Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20170605 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance June 5, 2017

The work surveillance in london. This is a after the weekend of terror in london we will be live to the scene of the attack and to westminster with the latest on the investigation and a knock on effect this will have on the u. K. Election. Its on thursday, june 8 that the u. K. Kosovo. We will be joined by anna and nejra in just a second. But first heres first word news. Lets get started with oil here. For countries like by saudi arabia cut diplomate ties with qatar and access to the nation started over and its support for the muslim brotherhood. Rex tillerson has urged members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to remain unified. We encourage the parties to sit down together and address these differences. If there is any role we can play in terms of helping them address those, we think its important for the gcc remain unified. Says present jamie dimon says the bank is hoping to get up on the license in the country and would consider another venture in asias largest economy. Progressave made huge in financial reforms, market reforms. Theyre going to have tough times and we should understand that. Its true for every single country that goes from emerging markets to a developed market. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im david inglis, this is bloomberg. Thank you so much, theresa may is chairing a meeting of the u. K. Governments emergency meeting, cobra, coming after saturday night terror attack in Central London that left several people dead. Sterling is weaker this morning with atrocity raising the stakes in the u. K. Election, which is days away. We have the latest on the political ramifications with anna edwards in was mr. In just a moment. First lets get generic a hitch that joins us from london ridge, the scene of the attack. It seems like we are still in locked out of it we have any more on the identity of the attackers . As far as we understand francine, police are aware of the identity of the attackers. They think they know their identity, but they have not yet released the information about those three attackers that of course were shot dead by police just minutes after they began their attack, which involved ramming into pedestrians on London Bridge in a van before, and working on a spree stabbing spree. A lot of the bridge is courted off behind me, its likely to remain up today, but the station is working fairly normally with trains and underground going in and out and a lot of pedestrians on the streets, commuters walking across London Bridge as i speak. In terms of investigation, 12 arrests were made, one of them was released without charge and property search this morning, please raided a further two properties and have detained a number of other people. Thats what we know so far. An investigation is still ongoing but we know the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack retrenching . We will have plenty more throughout the day. But get to an edwards who is at westminster. How is all of this thing into the election . Good morning, francine. Mealy after the dreadful events, we were supposed to have a policy in campaigning, but it did not last long. We heard from theresa may yesterday morning. She said enough is enough and there needs to be an end to toleration of extremism in britain. So not sure exactly what she difficulthat, but conversations we need to have, often embarrassing conversations in this regard. Jimmy corbyn answered last night, saying we need to have these difficult conversations, we can start by talking about saudi arabia and their role in his view, funding if you missed ideologies. How does this play into the election race . Its on thursday, of course. Its interesting to see what people are voting about. Security is certainly a bigger issue now been it was a few weeks ago. It was all going to be about brexit. Now things have changed. Some of the polling has tightened, but if you look at measures are meant defense and dourity, the conservatives enjoy it more of a substantial lead in that type of polling and they do in the general polls. Does this play into conservative hands . I spoke to Charles Lichfield and he said yes, but theresa may when she was secretary, she did the job for six years. Should she not have been doing more to tackle this, some say . To criticize german corbyn, around his record on terrorism, they say hes soft on terror, he makes uses for terror, something he the humanly denies. He claims his relationship to the ira, he is reluctant to sing the national anthem. They tie all of this together in the hopes it paints a picture that they want find it appealing. Corbyn. 2 theresa mays record at the home office and the authority cuts and the pleasing budget. We will have plenty more from both of them throughout the day. The u. K. Election, terrorism, and Political Risk are all set to be seen at global macroeconomic conference in london today. Global equity strategist joins us there now. Great to have you on the program. Which is this tragedy at the forefront of everyones mind, how do the markets view attacks . These terrible events it is different difficult for the markets to make this on macroeconomic factors. At the moment, volatility is very low despite the events we seen. I think in some senses, this reflects the extent the macroeconomic backdrop is very stable, people have seen very little to trigger a big move one way or another in terms of Interest Rates or growth expectations. I know you dont have a crystal ball and it is extremely difficult to know which pulls to trash or which models. Could this change the election on thursday in the u. K. . As you say, it is very to know how this or other factors will affect the elections. People,s are there for they have been narrowing, they are bored of factors that have impact on the markets. The market have been relatively stable. Because the markets are affected by macro factors. Is that more Central Banks . What does it mean in terms of your positioning ahead of the thursday vote . Banks are obviously very critical. Vote benign backdrop in terms of global Interest Rates. Also, the stronger more global balanced economic picture we have been enjoying over the recent months. It explains relatively low volatility. The u. K. Market, it is anything it is the most global of all equity in industries. It is very much affected and a barometer of the pace and breath of that global backdrop. I think that is what has been reflected in a robust picture for the u. K. Antimarket. Do you see volatility as we get into the summer . Is it in check . I think volatility is a tion the sort of things that people can model that have that impact on the way risky assets will behave. We are in a bull market for equities. That is because they are of their little value. Indeed, also because Global Growth is strong. It rises to a level which is likely to trigger a shock downturn. You really some catalyst to bring them to an end. Equity markets are expensive right now, that catalyst would need to come to some trigger to make a recession look more likely. At this current stage, there is not an obvious catalyst for that to happen in the very near term. That, there will be events that will pick up volatility. There is a combination right now, it is pretty high volatility in the empty market. Youre likely to see a bigger tour because of the combination. You will get what i he stays with us, we will be building up to the u. K. Collection. Also, right here on bloomberg television. You will get instant analysis of the markets as exit polls are published. Heres david england. They are doing how to bolster liquidity drained. According to people familiar with what is going on, it is raising there are plans to me tomorrow with the European Central bank. It is considering seeking oversight from them to guide the discussion. Asking lenders in to waitedit facility until the trader six breathing room. According to the person with knowledge of what is going on, that companys core bank advises them on a 2 billion Credit Facility that actually expires this month. Now, spacex has taken another step toward affordable spaceflight. It had previously supplied this back in 2014. It is starting to feel normal. That is how it is for cars and flames. Jamie diamond says the state of u. S. Infrastructure is embarrassing. Viewcame from an exclusive from bloomberg. President trump will formally launch his big infrastructure plan this week. We havent filled a major airport in 20 years. To told it takes 10 years get the permit for one bridge. A new bridge in your city in 50 years. It is embarrassing. America should get that get back to building and constructing. We need to get back our cando attitude. It is our country. We are getting behind and we shouldnt. He also said the u. S. Is going through a weak recovery. He thinks growth can be increased. Still with us as peter oppenheimer. Peter, thank you so much for sticking around, we want to get back to the u. S. And a second. You can seeyst, that there is in a correction in this kind of bull market. You look at the biggest risks out there, is it china . Is it something to do with geopolitics, is a something with the u. S. Or the Trump Administration promising that he may not be able to push through push through . I think the aspirations of the administration show that the markets hope for those, it has faded quite a bit. Many of which surged after the election. The election of the Trump Administration. The fading of these performances, i think there are huge expectations for big tax reforms, at least for this year. Politics always has the possibility of triggering a correction, the have high evaluations. We have a bench that you discussed in europe with the u. K. Election this week but also potentially an earlier than previously expected italian election. That could bring back some nerves into the market about the the backdrop is the result of that. In terms of more meaningful setbacks, bear markets, i will think that would come from nowhere, it is likely to come from fears about a recession and a downturn and probability. Eventually, we to see some triggers for that. The rates are rising more than expected. That is likely to happen with rates rising a little more than the markets. We also need to look at things that tend to proceed recession like rising unemployment and so on. When we start to get into these points i think we would get more orange flags, we are getting closer to a point where it was more substantial. Talk to make at the bit about the equities, we preferred europe all this year. Nonus secretary market have had minimal. I performance since this since the financial crisis started. It had better Profit Growth. There has been an area where there has been more confident in less concerns about the political backdrop or about the banking markets and systemic risks. The world is more robust globally, economically, because some of those previously seen risks about actor Banking Sector robustness and potential systemic political offenses plating fading, we are getting more markets outside of the u. S. Thanks, capital is now at a more robust level. Reducing some of the risks there. Were seeing stronger Profit Growth in europe than the u. S. For several years. The valuations are more attractive, we would expect to returns for this year. One very brief last question, we are hearing that the saudi led alliances are trying to isolate qatar. How does that translate into your equity world . Much, of play not that course, it could, it has been out into further political developments, we would need to monitor it. I think the important point is by oil price has been driven supply and production by shell. We think that oil prices will our commodityre, team will rise to around 57. As long as it stays within a relatively stable range, that is not likely to spill over significantly into markets that will derail the current relatively stable and robust trend. Peter oppenheimer there chief of Global Strategies and Goldman Sachs. Explain the diplomatic events next. This is bloomberg. This is the latest we have from the u. K. Terror. At the moment, theresa may is still in a meeting. We know that police will increase the significant force in london. They may know the identity of the three attackers that stabbed more than seven people. Within 40 eight people were in hospitals. They still havent released the name and the identity of the men who were near the London Bridge on saturday evening. These attackers were shot dead by Police Officers who fired his bullets. We have plenty on that. Onto our other top story, egypt and the united emirates have cut diplomatic toys ties with guitar. Qatar. They will suspend air and sea travel from and to qatar. From dubai. Us now this didnt come out of the blue. Yousef it has been a few years in the making. They patched things up after the with the recall ambassadors but it really started kicking off in the last couple of weeks with the visit of donald trump to saudi arabia. After that, the accusation was from saudi arabia. Now the blockade across their land and sea from some of these countries, there is a lot going around it. Ferocity of this decision to move ahead with the blockade is unprecedented. This is the new crisis law. Let me show you what that means in terms of trade. This is for qatar. Egypt and saudi arabia are on the 12. Hes respect to imports, the united emirates goes up. Important to remember that a lot of food is imported by qatar. Citizens will be affected, they are not allowed to stay long. At thisme a quick look alert. The airlines are affected by this. Reactione seen a big on the qatar stock exchange. Most of the stocks were affected quite significantly. In 12 months, there are people that are going to be betting against the weakening currency going lowered. Mitsubishi,course, the potential rates are open and will significantly impact oil prices. They are also speculating on a fullfledged confrontation. Thank you so much. Next, keeping calm and carrying on after saturdays attacks. London has to go back to work. This is bloomberg. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. So we need tablets installed. With the menu app ready to roll. In 12 weeks. Yeah. The world of fast food is being changed by faster networks. Data, applications, customer experience. Which is why comcast business delivers Consistent Network Performance and speed across all your locations. Fast connections everywhere. Thats how you outmaneuver. Frances this is bloomberg urveillance francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Sterling is weaker. Nerja is at the scene of the london attack. Do we know so far in terms of Police Presence and the identity of the perpetrators . Nerja that is one key piece of. Nformation the police say although they might know the identities of they are notrs, releasing information yet. That is something we are waiting for. This emergency cobra meeting began with theresa may and other ministers into departmental officials as well. Far is thereso have been 12 arrests. One person was released without charge. R propertiesd fou in london. The investigation has gathered momentum. Properties raided and detained a number of people. Up. , security is ramped there are police vans and officers around the area. We understand it will probably thein cordoned off for majority of the day. Trains and underground running and a lot of commuters have been walking by as i have beens taking. The last thing we know is the Islamic State has created responsibility for this attack. We are waiting on the identity of those three attackers. We are getting pmis figures, below estimates. Important to mention them for our global viewers. This is the biggest component of the u. K. Economy. It has a little impact on pound. Pound was also weaker in the wake of these attacks. Lets get more on this risk. An independent global risk consultancy. With you. Peak give us a sense of how this can impact the political sphere. There is a lot of talk of this attack. Are they going to impact the u. K. Elections . Whatever happens on thursday and when we wake up on friday morning and we know the results, people will be wise in terms of the political impact of this attack. To play ins going the couple coming of days. Yes, they will play, but i think it will be other issues that will decide this. Whoever comes into power and forms a new government, this and how terrorism intelligence is collected, and in particular, what that means for online platforms. It will be a big issue going forward. There will be a lot more to see on that coming up. Francine how difficult is it to prevent these types of attacks . It is extremely difficult. If we take the three from the United Kingdom, the one in westminster, which was the most basic and the one in manchester,here it was more sophisticated to this one on saturday, where there were three people involved, maybe others, but the method was basic in term of using a van and knives. Security services say they have intercepted 18 complex plots. It is very difficult. There are some 500 people we know under observation who want to stop people who get a hold of a vehicle and a knife. Francine we had the Manchester Attacks two weeks ago, there was concerns about intelligence sharing. Share less intelligence, does this put the u. K. More at risk . You saw Quick Reaction in the when those photographs were leaked in the United States. There is talk about brexit and what happens after that. Lets be clear. Have an interest in sharing intelligence. I think that will continue. If you take russia for example, there is a lot of shared interest. Ith the attacks on u. K. Soil, is there information on why the u. K. Seems to be so heavily . It is expected the u. K. Would be subject to these kind of attac

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