Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2016

In the positive by 1. 9, a gain of more than 4 , 46. 65. We are not close to 50 yet, but lets see. Investors are selling treasuries. The yield on the benchmark 10year note hitting its highest level since the end of june. Look at that cracking a whopping 1. 5 . Bob pisani on the nyse floor with more on whats moving the markets. It doesnt get much better as this, michelle. Steady as she goes, just off the highs for the day. Look at the dow you want to look at 18,312, thats the closing high. Well above that right now. Lets put up some key metrics today because this is about as good as it gets if youre interested in stocks. Dow at a new high, crudes popping, gold is down. This is the fourth day in a row gold is down. And the dollar index has basically been flat. The 10year up just a little but not a lot. This is about as good as it gets for stock investors overall. You must think there are tons of new highs out there. There are some but not a lot. The dow is a price weighted index so bigger names tend to push around a little bit. Cisco hitting a new high. Johnson johnson, ge, proctor gamble, lets not quibble about half a percent or so. A number of big names on the dow are way, way far from new highs. Some are very high priced names. Theres the ftse 100, as you can see. Thats a sector most people thought would not be popping today. And would not be up. This is the Key International groups, International Stocks in the uk, thats unexpected thing thats happened overall. Weve seen some breakouts as well in other groups like the emerging market etf or the eem thats also breaking out to a 0 10month high. I want to get back to my point, a lot of stocks goldman one of the higher priced stocks, boeing also one of the higher priced stocks, 13 off the highs and boeing has been bucking most of the Aerospace Stocks that are sitting at new highs. Melissa, back to you. Thank you very much, bob pisani. Amazon hitting alltime highs in its Second Annual prime day. The online retailer offering deals on 100,000 products for its prime members. Take a look at shares i mentioned new high, but we did back off that high. Shares are down by about 0. 5 right now. Courtney reagan has the latest on prime day. Hi, melissa. Amazons deals are more appe appealing than last years which launched primedayfail on social media. Still 11 hours left to go for shoppers. In terms of consumer dollars spent prime day still way behind black friday. Last years prime day generated between 375 and 400 million in sales. And says this year that figure could double. Well, amazon hopes to use the deal day to gain new prime members, everyone else is doing what they can to compete. There is a measurable spillover effect. Ecommerce Advertising Firm hook logic tells cnbc retailers and its network seeing traffic up as much as three times the average for a typical day in july. But more importantly convergence or traffic that actually makes the purchase is up 21 over a typical tuesday. Slice Intelligence Data which comes from 4 million shoppers online receipts shows walmart could also get a boost. On amazons prime day last year walmart generated 3. 5 times the average daily revenue for july by touting no gimmicks with its sale prices. This year walmart is offering Free Shipping with no minimum purchase for the entire week and you dont have to be a member of anything to get that. Brian, back to you. Courtney, thank you very much. Prime day taking its place, guys, just above arbor day on list of important holidays now. Oh, come on. But invented holidays its pretty hot. Its super hot. I love the competition that walmart fights back. I think thats great. Thats the way its supposed to work. Think of the margins for these guys, compressed. What does it mean for shopko . Sorry, just got back from wisconsin. Walmart has been the better stock this year, its up about 19 , amazon up 12 . You could buy both these stocks, but i dont think that would make for a very interesting segment. So if you had to buy just one, which of those names is the best for your dollar. Making the case a longtime walmart shareholder, kevin, ill begin with you because we love to make these compete. But heres theres a huge difference between amazon and walmart. Amazon is at an alltime high. Walmart is well off its alltime high of 88 last year. Why do you still see value in walmart stock . All right. Well, i think its easier to make the case from a valuation perspective for walmart because you really dont need all that much to get the stock from valuation perspective to higher levels. If you got Something Like 2 or 3 or 4 Revenue Growth out of walmart and little improvement in the margin it would go a long way to get that stock back up towards 100 with a whole lot more beyond that. If you do the same thing for amazon, which by the way i think amazon is a fantastic business, you go and look at the valuation metrics, try to run whatever kind of cash flow model or whatever you want to run. You have to have some very lofty assumptions about growth and margins to make that math work. So for our money the way we look at it even though were very fond of amazons business, we think the Valuation Case is much better for walmart than it is for amazon. All right. Kevin and channing, sit tight, because while those Companies Sell a lot of stuff, the one thing they do not sell are bonds. But we have a news alert in the bond market where bonds are being put up for auction. Well get back to our debate in just a second. Rick santelli, professor, how did the 10year auction go . Well, i think Everybody Needs to hold their nose on this one. We gave this one a dminus, dogminus for demand straight up and shares a lot with yesterdays very weak 3year note auction youll see in a minute. The yield of these 9year 10month notes because this is the second reopening of this issue is 1. 516. Whats notable about it is the high yield in market was 1. 151. We tailed badly. 2. 33 bid to cover lowest since march of 09. Over seven years. Does that rhyme with yesterdays 3year . It certainly does. 64 is the ten auction average for indirects. This was 54. 3 weakest since january of 2015. And directs were on the light side at 7. 9, 7. 2 last auction. You have to go back about ten to get another low one. That was the good news 37. 7 of this go to primary dealers. Good luck with that. So i guess in the end heres what i hear, they didnt like threes, they didnt like tens. Thats what a 14 basis point, 15 basis point concession meaning yields have popped that much since fridays postemployment close. Tomorrow will be 30s and many on this floor thought wed get a good reption for the juicier yields. And that yield of 1. 516, the Second Lowest on record. The lowest on record of course was from july of 2012. That was around 1. 459. Many were betting we would challenge that. They were wrong. Back to you. Rick, thank you. Now lets get back to our walmart v. Amazon debate. Channing, i can run through the numbers. Im sure melissa has them on the top of her head because they talk about them all the time. 24 times pricetobook, three times price to sale, so far above any other retailer its ridiculous, why dont traditional valuation metrics seem to matter at all with amazon . Its a great point. And people have really misunderstood amazon. If you look at the last decade, amazon has been investigating in infrastructure and warehouses and their logistics. Theyve been investing in prime, web services. And what you saw last year is youre finally starting to see that bear fruit. And we expect that youre going to see earnings of 7 this year. We see 20 in earnings by 18. And then by 2020 this company could be earning 40 a share in earnings. So we think theres a big opportunity there. And how do you get there . Thats the big question a lot of people have. We assume about 275 billion, 300 billion in 2020. Apply a 10 to 13 operating margin on that, divide by share count and give it a multiple of 20, 25, 30, and the valuation doesnt seem that ridiculous. This is a company that is perfectly position ed they are the leader in north america and by far the biggest leader in cloud services. The earnings trajectory for this company is absolutely tremendous for the next five to ten years. And no one can match them. So i think what investors are underappreciating is the earnings power thats just now beginning for this company. Kevin, toipt go back to walmart and your sort of explanation of the valuation here. When you take a look at a pricetoearnings multiple, yeah, hands down walmart looks like the better buy compared to amazon. But what are you paying 16 times current p e for at this point . Because for this year the street consensus numbers are for negative growth, sales growth, and negative eps growth, and only marginal upside in the next year. I think we lost kevin. He didnt want to answer. Thats it. Hes shopping on amazon prime day right now instead of being on television with us. Another good point about, when you look at walmart, theyre really a gdp grower. And theyve been fumbling around with their strategy for many, many years, today look at what walmarts doing is defensive. What amazon is doing is going out and try to get 400 to 500,000 new prime subscribers that will help Revenue Growth for the coming years. Walmarts a one day this is defensive trying to protect a Little Market share. But they dont have a strategy. Secondly, if you look at what amazons doing internationally, what theyre doing in india, they can take this Business Model and move this to india. They can move it to emerging markets. Think about emerging market consumers, they dont follow the big box retailer concept. They have moved straight to ecommerce. Look at alibaba. So amazon is very well positioned for International Growth. And that, too, we dont think is in the stock. International grew 26 year over year last quarter. We think its just the beginning of International Growth there. All right. Channing and, kevin, if youre out there somewhere, hope hes all right. Jamie dimon says too many people are not getting a fair opportunity to get ahead. What hes doing to change that on power lunch when we return. Welcome back to power lunch everybody. Jamie dimon has written a New York Times oped and was published today about how he plans to help the economy and boost employment for the next generation. He starts by announcing a pay increase over the next three years for at least 18,000 employees. Lets bring in steve oddland, ceo of the committee for Economic Development and former ceo of office depot and auto zone. Steve, welcome, good to have you with us. It seems to me this is the way the system ought to work, where you have businesses making independent decisions about how to compensate their employees and at what level rather than having it imposed from above. Do you agree or disagree . No, i think thats exactly right, tyler. I think the situation follows the financial crisis where the banks let a lot of people go and then they held wages down for a long period of time. Now you see a systemic increase in wages. Were up about 2. 5 most recently. And the labor market is tightening a little bit. So im not surprised jamie is making this move. I think its a good move for them. Remember its not a lot of money for them. Its only about 0. 2 for their total sga. It helps retention, it helps them attract more educated and more skilled people. You know, theyre paying as little as 10 an hour for some of these Customer Service and these teller positions. And those are not unskilled positions. So it makes a lot of sense. But i think the important thing here is jamie said in that piece that this is not a blanket thing for all companies that every company should do the right thing for their company. And i think in this case we see that government intrusion was not necessary to make this happen but Companies Like j. P. Morgan and walmart before that are taking independent actions that are right for their companies and their employees. Why havent more companies done it . Yeah, well, i think that, you know, some companies needed to do it. You saw walmart take a billiondollar hit to their labor costs by raising you know, theyve got pressure from the shareholders and owners if theyre private not to do it, but i think as the labor markets tighten theyve got competition out there for this kind of employee. They also have expanded their training, which i think is really key because right now a lot of people are coming out without the proper training. And as we know Customer Service positions in particular need specialized training. So hes expanding that as well. Maybe there was no official law that they had to do this, but you dont think theres any political pressure here . Almost anybody who becomes the next president of the United States has campaigned on hating the banks. Yeah, well. And jamie dimon has suffered in the past for complaining about regulation, et cetera. I mean, the cynic out there could read this and say hes trying to curry favor here by saying hes raising his minimum wage. No, its an excellent point. And theyve been under pressure for a long time. The banks have been the whipping boy i think since 2007 at least. But, look, is it politically driven, it seems to me if it was youd wait until the new president was in rather than doing beforehand. I think its the right move. I think jamie was positioned in a way that was, you know, good for his company and good for his people. I think it was optimistic. But i really like the fact he said, look, this is the right thing for j. P. Morgan and every companys got to make the right decision for them. As i was thinking about this, its largely directed at Customer Service representatives and tellers as those are some of the lower people in their pay sort of spectrum. But between now and 2022, i suspect theyll be even fewer tellers working at banks as they automate more and more. So this may end up costing them really even less than you described, which isnt all that much. Youre probably right. And this has been happening over time. I think more and more banking is moving online. Thats what im saying, im not sure how many positions are really at going to be at 10 an hour or what theyre talking about raising it a couple dollars an hour. So it doesnt cost him that much, but i think its indicative of the fact theyre trying to make moves and hes trying to put, you know, a big bow on it. Which i would too, but look, there arent a lot of jobs that are really truly at minimum wage. Mostly in the Restaurant Industry and even thats moving today. So there arent a lot here anymore. Steve, thanks for your help today. Appreciate it. Good to see you. China just lost a major battle over the South China Sea, at least in court in the hague. Why the ruling could have a Lasting Impact around the globe. And as we head to break, take a look at the biggest dow movers this hour. Power back in two minutes. Real is touching a ray. Amazing is moving like one. Real is making new friends. Amazing is getting this close. Real is an animal rescue. Amazing is over twentyseven thousand of them. Theres only one place where real and amazing live. Book a seaworld vacation package and eat free. Hello prashant bhuyan. Cofounder of the Fintech Services startup. Hello watson. Your analysis of social media and conversations on various trading floors, helps us uncover insights. Insights that help investors predict market closes, well before markets close. You know, your analysis has helped us improve our predictive accuracy by over 500 . 550. 2, to be precise, but we can always do better. I like your attitude watson. Rebecca barlow was running a Nanny Company when her husband of 13 years suddenly passed away, leaving her to manage his failing water damage business, acme flood. She rebuilt the company from scratch which is now grossing more than 2 million a year. For more watch your business sunday mornings on msnbc. Brought to you by american express. Open. Welcome back. China lost a major court battle today related to territories in the South China Sea. Seema mody is here with the latest. Really a historic moment, michelle. The South China Sea dispute for years has been a source of anxiety. And now the United States over the past couple of months have been getting involved to protect the philippines, american ally. The concern by the International Tribune which rejected china eastertorial claims in the South China Sea will result in beijing expanding military presence around these 250 islands which experts say would dramatically increase the chance of an unintended conflict. But the former National Security Council Member james keith telling me china has to walk a fine line, exert a powerful stance in order to alleviate concerns domestically but not rock the boat too much on the international stage. It does have two important events coming up this fall, the g20 summit hosted in china and the sdr inclusion in october where its widely believed chinas currency will be officially added to the ims basket. Thats been a huge economic goal for the chinese leadership. The other topic thats been spoken about today is whether this geopolitical event will impact chinas Economic Policy. In order to preserve chinas sense of nationalism china will perhaps try to spin the news to show its citizens that its still supporting a sense of sovereignty in the South China Sea but its still unlikely china will use Economic Policy to protest this ruling. Unless of course a large conflict does erupt. On that note, a lot of Economic Data coming ou

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