Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20130807 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box August 7, 2013

To maintain its pledge of increasing Monetary Base at an annual pace of 600 billion to 0 700 billion. T well be watching very chosely. European trading, you can see the stocks there are off a little bit too. The worst performances the ftse 100, down over 1. 2 . Down about 80 points. The u. S. Equity futures here are looking like they are also indicated lower. The dow futures are indicated down by almost 60 points. S p futures off by just over 7 points, and, again, the decline we saw yesterday, the 93point drop, the worst performance we have seen since the end of june, june 28th, the last time we saw a move like that, which tells you how calm and fence sitting the position these markets have been to this point. Also today, the treasury will offer 20 billion in tenyear notes at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. As for data points, the Mortgage Bankers Association Release at 7 00 eastern. Economists expect to continue to see downward trend in the rise in rates. Earnings front, ralph lauren, time warner, and wendys. One of the hottest restaurant stocks in america over the past year. We also have aol Ceo Tim Armstrong 7 00 eastern time and after the bell look for groupon, mondelez, and the hotly watched tesla. Also one not listed there, but one of my favorite economic surveys, the jolt survey. Job opening and labor turnover. Doesnt get as much attention as the adp, but i like to look at the people who leave their jobs voluntarily. If you quit your job, that means you have optimism you can find another job, generally, not in every case. I like to look at that. How many jobs are open and how many people feel confident enough in the economy and the job market that they can bail. There is an economist who looks at that and says thats one of the most important numbers they watch too. Ive been banging the drum. I havent gotten any traction. National effort to try to highlight i think you have a partner, i think thats one of the most important numbers too. It is a good number to watch. Thats coming out at 10 00. Corporate news this morning, the u. S. Government filing two civil lawsuits against bank of america. The suits accused the bank of investor fraud and its sale of 850 million of residential most backed securities. Latest in the fight between cbs and Time Warner Cable. Les moonves dismissing it as a Public Relations gesture and one little note for everybody, apparently cbs ratings are only off 1 , 2 as a result of this little battle and so when you think about how is that possible . Thats what i thought. When you think about the who has got the leverage in this negotiation, if your ratings are not tumbling, things change. How is that possible . Im in new york city. I thought everybody in new york city in new york city, for example, they only have Time Warner Cable has 45 of the market. So fios, rcn, all these others and then you factor in the nielsen box situation. Thats it. It gets us into not into the weeds of tv, but the world of the nielsen box, how ratings are still done and where they are. People who are busy, perhaps, dont have time to do so. Gives you a little tipoff as to where some of the nielsen boxes are locate elocated, not l. A. , york, not dallas. Possibly. Just a theory. Get a check on the markets once again. The futures are under pressure this morning. Right now, dow futures down by 56 points. S p 500 by 6 1 2. Oil prices at least at this point you can see wti up slightly. 7 cents. 105. 37. Thats below the trading range we have seen recently which has been closer to 107. If you look at the tenyear note, there is an auction coming up later this morning for treasuries. The yield now is 2. 64 . The dollar is going to be an interesting one to watch, particularly with what we just saw. The dollar yen sitting at 97. The dollar is up against the euro at 132. 96. The yen at 97. Gold prices yesterday closed below 1300 an ounce. Down once again this morning by another 5. 50. We got a story in the wall street journal this morning, i want to talk about this, the story suggesting that the s. E. C. Financial crisis cases are winding down and forcing officials apparently have decided not to recommend filing civil charges against Hedge Fund Firm magnetstar capital. It suffered billions of dollars in losses during the financial crisis. The paper suggests the decision is a sign that the s. E. C. Investigations into whether companies or individuals broke the law with their conduct ahead of the crisis are now running out of gas. Were coming up to the fiveyear anniversary of the crisis. But what is so fascinating to me about this particular case is we have abacus, we have fab and now magnettar, a close cousin of abacus, in terms of building a cbo meant to fail, if you believe that sort of description which is how they described abacus, i wasnt sure that was exactly the description from moment one. Putting the market together, you want to put people on both sides of the deal. Juries have come out to a different place on this. Im surprised i thought post fab to the extent theyre worried in cases there would be a little bit of mojo that the s. E. C. Would think they have going into september 15th and you might actually see a spait of these things. The journal coming to a different conclusion this is over and done. All i remember is going to d. C. Right after liaehman broths failed, there for five days, down on the train with a suit on my back, extended stay and ill never forget walking on capitol hill and having high ranking government officials and some people elected in Office Asking me what a credit default swap was, what a cdo was. These are new instruments, incredibly complex and if the s. E. C. , good men and women there, if they cant figure it out, i cant blame them. They were massively complicated. We were told not to use cdo on air because it was too complicated. I was not at the network at that point. What would you say instead . Just make sources say it for us. I see. Do me a favor, tell me what the problem is. Cdos. Sort of surprising and the other thing ive been watching, there is a number of bankruptcies, so you can see how much people are spending. There are still a number of cases out there, maybe not from the s. E. C. , but cases that have not been resolved. Well see. Also, disney reported Quarterly Earnings after the bell yesterday. The revenue came in light because of weakness amid the movie business. Joining us to break down the numbers is Anthony Declemente at barclays. Anthony, i know you have a neutral rating and you maintain that neutral rating after the numbers came out. The revenue was a little disappointing. Did that come as a surprise to you . No, i think revenue in the quarter was generally in line. The Parks Division was strong. I think if you look and try to break it down on espn, the print and the quarter was quite strong. If you smth out some timing issues in terms of when nba games were shown and when affiliate fees were recorded, top line net at the Cable Network for the second half including the forward quarter may be a touch slower than people think. But, look, thats probably reflected in the stock, which is modestly underperformed into the print and this remains a best in class Entertainment Company that trades at a reasonable valuation. You think it is a reasonable valuation. Strong quarter all the way around . Yeah, listen, in the past, ive raised some questions in our research about the increase in sports rights fees, but, you know, thats something that, you know, the operating margin profile at espn wont hold up the stock. Parks are doing exceedingly well. Iron man three and Monsters University this summer at the studio. While were neutral, probably more on valuation. We continue to think that media is a great place to be, that disney is in the next space. Is disney a company you think i believe i read your writings about this, you think it is prepared to start giving back more cash to shareholders. Yes what is happening, as their investment cycle in the park starts to taper, their Free Cash Flow will accelerate and were in the process of seeing that happen. If you think about their return of capital to shareholders as a percentage of Free Cash Flow to equity, if that stays relatively fixed, the dollar amount that comes back to shareholders in forms of a buyback will accelerate over a twoyear period that were in the process of. A lot of conglomerates are returning in the form of a buyback. Disney is behind that in terms of that theme because of their acquisition and because of investments in the parks. But now theyll catch up in a big way. Lone ranger is looking like a ishtar or water world. Losses from the box office flop, how much is that going to impact the quarter and should investors Pay Attention to it or ignore it and move on . Sure. Good question. I never took you for a filenes basement guy. This was five years ago. Are they still in business . I think on the lone i used to go there. On the lone ranger, investors are willing to some degree give disney a bit of a pass here. They had a string of successes with pixar, marvel. Though lone ranger was a tent pole stumble for disney, no denying that and Company Management can see theyre disappointed in the performance, if you look at the hit or miss business of film for disney and for its brands over the last few years, it has been a pretty hot batting average. I think investors will be willing to some degree give the stock a pass on the lone ranger. What is your favorite stock on the sector . I like the low multiple high return of capital names. I like cbs a lot. You were talking about the dispute with Time Warner Cable. I like viacom a lot. Thats an underdog incredibly attractively valued. I like disney, and in the midcap space, we like amc networks. Can you explain why cbs ratings have not fallen as precipitously as some would imagine given the blackout with Time Warner Cable . I havent looked at the blackout, i havent looked at the nielsen numbers, but i would imagine it is because Time Warner Cables distribution is relatively small percentage of the entire pie of the footprint. So, i mean, i think it is harder for that to come through in the nielsen ratings. I think the dispute is generally centered around not only price per subscriber for cbs service, but also digital rights. The price of show time, video on demand and content on cable, can cbs go direct to consumer with some of that content . I think some of the dispute revolves around mobile viewership of cbs content. And so, you know, it is a water shed time and well see how that contract works itself out, but i think folks in the industry are looking at it closely. Who do you think has the upper hand . I certainly think the content owner has the upper hand. Only because youve got so many bidders for content out there. If you look historically, look at viacom directv deal last year, it is obvious content has the upper hand. Content is king in terms of negotiations. Thats what we continue to see. I dont see that really changing. All right. Anthony, thank you for joining us this morning. Thanks a lot. Coming up on squawk box, say yahoo and you probably think about a logo with an exclamation point. Could that soon be a thing of the past . Well have that story coming up. First, one stock to watch today, first solar. Earnings sharply missing forecasts. Company lowering full year earnings and revenue guidance. That stock looks to get walloped today. As we head to break, lets check on todays National Weather forecast with the weather channels alex wallace. Good morning, alex. Good morning to you. Rough situation again across portions of the midwest. Dealing with more heavy rain. Actually going to step out of the way now so i can actually see what is going on. Monitors are not working correctly. But actually just heavy rain coming into some of the same areas we have been dealing with over the last several days. Springfield, the rainsville area, thats an area hit pretty hard with that heavy rain. Flash flood warnings, theyre ongoing across these areas here at this point. What we definitely do not want to be dealing with. We unfortunately are. More rain. And you see, justify not moving at all over the same areas. Rain training over the same spots. It is a rough situation across a good chunk of missouri. We need more no more rain. Unfortunately the risk for today and as well as we work our way through the next few days well be dealing with a risk for some showers as well as some storms, leading to potentially 3 to 5 inches of rain in the spots. Again this could lead to more problems. We already have flooded flooding issue and that is expected to continue out there for us as we work our way through the next 24 to 36 hours. Quite a bit of a mess were finding ourselves dealing with across the midwest. Unfortunately again, more rain to deal with. Jackie there are plenty of things i prefer to do on my own. But when it comes to investing, i just think its better to work with someone. Someone you feel you can really partner with. Unfortunately, ive found that some Brokerage Firms dont always encourage that kind of relationship. Thats why i stopped working at the old brokerage, and started working for charles schwab. Avo what kind of Financial Consultant are you looking for . Talk to us today. It is time for the executive edge. This is a new segment were launching this week focused on giving Business Leaders a leg up. Our goal is to highlight interesting stories that go beyond the mornings top headlines and one of the top stories trending on twitter this morning, jay lenos interview with president obama. Among the topics discussed, why the president says he will go to the g20 in russia despite multiple disputes with the country. Well be going to that because the g20 summit is the main forum where we talk about the economy, the world economy, with all the top economic powers in the world. The creating jobs, improving our economy, building up our manufacturing base, increasing wages, all those things now depend on how we compete in this global economy. And when you got problems in europe, or china is slowing down that has an impact here in the United States. He was not asked and did not happen to mention whether he would be having that private meeting with putin that so many people expected. I guess thats something still to wait and see. A lot of questions around that, particularly with snowden. I dont know. For me, at least, i think were in a box. We were physically just in boxes on television, but i say we as a country, you know, hes in a real box on this. I am surprised that hes been not more outspoken. I thought on an interview like that, he could have made some joke, could have been a little light on snowden to somehow get away with or get into the more tricky issues with russia. No . Listen you go to the g20, do you go and meet with pewteutin . Yes, i would. He has a huge amount of knowledge of our program now on asylum in russia for a year, essentially. So you want to meet with putin . I would, absolutely. What would you say . What would i say to putin . Dont look at that dudes computer. Please. You have to get the feeling there is some Mutual Understanding about the situation. Putin and the comments he made in the past suggested that he would not allow him to come in if he was going to be releasing any more secrets. Hes former kgb and feels strongly about a lot of the issues. Well see there is a closer relationship between the two nations. I have a sneaking suspicion that a closer relationship could develop. In other political buzz, mitt romney has a washi ingwarn congressional republicans. The gop should not force the Government Shutdown in the quest to stop obama care. Romney addressed more than 200 donors at a republican fundraiser in first speech of its kind since the election t was close to the press, but his Office Released prepared marks. He said in part, i badly want obama care to go away and stripping it of its funds has appeal, but we need to exercise great care about any talk of shutting down government. He went on to say what would come next when soldiers arent paid and when seniors fear for their medicare and Social Security and when the fbi is off duty . Here is my question, what is the role of romney going to be over the next two years in the campaign . You see him out there, looking almost president ial or on some kind of campaign again statesmanlike. What are we going to see from him, do people care, do they not care . He touched on this. He touched on this point of why would anyone listen to me, touching on the point he lost the election, why would you listen . He said we all learn from our mistakes and he thinks he has wisdom to add to the conversation. I think it is a good idea. Hopefully somebody will be the grownup in the room. I dont know it will be romney, but somebody needs to say, dont shut the government down, get in the room and talk, youre elected to work things out, youre not elected to spat in the media, to fight, to do nothing. His point was that the Republican Party would lose with voters if they were the ones who forced the government into a shutdown like that. Thats coming up at the beginning of october if they cant get things settled. Theyre about to go on recess. Gentlemen, let me also mention in Corporate News, internet branding icon is about to change. What is your opinion on it. Yahoo is getting a new logo next month. It will be first change in nearly two decades. Each day during the next four weeks yahoo will showcase different logos, 30 in total. After labor day, one will replace the distinctive y with the exclamation point. The company decided on the new logo. What . But usa reports that yahoo wants to show off different looks to look s to depict its renaissance under ceo of marissa mayer. What is the point in showing us the different ones . I have three words for you this morning on that. New orleans pelicans. Oh, yeah. Because when things arent going your way, im not s

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