Spp a s p. Are the brexit fears behind us, we ask . Lavin th lebenthal what do you say . Be frank. As summer goes on more headlines, more scares of other countries leaving the european union. The uncertainty the market hates. Taking down a Major Institution like the eu. Were in the clear for now, but i do think this is going to be a choppy summer. Having said that, range bound between 1900 and 2100 for the foreseeable future on the s p 500. Easy to be enthralled by the green arrows. Bond market, tenyear treasury yield pinned to 1. 46 . Not seeing commensurate move in the safe havens of bonds and stocks . Markets gone nowhere 18 months. Look where we are now and the fact theres the fact that got us there versus before june 23rd. You have to come to the conclusion the Global Economy is worse off. That the circumstances are worse off, and that monetary stimulus, which had gotten us to where we are, which is flat, is ineffective in terms of how much more it can contribute, and if they go more to negative rates, thats actually disaster, because it just breeds deflation, and we dont need deflation. We need inflation. So as i look at markets, im in the risk off mode. Trying to pare back, sure, trading opportunities, take advantage of them, otherwise cant make any money. Looking for a low return vibrant. By that i mean 4 to 6 in equities before june 23rd. Where am i now . I think, i dont know if youre in a bear market but close to recession. You believe the message the bond market is sending to us now. What do you believe . The shock and awe for friday, obviously. Saw a dramatic move to the down side. Spike in the vix and come in monday, see volatility index up again here it is pushing towards 27. Midday started coming back in. Monday, despite the fact we were down 300plus points on the dow, start seeing volatility index pressured lower and lower. People doing what they should be. Take advantage of the spike. Low a long period of time. Low to midteens. Slid a big spike, gives a great opportunity to sell some of that premium, sell some of that protection. Thats exactly what people were doing. Look at whats reacting, mel, look at the areas. How about the way biotechs traded yesterday and today, extremely strong, sure. Oil correlation continues to be part of this marketplace. When were going down, yes, those oil names go to the down side. Start to move up, oils obviously moving up again. You start to see xle talking just before they handed it off to us, moving to the up side along with material. When i look at markets now i see a market that now with volatility under 17, i think its time to start looking at protecting once again, because i dont think the shock and awe is over with but we had the initial shock and awe that might consistently go through the next couple months. Takeaway to trade higher but winch a range. I still thing the range, tighting up jims range big time. Closer to 1975 to 2100. I think you can actually push to the down side. I dont want to touch saw the other day. By the way 1900. Well not right now. As we move through the year, i think the risk, pick up dramatically. You clearly have a more negative view on the economy, though, than i do. Right. What are you doing today . Yesterday i loaded up on the gdxj. Junior miners, up 4 . Big as the market move, despite people saying risk on, well, junior miners, a 4 hop, mel, because of the unusual activity that led us in there. This ones still moving up. I think this really shows zero Interest Rate or zerp really has driven a lot of folks to basically have to, puts a gun to their head, makes them pull the trigger even if they dont feel like it. Around the desk, most of us, selloff on friday and monday saying, well, you know, you still need to feel a little more before you feel comfortable saying, yeah, this is a substantial drop. Most of the stocks were following 2 and 3 drops. There were exceptions, like barclays and some of these. The ones i nibbled on, but i did not see the flush that i thought we would see, and thats because there was so much money on the sidelines, that came racing in, ev ev even only a minor dip in the stocks. The seek for yield is so strong, nowhere else to go. A forced move within stocks, within a range. Headlines from you guys. Take a look, though. Look at the european banks, or the past couple sessions. Theyve done almost nothing. Deutsche bank, lloyds, robisbs, Credit Suisse, down. Absolutely getting crushed and to a certainly extent a canary in the coal mine saying what expectations are for the european economy. I dont think anybody expects a robust european economy. The question, whats going on with the u. S. Economy . If the Global Economy is going to power through whats going on in europe it has to come from the u. S. Now, unfortunately, this week were really light on data. On friday get the ism survey and next friday the jobs report. Unfortunately, both for june and not really going to show the effect for brexit, but the problem for us is we dont have a real feel for where the u. S. Economy is post brexit. Can i give you the road map . Over the next few weeks were going to get earnings. Enteri ining send quarter earni. With the dollar, its down, ceos coming out saying we got to adjust for dollar. Then what happened in europe before the brexit vote that ceos pulled back on cap backs. Already had issues with a lack of Capital Spending from corporations. Thats going to get worse in front of the election. So thats the road map. Now, in between, i think you will get fiscal stimulus from europe, and thats very, very important, because that will actually help as opposed to monetary the euro to your point, steve, i see the opposite of what stephen sees, because i dont see that dollar going anywhere ear. Euro still 111. Where was it before the vote . Where was it a year ago . I dont see that strength hurting u. S. Companies selling 60 overseas. Not a head wind . No. Okay. Those that want to pull that will find themselves hit. The yuan is coming down. Best thing for china, off the front pages while brexit is happening, but devaluing and lowering range. Thats going to keep happening and will hurt. Talk about earnings and hone in on nike. Higher at this hour after beating on earnings. Concerns of future orders weighs on shares early and especially in outdoor session saw nike down by 6. 5 . Dr. J, bought the stock last night . Yep, and in the after hours, watching your show, with guy and pete, credit to both of them for also saying that. I talked about it during the show yesterday, mel. The halftime, i said calls aggressively bought. Bought those. A one by two put spread meaning short puts to the down side. Not happy trading at 49 last night, mel. Thats nike, of course, but then as it came off of that, started buying as soon as it got to basically 50 again, i started buying. Flipped out on my stock. Still short those puts. I still have about 50 calls left out of all of the calls i bought, but i like the report. I dont think nike is going to screw up. I think this is stock that you buy and hold on a dip like that. The question we have here looking at nikes earnings, is this going to be a bellwether for earnings season . Probably one of best brands out there. A multinational company. In anyboif anybody is facing he winds it would theoretically be nike. What do you think . I dont think its a bellwether because i think it outperforms all the time. Look at what went on with china. I watched the show you did last night and know you talked about it, but there was serious growth in there, china future orders. Indicative of me what they can do even though the yuan is declining. I think what you do have to worry about with nike is if you have a choppy market going into the summer with nor eu concerns, more breshgs itlike concerns, i think you will get another opportunity to buy nike down at 50. Id love to own the stock but will wait for it at 50. The readthrough . Park der a great job on the conference call. Too many people sold when they saw the news headline come out and saw revenues slightly, just a little bit like the beat on earnings by a penny and suddenly everybody sells it off jons point at 49. I had calls also. Jon said, saw unusual activity. The flat part of the north America Thing surprised me most. Growth where they wanted it. In emerging markets. Look at japan, china, growth in western europe, Everything Else, all impressive. Talked inventory levels as well. Felt more comfortable, something we talked about last night. Inventories higher but inline exactly what projected them to be. It wasnt as negative and thats why i think it started coming back in the posthours last night and then all of a sudden today we see what we see. Nike is fine. One of those brands that has a moat around it, defendable position on internet because they can control pricing, and they have. Put a floor on discounts and parker recognized their Digital Strategy isnt what it should be and theyll work on that. I think nike is okay. Not a cheap stock. Never is. A good brand. Worried about national support. A different perspective in july. Hear a different message and this is not a bellwether stock to your point, got to go to break. Cominging up on the Halftime Report. Announcer still ahead and under the radar, brexit trade in retail. Why one analyst says t. J. Maxx is about to be a big winner. Plus, the little egg sandwich that could. The mcmuffin turns 45 today. And its been crucial to the mcdonalds growth story. Well debate, whether middle aged mcmuffins can keep driving the stock. And stressed out. The banks get their stress test results this afternoon. Well tell you how to trade it, all coming up on the Halftime Report. Sup jj, working hard . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app on the app store. It lets you trade stocks, options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey . Td ameritrade. Real is touching a ray. Amazing is moving like one. Real is making new friends. Amazing is getting this close. Real is an animal rescue. Amazing is over twentyseven thousand of them. There is only one place where real and amazing live. Seaworld. Real. Amazing welcome back to the Halftime Report. Look at the s p 500 sector heat map standing 2066 on the epx. Utilities seeing the most pressure if you call it that, barely in the red. Energy, health care financials leading the charge here on the spx. Focus on retail. Tjx reiterated outperform keeping its 85 price target saying the brexit decision could actually provide an opportunity here. John morris, analyst behind that call and joins us live from new york for our call of the day. Great to you have. Good to be here. You point out in your note the uk business is approximately 8 to 10 of your sales mix. Whats the worst Case Scenario you plug in in terms of Economic Outlook there . The worst case would really be if we not only have a brief downturn but it turns into an elongated kind of a downturn and you fall into a kind of deep, prolonged recession that might spill in across, you know, europe, but, you know, quite frankly, im not sure were quite there at this point and youve got to keep in mind the uk is only 8 to 10 of tjxs business. This is a company that tends to benefit because of the offprice nature of the selling. Can benefit from the trading down of the consumer, if you will, to pick up some share. We hear that all the time when it comes to tjx and so far its working. Whats the Tipping Point . At what point its not a trade down but a trade down from the trade down and thats not buying . Well, i think youve got a long ways to go before you get to that or a hypothetical on a hypothetical, because what youre looking at it the 800pound gorilla in what is a space with a handful of players in a growing retail niche, and when youve got the secular downturn of Department Stores i think, we think, will continue to go upon and on and on, the Department Stores pain is really the offpricers gain. So many positive tailwinds, not only the fact that tjx executes well, has a strong Balance Sheet and management, it would tak really almost an unimaginable disaster scenario to thwart it. A great name to know in a period of uncertainty at volatility. Jim lebenthal. What you said about the Department Stores pain being tjs and off offprice discounters gain, why wouldnt that be amazon and other online retailers gain . That certainly has been the trade for the last at least two years, is, you know, anything that has a bricks and mortar content has been getting owned by amazon. Whats your feeling on that . You know, two aspects to this. I think amazon and a lot of the econ players will continue to pick up share, but theres a lot of share to be picked up. Right . From everybody. Broadline, Department Stores, some specialty, outlet. You know . On and on and on. When looking at the ecom or amazons of the world and the offprice companies, off price is a different shopping experience. You know . There you really, the customer he or she wants to go to the store, find the treasure hunt. Sorry to interrupt. We have to go to president obama. Taped playback from a meeting with mexicans in the canadians presence. Let me just publicly extend my deepest condolences to the people of turkey for the terrible attack that took place in istanbul. I had a chance to speak to president erdogan earlier today, to discuss with him not only how heart broken we have been by the images of the injured and those killed, but also to reaffirm our strong commitment to partner with turkey, with nato, with the broadbased alliance that we have structured around the world to fight isil. Its an indication of ground unable to govern the areas that theyve taken over, that they are going to be defeated in syria. Theyre going to be defeated in iraq. That have an impact on the entire civilized world. And i know that that view is shared by mexico. Its shared by canada. Its shared by all of the people of this hemisphere and its shared in every region of the world. So we stand with the people of turkey, and we intend to do whats necessary to make sure that these kinds of terrible events are not happening. Now, on a happier note, the cooperation thats been taking place between the United States and mexico across a whole range of issues has been outstanding. We had the opportunity to discuss the continuing strength of our Business Commercial trade, politics, our business, and weve been listening to president obama. Taped playback of a meeting hes had with the mexican president as you saw there in ottawa. This is a trade meeting but he did make comments about the airport blasts in turkey last night. Were going to take a break here with the markets at session highs now. Lots more halftime right after this. I want to get to brussels, the first minister Nicola Sturgeon is speaking with eu officials. Wilfr wilfred . Reporter melissa, thanks. Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the eu referendum, the rest of the United Kingdom voted leave. Nicola sturgeon, a party traveling to brufrls to see if she can extricate herself from a potential brexit saying that the response from eu leaders has been very sympathetic to scotlands situation, but perhaps the key part of her comments was this ive not been here today to reach any conclusions or to press anybody for any decisions or any commitments. Ive been here today to make sure that scotlands voice is being heard and that scotlands position is understood, and im confident that that is the case. Reporter and its interesting she said that, because earlier comments from other european leaders to put cold water on the idea that she could extricate scotland from a brexit. The Prime Minister of spain saying its clear scotland does not have competence to negotiate with the eu. I am extremely against it. For now, it appears scotland is beholden to the decision of the wider United Kingdom, unless it is have another referendum for its own membership of the United Kingdom and that does not look likely anytime soon, that jpmorgan said it is theyre base case but not until 2019. Thank you, in brussels for us. Trader blidtz, four stocks making news. Removing ge capital systemically important, designation. Pete, you liked the stock a long time . Owned it quite away. Back to the financial crisis when it sold off. Started selling off assets. One of the reasons this designation has come off them. I think gives them room to the upside. Maybe we do see 32 again. Trading 32 a share. Done the right thing getting themselves out of that world or most of that world with the ge portion of it from a financial aspect. I think this stock goes higher. Biogen and a rating and the firm a 282 price target. Steve . Very nice target. Bio tech, pete mentioned before, having a nice run yesterday and today. Highly volatile. To me one of the sectors that isnt affected by currency or trade. I like it. I Like Health Care overall. Affected by the elections . I think this will be back burner, actually. Not one of the top. Okay. Monsanto, higher following comments following comments from eu antitrust officials saying they plan to review the offer to buy the company and reporting earnings miss today. Jim . It was an earnings miss, but stock up almost 2 . The stock will only trade on takeover news now. News they are possibly talking to our suitors besides bayer, why it has a little bid today. All takeover what moves the stock from here. All right. Southwestern energy announcing a 75 million share secondary offering. Dr. J . Wow. Stocks up 84 year to date, mel. Having a dip today. 6 . Probably because upped from 75 million shares. Grab it up apple 4 . Coming up, the mcmuffin celebrates its birthday. Pushing mcdonalds stock higher. 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