Right with one or two days left in the quarter the announcement comes Yerba Buena Center in San Francisco and its available to the public with just one or two days of actual data, if you will and so i think thats likely to still be the case. I think they will still announce it and still have it available with just those one or two days at the end of this quarter josh, 200 bucks is that the point that investors and apple should be setting their sights on at this point . I dont know what market cap that would imply is that 1 trillion . Thats over 1 trillion theyre doing buybacks. 190 . All right, listen, if the history books were written and apple became the First Company in World History to be worth 1 trillion, i dont think i would fall out of my chair thats not a prediction or a price target, but i do own the stock. Ive owned it forever. Ive cackled with glee at all the various upgrades and downgrades over the year i continue to receive my dividend and rejoice in all the new technology this Company Provides me. I would be fine with this being the first one to get there i know a lot of technologyists think it will be amazon, not apple, but apple looks closer. One point i want to bring out is that if you look at charts right now, its as if last thursdays alleged market top never have been happened. Every major index is back above those thursday levels, except for the russell 2000, not that far away transports, a luxurious bounce over the t200day. Thats where everyone pointed to and said, they have to find support. Boy, did they. And look at the f. A. N. G. S, the semis, all of xlk, back to basics its almost as if Nothing Happened and this is a repeated pattern so eventually we wont resolve this way, but why bother playing this game where you think this is going to be the one weiss, i go back to what david tepper told me yesterday about tech, specifically, quote, the multiples are still low. They just look cheaper than any other part of the market, even though theyve moved meaning, hes talking broadly, obviously, but you can put the stocks that josh just mentioned and technology f. A. N. G. S or at least some of them into that area and its important to understand that daves not just looking at today, and now, hes also looking out two years and three years, and the Phenomenal Growth rates that you have in alphabet, for example, 26 topline. In other words where else are you going to get that level of growth, with multiples that are still in the low teens. And youre not in a stretch, nasdaq either. And then youve got to look where cash always finds a level, right . Is cash going to find that level in credit, with a 220 tenyear, gundlach says go 220, 230. Youre not making money there. And i would say your risk is much greater there than it is in performance, obviously not no risk loss of capital. But than in equities because i think equities can keep going where the Global Economy is improving and to joshs point, that wasnt even a correction. We were down a few percent its a blip. It had people thinking that something was coming it does, underneath the same people every time so lets just stay on the apple thing. 200 for the stock is that inevitable, jim . Well, i do think it is. Now, look, predicting the future is kind of tough, but lets talk about this no, its not. If you know, if sellside analyst Jim Lebenthal puts out a note on apple, is that the headline look at this new record run. Is 200 inevitable heres what i think is going to happen, scott i think the next 10 is based on the iphone 8 coming o out ae ii being a supercycle upsale. Weve had analysts that disagree but when you get that next 10 and youre above 900 billion on the market cap, i think theres going to be an enormous amount of hype about the possibility that this is the first 1 trillion stock excuse me, 1 trillion company ever. And youre going to see a lot of talk about it, probably see a little box in the lower left of this screen, that says, countdown to apple 1 trillion that hype now, this is not scientific, this is not fundamental analysis, but that hype is probably going to suck it up to the 1 trillion valuation and then get it another 10 higher i do think 200 is in the cards i find those levels, actually, take a while you go through them and then fall back, as youve seen we did that withapple a while ago. Im talking about trillion, but im talking about amazon, big round numbers. I hate to tell you, thats technical analysis, though theres a reason why that happens. Were talking about 20 upside i think you need a cooperative market to help that, right because there is a pricing and a valuation umbrella to the market and you need the fundamentals to continue to go and with the iphone 8, i think theres a lot of expectation people will buy it theyll buy it in droves and youve had no pushback from the wireless carriers. Youve actually had an accommodative one other thing, too. Were talking about global businesses which in the 1980s and 90s, its not Like Companies werent doing business overdose, but not degree when apple stares at the chinese opportunity and the india opportunity, both at the same time its almost like a whole other markets worth of consumers coming online, not today, but in the ten years, in the next twenty years and thats different from prior bull markets where you just didnt have companies with this much green field in front of them doesnt mean theyll capture it all. Doesnt mean it will be great for earnings in every country they go to, but we have to stop thinking about this you know, markets as just a u. S. Phenomenon, when we look at the degree to which the s p is harvesting profits and revenues overseas i go again to the tepper comments hes looking at world growth, right . World earnings which is reaccelerating stocks being cheaper and he points to one thing, he would say that its Global Economic growth. Right, thats driving the market but he paints a scenario that plays right into what youre saying, weiss, of a market that enables apple to continue to go up and hit that 200 level that people are now saying, you know, that nice round number straight ahead of us. Absolutely right. And youve got a company thats arguably the cheapest of the f. A. N. G. S on a p e basis, might not be the best topline grower, but theres nobody coming into their space. Youve got samsung and apple, sure, youve got some Chinese Brands coming in, but theyll be in a very tight band in chooina and youll still have the competition with the iphone. Wall street journal says apple is readying a 1 billion war chest for hollywoods you dont theyre making a big push there. They put 3 billion into dr. Dre, forgods sake lets bring in tony sag knacky of bernstein joining us today. Welcome back thanks, scott what do you make of this reboot and this run again for apple. These new record highs well, look, weve seen in advance of iphone Product Announcements that the stock does very well and statistically, on average, if you look back over all iphone product cycles historically, the stock has outperformed by 15 Percentage Points in the three months prior to a Product Announcement and we think this is investors bracing themselves for a new product, potentially revolutionary in terms of its form factor. And so we see this pattern its a big liquid stock. Its really important in terms of Institutional Investor benchmarks and so when theres news about this product coming, about what the bill plans might be, about what feature functionality it has, you have Institutional Investors move to market weights or move above market weights because of the importance of the stock. So this is a phenomenon that occurs despite the fact that this name is so well followed and. Its a pattern weve seen before and are seeing it again. It currently deeps you sellside analysts on your toes when you look at your price targets and your notes the stock continues to blow through price targets. Not yours, quite yet 175 bucks is what youre looking at but to answer the question that weve asked our guests on the show today already, 200 bucks, foregone conclusion . Kbroyou know, look, certainl over time, whether we get there before the end of the year or not, i think is more difficult to say how i frame it is, if you go back to the peak relative multiple that apple got during the last big iphone cycle, the iphone of and apply that multiple to 11 in earnings, you get about 182 stock price fe if you were to believe that earnings could be closer to 12, you come up with a 200 price target so if initial data points, which, you know, well start to see in october, november, in all likelihood, is that this cycle could be really significant, and then on top of that, you know, you likely have potentially a new apple watch, in time for the holiday season, apples home speaker starts selling in december you have the new highend max coming out and you have news on the content front, collectively, those could be things that push the stock. But first and foremost, 70 of the profits of this company are driven by iphone what people are going to be focused on is how significant is this cycle how rich are the asps and how significant are the units. In all of the things you just listed tony, you didnt even mention buybacks, dividends, a debt offering, and a big one, to fund that sort of activity we can call it Financial Engineering or whatever you want, but that combined with the fundamental things you just mentioned, a pretty powerful story. It is look, the stock is very inexpensive. It trades at about 11 times free cash flow, if you give them credit for their net cash position but that said, you know, apple has never really, in the last four or five years, traded at a markup multiple or higher, because there is a belief that the business is really concentrated on iphone and the history of electronics products, you know, particularly the pc market place, is that its very difficult to sustain both Pricing Power and unit growth once a market becomes saturated. And so that has always been, and i think, rightfully so, sort of the ceiling on the multiple. And you know, it tends to go to the high end of the range, when there are big product cycles the question will be, do investors become increasingly convinced that theres something beyond the iphone . Whether it be services or whether it be, you know, a new whether the apple watch ultimately breaks out and becomes a very, very significant product over time. Yeah, tony, as always, appreciate your commentary look forward to having you back. Thanks, scott bernsteins tony sagonacci. Sun trust out today, initiating with a number of buy calls on stocks. On amazon, 1220 target teppers doing great with the baba call, because he added to that pretty significantly, steven, with this latest not to mention facebook not to mention facebook i will point out that a lot of the folks that are trading apple right now are getting more realistic, not so much about 200, even though we tossed it around here on the desk and time frame on that, but about the 175 level. In other words, with the stock here at 161ish, 162, theyre looking at about 175 as a top, for most of this year, because theyre out there in november, theyre aggressively selling calls at about that level, again today. Scott, if i can make one quick point. Were obviously talking about the amazons, the apples, the real bellwethers of tech but this rally over the last month is far more broadbased than that. And a lot of the things that have been left by the side, the oldline technology for the last month really has performed well. If you look at intel, if you look at cisco, even qualcomm over the last week, now its got some specific problems that hold it back, but even these olderline Technology Stocks have been performing along with this and what it may well be indicating is that money is coming into the etfs and the nasdaq 100 has to have a certain weighting in these stocks and they get sucked up with it but it is a Broad Technology i want to also mention that its not only a Broad Technology rally, its international. Look at what ten cent reported last night ten cent is essentially the number one mobile Gaming Platform in china, combined with the facebook of china, which is we chat. 1 billion users and growing. This is one of the biggest winners youll ever see. Already up 70 yeartodate, continues to go higher no one talks about it. Its an enormous market cap, globally take a look at kweb here in the u. S. , if youre afraid to wade into things like baba and ten cent on their own, kweb is an etf that owns chinese internet stocks its up 60 yeartodate one of the most pristine uptrends you will find for a sector of international names. And theres this misnomer that there isnt tech outside of the u. S. And its absolutely wrong and these companies are going to be multibilliondollar forcing people to focus there. Call this the dance with new brunian trade. If you think this is going to come back and tech is the place to be, its the place you should have been already. Its carried the its been the bestperforming sector in the stock market and why wouldnt it continue to be so . Well, particularly if growth is continuing to move higher, globally because if you have money and youre a business, you upgrade your technology. If youre hiring more workers, you buy more technology. If youre a consumer, you add to what you own whether its air pods or tv echo dot. Yep so, so, it should continue to go all right i want to make note of some moves youre making in your portfolio, outside of tech but we want to let our viewers know, a couple of interesting moves that youre making as well, that they may be interested in following. What is it well, so i got out of xle, which was really just occupying space in my portfolio at this point. Hasnt been a losing trade, just really not much going on with it its paying a decent dividend. But i saw better opportunities i bought a couple of reits one is invitation homes. This is an incredible story. Its essentially starwood and blackstone merging their singlefamily home businesses into one it will be the number one landlord of singlefamily home rentals in the United States and yet have less than 2 market share. This is an enormous asset class. Extremely fragmented i think this combination is going to be killer itsnot a high yield, because its a growth reit the other one is historic capital. Warren buffett just bought a direct stake from them last quarter. Store is getting tarred, but the market has it wrong. They are a triple net lease operator, but its standalone properties and very, very small exposure to retail what theyre actually owning is the buildings that house things like petcare, salons, gyms, movie theaters this is a 3 yield right now buffets in, and this is a company that is not exposed to disruption via amazon. They are exposed to the hottest part of the Consumer Spending opportunity, which is experiences and services so i dont think this is being appropriately valued it should not trade with Simon Properties and the mall reits. They dont own malls they have no malls these are two ways to be a very lazy landlord, collect a nice yield, and the great thing, scott, about reits, just to wrap up, if there is inflation, if there is an uptick in yields, commensurate with that, reits raise their lease rates and so you get that inflation hedge with real estate this is a really kind of lowtouch way to get that exposure can i add one name to that. Both of those reits that you mentioned, josh, move nicely higher agree realty, adc, also triple net, also not exposed to malls. They buy essentially and build, develop for walgreens and ore Companies Like that. Have been a major transition in the Company Since the new ceo, joe avery, took over a number of years ago. Whats the yield on that . The yield is over 4 about 4. 6. And families have not sold any shares of the stock at all keep your eye on that and we basically threw in the towel on energy. Its not a call on oil prices as howard marks like to say, there is nothing intelligent to be said about the future of oil prices i dont have any edge there on what crudes going to do but i already have exposure to the major integrateds through indexes and things like that i want to stop you on something that you just said how can you be invested in the xle or get out of Something Like the xle without, in essence, making a call on where you think oil is going to go because what im actually doing is im saying, Energy Equities have recovered a great deal multiples are still low, but thats because growth is low but if you thought that oil was going to go i have no idea what oil is going to do. I dont think anyone does. If you thought oil was going to go, say, to 60, would you necessarily be selling out of the xle today . No. No if i thought oil was going to go to 60 and i thought there was any reason for me to have confidence in that forecast. I dont thats my point you have no confidence in the future direction in crude, which is in essence show me someone who does, theyre lying. Its a global commodity with a million inputs its not only supply and demand, its speculators trading every day. And youre looking at some who have done so well. I can show you hedge funds that have done incredibly well. Theyre losing their shirts. Look at the oil god, whats his name andrew hall that was a misnomer i know hes smart, but since he fine. I dont know if investors made as much money as he did from management. No, of course not so he has all of the ability in the world to have an edge on the price of oil nobody has gotten it more wrong for as long as and so if ecknt do it, what do i know . So you invest in Energy Equities, not because you know what crudes going to do youre looking for a margin of safety looking for companies that are trading at a low enough valuation that even if crude fa falls, theyll still be okay i did fine in xle. I have no reason to complain but there are better opportunities and so, when you have a portfolio, you only have so many slices of the pizza pie. 20 minutes in, were just getting started. Heres what else is coming up on h