Us together, but the economics are only part of the story. Mark Prime Minister may accused the scottish Prime Minister of sacrificing the recent Living Standards in her pursuit of a break away from the u. K. May is trying to avert another independence referendum. Chinas president wants no drama at the annual National Peoples conference that kicks off this weekend. Meeting that Party Takes Place twice a decade, almost half of chinese Senior Leaders may be replaced, and she wants to win backing for his attempts to overhaul chinas economy. Global news to four hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in over 2100 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u. S. U. S. Equities barely moving. Joe the question is whatd you miss . Scarlet janet yellen on pace to hikes. The pace on right a big week ahead for election watchers. Emmanuel macron overtaking Marine Le Pen for the first time. N polling and how to engage with the Trump Administration. The ambassador of greece in washington joins us next on greeces debt yield and the fate of the euro. Joe lets look at where the major averages stand as we head toward the close. Abigail doolittle standing by. Abigail not a lot happening heading into the close. The dow, s p, 500 all up ever so slightly after really slipping between small gains and losses on the day. This comes in the context of a pretty volatile week. We have the best rally for stocks on the year. Yesterday, we had the worst pullback in more than a month, and now we have very little happening. Its worth noting a week again for all the averages. The s p 500, the sixth of week in a row. Clearly more bullish than not. Where we have had Movement Today is the bloomberg dollar index, now down more than. 6 , a big move for a currency, the worst drop since the end of january, initially taking a leg lower. Fed chair janet yellen did give a speech in chicago reiterating the fed is likely to raise rates. This is not necessarily the reaction you would expect, and interestingly, also at odds with what investors are expecting. This could be the story of the week despite the big rally, this is the movement up. World Interest Rate probability. Now 96 . , its going into Janet Yellens speech, it was 90 . Investors are certain the fed will raise rates. 100 going into that rate hike. The second in a decade. Really seems like investors are betting on this happening. Joe thanks, abigail. Lets talk more about the Federal Reserve because janet yellen gave a big speech in chicago. Here are some highlights from the meeting. Is a key 1 is at our meeting later this month, the committee will evaluate if employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case, a further adjustment of the federal funds rate will likely e appropriate. Shes pretty much saying its pretty much a go unless something happens in next weeks jobs report. Toshe saying theyre going hike, but its not going to be particularly fast. And one more key quote where she says the committee currently assesses the risks to the outlook to be roughly balanced, so she says they are probably going to hike. Is still theual plan, and this puts more of a focus on the jobs report friday. The consensus right now among afterss that was surveyed 227,000 jobs in january. Janet yellen lowered the bar when it comes to expectations. She says the longterm Labor Force Growth rate is about 75,000 to 120,000 a month, so a big gain is not necessarily needed for the fed to consider that ok to go ahead and hike rates. The International Outlook is Something Else that i find really interesting. Earlier in the year, last year, we were all saying the fed seemed to have this unofficial third mandate in a fish in addition to unemployment was the idea that the International Developments needed to be stable, and that has changed. It is fairly stable. If you look at headline cpi, not core, and china seems to be stable as well. Joe we are in this period where the Global Growth situation seems to be about as coordinated as it will be for a while. Whatd you miss . Greece and its creditors look poised to strike a deal that will 11 the nation to drawdown eight and avoid defaulting on in debts in july, the latest a long line of compromises meant to help the struggling nation controversy. The question is this the solution to greeces overwhelming debt level . Ambassador, thank you very much for joining us. Are you confident that your country is going to reach a deal and be able to continue with the existing bailout plan . Good afternoon. Very good to be with you. Greece is doing its part in a long, protracted, and difficult negotiation with the representatives of the creditors for quite some time now. But our goal is precisely to do all parts and reach a solution, reach an understanding which will enable grease to Carry Forward and continue along the track which has moved us finally last year after several years of. Ecession back on growth for the first time in the year 2016, greece recorded positive growth. It was not spectacular, but it yearery positive, and this , the forecast, not only of the greek statistical bureau, but also of the Statistical Services of International Organizations like the european union, like the imf and the oecd, are projecting growth of 2. 7 and for next year, even above 3 . Meanwhile, greece was ahead of the target agreed for last years budget primary surplus, whereas the goal was in the magnitude of 4. 5 . Greece actually managed to have growth of close to 2 of gdp as primary surplus, so this for the nearnd future and longterm. Scarlet how optimistic are you that an agreement can be made before the next election . There are eight series of very important elections in European Countries between now and the fall. These are elections the outcome of which will be very important not only for the nations direct concern but for the european continent as a whole and perhaps for the world. The stakes of these elections are far reaching, and i do not think that the state of the Greek Economy will be the determining factor for the outcome of these elections. However, to the extent that it does play a role and it does so in some countries more than others, this is something that greece cannot change. What we can do is to continue our part of the deal, continued the negotiation in good faith, development onod february 20, and now the goal, which is a realistic goal, is to have an agreement by march 20, so not very long down the road. Joe lets turn over to u. S. Politics. Obviously, we had to change in president s. Im looking at a tweet from october 9, 2012, from donald trump. He said, greece should get out of the euro and go back to their own currency. They are just wasting time. Over four years later, youre still dealing with bailouts. How concerned are you over the fact that the Obama Administration was very proeu, and this new administration, trump has said greeces trying to stay in the euro was a waste of time and more generally seems hostilensiderably more towards the idea of the eu . More time to need see what the true intentions of the administration will be. What we have started as the to have ourf greece First Contacts with people of the International Financial the eus body of president we are looking forward to having our First Contact between the greek Prime Minister of finance and his counterpart, the eu secretary of treasury, and we are confident that we will be able to present and also to clearly highlight why we believe that it is in the interest of the United States to help greece with economic and Financial Stability, which in turn will translate to social, political stability in a volatile part of the globe. Scarlet you make clear what greece would want. Likes to seemp himself as a dealmaker. What does greece specifically have you offered to the United States in your view . Im a professional diplomat decades have been dealing with negotiations, so diplomacy is another form of dealmaking. With this very uneasy new concept, as you describe it. I think that the foundations of the relationship between greece and the United States are very long and very deep. We have a longstanding extensive defensive corporation, which we are ready to further enhance. We have a formal alliance in the form of nato. We have a very strong greek diaspora here, which provides a human continuous bond between the nations, and also we have made some interesting proposals to the new administration. Since there is a business component in the new administration, i think they will understand very well our argument, which has been a longstanding argument, arguing for the element a strong element of growth in the package for the rescue of the Greek Economy and the package for the alleviation of our debt. , we have a system of structural reforms, which we are following. Of Economic Growth was not fair. I think that the new administration would understand the logic and would help us to present our case more clearly to representatives of the institutions with which we are negotiating. Scarlet we thank you for your time. Coming up, is the Federal Reserve turning over a new leaf . We will talk about that. This is bloomberg. Have breaking News Deutsche Bank confirming an earlier bloomberg report it is considering a fairly significant Capital Raise, 8 billion euros. Thats 10. 6 billion. Earlier in the year, shares were really getting hammered and have come that considerably since then. Lets take a look at what the stock is doing. It is still lower on the day. Again, Deutsche Bank confirmed it is considering an 8 billion euro Capital Raise. Scarlet we are continuing to monitor these headlines for you. We reported earlier that consideringk was getting rid of its retail business. That apparently is no longer on the table. Whatd you miss . The bond market made a dramatic shift this week. The chief Investment Officer for as anincome as well alternative fixed income strategist for jb Asset Management spoke with jonathan. Take a listen. The fed, obviously, is in a period of transition. Fedjanet yellen uberdovish we have lived with for a number of years has vacancies and will be a presumptive change with respect to who the chairman will be, so i dont know that we can make any longterm predictions about where the fed wants to take the rate environment. Certainly as the chatter you put together three minutes ago in the clip indicates, the belief has changed in the marketplace as it relates to the near term probability of a fed tightening, but i think the reality is the fed talk and awful lot and for years and years, we keep hearing the same thing out of them that they would love to raise rates when they reach their targets, and when they reach their targets, they redefine what those targets should be, so as it relates to what we are at is antly, certainly, there higher probability of the fed going at its next meeting in the middle of march. On the other hand, what you put forward a few moments ago also indicated what she said was singing. It does not mean march. It could mean may or june for could mean never. As i said, the fed has a very poor record of actually doing what they say they will do. I would say that not only does the fed have a very poor record of doing what they say they will, but in general, if we look at any investor who has tried to predict the directionality of rates, doing that is an absolutely failed prophecy. I find it comical that we are calling this move early. The fed has essentially been interpreting the same stream of constructive Economic Data is really, depending on where Market Sentiment has been, so its really hard to call this. Ove early yes, butatively early, is the fed behind the curve to some extent already . Way the fedhe defines it, even the way the fed defines it, they are probably somewhat behind the curve, but the way i think it should be properly defined, which is to say not just a focus on inflation and growth but rather a focus on the amount of leverage in the system, the amount of financial excess that has gone on during these years, i think you could make the case that they are years behind the curve as it relates to having normalized rates. Probably or perhaps going back to 2013. Joe you can catch bloomberg real yield every friday at 12 00 p. M. New york time. Time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. Aterpillar being sued by shareholder for alleged deception the day after federal officials raided its headquarters in illinois. The companies accused of making false and misleading statements and failing to disclose that it used foreign subsidiaries to avoid paying billions of dollars in taxes. Bloomberg news obtained copies electronics and files. Almost no comparable fund in the country has matched a return on pimco interest funds. Investor money is pouring in any pace unseen by any other actively managed stock or bond fund. And that is your Bloomberg Business flash. We just want to reiterate the breaking news that joe had broken earlier, which is that Deutsche Bank is considering a Capital Raise of 8 billion euros, about 8. 5 billion, slightly less than what our reporting indicated earlier, which was as much as 10. 6 billion. This is one of several strategic measures that might include an ipo of its Minority Stake in its Asset Management business. You can see that intraday trading prices at session lows. Trading bank shares down. This is bloomberg. Scarlet and all this week we have say in bonds sell off and rates rise. The 10year are ones we looked at carefully. The 10year here is the white line, and we started off the week at around 2. 3 where it closed on friday, but if you look at where it is that now, just below the 2. 5 , that is a 17 to 18basispoint move. That is a dramatic move. Thaturse, still far from 3 level we reached in early 2014. B blue line much more sensitive to the fed, now at its highest since june 2 thousand nine. A yellow vertical line shows when janet yellen began speaking, and it came back a little bit. For the week, a huge move and rates. Joe the fed was obviously the huge story this week. This white line is a chart depicting every time a story on the bloomberg mentioned the Federal Reserve. You can see it is really high all these years, then look here in the last couple of months. Zoom in. This white line plunged in the couple of months after the election. People still talk about the fed, but everyone else has moved on. The orange line is stories mentioning the term fiscal stimulus. Nothing happening on that front for a long time. At the end of 2016, it absolutely took off. This chart nicely demonstrates the changes in the theme. No one talks about the fed anymore. We still talk about the fed. Joe im exaggerating. Scarlet its true that in the global consciousness, the fed is no longer going to come in and save everything. The dow off once again by three points. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we are moments away from the closing bell. Whatd you miss . U. S. Stocks heading for the first two days slide. Fu. Scarlet rosenthal. Oe begin with our markets, and when we say a two day decline, it is not really a decline. 500 little changed. The nasdaq barely budging higher. Joe a quiet end to a busy week. Everyone had to digest the fed officials talking up the prospect of a rate hike on march 15. It began with John Williams of the San Francisco fed, then bill dudley, Robert Kaplan earlier, and today was the main event with janet yellen. Moved so much on the other ones, and she is so smooth. She never creates volatility. Scarlet we did see big gains and snap. It followed up yesterdays 44 20 percent much as today. It came back there. Article says Short Interest 1 billion reach within a week because of this rally. In terms of sectors under pressure today, retailers under pain. Costco retreating from record pressured on Gross Margins because of higher gas prices. The good news is the increase in membership fees. Reports thating on it is not in talks with hudson bay. Urban outfitters reclining for fourth time this week. Joe bond yields ending up unchanged for the day. A lot of action earlier in the week as we got hawkish comments from the fed. But even with janet yellen speaking, no change. We never talk about long term indian rates, but there was a huge rally in government l bonds. And finally, french 10 year yields. This is the chart to watch. Coming in on from middle of the that macoople assess ns odds of winning are on the rise. Interesting that the dollar continued to sink a lower. Scarlet the dollar giving back recent games. Weekd a big runup this during a fiveday advance as fed officials sounded hawkish notes. The mexican peso is the bestperforming currency versus the dollar after comments by wilbur ros