Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140905 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell September 5, 2014

Think that argument doesnt exist anymore. Its the old bad news is good news. We thought we heard the end of that, maybe we havent. Even so, markets near a record. August, too, consistently bad the last few years. Speaking of the jobs numbers, were they real . Some noted economists are openly saying they dont believe them. They feel things are much better out in the economy than that report suggests, so well try to separate fact from some fiction coming up. Also today, think a gop victory in the senate will be good for business . The conventional wisdom, but think again. At least thats what barney frank says. He wrote about it on cnbc. Com and hell be here to make his case, but hes not going to be alone. Larry will also be here and i have a feeling things might heat up, so stay tuned for what should be a fun debate. Well stand back and let them go at it for a little while. Yes, we will. You saw the dow open lower this morning on the disappointing jobs report, has come back in the afternoon session here. The nasdaq did the same thing. Its up 11 points right now at 4574. Were watching the s p 500, its very close, in fact, it is in record territory right now, just by a fraction, but right now its up six points at 2,000. Monica from seven capital, rob morgan from bbt associates. Here at the new york stock exchange. John rutledge, youre the man who taught me about economics those many years ago, youve been my mentor. So tell me, what did this jobs report tell you today about the economy . Well, the truth is, i think the economy is stronger rather than weaker, job reports a little bit of an anomaly, but the fact is, you cant make a lot of jobs if the Small Companies cant get loans. Small banks are not lending because theyve been killed by doddfrank, so slow job numbers help the feds stay loose, loose means a lot of liquidity for the market, and the markets up. So i think strong market is what you would expect and not very impressive growth numbers. Are you saying you dont believe the numbers this morning . You call it an anomaly. No, i dont think they are not believable in the sense that somebody made a mistake, i just think theres variation in the numbers and this ones weaker than we thought and the next one might be stronger. No news there. Monica, jim cramer says august is the month that he trusts the list. Diane schawn said if that number is the only number that were talking about then pigs should be flying. Then again, we did have a downward revision for june and july, too, 28,000. Is this part of an ongoing trend going forward, or do you think well have a new revision to august and forget we had this conversation . August is the least reliable month when it comes to the jobs numbers. I think between the first report and the third report, third revision, theres a 77,000 swing, historically, but all of that said, theres a lot of Economic Indicators that have not kept up with this idea that the economy is better. Gdp, for example, the last time that we had consistent job growth of 200,000 plus for, you know, a long stretch of time was the 90s. Back in the 90s we were seeing gdp of 6. 5 . First of 2014 gdp was 1. 14 . If things are so sunshine and butterflies, why is gdp so stagnant . And we talk a lot about consumption and people just arent out there spending, but at the same token theres another side of calculating gdp, which is the supply side. Theres a less number of people working, that coupled with low productivity also impacts gdp, so i think this idea that, you know, this is a blip and, you know, were on the right track and things are great, its not supported by gdp. Rick santelli, when we were asking the forecast today, you said 199,000. I gave them a hard time, too. But you were optimistic as it turned out. So what did you guys make of it on the floor and what did you think of the market response to it . First of all, do me a favor, please, bear with me, read mrs. Schawns comment again and what jim said. Jim said august is the month i trust the least. Diane said if thats the number were taking at face value, then pigs should fly. Im paraphrasing there. So they knew this was an august number, and where were their calls for the number . See, the problem with that argument is, if they understand that, why werent the estimates much lower . All the estimates i saw were much larger than mine. I rest my case there. As far as the market, actually, the bond market tends to be looking at this number like it might be revised. Here we are again, bill, 246. If we start to settle this market above 245 and its murphys law, im out next week. Thats when the selloffs going to hit. Settling for a weekly close above 245, a lot of technicians will be turning over to the sell side. Rick, do you think any part of that move to the upside came from the president speaking . Because when we were only dealing with the jobs number early on in the day, the market was down. Then when we heard a stronger tone from the president about new sanctions and the fact there was a strategy to deal with isis, it did seem like people started buying again after that speech ended. Well, you know, it was dark last night and its light now. I dont know who made that happen, okay, and as far as the president s stand on isis or isil, tell me what it is and tell me which person in government to listen to. I really cant answer that. Phil, what do you make of this and are you putting money to work now, are you waiting . This is traditionally the worst month of the year for the market. We know what spooks are out there in october for wall street, so what are you doing with money right now . Honestly, putting money to work. Historically its a rough month, but only going into september has been a down year. This hasnt been, its been an up year, so its really not a bad month. Thats number one. Number two, i dont understand the negativity, i dont. There are so many positive things. Weve got a Massive Energy renaissance, more manufacturing jobs than any time in the last 30 years. We have a consumer thats a healthy balance sheet. Look at the consumer today, theyve got significantly, almost a trillion dollars less in debt than a handful of years ago, put those together, solid third quarter, earnings doubled what we expected. I dont understand how you cant be bullish in stocks here. Not that you shouldnt be diversified, absolutely, you dont want to be 100 in, but so many positive numbers on the consumer, the growth of our economy, and the jobs number, one quick fact, every single job that was open, seven people were looking for that job. Today for every single job open theres two. Thats significant, that matters. At the end of the day, more people at work, more contributors. And 152 Million People that arent in the labor force. People not looking right now, theyve given up. Thats a big part of that, as well, too. Demographics in there, remember the baby boomers leaving the workforce. What are we doing about it . Low Interest Rates, fixing that demographic issue, Alan Greenspan told us about 20 years ago was coming . Listen, at the end of the day, we have a country thats changing. Youve got 10,000 people retiring every single day. Thats going to have an impact on the participation rate. Im sure the fed programs going to alter that, right, thats why were riding this horse. You want to spend like your economy, you have an economy starting to grow again. Fed cant make jobs. They are stimulating big balance sheets, big companies. 7 out of 10 americans think were in a recession, what does that mean . Why the number of people taking government pediments going down . I dont know what youre reading. Its not what im reading. Absolutely, going down. Only the benefits that are cut like jobless claim benefits, yeah, they were extended. They were called emergency benefits. Crisis policies. With all these numbers, down to 12 and the market keeps going up. As long as theres 3 trillion of undeployed bank reserves, the big banks are going to put them to work and thats going to make the economy grow some, not a lot, because the little banks are not letting it. Youve been a very patient guy. Give us the bottom line here. Are you like phil, putting money to work even at these lofty levels here . Bill, i am like phil, i am putting money to work and i do like stocks here, but im worried going into next year for a couple of reasons. Number one, the fed will start raising rates and eventually push us into some form of slowdown or recession. Im worried about that. Number two, the Retail Investor is going to play out, of course, thats usually a contrarian indicator. I am concerned going into next year, but im like phil right now, no reason not to be bullish for at least until the end of the year, i would think. All right. We have to go at this point. Thank you, though, for a lively conversation, as always, on this friday edition of closing bell exchange. Before we go to commercial here, though, we have some sad news, a person, familiar face and voice to cnbc viewers, was often with us on the closing bell exchange, matt mccormick, a longtime partner and Portfolio Manager at ball and gagner, im sure you recognize him, tragically passed away yesterday of a heart attack. He was only 44 years old. Devastating. Out for his morning run, his normal routine, and he fell ill and died tragically of a heart attack. Just cant believe it for a lot of reasons, and we send our greatest sympathies to his wife susan, two children aged 11 and 13, just a sad, sad story for the Mccormick Family and the family here at cnbc. Well be back with more closing bell after this. Cute little guy, huh . This guy could take down your entire company. Stay with me. On thursday a hamster video goes online. On friday it goes viral a network choking phenomenon. Why do you care . Hes on the same cloud as your business. The more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. Do you want to share your cloud with a hamster . Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. So what were looking for is a way to plus our Accounting Firms mobile plan. And minus our expenses. Perfect timing. Were offering our bestever pricing on mobile plans for business. Run the numbers on that. Well, unlimited talk and text, and ten gigs of data for the five of you would be. Oneseventyfive a month. Good calculating kyle. Good job kyle. You just made partner. Our bestever pricing on mobile share value plans for business. Now with a 100 bill credit for every business line you add. One of our next guests has issued a warning to wall street and its a contrarian way of thinking. In a piece thats been burning up cnbc. Com this week, barney frank, former House Democrat and mastermind behind financial reform says a republican win in upcoming Congressional Elections might not at all be a win for business. As would be assumed, you would think. Barney frank joins us now, along with our buddy larry kudlow, who i assume is on the opposite of that there. In brief terms, youre saying republicans assume if they get a majority not only in the house, but the senate for midterm elections, there might be a rollback of doddfrank and other things that go on. You disagree, why . Well, i was just reading the New York Times yesterday, a quote from the new majority whip, mr. Scalise, asked who wall street would be talking to in the new republican leadership, he said i dont know. I talked to wall street, its very important. I had disagreements with the financial community, but its important for them to be able to talk and have information. First of all, if the republicans controlled both houses, there would be no reform of immigration and maybe a cutback on flexibility weve seen. Terrorism risk insurance, important if you build anything in the big cities. The republicans are against it. I believe the Export Import Bank is a very important selfdefense for american jobs and companies against foreigners. Housing finance. The fannie mae, freddie mac, i helped abolish that, at least put them in conservativeship, but do you have any way by which people thinking of extending a 30year fixed Rate Mortgage can purchase an Interest Rate hedge somewhere with government framework . Not like currently a share holder one. The republicans nominating the house say, no, thats why theres no legislation on that. Then the most important is, the republicans talking about passing legislation to have the gao audit the open Market Committee and federal reserve, terribly politicizing that, and finally when i was chairman, we had to stave off an effort by some of the republicans to get the International Monetary fund not to participate with the rest of detroit to try to help europe. I think theres an absolutism there that goes against many of what i know business wants specifically. Larry kudlow, do you think that if we did not have a republican majority in both houses, that the issues that mr. Frank just brought up, we would have some progress there . Well, i dont know. Chairman frank is a good man, sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree. I just want to say, one thing a republican majority will do is immediately launch Corporate Tax reform. They will want to slash the Corporate Tax rate and pay for it by getting rid of loopholes and enhancing Economic Growth and jobs. Thats something the chamber of commerce wants and thats something thats high on the gop priority list. Mr. Frank mentioned a whole lot of things here. Let me just say a couple quickly. On immigration, republicans do want a compromise. It must include, however, Border Security first and then well have legalization, and then well have worker permits, and then well have visas. On fannie and freddie, im so disappointed in my friend barney frank. You were on the kudlow report in 2010. You told me that day, i believe late summer, early fall, that you wanted to abolish fannie and freddie over a period of years. You said that, barney, you and i totally agree, you said the same thing the next day. But fannie and freddie is now being expanded by the Democratic Administration and i think larry, heres the problem, larry, i was planning to do that with legislation in 2011. The republicans in control never touched fannie and freddie. They got fannie and freddie alone for 12 years when they controlled congress and only when i was chairman we worked to put restraints on them. And since then the republicans of the house have done nothing. Yes, i think there should be some replacement. The other thing i want to say is this, i agree about Corporate Tax reform, but im afraid that isnt true. When dave camp tried to talk about getting rid of loopholes, he couldnt get them. Loopholes are hated in principle and loved in the pacific, and if the Business Community thinks they can get a republican in congress thats going to get rid of loopholes to cut the rate, i wish, but there is no evidence that the Political Support is there to take the tough positions on the loopholes. I think, look, dave camp did the lords work, he created a project, some people agreed, some people disagreed. Paul ryans going to take over the ways and means committee, orrin hatch is going to take over the Senate Finance committee, and youll see major tax reform. I know they are going after the corporate code. Thats going to be number one. If dave camp was doing the lords work, then the devil had a lot of votes in the republican caucus. Thats a tough sell, i agree, but i think its a lot of momentum. The other thing i want to say to you is, im so disappointed, barney, you, of all people, should oppose corporate welfare. I dont understand why the Democratic Party has hopped in bed with the xm bank, which is making loans that we dont need. Let me just finish. They are making loans to saudi arabia, russia, china, venezuela, what is that all about . Yes, to buy because we have to do it in selfdefense. Years ago, representing massachusetts, they were bidding on a project in brazil to help with deforestation, using some of the military techniques. They had the best technology, they were being outbid by subsidies from European Countries through their export import. And i got the Export Import Bank to neutralize that, not give us an advantage. I wish we had no such export subsidy anywhere in the world, but this is a matter of unilateral disarmament. I must say, i have a class to teach at 4 00 and i have to leave. I was going to say, you said 3 20 and we were wondering if you were going to hold to that. We do appreciate your time, barney, as always, thank you, and we appreciate the oped. Next time you can have me and larry on for as long as the audience will listen. Mr. Chairman, its my great pleasure, my great pleasure. Are you a tough reader . I dont know, its my first class. Well, good luck. See you later. Thanks, guys, see you later, larry. Appreciate it very much. Guys got to teach a class. 4 00 on a friday . Thats a legitimate excuse. I would love to know which students are showing up for that class. If its a class taught by barney frank, im there, im there. On we go, tragic story, small plane that had been flying unresponsive for hours through the United States, into the caribbean, has now crashed in jamaica. Aman jabers has the very latest for us on this story. Aman . Bill, heres what we know as of now, the faa is confirming the small turbo prop aircraft carrying Real Estate Developer larry glazer and his wife, jane, has crashed in the ocean about 14 miles off the coast of jamaica. We are told that search and rescue teams are on the premise at this time and the u. S. Coas

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