Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160727 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 27, 2016

And your money sound advice. Aa hard to believe, tyler, all over the next two hours. All of them are going to be here and more. Welcome everybody. Im tyler mathisen. Earnings a big driver for the markets this hour. We are in the heart of earnings season. And heres your stat of the day of the more than 200 s p 500 Companies Posted results so far this season, 72 of them have beaten on the bottom line. And this hour we will shine the spotlight on the mother ship, comcast, the owner of cnbc. Well also talk about coke and t tmobile. Thank you, tyler. Im Michelle Carusocabrera coming to you live from the Wells Fargo Center in philadelphia. Len Lenny Kravitz has just gotten off the stage. Donald trump drawn away from the dnc, said in a News Conference today that he said he hopes russia finds Hillary Clintons missing emails. Were going to get the Clinton Campaign reaction minutes from now. And set the stage for a big night here in the city of brotherly love. If not for donald trump, wed probably be talking about this here and what happened last night. The Clinton Campaign got good headlines, head the ticket, Hillary Clintons historic moment. Usa today, first woman. But now were talking about donald trump again. And her emails. Secretary clintons running mate, tim kaine, is on the docket tonight, plus president obama as well. So a lot of headliners, also Vice President biden and former new york city mayor Michael Bloomberg will all address the crowd here at the Wells Fargo Center. A lot coming up in the show, guys, but back to you, brian and tyler. Michelle, thank you. Were going to talk more about trumps comments about the 30,000 missing emails, some powerful words. Well get to those in a bit. As you might have discerned a jam packed two hours of tv coming your way. We begin with a developing story about a possible beer deal between sab miller and inbev, because there may not be a deal, dom chu. It may be on pause right now. The latest headlines in the big megamerger in beer, the biggest in history, hit that pause button. Sapmiller is halting work on the logistics of being bought by anheuserbusch inbev, this comes of course on the heels of inbev raising its bid to buy sabmiller by one british pound to 45 pounds, thats about 59 a share. That increased bid was being put forth in response to concerns that the decline in the value of the british currency after brexit was unfairly hurting sabmiller shareholders. Now, the new shares also shares of mulson coors as well. In order to obtain u. S. Antitrust approval for this big deal to happen, the combined company would hypothetically have to shed its interest in a u. S. Joint venture called miller coors, which is responsible for brewing and distributing all of the miller and coors products in the United States as well as other smaller labels. Sabmiller right now owns 58 of that. It would likely sell its interest to its partner molson coors, bringing full control to that denverbased colorado brewer here. The halt in the Merger Integration work has increased risks around all of these moving parts though the halt is being viewed by some, guys, as a negotiating tactic to angle for a potentially higher bid from a. B. Inbev. Weve reached out for comment neither has gotten back to us. Well bring more when they do. But the shares of both of those guys moving on this news. One thing thats interesting here and the reason the currency has become so much in the focus here is this was an all cash deal. There was no stop. Well, there was a contingency. You could choose one of two options. You could take an allcash deal or a hybrid. Oh. I didnt know that. I thought it was all cash. So theres multiple components to this particular deal, but the real interesting part about this is whether or not they actually do because we thought we had a done deal in this whole situation. Sure did. And all of this of course has to do with the distribution rights, all of these beer labels that are owned and distributed around the world by different players and different partners just because you see a label on there doesnt mean its necessarily made by that company. Remember, bill gross has recommended, even though hes thought of as a bond guy, buying some equities in advance of this deal. So were going to get him on later today. Well talk about the fed, but were also going to ask him if hes changing his position recommending any of these equities. Sabmiller has depository receipts that trade thinly here in the u. S. They didnt move as much on the deal with this particular bit of news. Well see if that does happen when things kick off for trading tomorrow in london, guys. We were going to ask you about earnings. Not sure we have time for that. Meantime we are going to Steve Liesman as we have about 55 minutes until we hear from the fed. Will we get a surprise rate hike . Take it away. Tyler, sorry to burst the bubble, but little chance of a rate hike today, but some nervousness and chatter. The u. S. Central bank could raise the possibility of a september surprise creating Downside Risk to bonds and stocks here. Now, thats not the conventional wisdom. Let me remind you what that is. The cnbc fed survey sees the next hike coming on average in december. And just one rate hike this year. And average funds rate for 2016 of just 0. 6 . So not a lot of hiking expected. Contrarians though are warning that the market may have underpriced the chance of a september hike and that the fed could introduce that risk to give itself the option to raise rates. The reason is want to avoid a sharp lurch in prices if there were indeed a hike in september. So give time to adjust. The recent sharp decline in bond yields and rise in stock prices does raise the stakes though on getting the fed wrong here. Let me give you some keys to the fed. One is how much it upgrades the Economic Outlook today. Since the last statement in june, Growth Prospects have brightened as has the jobs picture, but the inflation outlook remains murky. Not really pushing the fed towards higher rates necessarily. Second, will the fed continue to quote unquote, closely monitor concern over the postbrexit fallout on global economies, or signal less worry . I want to tell you how wonky people get here. Theyre wondering whether they drop the word closely from closely monitoring. And that signals thus concern. That, folks, is advanced fed speak and analysis. Another question, does Kansas City Fed president ester joiyce resume her ways . And is she joined by others want to hike rates. Finally, what role does the election play here . The fed will never say this, but if business contacts are telling them the president ial election creates economic uncertainty, the fed could choose given another reason to hold off until ses before acting. My take is i think the fed stays the course here. Its going to strive for neutrality. It doesnt want to introduce any new risks right now. Why . The data from brexit is not in yet and the fed lost some credibility in the spring when it hinted of a possible hike this summer that of course never came to pass. Finally, most of the fed speak, which theres plenty of by the way, it hasnt leaned against market pricing. So the risk is there, but i think, guys, its minimal for hinting at a september surprise. All right. Steve liesman, steve, stick around. Scott minerd is going to join ugh, with guggenheim partners, got about 240 billion under management. Scott, we talked about this just on air, but i want to show viewers, since the last fed rate hike which was in december of last year, look at the returns we have seen across a variety of Asset Classes. The dow up 6 . Oil up 15 . Gold up 25 . And the 10year yield has gone down by 30 . In other words, bond prices have gone up. That benefits mortgage holders. If you bought Asset Classes at the fed hike in december, you probably made money. Why do so many people seem to fear the fed . Brian, its the conventional wisdom, right . If the fed starts to raise rates, thats going to be bad for stocks, that means bond prices are going to go down. People think that gold will go down in price. And playing with conventional wisdom has proven to be an unprofitable bet. Because i just cant buy and youll forgive me, sounds like you agree, i cant buy the premise if fed raises rates by a quarter point everybody will selleckties, sell bonds. Because that implies the money is going under the mattress. Right. And, look, the thing everybody has missed here as the fed and other Central Banks around the world have had to print money that asset prices are going up. And people have been too preoccupied with the u. S. Federal reserve. Really what we need to be looking at is whats going on in europe and whats going on in japan. You can question whether those movements tied to the way things i dont think theyre directly tied, but theyve done well. No, but my question is in the case of equities is the move fueled by the fed. Oh, absolutely. Its liquidity driven. Its all liquidity driven. Recently ive come out and said stocks will go up another 10 to 15 this year. Its not liquidity at the fed, its liquidity at the ecb and around the world, right. And there are a couple of big the japanese bank, the ecb, the british bank, theyre all meeting in the next few days, weeks. Right. And, you know, if theres any sign of any kind of slowdown in europe or in japan, which it seems slowdown is already there, these Central Banks are going to have to act aggressively to pump more. They are. Japan is undergoing a stimulus plan, yet another one. Thats a physical stimulus plan. Theyre literally throwing money at the problem. The ecb in the same way. Does that mean you at guggenheim are buying japanese equities, european equities . Are you going to ride their fed tails like many people did here . Well, in most of our clients are focused domestically. So what were trying to do is ride the tail of these European Central bank, the bank of japan and look for places where asset prices are going to go up. But if youre going to go overseas, brian, you got to play for beta. And betas in the emerging markets. What does that mean . Well, look, if youre going to get a surge in asset prices because of liquidity, then you want to focus at the place where youre going to get the highest return for every dollar bet. Give us an example. Well, right now i think chile looks really well. Brazil has done well. Im a little hesitant to jump on brazil again. Were already invested in brazil. But, you know, for people who havent committed money yet, chile looks interesting, and russia looks very interesting, despite what donald trump says or other people say. Russia. Russian equities. Thats right. Bonds . U. S. Bonds at these yields, what do you do . A lot of people got them. I think you got to get longer. I think buying Long Duration municipals, Long Duration treasuries are a good bet. But, tyler, the other place, if im right and were going to see risk assets go up in price, high yield bonds and bank loans should do well too. High yield bonds, bank loans, chile. S p higher. And russia. 10 to 15 . From here. Some real world advice. Right now lets get back to michelle live at the dnc in fill dell if with what is coming up on tap next. Michelle. Well, as youve heard, brian, donald trump once again seizing the spotlight today challenging Russian Hackers to find Hillary Clintons missing emails. Well ask Hillary Clintons press secretary what he thinks about that next here on power lunch. Dont move. Oh watson, your japanese is very good. Thank you. speaking japanese exactly. I can understand nuance, context and idiom in seven languages to help companies all over the world with everything from retail solutions, to banking, to Cyber Security. speaking japanese will your business be ready when growth presents itself . American express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. Find out how American Express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open. Com. A lot of fun. Find out how American Express cards and services its exciting. Its exciting. male 1 you get to explore, you get to see things that people dont get to see or do. announcer at truecar, we believe buying a car should be as fun as driving one, so well help you find the car you want and show you what others paid for it. male 2 once truecar came into the picture, thatsthats where i go now. It was just such a quick, easy experience that i just go back to them. announcer discover for yourself how easy carbuying can be with truecar. Welcome back to power lunch coming to you live from philadelphia. Donald trump once again trying to take the spotlight to challenge Russian Hackers to find Hillary Clintons missing emails. John harwood is on the floor with that story. John. Michelle, last night we heard from president clinton about his wife. Tonight well hear from president obama. But that appearance by the current commander in chief has new drama because of this grow ing controversy over drumgzs financial and policy relationship with Vladimir Putin. Today in a press conference he said he hopes russia could get his hands on missing state department emails. Russia, if youre listening, i hope youre able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. Lets see if that happens. Now, i spoke to clinton policy chief Jake Sullivan after that statement. He said this has to be the first time a major Party President ial candidate has actively encouraged a foreign power to conduct espionage on a political opponent. This has gone from being a curiosity or matter of politics to a National Security issue. And in fact this statement seemed to be too much even for Speaker Paul Ryan whose aide put out a statement saying Vladimir Putin is a devious thug, russias a global menace and they should stay out of this election. Dont know if speakers on the stage behind me tonight, tim kaine, her running mate, Vice President biden, or president obama are going to mention this, but we do know that this controversy is not going away, michelle. No, its not, john, thank you so much. John harwood. Here to react more, Hillary Clintons press secretary brian fallon, brian, good to have you here. Thanks for having me. Anything more you want to add to Jake Sullivans statement and what he said to john harwood . Well, theres been a pattern lately over the last several weeks of donald trump making mysterious, strange comments suggesting his allegiance to Vladimir Putin, his admiration for Vladimir Putin. Just last week we saw a change made to the republican platform at their convention in cleveland where they softened language taking out a provision that was sort of taking a hard stance against russia with respect to ukraine. And then later in the week you heard donald trump give an interview to New York Times where he said we might abandon our Eastern European allies and not uphold our commitments to nato, which is something that would send shudders down the spines of our eastern allies living in the shadow of putins influence in that region. This is though perhaps the worst of all the comments that hes made to date openly suggesting that a foreign country should come in and conduct Cyber Espionage against any u. S. Interest is whatever happened to politics stopping at the waters edge . I think we agree with the sentiments from speaker ryan suggesting that all americans should be upset about the idea russia is trying to illegally commit espionage against any u. S. Interests. This is not a political issue, its now a National Security issue and donald trump is on the completely wrong side. Is it frustrating however that he has managed to take over the news cycle all over again . Were not talking about what happened last night. Were not previewing whats coming up tonight. Were now talking about him and emails again. Actually, i think it fits right into the topic of conversation at tonights convention because the theme of tonights Convention Appearance from our speakers was always going to be about Foreign Policy, what it takes to be a steady commander in chief and why donald trump is an unacceptable candidate for Higher Office when it comes to having his finger on the button and access to the nuclear codes. This is somebody who suggested hed be happy to see more countries obtain access to nuclear weapons. Hes somebody urged praise and admiring comments about International Strong men like kim jongun and Vladimir Putin. And alienated our allies across europe including in the uk. I think this is just another display as to why donald trump is dangerous and unfit temperamentally to be president of the United States. Do you think its going to hur

© 2025 Vimarsana