Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20140312 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse March 12, 2014

Remains an acquisition target. Down three point desperate. 7 . Lets go out and talk about the companies with tom Forward Guidance going through tough guidance. Blaming the Energy Vendor and are going abroad. Down andends will be the net income is down. These are bad numbers and they are putting blame on the government. It looks like a stock is dropping this morning. Whats we will get back to you for a full report shortly. Im keeping an eye on a tiny banks that are in focus. The italian banks that are in focus. Have a competitive banking sector. Lets check in on the price of some of those. We have the seventh Straight Loss and we have unicredit and the view is the worst that has passed. Is bigger than the market had estimated. Lets talk to jon ferro about what else is on the move. It is creeping higher. The ecb talked yesterday and they said that we misunderstood. They can do more and people are not buying it. Im excited about ipo day. Im going to get to the markets. The equities are lower and the futures are pointing lower. That is exactly what you have. The ftse 100 is down. Likewise for the dax. And half of one percent and the ftse is moving into italy lower. I will talk a little bit about that later. For the first 10 minutes of on the move, china will be a focus. Iron ore is in a bear market. Look at this selloff here. Down 12 so far. There is a concern about what is going on in china, a country that consumes 40 of this mess. What goes on there matters. The the decline of the made in china label. It is showing signs of fatigue. Lastave seen it over the couple of days. They are struggling to a race the losses. Keep an eye on the bottom of your screen because there is breaking news from spain. Earcpi index rose from the year earlier. Admin adminis edmund. It is great to have you with us. We were talking about copper and it is moving higher. The focus on the market seems to be what is going on in china. Talk me through what you are thinking and how that plays out. I think that the Chinese Government has been deliberately stressing reform overgrowth and they have made a clear choice. They had started by saying they would achieve 7. 5 growth in 2014 and they have been stressing that they need to reform and rebound economy. Im sure they will make seven percent and i think you have underplayed the hand. I think the copper move is an overreaction and what is more important is not the exchange. Were seeing the shift lower and iron ore. Zinn zinc and aluminum have moved higher. To me, i think it is more of a new want richer than you make out, by looking at copper. Copper is collapsing. I think that is an overreaction. It is an excellent time to be buying globally because they are making huge efforts. I think it is not a disaster. We do not get as excited as other new station. News sew stations tations. I am reading that they may get leniency. That is tugging at the margins, really. There is serious endemic problems in the chinese banking sector. Their r a has been for some time. That is not really change and the Chinese Government is quite sure that they are going to reform and they have reforms wally desk slowly slowly. They cut off credit when they needed it the most. We want them to not do that because that is why they are trying to dr. Balance by allowing liquidity counterbalanced by allowing the quiddity into the markets liquidity into the markets. There was an exciting stock and there was more pressure to come on utilities. That seems to be the message. I dont think that is a great surprise because germany has a commitment to and nuclear. Of what is happening in the ukraine and russia, that is difficult. 50 of gas comes from russia by the ukraine. Ouch. However, replacing nuclear is going to be difficult and they do not want to do that with something that is polluting. What choice do they have other than to use natural gas and where will they get it without russia . They will move towards shield oil in shale gas. Il and shale shale ou gas. We will get into some of your big thoughts. It is not time to sell the u. S. Market. That is good to know. Stay with me. The equity funds manager over at tcs. Bcs. Here is what is coming up. Big losses at big banks. We will talk to lenders later in the hour. Protests throughout turkey. We will bring you the stories. The latest on the ukraines Prime Minister. The goes to washington to meet with obama. What is at stake . We will go into that later in the hour. Once in london, this is on the move. Streaming on your phone, your tablet, and on bloomberg. Com full up still with us is the Global Equity funds manager. Or in the break, we discussed a couple of ipos and what is your that at home. You have a lot of valuation in this area that is a little stretch. Flex we had a rush to the market by a lot of by the equity groups on. Have tried to hang but you are disparaging a private equities. Are all very rich. That is what i have to say and i think that these are scary. You look at the recent valuations and that was off of the scale. Is always about the valuation and what worries me is that people are getting a little overheated with the valuations and are chasing the mark. The Investment Bankers are happy to push the valuations. Going getting through and through the price trap. It looks to me that it is 345. Ng at that is where we are at the moment. That is quite an indication. Let us move it along. You have sent in a piece that talks about Global Equities. U. S. ,g off with the household exposure is back to where it was. Up andr optimism is margin trading is ramping away. To tell meing something . Im pointing out there are signalsy clear warning and one should not be over optimistic about the future of the market. If you think about the u. S. Stock market, there are 30 returns that do not happen very often and you cannot expect that they will repeat for a second year. The earnings are stronger than they were in 1999. Whats they are. There is an earning story. I think valuations in 2007 is a good news. Theuld argue that valuations are outside of the u. S. You have the ability to run higher and you look towards the brakes. I would say that it depends on who. Do not look at the screens every day. Look at the countries like russia that are trading at four times pe and have structural challenges. There is no doubt about that. That is reflected in the valuations. 27 ofket is still below its peak in 2007. There is plenty of value to be had and perhaps you do have to look among the wreckage. You may be go country by country and sector by sector. There are places like taiwan or south korea that have a number of world leading technologies that may be the place to start looking. So, be discerning when you are looking at the markets. This is the most confident statement that i have seen. That is at the periphery of you talkedt is, and about italy, greece, and spain, could be the new defensive. That is quite strong. Justify yourself. Start with iua shouldnt. The valuations of these countries, if you took them cyclically start with the valuations. With the valuations of the countries, if you look at them cyclically, they are good longterm. Austerity has really bitten in those countries and they are deflating their way out of out of the overinflated wages that they had that were the problem. There is no growth. Do you justify the index or do you get more discerning about questionsh Companies Mark i would not go that far companies . I would not go that far. There are a lot of banks and insurance companies. What we see with the banks is a huge amount of restructuring and reviews coming and. They are going to want to make the point that the big european banks concluded including the. Banks the per referral eriferal banks are sound. Isbe point about equities 1999. Tech is structurally different in 2014. Most make money and some of them may be deliver healthy profits. Talk me through your thinking. 1999, except for social media socks stocks. About those. Ng i think they are ridiculous. Im talking about the boring tech. We have the cash balances on their Balance Sheets that are enormous and they are trading around nine times pe. Talking1999, we were 40, 50, 60 times. I think they still offer growth and healthy dividends. Again, you want to buy things and they will all participate in one way or another. Shale gas is something you like. I love it in the u. S. Ould suggest that you play i love it in the u. S. And i would suggest that you play it by company. What is more certain is that there will be equipment and services and that is guaranteed. Is put back on shale Gas Exploration in the u. K. And poland. They are trying to surge ahead and encourage investment. I think china needs an alternative to russia. Quickly, the mining industry, we touched on china and i love your line, cheap as chips. They are. They are. They are, as you pointed out, affected by the pessimism over china that could turn around. Selling are looking at assets and refocusing on profitability, that is what you want to hear from any company and that is what they are doing. I like what you said, for investors, you look towards the bigger trend. It is always good to have you at bloomberg. Thank you for coming in. The Global Equities fund manager at bcs. Credential is the Insurance Company in the United Kingdom and their operating profits are 2. 9 billion crowns pounds and they beat estimates. Trading up and some of the top headlines coming out is that they see the future prospects in asia that are wellpositioned to deliver good value. The operating profit, as they had shares rising and we will have an interview later on. Were 33. 5 and stay tunedcast for bloomberg on the latest. They have beat analyst estimates. Going public. We will bring you the details, the newest Public Companies after the break. Welcome back to on the move. Here are companies on the move. Profits thatorted came in at 158 Million Euros and were better than analyst estimates. They said that the trend in the first few months concerns growth forecasts. Exploring thebe sale of their unit. That they are reviewing the Company Portfolio before a strategy update in may. Will lettalia shareholders vote on the new chairman at the annual meeting on april 16. Maniacally the minority shareholders more control. Loweran utility reported returns and blamed the government. We are in berlin with a little more. They are doing a little better in italy. Them, they look at have the market outside of western europe and that may explain the strong growth numbers. A is a different story and 45 reduction in dividends. The ceo took clear and at merkel. The ramifications of policy decisions in germany and market prices continue to have an adverse impact on our generation portfolio. That is a mainstay of our business. That is a longwinded quote and a way of saying that it is hurting shareholders and we need ability to to our generate power to sell on the market without too many distortions from the government. Ok. Thank you for that. Let us move it along. We mentioned share sales in london and they shop everything. Unless you are annoying customer who picks up something and says, how much is this . It was priced to go 300 pounds. Where did it open . 365 and it came back a little bit. We did not get that. And youtake your dog in can buy various accessories. What they want to know is that the companies were priced at the top end of the perspective ranges. Companieste for these is quite large. Originalere one of the private Equity Companies and i edmund and he is questioning the validity of some of these. The retailers are up this year and the appetite for equities is there. I spoke to Richard Dunbar and he talked about the private Equity Companies. Behind some of these companies, waiting for the right window to push the ipo out. They think it is right here and right now. Date, look at the year to 3. 7 billion is what companies have raised so far this year. How with the appetite . For some amount of time last year, it was less. Bet on the u. K. Economy recovering and whether it energizes high street. The loss is a little bit later. Thank you for that break down of the most recent ipos in london. Lets give you a look at the market into the trading day. The equity markets are a little bit lower at the moment. Basically, you have the u. K. Andping for the fourth day the British American tobacco falls in london. Generally, the stocks are coming off a little bit and we see some pressure in the chinese market. We will leave it there and after the break, well talk more about it. Welcome back to on the move. I am manus cranny. We have him back in london and we are talking about the ukrainian interim Prime Minister. He meets with president obama in washington and one of the topics on the agenda is the 1 billion Loan Guarantee that the u. S. Has offered the ukraine. Ryan chilcote is here with the details. Talk us through what the u. S. Will do to back up this. It is the only Financial Assistance that is already on the table and will go to the senate. It has been approved by the house and it looks like it will happen. Issue debt andl the u. S. Will guarantee the debt. The idea is to lower the borrowing cost for the ukraine. The risk premium that investors demand when they lend to the ukraine, versus the United States, is more than 10 Percentage Points. It is high, second only to venezuela. If ukraine is going to stand a shot in this tumultuous time, obviously, the borrowing cost have to come down. They did this in the middle east and the u. S. Guarantee some loans that jordan issued. The risk premium was 60 basis points. In 2012, it was the same thing. The United States guaranteed its debt. The debt thatt the u. S. Guarantees. On all that. There is a halo on that and an assumption that that is ok. The u. S. Is never defaulted. It has always lived up. They have a big punch. Talk to me about the sanctions. Haveow that the states already moved a little bit further and quickly, in terms of sanctions, relative to europe. There are two objectives. To stop the russians from annexing crimea and going in to eastern ukraine. The parliament did not approve a piece of legislation that wouldve allowed them to annex crimea. That is perceived as a positive sign. The sanctions are likely to come in any case and they will be limited in scope. The United States has banned some russian officials from traveling to the United States. You can expect the group to grow a bit and we can see this for the europeans as well. Or people of assets associated with gruden. That is a bigger threat, isnt it . It is. It would go after associates in the Defense Ministry and the National Security apparatus that. S seen as critical is good to have you back. A good job. Latestilcote, with the on the developing situation in ukraine. Let us turn our attention to turkish cities and the death of a teenager injured during a crackdown last year. Elliott has been following the story. The angeris adding to over the government and corruption allegations here, isnt it . That is right. It is adding it could get worse. There are allegations that implicate everyone from the Prime Minister and other ministers to families and associates. Prompted the Prime Minister to say that he would ban youtube and facebook. The 15yearold boy who went out shopping for a loaf of bread at the height of the protests and istanbul. Thens been in a coma since and he died yesterday. Today is the funeral in istanbul. There are concerns that further violence will be inevitable when the funeral of takes place today and there are further clashes. Thank you very much. Elliott gotkine in the middle east. Ok, these are the top headlines. The Malaysian Air force chief 370 deviated that their path and the comment add to the confusion surrounding the search for the missing plane that enters its sixth day. Search efforts, as more information is weighted on from malaysia. Links toion euros are fx probes. More than 1000 people, including areers and consultants working on investigations. Pimcos holdings of u. S. Treasuries. The investor bets that the Federal Reserve will conclude bond buying this year. The commented on twitter. Sell what the fed is buying because they will not be buying them when the taper ends in october. George soros sits down with francine. That is the reason why im here and she is not. Do not miss that special interview that you really want to be tuned into later on in the day. Let us just briefly update you now with some live pictures coming to you from the media center with the Malaysian Airline rest conference that is set to start the next 20 minutes. Well get more detail with what flightg on with the after it went off the radar screen. We will stay abreast of that situation. Italy is in focus and two of the biggest banks posted big fourthquarter losses. What do the results mean for the lenders, and terms of the credit story and the equity story. The head of Macro Credit Research at rbs. Great to have you here. Unicredit. About the message from the ceo is that the worst has passed. Would you agree when you look at the situation . Have a division, effectively and they announced 40 billion and a massive increase in loan loss provisions. This is course funding to the tough environment in italy where there are rising bad loans from businesses and consumers that are struggling and rising unemployment. Do as much thinking as possible before that and they have a Strong Revenue base of 24 billion in your the revenues that have only gone down. They have from the kitchen sink in. For unicredit, the message is clear and we do not know if this is the end of the provisions. We have seen banks turn the corne

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