and intelligence in china. How confident are you of the commodity and demand of china . What is our Knowledge Base of what china is actually doing that . Elasticities of copper and other commodities. Steven a key point to focus on for australia is iron ore because it it is the demand for steel that is driving it. The point we would make is that china has actually been stockpiling a lot of iron ore for the last 12 months. That has been keeping the price relatively high. So, the point we would make. It is actually less reliant on the outlook for chinese growth. But its more a sense of supply and demand coming together because we think that stockpile is really going to prevent iron ore from rebounding. Tom stephen say well from bnp paribas. We want to make you better in commodities. Paul date from bernstein will join us. Before the douglas head of Energy Research really looking forward to speaking to doug about where we are with oil. Guy johnson and tom keene. Stay with us. Hello, hong kong. Youre looking at live pictures. I guy johnson in london with tom in new york. This, of course, is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg. Com. Lets stay in that part of the world. Lets get more news on what is been happening in china. Chinas exports falling for a fifth straight months in november while the import slump extended to a record 13 months. Joining us now enda curran are chief asia economics correspondents. Data tell us about what is happening inside this economy . Enda good morning. It is a pretty disappointing end of the year. By this stage economies have been hoping to see a little bit of momentum, a turnaround after a year of a whole series of other stimulus measures. By the government. It is not panning out. Exports today told us that factors continue to struggle. They are stuck in deflation. That is the other problem. When you look at the export numbers, there is more disappointment under the hood because the u. S. Market had been the one bright spot for chinese shipments this year. That is fallen away. U. S. Shipments fell. Eurozone shipments fell. The export stories adding to a soft overall picture. Am i look at the currency as litmus paper. I know that is not an accurate statement. But it is tuesday morning. Bring it up. The china chart. We have massed evaluation. That is the vertical line with a weaker renminbi. Then we have a surprise of and appreciation. Now china managing your currency has depreciated, rather, on the currency out. Is there a vector here . We look at the different houses research, is there a vector of where renminbi is going . Enda i think the broad view among the broad view is that the pressure on the yuan is to go down. The question is whether or not the chinese authorities will let the yuan weaken over the coming months. We saw some weakness in recent days in hong kong, for example. One of the problems with china weterms of letting it yuan can is that it might trigger capital outflows paid they are boxed into a corner. Might helpr a yuan exports. But it made trigger capital outflows. The weaker currency will not trigger global demand. Buying chinese shipments. In the weaker yuan will not change that. Guy does the policy say the same . Stay the the by all accounts, central bank has the often to cut rates further on the government has plenty of ammunition to pump stimulus. Economist say that more is likely. Tom thank you very much. Greatly appreciative from hong kong this morning. I think we go back to china in the next hour. Bloomberg has mark trudeau. This is a day of initial restructuring within mining. We see it with rio tinto and Anglo American. We will look at the industrial effects on number. Dont forget on bloomberg surveillance, later. Stay with us even in hong kongs evening. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance oil captures a slight bit. A west texas 37. 91 with features at 9 in the United States. Nejra thanks, tom. Vladimirme foe of putin is being summoned in a murder case. Moscow officials want to question him about the killing of a siberian mayor 17 years ago. He was once russias richest man and served 10 years in prison. Hes now living in switzerland and his spokeswoman says he will not respond to the summons. The European Union has moved to increase our security. The European Parliament has agreed to new rules that would force businesses to strengthen their defense against hackers. Companiesould require to report attacks. Republicans are democrats are condemning Donald Trumps call for a ban on muslims entering the u. S. Trump read his statement at a rally in south carolina. Mr. Trump Donald J Trump is calling for a total shutdown of muslims entering the United States until our countrys representatives can figure out what that hell is going on. Nejra jeb bush cultural unhinged. Another candidate, chris christie, said this is the kind of thing people say when they have no idea what they are talking about. On capitol hill, congress may have to extend fridays deadline ll that lets the government keeps spending or the talks are complicated by other negotiations on extending a package of tax breaks for small businesses. They may be extended another two years. In south africas amputee olympian Oscar Pistorius is now free on bail. He will remain under house arrest while appealing his murder conviction for killing his girlfriend. Last week, south Africa Supreme Court of appeal overturned his lesser sentence and convicted him of murder. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Guy . Much,hank you very indeed. Mark carney stuck in the middle of the global Monetary Policy game with the fed raising rates while the ecp internees to embrace stimulus. When will the boe raise rates . Lets check in with ubs head of aywe rate strategy, steven s ell still with us. The data that caught my eye was the mortgage lending data. Very strong from q1 to q3. You wonder if the bank of finland has the ability to ma