Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20160623 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley June 23, 2016

Hand hands and twilio is trading higher, and making it the biggest gain of the year, and a lot more that the u. S. Tech in the past 12 months, and meanwhile, a first on cnbc interview with the companys ceo jeff lawson coming up later on in the hour. The top story, the voters in the uk are heading to the polls to decide if the country should stay or leave the european union, and the outcome is expected to have far reaching consequences in the Financial Markets overseas and at home. Over to kayla standing by with the latest. Kayla. Carl, we are more than halfway through the polling day here in the uk, and of course, many of the undecided voters will depend on the turnout of this evening in this weather, but the financial industryre in the financial district here in london is dealing with the day of heavy volume on the trading side, and they are bracing for the impact of what happens when those results come in overnight as sarah mentioned, and coming in 12 30 a. M. , and 1 00 a. M. Here in london and the industry has a lot at stake. It is the source and the benefactor of much Foreign Direct Investment from europe to europe and of course, being able to sell the se e vrvices across borders is a passport of sorts which could make it expensive for the banks to do business. And the jobs picture, as about 7 of all employees here in the uk are eu nationals and the big banks employ tens of thousands of those people, and that future could be unclear. Some of the employees used their lunch break in london to visit the Foreign Exchange shops to try to go ahead and exchange some of of the pound sterling using the fact that it is at a sixmonth high ahead of the preplanned travel, and ahead of other employees just trying to hedge their bets. Well sh, i did not panic mys, but i thought that i would do it just in case. I work in the finance, so i am thinking that the if we do go out, yes, it will be crashing. Bangs have been keeping the atm filled to the brim with cash, and the shift is to keep businesses running overnight, and jpmorgan is putting up the employees at a hotel near the canary wharff and the banks are looking at the real estate in fran fort and paris if the uk votes to leave and they are looking for offices elsewhere. The clients are being prioritized over the banks own business. They areal told to expect incredible volatility and some lags in pricing, and barclays has told the clients that they cannot put a limit on the stop loss as it is called in the Financial Sector unless they call by phone or have an interaction in person, they cant do it online. Some Bank Executives have told me that it is so unprecedented that the only corollary that is close that they have of what to expect is when the u. S. Lost its aaa rating back in 2012. Guys, we will send it back to you. And that is a little bit more dramatic than that right now, kayla. And dont go too far. For more on the vote and how is it going to impact the market, lets bring in allianz investor, and also, Global Trading executive burns mckinney. Burns, what are you expecting . We are not making a lot of trades based on the portfolio, but folks at bloomberg are helping us to run shock and test based on the correlations what should be hit harder and what should do better, and in the case of the actual brexit which the markets are not pricing that in anymore if you are looking at the betting markets as of today, but the places that you would be seeing hit is a flight to the dollar from other currencies which is a safe haven which would hurt the multi nationals, and flight to treasuries which is painful for the banks and insurer, and one of the biggest things that our correlations have shown is that the Energy Stocks would be hard hit. You dont think of that being the case, but because the argument would be that you would have slower Global Growth to impact the demand, and the Slower Growth of the dollar which is priced in, and that would bring down Energy Stocks. As of today, it is looking more and more they may remain, and if so, you will see the Energy Stocks rebound a little bit. And jay, are we perhaps reading too much into the bettinging markets, because as sara eisen just reported, the volume is pointing to leave, but the volume of the money is pointing to stay, and so it is one person, one vote, and you cant vote with the pound sterling in this case, so given the way that the polling is tilted over the past couple of days, could we actually be looking at a leave vote . Well, yeah, im concerned about some of the complacency in the market, and the market is doing is looking at the history, and looking at the scotland vote last year, and you had similar is sort of thing going into the vote. Both camps neck and neck, and a big decision, but when the people decided to go into the polling booth to mach a vote, they decided to stay. The devil you know is better than the devil that you dont know which is the thinking here. We dont know that and we wont know that until later on tonight, and the thing that is concerning here is that, you know, all of the betting markets showing 84 now, and the market does not seem to be positioned, and so if you get a surprise tonight, it is go g ing to be v, very messy and chaotic. If it is not, and we get a remain, burns, how many ancillary volatility comes from just the unsecertainty surroundg the entire exercise . Well, the uncertainty is the biggest factor. Irregardless of the outcome, the uk economy has been hit by the uncertainty, and you can see the slower Economic Growth expected this quarter which has to do with the companies tight with the Purse Strings on the Capital Spending coming from are the uncertainty, and likewise, even if they remain, you are still going to be seeing a good deal of, you know, within the markets unse uncertainty with respect to wave of nationalism sweeping across europe or even the United States, and because of the volatility, if someone wants to brexitproof the portfolio, some of the places the look is the companies with stable earnings, and dividend payers might soften the volatile Going Forward. Jay, there is a lot of talk on the downside if we did see the leave vote prevail, but are there surprises to the upside if in fact that surprise does happen . Well, i guess that some of the surprise is or some of the upside is that you could get a little bit of the rally here in the stock, and people feeling better from that, and maybe they feel like they have dodged a bullet, because of this. But i think that there is more downside here than there is particularly the upside. The only way would be a real upside here is if remain is just overwhelmingly favored, 55 to 60 or Something Like that, and that would be a good upside sort of a story, but if it is a very, very close vote here, you could see, you know, okay, this issue is settled for the time being, but it could come back up again in, you know, another few years or so, if it is very close. Jay, if in fact, we do get a remain vote, and it is overwhelmingly in that direction, how quickly codo you believe some of the Economic Activity would come back to the uk and say, m a activity and Capital Markets activity that has slowed down with the cloud of uncertainty hanging over it, and how quickly does it return . Well, our forecast Going Forward is that we have a recovery continuing in the uk predicated on the assumption that they do remain, and you will see the investment spending start to pick up a little bit as we are Going Forward, but with that said, we are not looking at robust sort of the expansion as we continue in the uk. Consumer spending has driven it there, and the consumers are getting a little bit tapped out, there and the 2 to 2. 5 growth rates of the last year in the uk, and this is what you are looking for, and if they exit, then all of the uncertainty there, and you are potentially looking like a recession later this year in the uk. Guys, appreciate that, and obviously, we have to wait for the wee hours of the morning to get a final decision from the uk. Thank you, burns mckinney, and bryan, you as well. And now, blackberry here, the hardware came in lighter than expect and if i are recall last quarter, you told us that in september youd have a decision of whether to continue with the hardway and with everything that you said on the call seemed bullish on hardware despite the volumes in hardware falling short of expectations, and is that because you have been able to control some things on the expense side . Yes. Good morning. We have done well in making the hardware efficient, but the thing that is interesting this morning is that i want people to realize is that we have branchout and taking the hardware knowhow, and the Device Software part of it, and now going to license it to other players, and it could be even Co Competitors for that matter. So there is now a software twist component of our socalled hardware business if that makes sense to you. I think that it makes some sense to me, and i want to get some clarification on that, because it seems similar to some moves that you made earlier on when you outsourced some of the actual manufacturing to, i believe it is fox conn to sort of remove some of the risk from the hardware model. Are you going further along the line, licensing out things like blackberry hub and trying to get the other oems to pick it up and higher margin revenue and less reven revenue, but the higher margin revenue. Precisely. Precisely. And we have also done, because we went into the segment reporting, and carving out separating out the hardware and the Enterprise Software business, and so with the hardware business, you can see that we are working a lot on the margin of the business and the amortization, and things that are, you know, assets that are impaired and that we have written off and Going Forward that is going to help our Balance Sheets and income statement both on the segment of the hardware as well as the overall. So, those are all of the factors that are kind of driven why i am like you are said, a little bit more bullish and we with could make money on the hardware. When e focusing on making ney first in the sector and the segment, and then worry about a growing the business, you are exactly right. Some of the cases, id rather take the less revenue and the higher margin. And is this waiting and seeing if blackberry is going to be making the hardware and making the adjustments to make it a more profitable business and licensing to include ing that in the mobility segment, but are you going to be making a decision come september whether it is hardware or no hardware . Well, if we find that despite all of the stuff that we are working on the market tells us that, you know, the hardware business by itself has a issue with making money, and the volume is just not there, then, yes, you know. We will do the right are thing with the shareholders and we will not just continually focus on losing money. So am i still looking at it that w way . I am always looking at it that way, and any business that does not make mo neex we dont have any possibilityt of making money in the near term, there is no reason for us to be in it. Id like to mention that you have reiterated your expectation for Software Growth of 30 for the fiscal yee, and software is continuing the do well for you, and john chen from blackberry on the earnings, a first on cnbc, and thank you for joining us. Thank you. We do want to get to breaking news out of germany, and Tyler Mathison is at the news desk for us. Than you, carl. A developing story south of frankfurt and reports that a man entered a cinema complex there in germany, and the incident is apparently over according to the various reports that we are filtering and the gunman has been subdued and there are also reports that the gunman has been neutralized or killed. Again, we are filtering a lot of the reports, including the one that 25 individuals have been injured in this incident which i, again, hurry to say is over now. Those 25 injuries are of undetermined cause or nature, and not sure what they are, but we are following a story of a man with a gun, shots fired in a cinema complex south of frankfurt. When we get more, we will bring it to you. Carl. Thank you, ty. Our Tyler Mathison. And when we come back unicorn twilio started to trade and just above the range. And also we will talk to paul ryan about the gun reform, and the sitin at the house, and we will take his comments live. And we will look across the pond as we are looking at the brexit vote coverage when squawk alley continues. Over unknowne differences. [ crash ] and reunited three decades later for a tour that sold out in three minutes. And your cisco hybrid cloud handled millions of ticket orders without breaking a sweat. Before all of this, [ crash ] the experts at cdw orchestrated a cisco hybrid cloud solution. Scalability by cisco. Orchestration by cdw. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Twilio is open for trading and opening up 23. 99 which is above the range priced at 15, and jeff lawson is a ceo of twilio which is on the disruptor list every year since 2015, and they have helped to price sms and apis into the software. And average tech ipo firstday gain is 18 , and you are doing 70, and that has to feel good . Well, it is the first day and this is the beginning of a long time as a company that is pub c publicly traded and so we are not worried much about the opening price, but the long t m term. And for those just learning the story, and we have mentioned that we have known the story for a while, and how do you explain it in a few sentences . What do krou to . It is a cloud formations platform and we allow Software Developers to embed applications such as voice, text, individuvi authentication, and these are the apis that are going to build communications into the apps and people have used group me and you are behind that and if you have gotten a texts because the uber or thelift is the lyft is arriving, and so talk about the expansion, of the companies that are using you throughout the p apps and the process a jound a platform now allowing more people to build into it, and where is the growth . What is the scale continuing to come from . Absolutely. We are scratching the surface, and it is literally day one of the conversion of communications are from the legacy in hardware and like physical network s s t the future which is based in software, and we are a software developer, and if they can dream up an idea of communicating better with the company that they do business with, and that developer can build it on top of twill e owe and scale it up, and this is the beginning of the very long opportunity to improve the worlds communication s ws the power of software. And does that mean retailers or mean internet of thing, and where is the real volume of communication going to come from and realtime i guess is a key part of it, because uber was was using a different method and switching to you because the timeliness is key. We are truly seeing that every company can benefit from the better communication, and whether it is retailers communicating with the customer, and we have a customer nordstrom which allows the sales people to text with the customers and whether it is a travel, whether it is a real estate or baking or ing became a customer powering the global call centers, and amazing cases, and i. T. , and we have new way for companies to develop their own wireless carrier, and program how it works and neat for the iot cases and for the corporate wireless systems that embed things such as compliance, and the opportunities here are big, and we are excited. The worlds developers, we want to help them to realize what is better made about the communications and how their company can be improve and the better Customer Experience because the company can communicate better. And this is launching on the brexit day, and you knew the day of the vote . Well, somewhere in the world there is something happening that can cause you trepidation, and we felt that the business is ready and we wanted to go out, and hoped that the brexit would cooperate, but it is never a great time, so we decided to take the plunge. Good to have you, jeff lawson, of twilio joining us here at post nine. Yes, a great time for you. And when we come back, awaiting the house comments from House Speaker paul ryan respond f responding to the the sitin for democrats calling for a vote on gun control, and country on the edge, voters in the uk are taking to polls for the brexit vote. We will go live to london coming up. We rare awaiting comments from House Speaker paul ryan who is expected to respond to not only the sitin push ing fing f vote on gun legislation, but apparently on scotus decisions as well. John harwood is in washington with the latest on that. Yes, speaker ryan has put out a statement saying that the Supreme Court had vindicated article i of the constitution with the ruling blocking the obama administrations immigration executive order, and this is of course, underscoring the stakes in the vacant Supreme Court post which he, the president has nominated marek garland for, and the Senate Republicans have refused a vote, and the president is going to be coming out to make a statement at 111 45 which is just announce and he is going to be making reference to the pend

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