American express reports earnings after the bell, but critics say perks are not what they used to be and it is weighing on the dao component. We have a debate on it. How much the credit card craze is happening amongst millennials. Intense, yes. Thats ahead. We begin with ibms fall after reporting its 20th consecutive quarter of year on year revenue decline. The company cfo discussed that when we spoke to him after those results. That 20 quarter headline is probably not the framing that were thinking about. Were thinking about how do we continue to move the business and our clients to get to growth. Now, the portfolio, the portfolio will grow. I am confident that the ibm company will grow again, but it is taking you know, were taking time. Our baub pisani over by the trading post with more. It is weighing on the market today, bob . Great. Good to see you. Theres a new risk to the market and thats earnings risk. We havent had it before. Let me show you ibm. They normally do four million shares a day. Look at that, 16 million shares, more times more than normal, down 8 , the whole reason the dao is down. The important thing is you have several issue. Stocks are expensive, risk to the down side. First problem was the revenue miss ibm had. The market is merciless about that. Theres a second reason theres a problem out there. Ibm along with many stocks had a huge runnup postelection. It went from about 154 on november 8 or 9 to about 180 in middecember, a move up of about 17 . It has slowly been coming down in the last is efrl weeks here. Three things are going on. Number one, you combine a high priced stock or stock moving up rather aggressively in the last few months with a big revenue miss with the idea stocks are expensive in general, and combine it with the trump agenda, the tax cut can issue kind of fading away as an influence on the market. You put those three or four things together and you get sell. By the way, this illustrates the real problems with the Dow Jones Industrial average. Price weighted index puts a lot of pressure. S p 500 is not having those moves today. Thats true. It is a problem when theyre down. When goldman was up with the new highs, everyone liked the arrangement. See how it goes from here. Appreciate that. To Morgan Stanley getting a ratings boost. Hey, mike. Goldm Goldman Sachs the outlier. Morgan stanley the last to report as you said. Coming in ahead of expectations with 22 year on year growth with trading revenues. Investment banking also strong. Wealth management offset by income. James goldman was optimistic on Common Ground being found moving forward on deregulation. There are a number of very specific fixes that both relieve the expense and time consumption now that the plans are relatively mature without detracting at all from the regulatory rigor necessary for a strong and healthy banking system. And for those bank has are fully capitalized, which we clearly count ourselves among them, it provides with an opportunity to return the excess capital to shareholders. He said anything below 30 on corporate taxes, which appears probable, would be very positive to Morgan Stanley. Banks for the most part higher today after a few tough days of trade. Morgan stanley reminding shareholders of the improving environment on a medium or longterm perspective. Shares up 2. 6 . Quite a contrast with goldman yesterday. Thank you, will. Lets go to Steve Liesman who has been combing through the fascinating, riveting book just released. Do i detect sarcasm in your voice, kelly . A little bit. Maybe not, maybe theres plenty. Lets go. The policy on certainty and promise of President Trump really are coloring the normally boring beige, but there are comments like this from boston. Several contacts expressed concerns about policy uncertainty. Firms said that a border adjustment tax would have mixed effects but hope for rest lose. Stuff like this from dallas. A few manufacturing contacts noted considerable policy uncertainty, especially rashding changes that would impact trade with mexico. Growth was moderate to modest. Areas of policy concern in the base included immigration, tourism, taxes and trade. This is second report in the row to mention these kind of concerns prominently, and it serves a potential warning to the Trump Administration failing to deliver along with lingering uncertainty on the outlook could undermine business as much as policies could potentially help. Overall sounded like a pretty good report. Anyway, always good nuggets there. Steve thank you very much. Our Steve Liesman. Joining our Closing Bell Exchange we have peter joining us from the lindsey group. Anton at post nine from men deny capital advisors. Our own Rick Santelli checks in from the cme in chicago. Anton, let me begin with you. How important so far are the bank results that were getting . What do they tell you about this market . Well, i mean the numbers are pretty good. I mean the only one that really missed was goldman. I think long growth is one of the weak spots out there, but weve seen a record bond issuance in First Quarter. Obviously showed up in phase but not lones outstanding. The most important thing is the optimism expressed. Jamie diamond talked about opt miss among businesses and consumers. I think that that optimism will translate into higher growth and a hire earnings, and i think we will see that from banks Going Forward. Keith, you know, despite that kind of expressed optimism about the consumer from the bank ceos, the market itself has taken on a bit of a defensive tone in the last, lets say, six to eight weeks. I guess the question now, has it just been biding its time, gathering a Little Energy for maybe another attempt at the old highs, or is this a change of character in the market we have to get used to for a while . It is an excellent point. I think we have to wait another couple of weeks as the earning season plays out here. You are right. If you look at the broad market indexes, theyve been consolidating a little bit. We caught them over sold a couple of weeks ago and theyve had a difficult time getting off their back. Theyve been buffeted by certainly geopolitical concerns, other things coming out from various companies and sectors, people are concerned about that. Weve seen the tenyear trade all the way down on the yield there, and weve actually got the tenyear note overbought yesterday. Theres been so much money pouring into that sector. When i look at the Broader Market, michael, i think what is really critical as we look at it today and well get a couple of key reports tonight is take a look at the transports. The transports from january 2016, they turned around, a longterm down trend and theyve been in an up trend. Theyre vacillating at the long term trend line. Theyve lost 6 since march 1. It is more for them to hold up. When csx and Canadian Pacific reports tonight, people should be aware what theyre saying about the longterm future. Theres been wage pressures inside that sector. Yeah. Other types of concerns. But if they can get a foothold and continue to march forward, i think it will drag the rest of the market back with it. Great point. Peter, some people have said one of the reasons they think bold yields have fallen is concerns over a government shut down that could happen in the next few weeks . Is that a reason to worry . Weve seen this movie multiple times over the past few years, its been quietly resolved. So i really think it is other issues. I think it is the fed thats raising Interest Rates into a a slow economy. I think it is the question of tax reform and whether it comes this year or next year, and obviously people are now fearing next year. The implications of that could be a freezing of this business Decision Making this year. So i think it is a variety of factors and not really the debt ceiling issue. Rick, you know, we were talking about the feds base book. There was mention in there about a tight market and potential wage pressures looking widespread. The treasury market didnt seem to take much out of that. Whats your read right now . You have the 10 year sitting around 20, depending how you define it, thats about the low end of its range. I think theres a lot of aspects to this, but keeping it simple, you know, the twoyear note has been on the soft side. All things being equal, the road the fed is on should keep the twoyear note yield firmer and it is not. I think the market is looking at the notion, no matter what kind of comments are coming out of fed officials, that the idea of Balance Sheet reduction and a coexistence with rising rates is going to coexist together, and i think most traders just dont really believe that. I know that many people on cnbc have talked about it, but i do think one will come at the expense of the other in some form. I think the market is pretty smart about that. I think the market in the past has learned its lessons well. The fed is going to stretch this process out as much as they can, and i still believe that the process has less to do with the economy and more to do with the fact that the rate just has to be higher. I mean so many reasons. But lets keep it simple. You know, in 12 months we go into recession, they do need more fire power. It is an argument i made years ago, but, of course, you know, the expansion has continued all of these years. Now, it may run out of runway and as far as rates in general, i dont see anything thats going to cause this pattern to change any time soon. I think this melt is upon us, and depending upon which part of the curve starts to melt faster i think it could have bigger implications. So, anton, let me pair it with what you were saying about how youre reading the bank results as positive. Where does it leave us in a low rate environment and where does it leave goldman . Well, you know, i think goldman had a hiccup. Lets see if theres a trend here and see if they do it again. I think you got to give em a pass for at least a quarter. You know, everybody else got it right. They didnt this last quarter. Lets see what happens. I think as far as the low rate environment, it could put a lot more pressure on mergers and acquisitions in this space shall and i think thats really been an ongoing story for the last few years where youve seen 5 of the industry sell each year. I think were on a similar pace this year in higher prices, and i think lower rates will put pressures on companies hoping for higher rates. Peter, as we hear from a lot of companies, i guess im wondering what you think about the cadence of the u. S. Economy right now. Weve just been going through that now typical, kind of First Quarter, somewhat surprising slow down. It shouldnt be surprising anymore, and it is about to pick up a little bit from here. Well, again, thats the hope. We keep using that word hope and higher confidence, but some of the ceos i listen to still dont necessarily see reason for an acceleration in growth outside of just the hope for it. The actuality in real business activity, were not seeing the pickup in q2 i think you should see after whats likely going to be a very mediocre q1 print. I think were still stuck in this 2 type economy with hopes obviously for an acceleration, but no physical signs of it just yet. Before we go, keith, what to you make of the extended weakness in oil here . Well, ive long said i think oil is going to be stuck in a range for the foreseeable future. You know, the north american producers, particularly in the shale formation regions, theyve used the last few years as theyve been boroughing more money, renegotiating their debt, theyre been cleaning up Balance Sheets, but they used the opportunity to invest more in the technology for getting a barrel of oil out of the shale formation. What that does is drives down the cost per barrel and they can make money between 45 and 50 a barrel. As long as it stays in that sweet spot they will continue to produce. That will put a cap on oil prices, but also a floor on it as well because they the producers in both opec and north america will play in that range. They can make money in that range, and thats where were going to be right now. I wouldnt take too much from weakness in oil. I would take more if it got all the way below 40 a barrel, but right here, right now, im not real thrilled about the price action either way. Yeah, it is only 4 today but right in the middle of the range, smack in the middle of it. Gentlemen, thanks, everybody, for joining us here for our Closing Bell Exchange today. With about 45 minutes to go and the market has turned negative, the dao is down 106 points, the s p to nearly 3 points. Transports are positive by 55 points. The nasdaq is positive by 18, russell up 6. We have big earnings after the close. Qualcomm, American Express and csx reporting. Well break down their numbers as soon as they hit the tape. And billow riley is no longer a factor at fox news. Up next, we will take a look at the financial blow his firing may bring to 21st century fox. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Wheres jack . Hes on holiday. What do you need . I need the temperature for pipe five. Ask the new guy. E new guy . Jack trained him. Jacks guidance would bemaintain the temperature negative 160 degrees celsius. That doesnt sound like jack. Just cool it to minus 160 hand were set. Good on ya. Oh yeah. Thats jack. Its your tv, take it with u. With directv now and at t, get the ultimate in Entertainment Plus unlimited data. Get directv now for 10 a month when you havthe new at t unlimited plus plan. Welcome back. The dow the worst performing today, down half a percent. A lot we mentioned by a big price component, ibm after earnings miss last night. S p down and the nasdaq and russell positive. Crude oil is lower after new data showing the first weekly increase in gasoline supplies in two months. Among the energy laggers include hess, conocophilips and chevron. Not huge declines though, less in fact in the price of oil. Apparently a roll in the oil contract making things a little more noisy this afternoon. Tis the season. Thats right. Billow riley ousted from fox after the New York Times reported a rally in fox news, settling harassment cases. In San Francisco with a look for implications for the look at the media giant. Reporter this after much debate and speculation is official after mounting pressure, fox saying after a thorough and careful review of the allegations, the company and billow riley have agreed that oreilly will not be returning to the fox news channel. They announced Tucker Carlson will take over the 8 00 slot wloond the five will move to the 9 00 about p. M. Slot. Saying fox news has demonstrated again and again the strength of i think talent bench. We have full confidence the network will continue to be a power house in cable news. The media conglomerate shares are down 5. 5 since april 1 when the New York Times first printed allegations against oreilly. The Oreilly Factor was the highest rated cable news show for 15 years, bringing fox news an estimated 325 million in revenues over the last two years. That makes it the top earner of any show on fox news, cnn or msnbc. Now, in his absence this past week ratings declined by about a quarter, about 25 over four days, while fox news has topped cable ratings over the past 15 weeks oreilly is the latest major departure in the past year, including former fox news chief bob rails and anchor grecher carlson, greta van ses ter an and megyn kelly. A number of analysts said they believe that the platform fox news is bigger than any one personality. Guys. Julia, were obviously watching the stock for immediate reaction. Im surprised it has been so muted. Also heard on power lunch the exposure they have to the show and the dollars it rakes in seems to keep diminishing depending on who you talk to. Thats right. I think it is worth noting the stock is down about 5 in the past couple of weeks since news of the scandal first broke. There has been some movement in the stock, and i think that there is hope that the you know, from investors and analysts that the rest of the lineup will rearrange and that those ad dollars will find another home. It is also worth noting with fox news that a significant portion of those revenues come less from advertising but also from the subscription fees from the tv distributors, the comcasts, you know, directvs of the world. So it is certainly fascinating to watch. A lot of debate about how much ad revenue exactly oreilly himself brought in and how crucial he was to the lineup that he was sort of the center piece of. But thats a question, is the platform more powerful than the individual personalities. Yeah, julia. You mentioned the advertising dollars. Obviously theyve had a week or two since many of the advertisers boycotted to maybe find another home for those dollars. Obviously not a a big sample size, but it will be interesting to see if those advertisers quickly sort of test out the new host, whoever that might be, and basically say, look, this is an audience we need to reach somehow . Yeah, we have to remember that advertisers buy a bundle will. It is not like they buy specifically for this show, so many of them, even when they were boycotting the Oreilly Factor were slotting their ads into other shows on the network. So there wasnt there was no specific Immediate Impact because of a lot of those advertisers boycotting. So it will be interesting to see what happened. We saw a decrease in ratings in the past week when he was away on vacation, but once we have the Tucker Carlson in his slot, we will see how the ratings change again. So there have been a number of changes at fox over the past year, as i mentioned, and still fox ratings have been, you know, at highs, topping all of their rivals over the past 15 weeks. So despite the departures of megyn kelly and Gretchen Carlson and even the former chief of fox news roger ailes. Yeah, all of a sudden it is not one or two things, it is quite a bit. We will see w