Couple of political blows to the donald trump administration, he revealed that the fbi is investigating whether any of the president s associates collaborated with the russian government during the election campaign. He said there is no evidence to back up the president claimed that he was wiretapped his predecessor. In europe, french president ial front runner Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron went after each other in a televised debate, she attacked his record and call for a ban on all immigration and a 35 tariff on certain imports. Macron blasted her for her lack of ethics. A former Irish Republican Army commander who helped negotiate peace in Northern Ireland has died. He was 66. He denied allegations that he took part in terrorist activities during the time known as the trouble. He later became the chief anotiator negotiator for arm and eventually became a leader in the powersharing government. A former south Korean Leader has appeared for questioning for the First Time Since the Corruption Scandal that ended her presidency. She apologized to the Korean People and promised to cooperate with investigators. She had immunity from prosecution while in office. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am taylor riggs. This is bloomberg. Tom one day the screen. Quieter equity market. You get that after the central bank festivities of last week. A lot of fed speakers today with the curve flattening. Oil still a 48 handle. Francine a similar data check but i need to look at euro. It kind of moved on the back of what macron was saying. Not a big win for Emmanuel Macron but the markets betting that Marine Le Pen did not come out as president ial as they were hoping and Emmanuel Macron did an ok job. European stocks flat. Pound 1. 2414. Tom events at 11. 13, i miss that missed that. Michael purvis will join us to talk about the complacency within the market. Lets go to the United Kingdom chart, i love this chart, this is inflation in britain back 60 years. Andinflation in the 1970s 1980s. The john major collapse, higher inflation in 1992. Amazing stability, the crisis. Here is a pick up, this puts in perspective the rise in inflation. Yearoveryear, the rise in inflation, putting it in historical context. Years ago, my best back out of u. K. Is they were treatolive oil in ears to your infections. Ear infections. This French Election tracker, this may seem confusing but these are the five candidates that were debating yesterday. Le pen at 26. These are odds for the first round. Le pen, macron, fillon. Line is fading away. Who is that . Francine fillon. He was doing well a couple of months ago. I will bring it back six months. The scandal about the misuse of public funds which was when he fell off the trail. And 18. Is between 17 he is we will get back to the French Elections. A big week of fed speak with will add fuel to the debate over the pace of policy tightening. The new york fed president bill dudley speaking with mark carney in london. This before speeches from mr. George and the dollar is holding its ground after a fourday drop. The move has closed emergingmarket stocks to their longest winning streak since august. Thank you both for joining us. Charles. Give me a sense of what you see in the market. Will it be a lot on politics or the French Elections . Or more on what Central Banks say . The key point is growth. If you look at the French Election, we all understand that there is a very high probability. F macron winning a big surprise if it does not happen. The dollar has been weaker even before the latest polls. The dollar is getting weaker for different reasons, not only for politics. You have Global Financial recovery i think the key point is still that growth is still we should not forget that learning it is very positive elsewhere in francine elsewhere. Francine if you look at why earnings have gone up, the expectation, a lot to do with tax cuts and inflation. Which may be longer in the waiting. Expectation should not be too much in the u. S. , especially in the terms of growth. It is very important to stress thereu. S. Markets is complacency about politics because you have seen President Trump, obamacare, not easy to implement all of the tax cuts that were announced. Tom one of the great debates we are having is the quality of uncertainty. There is financial and investment uncertainty, and Political Uncertainty as well. Does your Political Uncertainty s investmentuca uncertainty . It does, he said he thought Emmanuel Macrons victory seem likely. The best case but not a given. Le pen did not do as well as we may have expected but i do not think that really matters to her core collectors and it may be slightly underestimating in the polls which is why the risk she wins is still high, even if not the best case. That plays into the investment environment and i think growth is picking up in europe. Most people have their growth assumptions pending on these political uncertainties. If le pen wins, that unleashes difficult circumstances in europe. I think we will find their way into the Investment Outlook and the Growth Outlook. Tom what is the gdp outlook for europe . Is it a 2 consonant or could it be better . In the First Quarter, European Growth can be better than 2 which is interesting because tom better than the u. S. . Better than the u. S. , europe grew faster than the u. S. Something astonishing, when you speak to investors, everybody believes u. S. U. S. Growth is booming and europe is in a recession but it is the other way around. Moving forward, the u. S. Will pick up, but European Growth is solid. You have an acceleration in bank lending and Consumer Spending is up. And a significant improvement in investment spending. , also a yes, but nightmare because you are setting policy. If you look at politics, you cannot tell me that fundamentals in Economic Growth in europe are sound. You have germany that is ok. Italy is doing badly, unemployment is 40 for youth. The divergence is a problem for the ecb. Lets not forget that if you look at the euro as growth, the improvement has been significant. Europe has been in a recession since 2013 and now we are going back to a more normal cycle. Trend growth is very low in europe, 2 is very high in that sense. Francine people feel unhappy. We have seen more and more polls , i do not know if it is a problem with distribution or this huge youth unemployment. I was reading something today, 40 of the youth between 18 and 24 would vote for le pen as a protest vote. 1. 5, 2 Growth Outlook is not enough, even according to the cap relations we have now, to greet enough jobs to bring down youth unemployment sustainably. That is why you see populism of the left and right, depending on the country, doing well in most european economies except germany, the netherlands, where the economy is doing well. The European Central bank has used most of their artillery within it and that has caused some tensions with berlin. Over the next few months, you tapered or theg Interest Rates going up slightly. That will remove one of the measures that have sustained European Growth. The question is whether European Growth remains as rosie without the ecb being deployed. Tom a great conversation to get us started this morning and we will continue with our guests in london. A real treat later, james will join us and we will focus on his wonderful new book. It is lovely. It is a compendium of other books on leadership. He made it for his students at the fletcher school. That is the 6 00 hour. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am taylor riggs. Ppg industries is preparing a second takeover bid for axon noble according to people familiar with the matter. The first offer of 22 billion was rejected earlier this month and it is said the bid undervalued decoupling. Softbank group has invested 300 million in a giant. The investment values the new company at 17 billion. They rent out desks and offices to small businesses, freelancers, and other people six taking seeking temporary working space. Investigators expect to find Deutsche Bank according to persons from the with the matter. They are the largest lender who has not agreed to settle the currency case. They said the Justice Department had closed a criminal investigation without filing charges. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you. The leading contenders for the president ial french presidency took the stage, from runners Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron lock horns in a 3. 5 hour showdown. The first round of voting isnt about seven weeks time is in about seven weeks time. The best way to send an honest signal that says we cannot work with you anymore is. O cut off immigration state medical care, access to social housing, assistance, subsidies, and so on. Big trap you are falling into with your provocation is to divide society. To make the more than 4 million french people whose religion is islam and the great majority who are not into humanitarianism, but who live in our public, we could make them enemies of the republic. For me, it is no. Francine lets talk more about the debate. Charles lichfield from eurasia and luca with us in london. We had some polls after the debate which put macron at the top. I urge taking the polls with caution. They are snap polls that do not necessarily encompass all voters, just people who watched. What is important is that macron not that he won more or expanded his face, he needed not to lose the debate. He went into this as the front runner in a difficult position as the centrist. Getting attacked from all sides. He came out standing and that is what matters. Francine there is 40 of french voters undecided. Is that true and will they make their mind up with this debate and others coming up . I think the debate is an important moment. We had about 10 Million Viewers last night. Of 60 million, that is huge, probably the Largest Television audience macr on among others have ever faced. I think will this be a turning point, that is hard to say. It could have been and macron comes out standing which is what he needed to accomplish last night. Tom help me with madame le pen and how she garners the marginal vote. Fascinated by the core constituency and compared to the president of the united states, how does she get the next boat vote . That is a good question. She has essentially already leading the polls. For le pen, if she had a major screwup, that would have mattered. She was incredibly solid, very blunt, very heavy statements, i want to been all immigration ban all immigration and same globalization has been a disaster and i want to fix it. I do not know whether she managed to expand her base but her armor was not dented. Tom was this a discussion of the leads elites . It looks different than the u. S. Debates. How to the rest of the nation take this, or was it a debate for the people of paris . Of 10 million, the biggest Television Audience in 2017. It is huge. It is important to take it with a grain of salt. You are saying if you think back to the u. S. Debate between clinton and trump, clinton came out as the glorious. Victorious. The intelligentsia was loving it but it did not make a difference in the end. We will see what happens here. Tom thank you, brilliant, great perspective on a different tapestry than what we see in the united states. Charles lichfield is with us and help me out with the rest of france. The prison i see is through the newspapers and the think tanks prism i see is to the newspapers and the think tanks, forget about that, what is your perspective on the rest of france as they look at this election . The rest of france is looking at this election through two main perspectives, jobs, the economy with the second being security. On both of them, france is not done particularly well over the last five years. Unemployment is still high and you have had three very large terrorist attacks. They will look at each candidate and tried to work out who offers the biggest departure from what i have currency thats currently. Currently. A lot of the candidates come from the french elite but none etiquette,cept the everyone says they have a completely different approach to the current government. Even Emmanuel Macron who served under the current government until august. The only person who distinguishes themselves is mrs. Le pen who has managed to broaden her base over the last 10 years and now at a ceiling of 30 . The problem for her is that the majority of french voters do not want to see her when. Win. Francine you have another outsider on the extreme end. What are the chances of them uniting . Could that be troublesome for the rest of them . There are still barriers for them doing that, not just party rivalries and ego problems, the fact that there are ideological differences which came out in the debate. They may both be far to the left but there are differences may have, especially on europe and on labor. That prevents them from coming together. Another problem, i do not think the numbers, i do not think you can mathematically assemble them if they came together, a lot of the far left voters would go to other far left candidate. Unlikely they conclude an alliance. Voters on the left could decide to vote tactically and move so there can be a leftwing candidate in the race. If the polls move up at the last minute, that may be the sign there is a three horse race in the second round against le pen. Tom we will come back. 2 00 this afternoon, lets float away, she has been trying to improve for International Business machines. Look for that in the 2 00 hour. An important interview. This is bloomberg. Root bloomberg surveillance. Currency moves, i was surprised on the move yesterday in town and we have a date for triggering article 50. Traders, we pound had a surprise member asking for a rate hike which change the game. A lot of people looking at france coming euro 1. 0794. When you look at the market, why are trader still surprised that brexit is happening . We know all this. What is interesting is to see how they react to the weakness of the dollar. More like a weakness in the dollar than strength in the pound because currency is getting stronger against the dollar. The fed is more dovish and u. S. Growth not taking up as much as in europe and other parts of the world. Francine thank you. Both stay with us. Coming up later, Erik Schatzker live fromwith a ceo investor days, they will talk about expansion and ask about china. This is bloomberg. The biggest week in tv is back. Wow, watchathon has netflix . Hey, drop a beat. [ beatboxing throughout ] show me orange is the new black. Wait, no bloodline. How about bojack . Luke cage. Oh, dj tanner. Maybe show me lilyhammer. Mmm, show me last chance u. On second thought, maybe pompidou. Narcos, fearless, cooked, the crown. Marco polo, lost found. Grace and frankie, hemlock grove. Season one of. Show me house of cards. Xfinity watchathon week starts april 3. Get unlimited access to all of netflix and more, free with xfinity on demand. The dinosaurs extinction. Got you outnumbered. Dont listen to them. Not appropriate. Now im mashing these potatoes with my stick of butter. Why dont you sit over here. Something for everyone is awesome. Find your awesome with the Xfinity Stream app. More to stream to every screen. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua in london. Bill dudley and mark carney Central Bank Speeches to be had. Will join us in the next hour. Usedr in the u. S. , trump a Campaign Style rally to urge the house to pass the obamacare appeal bill. The president spoke in louisville, kentucky. As we move towards the crucial house vote on thursday, the seventh anniversary of passagees very painful , this is our longawaited chance to finally get rid of obamacare. Taylor Republican Leaders have made changes to the obamacare replacement bill to try to get support from their own party. Still, the head of a house conservative group says there are not enough votes for it to pass. And trumps pick for the Supreme Court seat faces a marathon day of questions. Democrats say they plan to hold neil gorsuch to a higher standard, partly because republicans blocked keyrings for merrick garland. Gs for merrick garland. From north africa will have to store devices larger than a cell phone into their check baggage. Declare the macron winner of a televised debate in france. He was attacked on immigration, terrorism, and the economy. Polls show that Marine Le Pen lost ground. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am taylor riggs. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you. We are getting some u. K. Inflation data. More thanaccelerated economists had forecast in february. That means it has managed to breach the bank of englands target for the first time in a few years. Inflation rising to 2. 3 . Economists we spoke to