Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160624 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch June 24, 2016

Session lows. The hunt for yield, the hunt for safety is alive and well. We have utilities seeing a bid today. Higher by. 6 . Of course, the big, big move today happening in the gold markets as well as the bond markets. Guy is with us for the next two hours. So what are your thoughts right now . Unbelievable. This is fascinating. I think this is historic stuff. Its not the time this is the time to sit back and evaluate what is going on. Were at the s p 500 off the all time high. We were here last week. What should you be doing today . You should be gathering questions for the weekend. What are the questions you should ask . Why are Interest Rates in germany negative . Why are ten year yields in the United States 1. 5 . What does brexit mean for global economies . Those are the questions you should be writing, emailing them to your adviceor. If he or she cannot answer the question, you have the wrong advis adviser. You dont have to do anything in terms of market participation, but you need to as the questions that everybody has on their mind but afraid to ask. A question in todays session, im sure investors have this people watching us, is this the dip you buy . You hear a lot of people get in buy the large cap stocks and dividend yielding stocks. Now is the time youre waiting for. Job number next week. You have a weekend to digest this thing. You have more countries probably get in line in terms of if youre germany and ten year yields are zero and a working class being bludgeoned by whats going on, at what point do they decide, listen, maybe its time for us to make a move. I dont notice. But those are the conversation thats are going on. If you think is the dip to buy, i would say you know what . Take a pause. First wave is usually the wrong wave. All right. Lets get out to josh brown who is also joining us from the New York Stock Exchange for the next couple blocks or so of the show. Josh, in terms of what to do, are you in agreement with guy that you just step aside and see how this shakes out . Or are new the camp to use this dip as a buying opportunity . Well, if youre long term investor, youre not stepping aside with your entire portfolio. If you are worried about this event, you probably have already taken risk off. So youre in a position that you can do something. The more pedestrian thing is seed up the rebalance. You have bonds doing their job right now. Maybe precious metals. Mae you have volatility hedge in place. That stuff is all flying right now. That gives you the opportunity to take some from there and add back to the things that are really getting hammered. Like what . Vgk, some of the large cap european etfs. Where i agree with guy is that first bounce may not be the only bounce or the final bounce. I think its really important for people to use buy limits on the more speculative stuff that they want to do. So make a list of your favorite names. Maybe amazon, facebook. They are not getting killed right now. Theyre not down enough. But if you got buy limit in im sorry. Is the euro stock 50, is that not speculative at this point in this environment . Well, speculative over one or two days, absolutely. But this is the Dow Jones Industrial average of the european continental stocks. There is no uk in there. It focuses on germany, france, spain, italy. You can own this index for a 10 or 15year hold. If you have an opportunity to bite down 7, 8, 9 that, is much better than buying it at the highs. Its down 12 . Germany is 9. 5 . I say step away, i dont want there to be any ambiguity. Im not saying pull your money out of the market. Im not suggesting. That im saying dont make any ration decision onz a friday. This is the day that you need to write down the questions that you have and ask those questions and make sure theyre answered. Guys, stay right. There we want to get more on the fallout following that historic brexit vote. Michelle is live in london. Michelle . Great points. There is so many questions about the future of europe as a whole after this vote in the uk. Historic and water shed vote for the United Kingdom. Acknowledges such by angela merkel, the most powerful leader in germany. She came out and said that she deeply greted the brexit vote and she acknowledged it was a setback to european integration. Handled by media out of germany found a document they say they reported on eight pages labelled the german strategy regarding brexit. What should they do now related to the uk s . The suggestion is they shouldnt get too much Market Access because they dont want to incentivize movement in italy and spain, things that you guys were just talking about. And those issues raise a lot of questions about european stocks which many of our viewers own because its been the place to be because of what the ecb is doing. So what should you do . Lets bring in dan morris, Senior Investment strategist g to you have here. Explain one thing to me. This was supposed to be catastrophic for the United Kingdom. The uk is down 3 today. Italy is down 12 . To me, its the eu that looks like the losers here. Explain that. I think the first thing to keep in mind is a lot of the benefits for equity markets in the uk are front loaded. You have the currency depreciation. You think about benefits to rev ne revenues. The vote will be longer on, who knows, maybe two years. That is the first thing to explain why the ftse is not down as much as you expect. I think what youre seeing on the continent with italy and spain, the nextcontagion. I think thats what people are worried about. We have an election in spain this weekend. You have referendum in italy in october f thing goes further off the rails, thats where its going to happen next. So im not wrong to look at the falls and think that maybe people are worried about a threat to the euro . Exactly. Thats how you think this would be trans transmitted out and becoming a europe problem and then to a global problem. That would be the path. I think at least in our view we dont expect that to be what happens, however. So does that mean 12 decline in italy is a buy or at least a trade . A one day move like that can sometimes does it seem to be force. It does seem to be an overreaction us to. I think if you imagine what the perspective might be like in spain, if you were trying to determine how you were going to vote this weekend, if you see what is happening in your own stock market, perhaps that gives you pause f anything, it encourages the vote more on the conservative side, more stable government and government that is more pro e. U. As i mentioned at the top, we have a lot of viewers in the United States, theyre dollar buyers. They live in dollars. They earn money in dollars. But they bought european stocks because there is the differential between the Central Banks. It was assumed the u. S. Was going to raise. And the ecb was going to ease and ease and ease. They bought european stocks. So they stay in those stocks and should they hedge the occur eni i think they should stay and they should be looking to add. At some point, not necessarily today. This is going to take a while to play out. We still think on a relative basis, europe looks more attractive than the u. S. Its not like japan were really all the gains you got in the equity market is because of the currency. You had to hedge that. The opportunity is europe is partial lit currency. The euro weakens, thats fine. The benefit comes you have low marge ninz europe relative to the u. S. You have potential for Earnings Growth and thats going to drive the market. So its not the currency you probably dont need to hedge zblichlt so you dont want to you dont have to worry about the euro weakening much more . No. We dont think it it s. Gois goo to pair parody. We know were in extraordinary times in terms of Monetary Policy. You should see it appreciate. Theyre trying to time when that is going to happen. Thank you for joining us in london on this historic day. Back to you. All right. Thank you. Lets take a closer look back here at the New York Stock Exchange. The reaction to the surprising brexit vote last night. Here in the United States, the major averages are near the lows of the session. But nowhere near the kinds of declines we saw on the continent this morning nor in japan overnight which was down about 9 . The dow is down 3 right now. The nasdaq is down 3. 8 . And the s p 500 is down 3 right now. Bob pisani is joining us now along with josh brown. You wonder how were going to do rest of the afternoon here. We have the russell rebalancing as well and kind of reacting to what happened overnight, obviously. It is not happening the way you would thichlt were stuck at 2050. How many times have we been sitting here in the last year . That hasnt changed much. Banks are down notably. Even defensive names like health care, you thought they may do better. Theyre doing theyre off today generally. So the defensive group isnt necessarily helping a lot overall. We do have nice Interest Rate sensitive groups. I guess the reits are doing better, that is not a surprise. Telecom stocks are doing better. But overall, we got a little bit of a problem today, bill. This russell rebalancing is a little bit of a fly in the ointment. This is a once a year rebalancing we get. Normal lishgs its huge volume. The biggest volume day of the year. Normally it doesnt move prices. The problem is we dont know how that closed that interaction is going to affect people who are trying to sell at the close and if theyre interested in lightening up for the weekend. Its a huge deal overall. There are three things i kip hearing from traders. Number one, at the economic slowdown, could reduce capital investments. Thats major issue. The stronger dollar can hurt earnings for energy and materials and industrials. And then Lower Consumer discretionary spend kog hurt the Consumer Discretionary group. As for the exposure overseas, the one thing i absolutely can see is the companies that have big exposure outside the u. S. Are already reducing their exposure. So look here. The s p 500 is expected to drop 2. 8 for earnings in the second quarter. This is the fifth quarter decline. Those that have more of their sales outside the United States already are saying their earnings are going to be hurt more than those who have a majority inside the United States. The concern here is that that might accelerate overall. So we have a number of real x factors sitting around waiting on us. My big concern is that compression in the earnings multiple. I think its hard to argue expand the earnings multiple when earnings are shrinking. Yeah. And, yet, we found a way to do it. We did that recently. Take a look at the splv. This is an etf that tracks the low volatility Standard Poors 500 index. Its down less than a third of what the major average, about 1. 25 . And really interestingly, found support right at this 50day moving average. This is something that happened over and over and over again. We saw it in the august lows. We saw it in the february lows. They keep coming back to the stocks. And if you think were talking now recession in the European Union and the u. S. , you have to be thinking about lower rates for bonds and what does that push investors ultimately to do . Not the next day, but eventually. That could be a low volatility name. I like that, too. But it has essentially consumer names in it, by and large theyre the ones that are least volati volatile. The first one to turn green was altria. That will never be the case as long as we got them in these types of moments. Then you saw the telecoms turn and utilities up on the day. They keep coming back to the names. The boring utilities that nobody likes to buy. Thats for sure. All right. Stick around, guys. Uk votes to leave the eu. We all are asking, who could be next . A look at the countries that may follow britains lead. And throughout our program, youre going to be hearing from every day britains sounding off on this historic vote like right now. This morning we have actually left the eu. We should have an opportunity to vote again because i see so many things differently. Things diffe. Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 59. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. They found out whos been who . Cking into our network. Guess. I dont know, some kids in a basement . You watch too many movies. Who . A Small Business in china. A business . They work nine to five. They take lunch hours. Like a job . Like a job. We tracked them. How did we do that . We have some new guys defending our network. New guys . Well, theyre not that new. Theyve been defending things for a long time. [ digital typewriting ] its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 59. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. The banks getting hit hard following the brexit vote. The bank index is down of 6 . Check out the major financials getting crushed. Morgan stanley is looking at a 10 loss right now. Citigroup down by 8. 4 . Goldman sachs is feeling the pain. The president of cio mendian capital advisors. They own citi, bank of america and wells fargo. At this point, fed funds futures are not only saying that a rate hike is off the table, but theyre also factoring in the possibility of a rate cut. What does that do to the yield curve and the outlook for the banks to hold . Its always tough when they revalue things in a shock situation like today. Clearly, weve seen very large moves in the treasuries. And really whats next is what Central Banks do around the world. Are they going to chase the uk lower or let the uk do it by itself . I think Central Bank Action is important. The u. S. Economy is doing fine. Its going aalong. Well see inflation eventually. This clearly takes your eye off the table. But i think this economy is doing fine and will muddle along. I think there still an issue with jobs. I think, you know, not enough qualified people out there. I think there is Wage Inflation this year. The bank onz a one day move like this i get beating the bank thats have direct exposure. But even that is hard to quantify. So i think its shoot first, ask questions later. A lot of people are asking with this big decline today, should i step in and buy something . Is it cheaper right now . You and i have talked in the past about the regionals. You pounded the table for those. Are those the better buy now because they dont have the exposure to the uncertainty that is brexit right now . Well, theyre simpler. You know, we know they dont have the direct exposure and we always talked about buying in areas of the country where there is really good Economic Growth. I particularly love the southeast. There is a lot of good things still going on that have nothing to do directly with whats going on in the uk. So you know, i like banks in the carolinas. I like banks in florida. There are really good dem grfk things going on. Panama canal widening is providing a lot of business. I focus on smaller. I focus on bank thats could get bought or bank thats could do smart deals. Thats how you create value. Even with bade yield curve, company thats merge and cut costs can create value in this environment. It has nothing to do with Interest Rates. Its josh brown. Is it going too far to ask you to take a look at the Texas Regional banks being much worse than the overall market on a day where oil is not necessarily much worse than it normally is on a down day and say that should we be thinking about the possibility of a contentious fight in texas over independence . Are we taking a leap too far today . The markets seem to want to have that conversation. I think the market is extrapolating a dollar that is a lot stronger and that is bad for texas banks. So i think thats really where its going. I think everybody kind of got upside down. A lot of people bought texas banks recently. The chart looks fantastic. A lot of people bought the big financials recently thinking i was going to remain. People are upside down. Im not ready to step into texas banks yet. Its not just energy prices. There are less people moving there. If you buy a bank in texas, buy one focused on dallas. That will be maybe next year. Thank you. You know, what we have not talked about yet, european banks which are absolutely getting crushed today. Take a look at the deutsche. Credit suisse, barclays, rbs. They all rallied hard into the brexit vote and are now giving back the gains. The index is down 14 . Its not a small its down 16 today. But in context, heres a stock thats been grinding lower now for quite some time. You have to give kudos to brian kelly. Hes been pointing it out. Is it a canary in the coal mine, i have no idea. I thought the problem was the exposure to the crude market. Guess what . Crude doubled in price. So there is clearly Something Else going on. There is not a one day move in banks. Yes this one day move is lousy. Goldman sachs top out last june around 215. Morgan stanley at 40. The banks have been going down for a year now. Its not a one day thing at all. Theyre tl are clearly structural things going on with United States banks as well. What did you think about his argument about the regional banks . Simpler to understand given that two year yield right now is down to 0. 6 and change . I think you have to talk about the regional banks the way we fwatalk about pharma and biotech. Probably a mis

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