Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140307 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch March 7, 2014

Sell, keep putting money into equities and mutual funds, take something off the table, put it into bonds, cash . We will give you answers and advice in the next 59 minutes. Lets first check in with sue downtown. Im just looking at the markets, ty. Despite the big jobs number, not the greatest day for stocks. We are far off of our highs of the day. Right now, the dow is up 22 points on the trading session. The nasdaq is negative, down about half a percent. We are fractionally lower on the s p but check out some staggering stats we found for you. The current five year bull market is the second strongest since world war ii. It is the sixth longest on record and the bull run ranks fourth in terms of the strongest bull markets of all time, according to the people who rank bull markets. Gold up 47 from the market low on march 9th of 2009 and crude up more than 110 since that particular point. So kenny pulcari joins me now. We were anticipating this number all week. Everybody said if we get a boffo number to the upside, skys the limit for the market. That has not been the case. It was very interesting because premarket when that number came out, you saw futures rally right away, ten points and it felt like thats what they were going to do, they were going to challenge, they were going to challenge not only the all time high but try to challenge 1900. In fact, it went to the high and bang, hit a wall. And there was real natural selling there. Listen, its friday, the weekends coming, you still have the whole geopolitical issue out there. People are just taking sellers are not being aggressive but there is plenty around for sale. What would you do, if you are a longterm investor, maybe you dont have to do anything at this point. Maybe you dont. As a longterm investor, you still have the plan in place. However you do it. Whether you do it monthly or quarterly, however you do it, you should maintain that plan because the truth is, the turnaround i think is really happening, not only here but in other parts of the world that we have been talking about, so the future does look bright. But a longterm investor shouldnt make daytoday decisions based on one number. No, but you know, everybody was using the weather as an excuse. That was expected to be an influence in this particular report so can we no longer use weather as the excuse . I dont think you can use weather anymore. It will be interesting tonight and over the weekend how they actually dissect this number because this runs in complete contrast to all the other numbers weve seen the last couple weeks. A lot of people sit there scratching their head going how do you come up with that number. Unemployment actually ticked up a tenth of a percent. Thats right. All right. Kenny, thank you so much. See you a little later. Ty . The markets have by any stretch come a long way over the past five years but some stocks really havent. Probably most the ones we own. We dont own stocks, actually. Dominic chu taking a closer look at the names that have been left behind in the bull run. We will start with seema. You have been looking at the best performing category, it is Consumer Discretionary but as we all know, there are sectors and then there are mini sectors within. Tell me about that. The sectors up 320 but there are three main sectors in Consumer Discretionary, online travel, hotels and luxury. Whats interesting is that its not just a pickup in the economy in Consumer Spending fueling these sectors. Strategic decisions by companies have helped investors become more bullish on these names. First up, lets talk about online travel, Companies Like priceline and expedia, both up 1,000 since 2009 thanks to making key acquisitions, building out Hotel Inventory and identifying the rapid shift to mobile early on. These stocks have been soaring. Hotel stocks have also been on fire. Morningstar says expanding overseas, specifically in macao, Building Hotels in key locations were key in driving profitability for these names. Lastly, high end retail. Tiffanys up 450 since the market bottom. Coach up 314 . Analysts point out that these retailers were quick to witness the emerging market boom and did a good job at expanding their presence in key markets like china before their competitors. Several strategists on the street are betting that Consumer Discretionary stocks will outperform this year, citing gradual improvement in the economy, the Housing Market and in wages plus jpmorgans thomas lee points out the mini selloff we had in january has brought down valuations. Lets call these the Pharrell Williams happy stocks. Love that song. I love that song, too. Now lets go to the daniel powder, you had a bad day. So you had a bad day. These stocks have really had a bad fiveyear stretch. If you look at some of these stocks, seema told you about the star performers. Take a look at big names here. Weight watchers for one. This stock in 177 run for the s p 500 is up just 22 . With weight watchers, there is concerns about whether or not its more about traditional meals and meetings and points or can they monetize the mobile, the evolution to online weight watch tracking. Thats a huge one. Also, check out another one thats pretty much just flat dead money over the last five years, avon, the direct to home selling of cosmetics. That company has concerns internationally, perhaps issues with whether or not people are still bullish about that particular part of the cosmetics business. Its been flat for the last five years and heres one for you, and this is interesting. Apollo education, its been highly publicized, some of the controversy around these forprofit education type programs. Apollo has lost half its value even since the lows of march of 2009. So this is a company, one of many of these forprofit education stocks, that has not had a good run. Devry another one that hasnt been a star performer in the russell 1,000 broader index of large cap companies. If you had taken apollo and the points you still would have lost. With the points. Thank you very much. 175,000 jobs created in february. The Participation Rate, though, still remains near historic low of 63 . What can you tell us about the numbers inside the numbers . First, i will give you a pen. Lot of numbers coming up. I will take some notes. First, the 175, lets talk about that, suggests underlying strength of what is widely acknowledged as harsh Winter Weather month. Here are the numbers. Nonfarm up 175, december, january revised, together 25,000. Unemployment rate ticks up but thats because people came back into the work force. Thats a good sign, along with a strong gain in average hourly wages up 0. 4 . Those are two good signs for the work force for the labor market. One place we saw the weather was in the decline in hours worked. They didnt shed employees, they shed employees hours. Thats down to what looks like a threeyear low. Where were the jobs . Education and health coming back stronger, leisure, hospitality, maybe disney hired a lot of people because people fled the cold. Temporary help, that can be a good sign, up 24,000. Construction still did well despite the weather and retail. Now to what tyler was talking about. Even while the numbers were good, the Participation Rate, the percent of the population thats part of the work force, remains a dismal 63 , in part because of growing retirees. They drop out. Also, discouraged workers dropping out of the work force. The reason for this enduring the critical plight of the long term unemployed. They remain out of work for months, then drop out of the work force. Here are two measures i want to show you. The short term Unemployment Rate, those out of work less than 27 weeks, falling below the average, now 4. 2 . Thats pretty good. The long run Unemployment Rate, a full percentage point above the average, roughly a million americans who have been out of work longer than normal. Bill dudley today saying the low Participation Rate a sign of plenty of slack in the labor market and a reason to keep the feds foot on the accelerator. Thanks very much. Appreciate that. Sue . We turn to the kremlin and they pretty clearly and sarcastically rejected calls for talks between russia and the ukraine to be mediated by the west. A spokesman said the prospects quote, make us smile. Cnbcs Steve Sedgwick is in kiev again for us today, after scoring an exclusive english intervow with ukraines minister. Over to you. Reporter yeah, there has been inflammatory comments from the russians about how they see events going on in the crimea. Concern for the ethnic russian population there which makes up, it has to be said, around 60 of that population. I can tell you on that front i spoke to the deputy secretary general of the u. N. , i spoke to him specifically about Security Issues in the crimea. He said he is ready to send monitors down as soon as possible but of course, his own envoy has been prevented from doing exploratory work down on the peninsula. Elsewhere, i did speak to the Prime Minister today, mr. Yatsenyuk, and i spoke to him that his government isnt recognizing the reality of Russian Troops on the ground. A parliament in the Regional Assembly in the crimea that doesnt recognize the we are having a little bit of a problem with the feed from kiev, as you might imagine. There are technical issues on that. Steve sedgwick reporting on his exclusive interview from kiev for us tonight. Ty, back up to you. Thank you very much, sue. Lets go to dominic for a quick market flash. Take a look at shares of mexican tv broadcaster groupo televisa, down 4 near session lows after regulators declared the broadcaster quote, unquote, dominant in that broadcast market. This means its going to be required to share its infrastructure with third parties in an effort to spur competition so they have to open themselves up to more competitors. Thats putting pressure on that stock. Back to you. Thank you very much. Jobs, ukraine and president obamas response, and a big ruling on School Funding. This is an important one. The right and the left get to sound off. More power lunch in two minutes. [ female announcer ] who are we . We are the thinkers. The job jugglers. The up allnighters. And the ones who turn ideas into action. Weve made our passions our lifes work. We strive for the moments where we can say, i did it we are entrepreneurs who started it all. With a signature. Legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. And were here to help start yours. Welcome back to power lunch. Check out this market flash here with alpha natural resources, sitting near session lows right now, down about 10 on the day. Goldman sachs is downgradeing the company to a sell rating from a neutral. Goldman is citing a challenging outlook for coal prices. One of the bigger losers in todays session. Sue . Thanks very much. We turn once again to that february jobs report coming in much better than expected with nonfarm payrolls rising by 175,000 but the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 6. 7 from 6. 6 . More americans were out looking for jobs, so is this a sign that theres more underlying strength in the economy than perhaps we think . Here at post nine with me is mark morial, ceo of the National Urban league and former mayor of new orleans. He was also just appointed to president obamas Advisory Council on Financial Capability for young americans. Joining us from d. C. Is ron christie, ceo of Christie Strategies and former special assistant to president george w. Bush. Welcome, gentlemen. Congratulations, mr. Mayor. Congratulations. Its going to be an interesting journey for you, i think. Lets start with the unemployment report that we had this morning. It was stronger than expected. Does that indicate to you that perhaps parts of the economy are either stronger than we expected or Getting Better . The economys in suspended animation. Weve had consistent job creation but not significant enough to really bring down the problem of unemployment. What i would highlight as a huge problem are the 3. 8 million or almost 40 of the unemployed who are long term unemployed. This is a persistent problem which requires attention. Many of these people have skills, many of these folks were in the work force for a long, long time so within this jobs report, i dont call it good, i dont call it bad. I call it consistent with what we have seen and it means theres more steps that are needed. The feds got to continue and i think congress can and must do some things. Ron, you want to respond to that . Do you see some green shoots if you will in parts of the economy that perhaps we havent seen before . I do. Let me start by congratulating my friend again on his appointment. I think its a mixed bag here. I think there is some good here. You mentioned the nonfarm payrolls, about 175,000, little bit better than expected by most economists. On the other hand, if you look, the last three months, weve had about 129,000 jobs created a month which is not nearly enough to get us going, and what im looking at is the work force Participation Rate which remained at 63 . So i think its a mixed bag. I really wonder what the release of the beige report by the fed with the fact that weve had such terribly cold weather across most of the United States, whether weather really helped hinder the economy. We have to wait and see. Lets turn to the ukraine. Steve sedgwick, we obviously had technical issues with his feed before, but he did score an exclusive and first interview with ukraines new Prime Minister. Lets listen to that, then we can talk about it. There will be no referendum as it is absolutely and entirely [ inaudible ]. No one will recognize this referendum probably except probably syria or venezuela, and i want to be very clear, crimea was, is and will be an integral part of ukraine. No concessions, full stop. Ron, it does not look like things are coming back off the cliff fast enough for the International Community, certainly. How would you rate the president in terms of handling it . Some people say mr. Putin got the better of the u. S. Once again. Other people disagree and say this diplomacy is working well. What do you think . Well, i think the president s failure of leadership didnt just start with ukraine. I think we have seen what happened with benghazi. I think we looked at what happened with the use of chemical weapons in syria. I think president putin took the measure of the president and said i can do whatever i want, i can use the threat of force, the United States and european allies are not going to prod me to do anything using military force, and i think unfortunately, the president s in a bad spot. I would say, however, we can bring economic sanctions against russia. Their economy is very fragile and particularly if we cut off their gas exports going to europe, i think thats going to be really the only way we can bring pressure to bear with mr. Putin. What do you think . I think this is less about quote, the president and more about the nations response to a Foreign Policy crisis in the ukraine and this standoff with russia. What the president is doing is i think the correct approach, which is hes building a coalition in the International Community beginning with western europe to further isolate putin. Putin is cornered. No one has run to his side or taken up his position, and i think what you see is the president working with france, working with germany, working with our allies in europe, and i think expanding beyond that, i think to try to put a framework in place. What i see from the current ukrainian Prime Minister was some pretty tough talk. And tough talk which means that there are a large number of forces in the world that are standing up to Vladimir Putin and i think thats going to continue, and i think what does concern me is this idea that we used to defer, unite, consolidate behind the president when there was a Foreign Policy crisis. I think we do best to allow the president to be the voice of the nation as he tries to work out a diplomatic solution to a difficult crisis. Let me turn you to a domestic issue here. There was a decision this morning by the kansas Supreme Court, the state Supreme Court there, that says the Current School funding and the levels of public School Funding is inadequate and unconstitutional. Ron, they did lose a lot of tax revenue in that state when the governor put in much lower and the legislature approved much lower tax rates. What do you make of the decision today and what are the National Ramifications . I think the governor brownback was put in a very tough spot in kansas. I think the reflex of the republican position is hope we can spur Economic Development but when it comes to our children, i think this was a difficult case. I think the kansas Supreme Court was very clear on this. I dont think we will have a national ramification by this case but we always need to make sure we put our kids first. I dont want to criticize the governor but this was a loss for the kids of kansas. All right. I think you might agree with that. I agree, but i would also say this. Many states have provisions in their constitution which protect the integrity of Education Funding and require both adequacy and to some extent, equity.

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