All this comes before we get Apple Earnings tomorrow. Pretty good week for central bank earnings. But for now, pretty quiet. Wait and see has to find the markets. Is at ank market important juncture because the s p 500 last made its record high may 21, 2015. Since then it is come pretty close to matching that high, but no cigar. Months. Mes in the last july, november, and a less week when we got within 1 of that record high we cannot get past that final hurdle. We are seeing a bit of a backup in rates everywhere you look. This chart on your screen is a oneyear look at the 10 year yield on german boon. Now over 0. 2. Not too dramatic. But you can see there was a huge tantrum last spring, some people talk about we see a repeat of that . We are nowhere to that we are seeing yields rise despite the lack of rally and equity markets. Tracey lets look specifically at the british pound against the u. S. Dollar. The pound rising to its strongest level against the dollar and more than two months. This is theyve on the idea that remain cast is strengthening. We have some bearish size for the u. S. Dollar. Hedge funds coming out bearish for the dollar for the first time in Something Like many, many months, at least since july 2014. A driver for equity to date a drop in crude oil prices. 11 a lot of a lot of different crosscurrents. Increasing production, that you have investors trying to assess what it would mean for a Global Rebalancing effort. Some Big Oil Companies are going to be reporting earnings this week. A lot of stuff for investors to sift through. Those are todays market minutes, now is take a deep dive into the bloomberg. Im glad you brought hedge funds and their position against the dollar. You said it up perfectly, because the dollar has come and gone and this is the latest data. Remember when everyone was betting on Monetary Policy divergence . That is not happening right now in the same way it was before. Large speculatives are now betting on dollar weakness for the First Time Since july of 2014, near the front of that chart, the left. The fed cut its inflation forecast and signaled rate increases this year. Theoretically the divergent argument still holds water considering how much closer the fed seems to be to its targets versus other major central banks. But with the selloff were definitely seeing speculators change their tune. I want to look at Economic Data from this morning, housing continues to be one of the arguments that the ecobowls use that there is still a lot of potential left in this recovery. New homeo we have sales out this morning, singlefamily houses. The data is mediocre. I want to give context at some of the numbers. Incredibly low levels for home sales, prior to the downturn the last time we were at these levels was in the early 1990s. This white line at the bottom is homes for sale. One of the reasons homes have not taken off in terms of recovery is people are saying theres not any inventory. You can really see this, if you go before the downturn, the last time we had these few homes for sale was 1980. You have to go back that far to be this little inventory on the market. You have to figure, there is plenty of room on the upside for monthsings it this data was not that great, the bowler side said there is a long way to go. Not like yout is could just change a switch. Joe it takes time and labor, which is in short supply. This is a case with there may be im taking a look at something and will bit different, this is a Technical Analysis indicator in the s p 500. It is a golden cross, when the shortterm moving average moves above the longerterm average 200 day. Most people take that as a bullish sign, good for stocks. However, i think we should mention the last time we had a golden cross was in december right before the index fell almost 10 over the course of the next month. So make of this what you will. Scarlet debbie downer. Tracey you can see all these charts and more on twitter. Here to help set the scene i want to bring in Bloomberg News reporter. Oliver we are going way down. Joe what are you seeing happening in earnings . We still have a long way to go, but are there any interesting trends youre seeing . Oliver overall it is largely playing out as most people expected were you have lobar, and companies are beating that bar. But we have some rocking us. We are flat from two weeks ago. Thing, one particular maybe it is related to earnings, maybe other things, that if you actually look at what has happened here with stocks and s puations, looking at the it is flat, but look at evaluations and they have risen. Parties because earnings are down. That calling into question what people were calling were paying. Those sectors that did a very well and got up too high evaluations. Staples, they were paying 22 times for these names. You go into earnings, maybe it is earnings related, maybe it is treasury. Then you have people going to reassess and moving away, and those three sectors have now flipped and are the worst. Youre seeing a rotation here, part of it is a violation related. Scarlet overall we have seen a significant rally, but it does not feel like investors are that happy about it. There still seems to be a lot nervousness left in the market. Oliver one word is anxiety. It shows up and everything. We talked a lot about these volatility products. Trackge creative funds, volatility. At the same time, although we have seen a Short Covering rally, an average they remain historically very high. Stocks, speculative positions, and i think that indicates questions about company fundamentals. If you actually look at cash levels, this is been leaning over the past couple days, they have gone pretty high and brought back up to january levels. Much managers how are keeping their money and cash. Even though it is not yielding anything, by some definition it is a negative yield. It does not make sense, why people are doing that. I think people are caught offguard by what happened in january and february and are still looming questions out there. People are not taking part in the rally. Last week we got within 1 of the high. The companies themselves are in a blackout. Joe what are people saying about this blackout. Buybacks of the main source of demand, this quarter i have not heard as much about the blackout. Is that something people are still talking about . Happeningybe what is is breaking the conventional wisdom of how buybacks work. There is a committee of people who are vocal about buybacks. Companies were the biggest buyers of equities in the first couple months of the year. But this theory that is out there from a certain timidity on wall street that buybacks and engineering are the only thing keeping the stock market afloat, there are holes in that. Example, maybe the earnings beats are more of a factor. It is hard to know. Yes, people buy back shares, it is a big part of the market. All whether it is all the only thing that has brought us up, i think is hard to say. Maybe if you have a earnings season where your blackout, and youre are doing well, that pokes some holes in it. You have been looking at how people are pulling money out of u. S. Funds. Even as the u. S. Is outperforming. Why is that . Oliver it is hard to put a finger on it. A lot of it will be this idea of investors chasing quantitative using. Is a big story right now but what is happening around the globe is diverges between Interest Rate policies here and other markets. This divergence between demo economies markets, equity markets versus emerging market, it is interesting. The orange line here, that has developed markets. The white line is emergingmarket equities and that outperformance is unparalleled. You have to go back to 2010 to see a brief. In which that outperformance exists as strong as it does right now. Perhaps some of the concern about china was a little overblown and we have seen that weakness in the dollar over the that isple months, helping alleviate some of the concerns that beset those markets at the beginning of the year. Thank you for helping us set the scene for this week. Coming up, since the start of the year warning signs have been popping up signaling a u. S. Recession. Our things as bad as they seem or are they better . Has wrapped obama up his trip to europe and saudi arabia and is headed back home. Earlier today the president met with heads of state from france, United Kingdom and germany. They touched on a wide range of topics including the battle against isil, the civil war in syria and the refugee crisis. Donald trump meet another big win tomorrow night to stay on track to clinch the nomination for president by the end of the primaries. Five states vote. He can only afford to lose one. There are 172 delegates up for grabs. Mr. Trump could walk away with 92 delegates. He heads into tuesdays contest with a hundred 45. It takes 1237 to win the nomination. Fatallyfied assailants hacked two men in bangladeshs capital including a gayrights activist. Ofice said it is the latest a series of attacks targeting atheists, modernists and foreigners. There was no claim of responsibility. Withthan 3300 foreigners suspected links to jihadist groups have been deported from turkey. That is according to a Government Official who says another 41,000 foreigners have been barred from entering the country. Deadly bomb attacks in turkey since july have been blamed on islamic states. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Data on temporary help is flashing a possible warning sign of a recession. Take a look at this chart. Lastdid was speaker the two recessions. Right now it is showing signs of rolling over. Is this simply a pause or a sign of something more ominous . Lets bring in our guest. Aging partner at you said there was a 40 chance that the u. S. Would go into a recession this year. You are here a couple weeks ago and said anyone who talks of a recession should be publicly shamed on air. Should dan shamed on air . Know because he didnt say 50 . It is a game we play on the south side. We had this 50 chance of recession, every time a data point would come out mood up date the recession odds. There is not any sector of the economy that is particularly stressed right now here what gets a now. What gets a recession is an aggressive economy. Upbeatthe reasons i more is that we have two unusual features. The economy is close to full employment, at least many of this and that, and we have some recovery in the Housing Market. The Housing Market is rolling over. Have a when the economy is at full employment you see fiscal policy going from neutral to type. Type now it is going to two slightly collated. There are economists that point to nearly precipice as the catalyst for the recession. Mind, the Unemployment Rate is not moved for six months. Fact that the Unemployment Rate is moving more slowly i think is a positive sign. I think we dont have anything to worry about about being over employed in this country. 14 and a half million jobs. Thatump into categories collectively pay 16 an hour and evolved 30 hours a work a week. 25,000 a year compensation. These are not typical jobs that would come at a peak of anything. Not believe were anything near full employment, obviously we are still bedeviled by a low labor force participation. A lot people excuse on the basis of demographics. If you look underneath those demographics, there is a lot more at play. What im concerned about is the same thing that has bedeviled us since this whole recovery started in that is that we have to do with the rest of the world. Trying to actually construct models, it is very difficult. There is no really good will model. These institutions that aggregate data. As a practical matter there is no world model. We do know is that japan, china, and western europe are in difficult situations. They are competing for incredibly inadequate demand relative to global supply. You saw what happened last week. He tried to talk it down by saying he was going out and buying all sorts of things. All sorts of crazy ideas. And the yen started to tank and then reverse itself. This will mean that the only tool left for the ecb, the banks of japan, and china has been doing this all along, his direct intervention in the currency market. Im worried about the rest of the world but there is a statute of limitations that there will spill over and send the u. S. Economy into a recession. It has not happened yet. I agree that there are more concerned about what is going on globally and i do think the fed is gravitating to this role of being the backstop of the global economy. They were waiting for the rest of them to catch up without naming names. The new have to ask yourself as a strategist or a forecaster, what is the likely scenario going to be here . Of a scenario, the optimal policy is for the fed to let inflation in the u. S. Surge to offset disinflation everywhere else. I think that is what janet is telling us. She will let inflation run hot in the u. S. To the point where people will begin to dump their treasuries. When that happens, then the fed will go. Wait, wait. I am calling time on our first round. This is been a great debate so far, it is not over. We will be continuing the discussion right after this. We are back. They are in two separate cans over whether or not we are seeing signs of a u. S. Recession and they are debating. Is imagined back in january you saw a 40 chance of recession this year. The latest information puts growth at 0. 3 . Where are you now . Slightly less, but that is a technical argument. There is no difference between 0. 3 and 1. As a practical matter, that is not really was going on. What is going on is we have a lot people still looking at this as though we are in a normal business cyclical environment. I do not believe we are. It is creating fluctuations within the environment. Also macro economically, you have an enormous amount of countries out there, enormous markets, that are eager to fuel demand from the United States and they have been doing that successfully. Every so often however, they run out of gas. Suddenly, their economies tank and they respond with more the same, and that brings the dollar back up, drops out exports and more importantly, heightens the impact of low cost import which really hurts the United States. The dollar is in putting pressure on core inflation. You look at the currency market, u. S. Policy has been getting tighter relative to europe for the better part of a urine have. A year and a half. I think they are trying to do other things now. With respect to gdp now, how he times do we have to go through this . If you believe all the Economic Data and take it at face value, u. S. Employers are hiring 2000 people a month to produce nothing. There is a wide range of studies stableow that the more of output is employment, growing at a healthy rate. We can talk about productivity but i do not think productivity growth there is a reason productivity is so low and as because labor is the new capital investment. People are hiring people and getting rid of them when they do not need them because they are are unwilling to make investments they cannot dismiss here. Im sorry to call it when it is just getting heated, im sure we could go on but we have to cut it short. Thank you so much for a great debate. Coming up, this time tomorrow will be moments away from apples earnings. Next we will dig into the companys numbers and take a look at white iphone is so important. Lets get to first word news. John kasich is calling off to planned Public Events in indiana after his agreement to stand aside for ted cruz in the state. Kasich had planned tuesday vincent indianapolis and noblesville, but he announced a voting give ted cruz here a clear path for indianas may 3 president ial primary. I dont see this is any big deal other than the fact that im not going to spend resources in indiana and hes not going to spend in other places. So what . Whats the big deal . Mark attorney general loretta smooth theying to way for governors to make it easier for convicted felons to obtain state issues identification, saying roughly 600,000 state and federal prisoners are released each year. Prime minister and canadian Prime Minister trudeau is describing the coldblooded murder of a canadian hostage in the philippines. The 68yearold from alberta was one of four tourists in the that last september threatened to kill one of the hostages if a large ransom was not paid by today. A syrian refugee was seriously , will carry bombing the olympic flame in the greek leg of the torch relay. He will carry the torch at an athens refugee camp hosting 1500 people tomorrow, the next to last day of the relay there. Handed to brazilian officials next wednesday. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 100 if the news bureaus around the world. Im mark crumpton. Joe todays Market Action pretty muted. Nothing too dramatic. One big loser, Energy Stocks down over 1 today. There were some big a nurse last week. Consumer staples rallying but overall fairly flat. It has been pretty brought based. Broad based. We have some big events coming up later in the week. We might get some action later in the week. Speaking of big earnings, apple is set to report. We will head over to scarlet fu has more. Scarlet the company has artie warned investors that results will bear bad news, the question now is just atbat. The numbers dont lie. Analyst project that apple will sell just over 50 million handsets in the first three months of the year, down everything percent from the same time a year ago. Apple is not alone. The estimate global smart phone sales will only grow 7 this year, the slowest rate in the product cost history. And macntrast the ipad makeup less than 10 each. Back in january apple predicted quarterly revenue would decline for the First Time Since 2003. Analysts on average are looking of 52 billion dollars, roughly a 10 drop from year earlier. The outlook helped send apple slide overr, a 21 the past 12 months. Apple and samsung led the highend smart phone market. Together a combined 92 of the market. It comes to apple, the distinction is it is almost completely reliant on the premium segment. As a result, apple is investing in new products and Services Like the apple watch. Iteration of the device is probably around the cor