Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20121207 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 7, 2012

Research Senior Research economist michelle mire and well talk through everything thats been happening through jobs and what to expect. But first, there is a developing story. An earthquake off the northeast coast of japan triggered a tsunami warning. The warning has been lifted, but it was a 7. 3 quake. So far no reports of any injuries or damage. It was for the same area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami back in march of last year. We will continue to bring you any developments. In the meantime, steve has some of the mornings top other stories. Lets start with the markets. Asian stocks rallying to 2012 highs overnight. The nikkei edging lower after hitting a se hitting hitting a seven month closing high yesterday. European trading, shares seem to be fwllat. Bundesbank announced it had cut its Growth Outlook for the country. In the u. S. , the nasdaq snapped its losing streak yesterday with its first gain in five days. The dow was on pace for its Third Straight weekly gain. U. S. Equity futures at this hour we dont have them. Maybe joe has them. Steve, you are here because its jobs friday. Are you here representing c innocent objects t cnbc or the bls . Im representing myself actually. Good to have you. In Corporate News, netflix, regulators warning they may bring civil action against the company and its ceo for violating Public Disclosure rules with a Facebook Post. Reed hastings posted netflix monthly viewing exceeded 1 million hours ever. Theyre required to make full and fair Public Disclosure of material nonpublic information and hastings i guess thought it was okay and its a gray area. Isnt that full and fair . I think it is a gray area because weve always made the argument if youre watching cnbc its okay because this is a Public Disclosure, right . I guess facebook maybe its different because you have to be a friend to be able to get access to that information. If it was twitter, maybe a different story. I wonder if thats how deeply theyre digging into this. He doesnt think theres anything. He dismisses the contention saying he doesnt believe the Facebook Post was even Material Information. It wouldnt take a lot of youd have to do the math to figure out what that says about the results for the quarter. In a letter yesterday he suggested that the post was accessible to more than 244,000 stub describe subscribers. Maybe he has a public page. Lets say you talk to a reporter who represented a paper with 25,000. But this is much more. This is ten times that. He would have satisfied his seems to be one of the dumber things thats out there. Kind of a chilling thing from the sec. A chilling effect. Well see what the share disafter the bell yesterday. Knoll not whole lot happening. This is stupid. Cant have everybody working on steve cohen, can they . Why are you laughing at that . And a judge naming lead plaintiffs in litigation dealing with the ipo of facebook. A group of investors including state Pension Funds will assume the role in a proposed class ax case. Being a judge also named lead plaintiffs for a lawsuit against nasdaq, that exchange also being sued over allegations that orders to buy and sell facebook were not properly executed on that first day of trading. And speaking of text lawsuits, yesterday apple tried to convince a u. S. District judge to ban sales of sam sisung. A ruling will come at a later date. In august a jury found samsung had copied critical features of the iphone and ipad and awarded apple damages. Speaking of apple, apple is arguably the stock of the week. Shares rebounded yesterday after a rough session on wednesday. Todays heard on the street column says that the stocks 22 drop creates an opportunity for investors. The reason theyre citing is that apple is more of a Software Company than a hard one, and that means that profits are likely to remain stable for some time to company. Meantime everyone is still talking about tim cooks comments in an interview with brian william, he says his Company Plans to produce one of its exciting lines of mak executers in the United States next year. There are skills that have left the u. S. Not necessarily education, but stopped producing that. How do we get that back is this. Its a converted effort to get them back. And with this project that ive talked about are we do a mac in the United States next year, i think this is another good step for us. Software sales declining by 11 from last year, still better than 13 drop analysts had been expecting. Hardware sales were down 13 while accessories dropped by 8 . And the john mcafee saga continues to unfold. The Software Guru is now back in a Detention Center in guatemala. He was taken to a hospital yesterday for what his lawyer described as two mild heart attacks. Mcafees Attorney Says his client suffers from anxiety and hypertension. The software pay near is being held by guatemalan authorities for entering the country illegally from belize. He fled belize after authority wanted to question him about the death of one of his neighbors. Mcafee said the police were behind all of this, hes been set up in all of this, but hes also tattoo on his arm. Hes also publicly blogged about using i want to convene our kids investment committee. Your daughter has a smartphone, right . Oh, yeah. What kind . Iphone. My son has a samsung. I asked him if he cared about getting an iphone. He got a droid. He doesnt care. Hes cool with the droid. And our data from the all America Survey showed that in tablets, iphone ipad leads samsung, except in the 18 to 34 demographic. Where the aspirations are equal. So i just part of the interview brian did, they show that add where the parents are the young guy holding the line for his parents. They get an iphone and hes already got the they try make it hipper to have a samsung, right . Theyre trying to do that. And both my kids have its nonstop. I dont think they ever put them down. Your youngest is how old . Ten. We had a rule in our town among all the parents no cell phone until fifth grade. All the parents got together and agreed. Because it if one kid got it, we all about a dozen pafrpts in t parents in the same community. Weve held off. Its an Internet Access device for him. It was just a matter of stopping the tech envy going on in town. In washington news, both parties hinting at renewed talks on the fiscal cliff. The acknowledgement of open lines of communication passed for encouraging news. A new survey finds more than 60 of leading investment professionals predict a shorp stock decline in the market if the government fails to come up with a deal. In this case defined as a more than 10 drop in the dow. 56 surveyed foresee a deal to avoid the cliff by year end, 44 predict failure in the ongoing negotiations. As for Corporate America, through yesterdays close, there have been 70 announcements of special dividends. These special difference deebds are valueded a more than 30. 1 billion. Among the latest names, mcgraw hill will pay a special dividends of 2. 50 a share before year end. And drop its previously announced plan to buy back up to 200 million more of stock this year. Everybodys paid their dividends this year, so they wont be paying them next year. This is a major issue. Whats going to happen is we have two great economists onset. But that money will get annualized, so the 30 in the gdp accounts is 120. Theyll multiply it by four on the dividends income. Its quarter to quarter change at an annualized rate. So its times four. There is the marginal propensity of those people to get to consume it. Lets ask them now. Thats why everything that i say is nuts. You can almost get any kifrnd info you want. And when we talk about the jobs report, seasonaled justments will be a huge factor relative to sandy. Bob and michelle are here. And my biggest question, if all the companies are pulling the give dends forward, the u. S. Government thinks it will be taking in x amount based on what they would normally get for dividends plus whatever the hirer rate is going to be. It will drop substantially, correct . Youll get leads and lags in the revenues. A lead into this year, a lag next year. Pretty obvious how this works. In terms of tax planning, let hope they know to take account of this. The argument will argue how great this is working and when theres a shortfall, how did that happen. So i hope we dont go that route. But this administration has been very big on these kinds of things, basically distorting whats going on and this current thing about the mandate really bothers me. So i woouldnt i think the challenge is being forward looking. Theres big challenges not just because the challenge in terms of getting all the information, but also if win terms of trying make the budget numbers look good and you never really want to take that hit. So you want to pull forward as much and i dont know how many assumptions you can make, but when and you have tax policy that changes every six months or a year and you dont know whats coming, obviously the lead story in the wall street journal is about Charitable Giving and in some cases people are even paying their mortgage in advance. Some people think that money is better left in the private sector. I dont know. Companies seem to think that, charities seem just seems like a better place to leave it. People are very resistant to giving money to people that they think will waste it. Thats the same problem with all of this, we have a housing sector thats just now starting to have a Real Recovery going and now theyre talking about taking away the mortgage interest deduction. Does this make any sense to anybody . The housing recovery is fragile. Looking better than it was. But its still fragile. Did you really want to its almost a regressive it hurts the people that youre trying to help. You have to do it some time. The amt takes that away, right . If youre a wealthier person and if you have excessive deduction, whatever they are, it just at some point takes them away and throws them away. But i wouldnt argue that the current tax code is a good thing. I think if you can zero it out and start from scratch, that would be a much better and by wealth you mean if you make like 70,000 a year. There is no simple answer how to obviously solve the tax problem, so ultimately you have to simplify the tax code which is what theyre trying to do by changes in deduction. You but i agree, i dont think it makes sense to change the mortgage Tax Deduction. But you could make a decision that you were going to grandfather it out over the next five to ten years, 12 years. I think thats what they did this britain. You have to make the decision that this is something we will no longer pay for in the future. And if people are forward looking, they could potentially plan. For the first year, a higher dividend collection rate may already be offset by everybody moving forward. And in the last couple of week, the great fact in britain where they went to 50 on millionaires and they ended up getting half as much revenue. Ive been thinking about this and i cant figure it out the macro effects of this dividend boom that were going through right now. First thing i figured out i think is that this is not advantageous to more than half of all rs. If you figure out that half of all shareholders are tax exempted and they dont really care, thats one. The second is not all shareholders had a plan you would assume to sell that stock and get that dividend. They may have been long term investors, so they dont benefit, they dont really care. And the other thing is when it comes to Capital Gains, right, so they dont care when you think about the problem of youve distributed the money to me. What do i do with it, how do i invest it in a beneficial way. To i spend it, do i reinvest it. Is the idea that i then take this money, that the stock market adjusts lower because of the dividend payouts, and i reinvest it at a lower rate, is that how its beneficial when you think through the flow of money that will result from this . Id rather have nowhere to put it than not having it and having the government have it. Its a serious investment quandary. Insiders are the ones were worried about here. Thats what im talking about. Is this something done by insiders for insiders . We know it doesnt help half of the folks. Because of the tax deferred stuff. What happens to the money . What always happens to money. We have an environment where the Interest Rates are low, so if you reinvest it in a fixed income product, you wont make much return. Youll have capital losses on bonds. Im very concerned about the low Interest Rate in the bond market and the long period of time weve had bond yield this is low. And in the stock market, you have to be careful because there could be a sorting out among stocks between high and low dividend stocks and how they perform when these guys go x dividend. Why couldnt you invest in g chlt and g e or comcast and get a 3 yield there. Either one would be a good place. Or comcast and get a 3 y there. Either one would be a good place. Wasnt i invested in company x before, didnt i have that money in there and now theyre giving it back . Now you own a larger part of the company. No, because if you reinvest it and they buy more share, you own a larger piece of it. It should be equal. Theyve taken that cash out of the company. The stock price should adjust lower. But cash is not the same as the ownership portion. Your thought would be if you can buy more of the company, you get a larger share. Youre getting bogged down in minutia here. Im worried about you again. You know who else youre bogging down is this all of our viewers at home are now tired. Its exactly the problem theyre going to have. Viewers are going theyll get this special dividend and the issue becomes what to do with it. I think also what youre potentially getting at is the idea of a financial wealth effect. We always talk about how household Balance Sheets matter a lot for Consumer Spending. Most of the time we focus on housing assets because its more of a permanent change this wealth, so consumers tend to spend out of that, but is there a financial wealth effect and will that start to show up in Consumer Spending. Thats where i think people are a lot more mixed because you often think the changes in financial wealth are more temporary, so youre not as inclined to spend out of it. But youre not running yahoo are you. Who is that . Youre Michelle Mayer. Yeah, thats marissa. She has blond hair. How do you think its going at yahoo . Never mind. Michelle mayer. All right. Coming up, jobs report expectations, plus Morgan Stanleys new pay plan. But first, the National Christmas tree is now aglow are red, green and white twinkling lights. Its they call it a holiday tree. Last night the flipped the switch on the giant blue splus. The starstudded event entertained the crowd were through . I was in d. C. . No. That one has nothing on 30 rockefeller. Try running four. Ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately weve got ink. The starstudded event it givess on our internet, phone charges and cable,it givess plus at Office Supply stores. Rewards we put right back into our business. This is the only thing weve ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. Make your mark with ink from chase. Managed to close higher yesterday, but today well give back less than 0. 2 . Making headline, Morgan Stanley unveiling a new pay plan. The firms Financial Advisers, ploer, being ensivent advised t increase client loans and transfer accounts with less than 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Transfer accounn 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. And transfer ac than 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Transfern 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Increase client transfer accounts with less than 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Transfer accounn 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Increase client transfer accounts with less than 100,000 in assets to a client advisory center. Weve been working only for the last couple of years to build outbanking and lending business. As we get more of our Financial Advisers to use our lending products, we have Significant Growth there. My mind just jumps around. Yeah, just suddenly fred no becky will read a story in a second. Greg fleming has been working on building up the units lending business to increase its return on equity. Now to todays Weather Forecast according to Steve Liesman. Is that me . I wanted to get right to it. Stitching. She would jump on things when one person stopped. That way the people at home never get a chance to even they cant blink. No dead air. You cant go to mika and joe. Now to todays national forecast, reynold wolf joins us from the Weather Channel and it looks like a rainy saturday for us here in new york. It does. You know, parts of the southeast could definitely use the rainfall, but youre guys are hogging it. But temperatures will remain fairly mild at least through much of your weekend. Here is the story for you as you mentioned, rain in the northeast, mostly cloudy, spotty showers parts of the southeast coast. Nations midsection, some snow showers in the twin city, dallas looking beautiful with 72 degrees. Out west, looks like all of the moisture will be limited to parts of the made civic northwest. High mountain, cascades. Snow could be over a foot 7,000 feet and up. Ski country, fantastic. So thats certainly the good news in that part of the world. In term of your air travel, backups are possible in chicago. Rain is the issue. Low clou

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