Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20140320 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box March 20, 2014

Corridor that Australian Authorities have been searching. One is 24 meters or about 75 feet in size. The other is around about five meters in length or around about 15 feet in size. Now, the Officials Say that the objects are indistinct, but they say that they are credible sightings and they have been what they call awash in the indian ocean. This is located in a very remote place of australia where about 2,500 kilometers or about 1500 miles off of the coast of australia. Its very hard for aircraft to get to that particular part of the ocean. Four hours flying time and Officials Say that the aircraft has about two hours worth of fuel out there before they had to turn around and head back to the mainland before they can recommence their searching. Authorities also saying that a cloud and rain is making visibility tough in that part of the ocean at this time. We also heard an update from a malaysian transport authority who was speaking in the last 30 minutes, cautioning against people getting their hopes up that these objects may, in fact, be debris from the aircraft because we know in the past there has been what has been deemed possible cisightings of pieces of this aircraft and it was not. Back to you. Lets turn now to the fed as expected. The Central Bank Left Interest Rates unchanged. Nobody expected them to move on that. It also, though, continued on a take placer with another 10 billion cutting off the Bond Buying Program which could end by the fall. Nowhere is the market getting excited. During Janet Yellens first News Conference as the chair, she defined a key, quote, considerable period of time that it would take for Interest Rates to rise. Here is the exact exchange. If we continued to reduce the pace of our Asset Management purposes, it measured steps next fall. In this coming fall, you mean, not the fall of next year . This coming fall, yes. I just wanted to be clear. Once you do wind down the Bond Buying Program, could you tell us how long of a gap we might expect before the rate hikes do begin . So the language that we use in this statement is considerable period. So i you know, this is the kind of term its hard to define but, you know, probably settles on around the area of about six months. Those two words, six months, rattled the markets and sent stocks tumbling right as she said them. The dow fell as much as 200 points before closing off the lows of the day. As for treasuries, check out bond yields right now. You can see the tenyear treasury note, 99. 7. 8 here. The yield, 2. 775 . That spiked higher with the dollar when that occurred. So how are things looking this morning . First day of spring, becky, thank god, by the way. First day of spring on the calendar. The ice on my car said something differently this morning. You can see them implied down. Futures indicating a drop of about 3. Nasdaq about 5 and the dow, down about 26, becky. Lets talk more about the fed strategy and if the markets are getting us right. Joining us now to talk more about it on set, we have drew mattes on the economy, senior u. S. Economist at ubs. Guys, those two words, six months. Theres been a lot of criticism from outside. Do you think it was a mistake by yellen to go ahead and announce them in those terms . I think it was a little bit of a gaffe. Its her first real formal announcement as in her new job. And, you know, this really was nothing to react to. She says shes going to be targeting very broad things in the economy, inflation, blood measures over unemployment. You know, who is going to be on the tonight show a few weeks from now. She has all kinds of means to move, its just kind of a nonevent. I mean, shes given herself plant of on ways for her to change her mind. Im not too concerned about the economy getting that strong that quickly. Theres just too many fundamental problems underlying the economy, but i dont see inflationary pressures, i dont see pressure toes raise rates. Youre talking about the market stumbling, but youre talking about a decline for the dow. It will shake it off. I think if you look back a little more than a year ago, there was no threshold for unemployment and the fed was saying they were going to keep rates on hold until mid 2015. Janet yellen said yes keeping rates on hold until 2015. Youre in mid 2015. People who do math for a living in Financial Markets should be able to add six months to december and figure out that that is not a pulling forward and i think people got it because they thought this was something new. They thought the taper was going to end much more quickly. The problem is, everyone seems to think fed meetings are once a month. Theyre once every six to eight weeks, which creates that two to sixmonth differential. Finally, people are looking for the 6. 5 threshold to change and for no new information to be provided. I dont think any information was provided, but you know, people are searching for anything at this point because quite frankly, theyre both a little boring. Every data point is impacted by whether it seems like theres a big issue in the ukrainian russia. And, you know, everything is just kind of there, but no one can trust anything theyre hearing. Was she direct in how she spoke . I think shes much more plain spoken than any of the others. I appreciate that. She was very cool about some bearish things in the economy. And but it was just a little of room for interpretation in there as to what shes actually going to do. And the middle of next year is a long ways off. You know, and i think the market just reacted based on what everyone in the market thinks other people are going to do. Its a classic keynesian reaction. There wasnt that much in that statement. So i feel like the relationships there would be right. You said parsing the language we always do, go back to being a star chamber, sit in a dark room. Theyre halfway there. Did this give us a preview of what higher rates must whatever it is might do . Are higher Interest Rates necessarily a bad thing for stocks given that higher Interest Rates should also tell a story of a strengthening economy . Well, sure, but if you look at what really has been carrying this economy has been, you know, world wash and liquidity. You know, weve got a world like flood of capital, labor, and capacity. And theres really, you know, a lot of fundamental problems with under water homes and consumers not having access to credit. You know, in an economy were more than twothirds of our gross domestic product. The private sector, we have seen some growth. The Public Sector has been down and the private sector we have seen some decent growth. Thats true. But i mean, i if you look at it, higher rates are good for the economy at this point. So why is it good . Well, when rates go to zero, everyone tries to get their cash back and keep et very short in terms of maturity. And equities, the way that that happens is you start paying to give them more buybacks and dif depositeds. It makes it more attractive to people. If you start raising rates, then youre going to have to equities are going to get rewarded for growth instead of for shortening duration and buybacks. That means youre going to want to start investing if youre a ceo. Conversely, a higher rate will i think its good for both equities and the economy. Whenever you have people responding to the potential for growth as opposed to some fear of Something Else happening do you think thats a virtual cycle instead of the vicious cycle weve been in . Were talking about 2005. Were pointing to air or may of 2000. That was 50 pounds ago. May, air or may of 2015 versus october at the point were at . A thousand things could happen between now and then. Caught out on one side of the yield curve, everybody is so piled into serp yields that if we start to see this move higher on the ten year like we did, we could see this big shift in the bond market. And as we rachet up Interest Rates on the longer end, its going to make equities, specifically the big caps, i. E. The dividend payers less attractive. Could this be more of a mechanical shift rather than just a fed call . There is an interest in playing the yield curve. So there are a lot of people waiting for the move to actually start because history has shown that you can wait for the move to start and gain some momentum and still get in and still make money. Was yesterday the beginning of that move . I dont know if it was the beginning of the move. The dollar, too. We have talked about those little dots, right . And the feds forecast shifted materially in 2016. They actually added a rate hike in 2016. So when youre thinking about how the fed is thinking about these things, theyre going from were going to get slow and its going to take us forever to get from normalized to potentially were going to go and when we go, its going to look like more of a tightening cycle which was not priced into the market. If theres anything that justifies a response we saw yesterday, its that shift of more rate hikes earlier because that makes it closer to a normal fed rate hike, like theres something more in line with the announcement rather than this kind of were going to wait forever and go with half speed. Do you think theres anything, speculation or its just a gaffe . If you ask me about conserve time, i would say six months. Thats fed speak. Although we havent done that in a very, very young time. It tells us how young traders are. When we come back, should we start to worry about the strength of the Housing Market . Were going to get a reality. And convicted felon Bernie Madoff is speaking out from behind bars. He says it would be easy for another ponzi scheme like his to happen again. Weve got that story when we return. Return. Welcome back to squawk box on this first day of spring. Futures are indicated weaker. Theyve dropped, doubling the losses from just a few minutes ago. Right now, the s p 500 are off by 5. 5 points. The tenyear note is yielding 2. 775 . It has finally moved above 2. 75 . Earlier in the week, we were looking at 2. 6 and change. The dollar is made big moves based on what janet yellen said yesterday that rates will rise at some point in the actual future, sometime between a year and a year and a half from now. We knew that was coming, but when it about 14. 1,327. 50 an ounce. We often talk on the show, and i dont know how often, about 3d printing. And the question this morning, is hd going 3d . Hewlett packard is expected to outline plan toes enter the commercial 3d markets in june. Chief executive meg whitman telling shareholders on tuesday that the company will make a very Big Technology announcement regarding how it will approach a market that has excited the imagination of investors and consumers. Im excited for that. I think its a while before it has a huge implication for manufacturing. Theres not too many things that youll be able to order that you can go to the printer and do instead of off of amazon or Something Like that. Yeah. But five or ten years from now, there will be serious potentially. We know somebody who bought a pair of glasses that was made. I fired a gun that was made from a 3d printer. You did . I watched the guy make the clip and the hammer. Wow. And came out of the milk, which is basically a white chemical where the laser heats it up. It takes a long time, but this was an old gun the guy was using. It was part of a documentary. And the gun worked. Scary. Its not that everybody is going to have a printer at home and that you can make anything in your printer. Because you need the kwif lend of the ink, right . Youre making model cars, youre making blocks. Its the idea that everyone is going to make jewelry at home or this or that, its not clear that yeah, but i agree with you, its going to trend manufacture i manufacturing is going to face an even greater xalg challenge than it has in the past 20 years. Are manufacturers going to have a problem in terms of creating . Absolutely. Lets talk about starbucks. It is making a new chai tea in collaboration with oprah winfrey. That was the big announcement out of starbucks annual meeting yesterday. Oprah has never put her name on Something Like this before. Its not technically an endorsement. All proceeds that oprah makes will be donated to Youth Education charity pes. It is worth noting that the tea itself is a 90 billion global market. And we were talking about this at teavana, if youve been in there, its pretty pricey. You can spend 30 and up for a pound of tea. Ive walked out of there and spent 1 00 before. Really. Yeah. You dont even realize it. You can buy just a cup of tea, too. You can buy a cup of tea. Its not that much. They give away free samples just to get you to like it. The big bucks for them is if you buy a pound of it and half a pound of their special sugar that they use. Thats how they make their money. Im not enough of a teamaker. But youve ditched the coffee for the well, i drink coffee, but i start with tea in the morning. Im feeling much better, thank you. Remember we had a guy in with this highly caffeinated tea . Thats what i want. No, we had a guy who makes special leaves that they find in i dont remember where they im all decaf, so it seems like at some point the pot industry and the tea industry are going to merge. Is working from home more productive . The New York Times recently ran a story about this saying, quote, those who work at home tend to put in longer hours and are often more productive. The ceo of gallop took issue with that statement and he wrote a story about it from linkedin. He says Research Shows people who work remotely for less than 20 of the time are the most likely to be engaged of all employees. Disengagement rises when employees spend more time out of the office working. Agree or disagree, andrew . Youre a guy who spends multiple places for work. Im most productive on an airplane. No distractions. No. I actually want to be on an airplane with the internet, but theres no other human beings to talk to me which is a good thing when youre trying to do work. If i was never for long periods of time, that that would be hard. I do think theres something to go to your office at least partially to check this is worth some higher piece at yahoo . There were productive people at yahoo but part of the problem was that they never talk to each other. There is something you said about going to an office and talking to each other and having some kind of integration a little bit, no . I would agree. Now, i would like to see in that poll how many of the workers from home have dogs. I have two dogs who bark at everything. So if youre trying work from home, youre on a Conference Call, whose dogs are i mean, i i have a little kid. Its a lot harder to get things done. It used to be easier. I think it fends on who you are and what you do. If im not doing this fine program, street signs in the morning, ill get up early, go through the news, do the Conference Call here in the morning, send out just one drink and go through and put together some show notes. If you can get quiet, you can do it. But it depends on the job you have, too. I used to know a guy who worked at ibm for probably 20 years. And he worked for ibm at home for 20 years. And i could never figure out how productive there was no office to go to. It depends on your job, though. If you have a project and youre assigned that project and you can sit down and do it, that would be democratic. I think it would be tougher to do something where you have to work with other people. When i wrote my book, i wrote it at home. It was probably the most productive thing ive ever done in my life. Theres the asterisk, no kids at that time. Big difference, right . We should tell you about a couple things this morning. We have a special guest for todays edition of executive edge. Mj lease, finance reporter from politico who interviewed Bernie Madoff behind bars last week. She joins us now. It is a cnbc exclusive. Good morning to you, m. J. Good morning. First of all, how did the interview come about . How did it happen . I just wrote him a letter a couple of weeks ago t. He agreed to talk. He called me a week later and said did he call you collect . He did, actually, and apparently my cell phone didnt have money on it, and so i had to, you know, get him back some other way. But we ended up connecting on the phone instead of emailing and set up the interview. Give us a little bit of the sense of what he thinks life is like in prison. I was struck in particular by a line when he said that the prison was he thought was beautiful like a college campus. Right. He seems to be doing very well. I was struck when i first saw him. I thought that he would look more sick, i thought that he would look a little more weak. He seems to be doing fine. Adjusting to life in prison, considering the kind of lifestyle that he had before getting to prison. I was a little struck by that, as well. The description of the prison being more like a college campus. The inmates are nice for him. I think his biggest problem is boredom and passing time. He watches a lot of things on television. I thought most controversial was this idea that he felt no remorse, it sounded like very little remorse for what he had done. What was that about . Sure. I think that its not true that he doesnt feel remorse. I actually do think that he feels a tremendous amount of guilt and remorse, especially when it comes to the pain that hes inflicted on his family. But youre right, there are certain lines in the story and certain lines that stuck out for me at the time, too, and i knew he shouldnt be saying that and i thought he would no better than to say Something Like that. His depends are something that people talk about a lot. The fact that you jewish individuals and groups and charities, that theyre very vulnerable because he himself was a member of those communities and the fact that he said, you know, i didnt heard the mojews more than i hurt e catholics. In terms of how hes come to that view . I was struck by how on defense mode he was during the entire sprue. I spoke to him for about three hours. He was very open about his family, you know, he kept coming back to justifying himself, justifying details of how this has been covere

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