Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150507 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell May 7, 2015

The changing of the guard alibaba. The company having its best day since the company went public but will new blood help turn the stock around for the long term. Well ask that question. New developments you just heard in mcdonalds plan to turn itself around. Yes, kale is part of the idea. The new ham burglar. Even james franco has been weighing in on the role mcdonalds played in his early career in life. Cant wait to learn more about that. We are watching the markets though with just an hour going into the close. Stocks are near session highs. They opened in negative territory this morning despite the fact that jobless claims came in near a 15year low. You are looking at the dow up by 109 points. S p up by 10 points. Good for. 5 prp the . Interest rates and the european moves have been a big story. Oil down hard today, pushing transports higher. Lets get to our Closing Bell Exchange today. David kudlow from Mainstay Capital Management back with us, cnbc contributor Heather Hughes from sun america funds, dion martin from moneymorning. Com. And Rick Santelli from chicago as with el. David, you have an interesting prediction prediction. I think in the 10year number comes in a lot stronger than expected we could see the 10year thats been running up for several days now spike even higher. Maybe as high as 2. 5 . But i think that the moment tum weve had in the 10year even with the strong jobs numbers will just be temporary and the 10year is going to pull back from here. There is a point where we will go to 3 yield on the 10year treasury but we dont think were headed there now even with all the momentum behind it now. There is sovereign debt in europe thats still going to be very competitive with the 10year. Were thinking about the jobs number. Thats going to be in focus tomorrow. It is all anyone can really talk about going into the close today. Expectation is roughly 230,000 jobs but weve also been hearing for weeks the First Quarter was a blip that there will be a Second Quarter read. April is the first month of that. What happens if we get one thats far stronger than expected . Well i think weve really gone into a new cycle where everything of course is figuring out how it is going to affect the fed rate hike thats to come at some point in the future. Weve sort of hit a goldilocks market where everybody doesnt want news thats too good or that it be too hot encourage the fed, they dont want thats too bad that would bring the markets down on its own. So theres sort of a sweet spot in the middle. If we get a huge jump as david said, i think it is going to become a negative on the markets and theyre going to be worried more about the rate hike than what it says about the economy itself. Rick what do you think . Is it possible to get 2 1 2 . What is the market telling us right now about their expectations with the feds when you consider whats been going on that runup in yields recently, the stock market that had been suffering until today. Whats going on here . Well first of all, to the question about where rates could go, i think we could have a very asymmetric employment report response in Interest Rates. Meaning if we get a strong number we could hit 2. 50s, 2. 60s. The issue is we dont know. We could see an october 15 type move on a strong report only to settle down the way it did between 5 00 in the morning before we came in where yields were 2. 31 here. 70something basis points in bunds, only 20 come back and go very sideways. I think in terms of where were at, i think we all need to take a step back. The dow and s p are either little bit below or a little above 1 with regard to where they settled last year. 10year note yields are sitting exactly where they settled last year. Yes, we have volatility. We have uncertainty. We dont have true price discovery. But in the end for the first four months of 2015 we really havent gone anywhere but the path of Interest Rates on how they got back down has many traders nervous. Even if we get a 200,000 number or prirnt is that some fed members are saying that that i be good enough to raise rates a quarter point in september rather than waiting until next year. So it is just debatable about whats good or bad. Of course we are still looking at the Participation Rate and the wage growth. Weve had a slight uptick in wage growth which is a positive sign but would 200,000 a month be enough for the Federal Reserve and the markets to have concern again of the fed raising rates. I personally think rates have been too low for a long time. Real issue is the time they picked to normalize was the absolute worst time as yields went negative in europe and all the volatility. But to answer your question i think the fed could play this any way they want. They could put the goal post anywhere they want. One thing im certain, 6 1 2 years after the crisis no matter how many jobs we get tomorrow, i dont think rates should be at zero. Thats something the fed is dealing with. We heard from fed chair janet yellen yesterday. She seems to think that equities are generally getting fairly rich. I just wonder when when we think about where the markets could go from here rates are basically where they were a year ago, s p, yearend targets for most of the strategists on the street at the high ends theyre 4 or so from where we are right now. It does seem like were going up, were going down but were still in a pretty tight range. I think we stay in that trading range. I think this will be one of the weakest years for the s p 500 index in this sevenyear bull market. Probably only up 4 or 5 at the end of the year. Maybe weaker than that. We just have were running up against valuation issues. Were in an earnings trough now. Fed rate hike. Opportunities abroad that are baltimore attractive. So i dont think there is a lot of up side for the s p 500. I think thats why investors need to look beyond the s p 500 for opportunity. The indexers are just not going to do well this year. All right. D. R. , the other feature today we mentioned earlier the price of oil down 3 plus today. We had some other guys yesterday telling us that maybe oil had hit its peak for a while here when it got above 62 on wti. What are you seeing there and what impact do you think that has on other markets as well . Well i think those guys will probably and gals that may have you that input, bill were probably read region my notes because thats exactly where i am. I think that 62 plus that we got we got a port closing in labor ya that got everyone temporarily shook up. But were still despite rig counts dropping precipitously here in north america. The production is still remaining high. Its finally leveled off for just a week or two of a climbing every week for about five months. So i think that the new normal of these Lower Oil Prices is going to continue to be a little bit of a drag as we dont see the employment coming back exactly where we want. And like david just said wed been in a trading range. And since the first week of february, the s p has been in an 85point box. Cant get above it cant get below it. But we are stuck at the top of the charts so we have to remember that. Not get too bearish just yet. But we are up 44 since the march low. In terms of a range, were up over 65 and we were at 44 just two months ago in the blink of an eye. So that is quite an uptick as far as short oil and long dollar trend. Has that reversed thats not true today. But that is a big uptick in oil. It went down fast and its come back fast. Thats for sure. Yes. Irrational to the up side as well. We got to go d. R. We got some other news breaking. It is one of those kinds of days. Thank you all for your thoughts on todays market action. Appreciate it. We want to get to the story on yelp. Shares soaring on that report. The Consumer Review website may be exploring a sale right now. It was a wild scene when that story broke just a couple hours ago. From yelps post at the nyse when that story came out, bob pisani is actually there now with the details. What was a pretty wild day of trading for that stock, bob . Reporter it was just a couple of hours ago. Poor mike. s been typing his finger off the last couple of hours. This is the designated market maker. Michael here were up 26 but thats not the real interesting thing. This is the volume. 26 million shares. Yelp would normally do 3 million shares a day. Were eight times that and it is only 3 00 in the afbl. A wild day of trading. I covered the ipo for this company right here a couple years ago. Early 2012. It went public at 15. Then it rocketed to 100 oh about a year ago. It was 101 but from there slowly to the down sides. They had a big miss two weeks ago on their earnings. Their guidance wasnt very good. They have three basic problems right now. One, the ad biz is continuing to slow down. They have lots of competition. Number two. And number three, it is expensive. Do the maths on the earnings. It is 90 times current earnings. Im not even talking about the future, next years earnings. Thats a major company. Investors tend to start looking for companies that are doing a little bit better and certainly got a better pe profile. Right now were going on up 26 on yelp. Well see how it ends. Thank you. So the question then becomes who would be interested in buying yelp at this point . Josh liptons been talking to analysts. He joins us now with some ideas there. Well bill so if these reports are true and yelp is exploring a sale then you are right. There are two immediate questions, bill. Why would yelp be an attractive target, and who would be interested in buying this company . Financial analysts who cover yelp say it is an attractive target for a company that wants a piece of the local u. S. Ad market. Remember thats what drives 97 of yelps business. As of last quarter, about 90,000 Small Businesses were paying yelp an average of 350 per month to advertise on the site. This is a company thats still growing fast. Yes, revenue did miss analysts forecasts last quarter, but remember, net revenue still did jump 55 . Even with todays move that stock is still in the red this year and thats because the growth in the number of local businesses paying yelp has slowed. So in q1 last year it was growing at 65 . Q1 of this year its 35 . Lps also the International Side of the business is still a very small part of the overall business. The growth racete overseas has disappointed the street. Still the local ad market is Strong Enough that yelp could find a number of potential buyers. Google did make an offer for yelp preipo for about 500 million. It was an offer yelp rejected. Complicating that bid though remember there is bad blood between yelp and google. Yelp says google favored its own listings in search. Other suitors scully mentioned, amazon microsoft, maybe cully told me he puts the odds of a yelp sale within the next four months at 56 . Thanks josh. 45 minutes to go before the closing bell. Still all major averages steadily in the green after falling the last two gaze days. Todays trade has wiped out all of that negative activity. Among the gainers today, alibaba shares soaring after that surprising ceo shakeup and a big jump in revenue during its earnings call. Is it time to get back on the baba bandwagon . Well follow that story next. 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After two big down days, we have a rally day on wall street with the dow up 100 points. Thats just off the high of the session. The s ps up nine. Nasdaqs up 29 points. Thats the best gainer percentage wise. Oils been down sharply. Transports have been strong as a result of that as we all await the jobs report tomorrow. Oh yes. One of the big movers of course today, alibaba, the company reportings earnings this morning and the stock rising, up nearly 8 as the chinese ecommerce giant named daniel jong its new ceo. Cnbc caught up with him earlier today. He talked about the companys future in the important mobile space. Today more and more consumers in china use mobile to do Online Shopping so on the other hand more and more merchant start to spend marketing dollar on the mobile side. So based on this we believe the taper on the mobile side will continue to increase and we are confident that they can approach that on pc and even higher. Lets talk about alibaba getting reaction now from the cbo of ansins worth investment strategy. What do you make of the timing and the reason behind the change of ceos there at alibaba . Bill, thats a great question. I think it certainly caught a lot of people off guard. Is it a good or bad move . I think it is a smart move to get new leadership at the top. It does raise some flags. It is only two years after they did recently name the ceo previously. So is it a trend . Will we see new senior managers every few years . I dont think so. I do think there is a proven track record. I do think that jack ma wanted to shake things up. Timing yes, a little suspicion but again they delivered a really good result and it is time to do that and deliver a transition change. The Company Still has two key men the a the top. Thats jack ma the founder. A lot of people make the distinction between the title of ceo in china and how it is maybe less strong than it is here in the u. S. What distinction would you make about that . I think thats a great point. I look at this a little bit differently. It is a little bit like Vladimir Putin putting in somebody different as the president in russia . Who really cares because we all know who is still running the company. I look at mr. Zhang just ensuring the cost controls are in place as growth starts to deflate a bit in the upcoming quarter. Is mobile as important for alibaba in china as it is for so Many Companies here in the United States as they rush to that area where so many u. S. Consumers are . I would say it is more important. China is a mobilefirst market. We came out with a new piece of intelligence that showed 98 of all highend shoppers are on smartphone devicing and buying increasingly on their iphones and samsung devices. The challenge is it is a lot more challenging to modify with the same Revenue Growth. We had see 352 Revenue Growth on mobile. Monetization rate might not be as high but does that give you a promise about holding alibaba shares for the long term. The key is absolutely mobile. I agree wholeheartedly with those previous comments. I think in the future we need to see that monetization rate improve. I think it will but in terms of where we are right now, the percentage of revenue, it is a mobile market. It is going to be driven by mobile. If you look at what happened in the rural u. S. In the 50s and 60s that will never happen in china. Meaning walmart built out all these Super Centers and you are brick and mortar across the country in the u. S. In china youll have a lot more investment from the tier 3, tier 5 cities. Alibaba is the largest platform. J. D. Com will also do very well. Mobile monetizeation should very much improve. We know you hold those stocks. How do you play that . Im a big bull on china ecommerce. Were in such early stages of the whole growth cycle and i think its not a zero sum game. Theyre both going to be winners. If you look at the two of them theyre very different although there are some similarities. J jd. Com does have more fulfillment centers. Alibaba, you have a wild card on some really interesting growth aspects. If you look at the transportation, they do have the share of an uber competitor. That could be very significant, too. Very different but i dont think it is a zero sum game. I think they both win. We will see. Good to see you both. Thank you for joining us today. Heading towards the closing with 40 minutes left in the trading session. The dow is up 90 points. S p up eight. The nasdaq up 26. Financials and tech some of the best performers today. Hubspot reported its Third Straight Company Revenue jump since the stock went public you will 18 . Whats driving this growth in the ceo is here exclusively to talk about that next. Im sure he lass a big smile on his face. Mcdonalds new turnaround plan apparently lets see. Its got kale the new ham burglar and actor james franco as the fast food giant been standing too long over the grill . We have the story on that coming up on closing bell. 40 of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. You had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. Those things had to change. We wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. You can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesnt happen. At the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the Public Lighting Authority had a hard time of finding a bank. Citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. Citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. Its a brighter day in detroit. People can see better when theyre out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. And folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40 of the lights were out, but theyre not out for long. Theyre coming back. Welcome back to the closing bell. Markets have been paring their gains as we head into the close. Dow is up by about 86 points or. 5 . Still though q

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