Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140909 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell September 9, 2014

Company he founded nearly 50 years ago, coming up with sallie kr krawcheck. Stay tuned for these exclusive interviews next hour. Plus, is it ever okay to borrow against your 401 k . A top money manager says no, never. Just dont do it. Its explained in a piece burning up cnbc. Com today and the author will join us to make his case. Before all of that, lets look at where markets are trading. Dow off by about 75 points today. Second straight day here with the red arrows. S p off 9 to 9. 92. So much seems to hang on the fate of the apple watch. They were up the best part of 3 and then falling back as the market did. Joining us, 8 gain for the s p so far this year. Where do you think well trade from here . I think in the short run probably tread water and be in a range between 1920 and 2000 on the s p. Earnings coming in to solidify for next year. We have 130 for next year. A 16 month to that, theres fits and starts for people the use the cash. Lets just bottom line what youre saying there. You believe, correct me if im wrong, well trade at this level or below and make a 5 gain next year . Yes. People have an opportunity to make more than that. Thats the feeling. Momentum is in the other direction, at least for strategists on the street. We have had people who are still s p targets for a year 1800. Deutsch bank up to at least 2000. Todd, you know, tell us where you see fair value here. Within u. S. Equities, a couple things to do. We see stronger values in strong cap. If you look at valuations, theyre rich and liquidity is not great despite the liquidity in the world. It is not great. Youve seen the russell selloff pretty quickly a number of times this year and within the u. S. , Tax Management strategy makes a lot of sense. Wed much rather have a low fee way to play it and pick up 8 a year by harvesting the tax losses. Diane, last time you were on and id love to know the response there was. You were making the point back to the fundamentals for the economy things looking up for the middle and lower part of the economy sitting this out. What was the response to those comments to the debate we were having and do you see signs throughout that those are moving in the right direction . We are seeing some of the evidence becoming Even Stronger so if we look at the median income, you know, the median income, certainly has been steady. In some cases falling. But we also have three data point that is are really important to focus in on. Household values rising pretty dramatically. The highest we have had since the recession. The second thing thats really important is Consumer Confidence. People are finally feeling safe in their jobs. Right . Albeit part time jobs seeing a tremendous growth and then the third thing thats really finally picking up is a lot of debt, a lot of lending on the part of banks. In fact, 9. 5 billion in revolving credit loans this month alone, the data that just came out, so whats key here is people are feeling confident enough finally to dip into household equity they may have and go back on what well call the traditional american spending spree. Are you sure . Are you sure, diane . I see here that you believe that that could go through to retail sales and the sector up only 2 or 3 so far this year. So the Market Action doesnt reflect your optimism. Yeah. Because the market, this data is new data. Right . I think one of the thing that iss really important is Consumer Discretionary has suffered throughout most of this year, waiting for consumers to have that confidence back. And waiting for the banks to finally be willing to lend. We now have banks lending and people borrowing and this is the time that Consumer Discretionary likely do very well. I wouldnt be surprised if retail Sales Numbers come out very strong next month. Keep an eye on it. Bringing susan now into the conversation from fbb partners. Susan, asking you about the equity action today against the backdrop just laid out. Stocks under pressure for the second day running. Do you think its from the talk of hawkish behavior relative to Public Perception and something to do with whether mario draghi in europe has the backing of france and germany to go ahead with the stimulus efforts . I think what ill call the big blue egg is fragile and a lot of problems both in europe and globally, that give me pause. You know, our Interest Rates arent high but theyre dramatically higher than the Interest Rates in europe so and some senses were supporting them. Europes not having a recovery. Scotlands very scary. Scotland goes, does northern italy go . Does Northern Spain go . I think we have a tremendous number of systemic problem that is are going to keep this market relatively flat for the rest of the year. We dont think were overvalued, though. Remarkable thing, though, susan, thats not the story so far, is it . S p sits very close to a record up almost 8 for the year. And whenever we have the market fall for geo Political Risks immediately you gate vshaped rebound. People had nowhere else to go. I mean, when i worked in the Advertising Industry and someone gave an Advertising Agency a budget of money, they had to send it or they couldnt earn money. The same thing is true of money managers. Only way to make money is to be invested. And theres very few places they can be invested in the United States is one of them. Forgive me. But therefore, if im an investor understanding both sides of what youre saying, dont i basically sit in the market . Why should i take geo Political Risk to buy behind me . Simon, theres one reason. The ghost of 2008. The pain, the pain of losses twice as great as the pleasure from gain, yeah. Ill tell you if you start to get a selloff or start to have some winds of trouble, earnings, a lot of people may be quick to pull the trigger. I think well say in this range and i dont think its a one decision market right now. People should keep some cash around for a rainy day. You know most of the market. Go ahead, susan. We are down 90 points at the session lows and off 101 today and definitely pressure over here across the board. Well, i think, number one, that globally it really looks like we are going into more trouble rather than less. Number two, i dont think the market is confident but i think it does need to stay invested. Most of the money thats invested is institutional money. Us little cockroaches on the sidelines, run out get a little bite and run back again. Its true. We know that ownership of the cockroaches is lower than it used to be. Speak for yourself. Just wanted to ask a question about the extent to which, you know, we should look at some of the pressure here as a result of good news, in other words, is this because in the u. S. We have got some people out there talking about higher Interest Rates or is it because its the 10year moving higher, in other words, opposed to old riskoff moves and stocks hammered and the 10year lower and Everything Else was selling off . 10year is moving higher paying nothing in europe. And europe has to be invested. And the only place they can go is to the 10year. I would move that would move the 10year lower, people move, you know, people in europe trying to stay invested in the u. S. Treasuries. It is good news is bad news type thing. You had a very, very strong number last year and i would have thought spooked the market more and seeing this type of selloff. You have the bls number on friday. Thats subject to revisions and i think the market is pricing that in a little bit to get strong Economic News and the fed moving sooner than expected. Just to that point and to the Point Richard of earlier, todd, you have the strong gain of the dollar and ties in. The dollar index is up 5 over the last 2 months. Youre telling people that they should go into the big caps. Isnt that dollar move, if it continues, a real problem for Profit Growth once youve bought it back into the country and translated it into the greenback . Im not as concerned about this. Really . I think cap x is picking up in the u. S. And also in the United States, theyre performing very well and very well in the face of a strong dollar and theres a ton of money out of the ecb, bank of japan. The investors think the u. S. Is the best place on earth. You are making a great point. A quick show of hands, whos buying the apple watch . Yeah, no, not happening. I will. Future buying it for me. The watch. Perhaps a gender thing going on here. Im out of apple. Well take it as some sort of cosmic tell. Thank you. We have 15 minutes to go with the market going to a triple digit loss and the s p off 13. The nasdaq, simon, off 40 as apple and well mention and discuss coming up. Also Steve Liesman is hearing rumbles the fed may alter the language on Interest Rates at next weeks closely watched Monetary Policy. Wait until you hear what those changes are and how it could affect your money. Apple finally unveiling the bigg bigger iphone. The pros will weigh if they overpromised and underdelivered or a home run in the making. Why you may want to think twice of borrowing against your 401 k . One top money man says you should never, ever do it. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Cut those losses throughout, however, heading into now the last 45 minutes of trade, you can see that were tracking lower. Lets get over to dom chu for more of the movers. Talk about some of the name that is arent perhaps apple here. Annies moving higher on new that is General Mills will buy it for 820 million or 46 a share. Thats a 31 premium over the Closing Price on monday. Both natural food stocks boulder brands and whitewave foods and hain celestial moving higher on that news. Tough day for mcdonalds. Hitting a 52week low after reporting weaker than expected drops in august global sales as problems continued with this chinese supply issues. Also mobile eye gaining ground. The maker of auto Collision Avoidance techniques landing with toyota. Kimberly ross is leaving for same post as oil Services Provider and cutting the ratding for the stock avon to a neutral ratding. Back over to you. Dom, thank you. You probably be aware that the Federal Reserve is holding a twoday meeting next week and rumbling that the team could alter the language on Interest Rate. Steve liesman joins us now with the power of the words in the story. Steve . Good intro there, kelly. Odds are rising to make an important change to the policy statement, perhaps as soon as the meeting next week, debating to drop a key phrase of a considerable time after qe inen until the rate hike. They were thinking six months. In october and many think the first rate hike in the middle of next year but recently officials from both sides of the aisle, doves and hawks, said that the decision to raise rates based on data and not dates and jp morgan reacting to this writes that the desire to get away from datebased guidance appeals to both hawks and doves. We view the chance of such a change next week as 5050. Some analysts not going that far but raised the odds. Our base case is that considerable time survive september and we view this as a much closer call than a week ago and thinks that the change is more likely to come in october or november. That could spook markets and the fed could try to convince people that the change is only to add flexibility and introduce as much uncertainty to the rate outlook as exists in their own minds. Theres definitely going to be more volatility of economic reports if the change is made and the data more data than date dependent and you can read more on cnbc. Com. Kelly . Thank you. Stay with us. Lets bring in jeff cox. With the dow off 103, how concerned would the market be . We have seen an investor surveys over and over that more than ukraine, more than the middle east and the global problems we have, investors fear the fed more than anything especially a mistake in policy. I wrote today about analysis of pimco and basically breaks the recovery such as this down into two parts and first part is fed dleliberately raise it is asset and bond prices for the socalled wealth affect. The second part is when they have to start normalizing policy and hopefully that wealth effect trickles down into the overall economy. The problem here comes for investors in that when that part comes, according to the pimco thesis, thats when returns start to slow and we get back to this sort of new neutral type of rates. So i do think that from the markets perspective, theyre very justified and fearing what comes next for the fed. Look, you know, i was one of the people out there who said, gee, surprise, surprise, the fed will have to backtrack on their lack wage and change their time frame and according to they want to do things opposed to how the markets going to dictate to do things. Interesting. Steve, lets come back to this Research Published yesterday and the San Francisco fed which actually suggested that fed members expect the higher trajectory than investors and whether they feel they need to in some senses to kick the bond market in particular, to kick it into action and say, youre being way too dovish from where we stand and stop a market repositioning. I know you have been busy and didnt read my story but thats what it says. Im sorry. Every show, simon, but this is a reason that lou crandall thinks might be a reason to remove the language next week. The market and now looking for only 75 basis points of a fed funds rate at the end of 2015, versus a fed where the average funds rate forecast now among the 17 fed members is 1. 2 or 1. 2 or 120 basis points. That difference is a reason why as you say steve, let me jump in for a second. Lets ask about yellen versus the rest. This is the point of charles last meeting saying we said in prior statements that when Economic Conditions were met along the lines of right now, the fed funds rate would be higher and its not. A, the outlook is still evolving. B, a lot of this depends does it not on the dovish bias that most people still maintain. It does. Kelly, lets talk about what policy is. Under bernanke, there was a policy of Forward Guidance which was trying to get the market to believe that rates would not rise for a specific time. It was building on that research that came out in jackson hole. We appear to be moving and this is the key here from a Forward Guidance regime to a data dependent regime where it depends on what the data says rather than a promise. The reason they went to a Forward Guidance regime is because they were at the zero bound and out of tricks and pulled another thing out of their hat. It is all very well getting transparent on your way into easing and cant be as transparent coming out of it and having to tighten because it has the opposite effect on the markets. Lets turn it back down to the investor perspective. Theyre hinging on the other word and the fed is basing the projections on a scenario that it really has no idea how it plays out because they have never been there before. We have seen in the past how unliable fed forecasts are and steve says throwing away nonsense about going for dates and like, oh, when we turn the calendar page, thats suddenly going to change things. The important thing is going to be the data and the fed doesnt know what it will be and terrible. Thats why theyre doing this. We have to go. But fair to say, steve, to recap or to sort of sum this up that both the hawks and the doves at the fed would like to see us move toward data dependent language . Different reasons. One wants hawks want faster rate hikes and the doves for policy here. And so we get the excitement of a statement change. Oh you. Try to contain yourself. Try to contain yourself. And thank you, jeff cox. Appreciate it. Alan greenspan speaking with us exclusively tomorrow and asking him all about this, of course. Be sure to tune in. One of the first, simon, i think to issue a fed statement. And that was only in like 96. How times have changed. You havent. You still love it. Okay. A look at where we are in the markets at the moment. Continuing the lose ground here down 113 on the dow. More on whats causing us to fall ahead on the show. Coming up, big doings out in apple land today and u2 playing a concert. Part of the announcement. We have the breakdown of everything on the new e iphones to the watch and the pros weigh in on whether apple over or under developed on the unveiling. Aflac and a gentle wavelike motion. Aahhh ahhhhhh. Liberate your spine, ahhhahhhhhh aflac and reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. Yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. Ahh four days . Yep. Find out how fast aflac can pay you, at aflac. Com. Ok, if youre up there, i coulsmart sarah. Elp. Seeking guidance. Just like with your investments. That sets you apart. It does . It does. Youre type e. And seeking another perspective is what type e s do. Oh, and your next handhold. Is there. You dont have to go it alone. E trade gives you the support and guidance to make informed decisions. Are you type e . Weighing on the session all day today and kept into reasonably positive territory or losses with apple, apple lost

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