Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20140626 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box June 26, 2014

You have one on set with you, i think. We have one on set here. Weve been playing with this for the past few days. Looking up your noses . Looking up our noses. I thought i saw one on a stick over where you are. Am i wrong . Is there a gopro around here on a stick . Oh, yeah, youre right. Yeah, youre right. You know more than i do about was going on. This thing will be live on show . Thats dangerous. It is. This camera is dangerous. I actually one of these, by the way. I own two of them. I own one, too. What do you do with them, put them in your race car . Exactly. Theyre in my race car. Theyre tough. Ill give the gopros credit. Well be talking a lot about gopro during the rest of the program. In other news right now, new York Attorney general Eric Schneiderman who becky will be talking to in a little bit, too, is slapping barclays with its securities lawsuit. They alleged the bank gave an unfair advantage to its High Frequency trading clients. Orders on its trading venue. Instead rather of exchanges that might have offered better prices and the worst part about it is they told investors that one group was not getting an advantage over the other group but now it appears that the allegation is that they were. Shares of barclays trading lower oversea owes this news. Were going to check in with our colleague in london for more on all of that in just a few memberships. Attorney schneiderman will be our special guest at 7 40 eastern time this morning. Meanwhile, General Motors telling its north american dealers to stop selling new and used chevy cruise sedans from 2013 and last year. It expects to file another official recall notice for the government. Gm this time is worried about air bags made by takata. And for headlines, a number of Economic Data points. At 8 30 eastern time, we get weekly jobless claims. Then may personal income and spending and then at 11 1 00, the Kansas City Fed survey. Meantime, personal income is forecast to have risen 0. 4 last month. All right. Right now, lets get a check on your thursday markets this morning. Futures are flat for stocks. Were not getting an indication either way of which way the market wants to know. Maybe a hair tick down, but im saying a minor, minor tick down. By the way, the dow is down 1 this month. The russell 2000 down 4 , rather quietly in june. Crude oil is down slightly this morning to 106. 49. And crude oil, believe it or not, is actually down a couple of percent so far this week. The tenyear treasury yields, still around 2. 5 . That is favorable for mortgage rates. In the currency market, it is about, what, 136. 16, euro dollar. Still cost you 11. 36 to buy euro. And in the gold markets, gold, like oil, down fractionally w9au week, although it is up 5 in the last month. Are things looking better or worse going into the economy in the second half . Lets get more. With us now on set, eden harris from bank of America Merrill lynch and doug duncan, chief economist at fannie mae. Thank you very much. Ethan, you and i were talking over the coffee machine before the show and i said if you can figure out this economy, youre smarter than i am. You have the terrible contraction in the First Quarter, but home sales, auto sales and rail car shipments are up. How do you score . Id say we just cant figure it out. Thats not helpful. Yeah. Its not helpful. If you look at the First Quarter, you had an awful december, an awful january, and then things have looked okay since then. If you look at the various monthly indicators, i think you just assume that theres a lot of quirkiness in the way the government calculated statistics. You look at the trends and the numbers that look a lot better Going Forward. As you said, the housing number very good. But its not just that. The job market is looking better. Industrial production is better. Surveys are better. The economy doesnt look remotely like its in a recession. I guess the problem is, ethan, even the good numbers i quoted, car sales, home sales, etcetera, those are back dated. They look last month. Is it possible that in the last three to four weeks, things have turned softly that quickly . No. This is a revision for old data. Every time we look at q1 again, theres another create out there out of the government. Frankly, ive never seen data as bizarre is this. This has a recession number written all over it. Theyve stopped fighting over budgets in washington. For now. Yeah. But thats going to last a while. Theres nothing happening globally. Hold on. Can i just mentions, there is a shock. Weve been talking about it, what i thought was supposed to be a shock called iraq. Yeah, but for the past three weeks. But iraqs Oil Production has gone up a couple Million Barrels a day. So even if they go offline a million, theres still more than they were. We talked about how our somebody was with us and we had a great decision about when youre supposed to buy crude on anxiety you know, macro anxiety and it clearly if it was a great conversation, it had nothing to do with me. It had nothing to do with you. We should worry about iraq if the rebels get into southern oil field. The 10 increase in oil prices so far, thats a dent in the economy. I agree with that. One town, one small market. We know housing has done well. We hear about the housing wealth effect. Is there any quantifiable way to prove, really, how much the increase in home values contribute ultimately to consumer spending, minus people taking out dangerous lines of credit to, you know, buy a boat . Well, theres various estimates of that. Economists are in pretty strong consensus. Each dollar of additional equity generating maybe 3 to 5 cents in sales. One thing to remember is theres the level and theres the trend line. So the trend line in housing is strong. Youre seeing the number of people who owe more on their home than its worth is declining. But theres still 5 million or 6 million households. Theres no wealth effect for them because they owe more on the house than they have we talked to goes to your various issue to some degree. I thought it was a good piece. Did you come out on the other side or did you agree with him . I agree with him. I thought it was a good piece. I think that what youre seeing in housing today is a slowdown of generated by the run up on how markets contacted that rates were going to change when the fed stopped its securities purchases. So the rates backed off about 40 basis points from the peak. So the most decent data shows the trend in housing is wrong, but when you compared the level, its pretty flight year over year. Theres a score of thought that with he ever good number we get, people come out and say no question, its the fed. The how much is it . How much when the fed stops will things come down if at all, doug . I think kevin will argue to some degree when they stop its actually better. Were taking the other side of that. That aligns with our theme this year. We picked as a theyve private forces more to the fore. Youll see removal, stimulus from the fed, armslength transactions will reveal things. I think the important thing to remember is the fed is not going to remove stimulus unless they are very confident in the sustained recovery which hasnt happened yet. Were still talking about this bad First Quarter, coming off four years of subpar growth. If they see 3 growth, if they think theyre confident its going to continue, then they take their foot off the gas pedal incredibly slowly. So the fed is still our best friend here, even as they exit. If the fed were fighting a serious inflation problem and trying to slam on the brakes, i would be very worried. But the way theyre operating with a focus on growth, the risks are low on this market. He think the markets i can its because of the degree of intervention that weve seen in the post crisis period as sort of unprecedented. Theres no textbook, right . Theres no model, no textbook. While the fed may not have been successful in getting a strong growth surge, it is good for the banking system, good for the housing market, good for corporate Balance Sheets. So theyve now set us up for better growth Going Forward by healing Balance Sheets. Okay. Ethan, doug, thank you. Were going to get across the pond. It is now time for the Global Markets report. Steve sedgwick is stands can by in london. The treasury today on barc y barclays. Weve now got a lawsuit for securities fraud being filed against it by the new York Attorney general. The shares involve the london listing. This goes back to those original accusations weve seen about if broader industry that Michael Lewis has been talking about in flash point. They need a lot of banks and a lot of strangeness. So chients could see their information. Dark pools are soefd upposed to safe from competitors. Now theyre saying there was so much hfp going on in their exchanges, in their dark pools, as well. Theres a lot of that going on, in fact, it goes that barclays courted the algorithmic traders and the high frequently traders to maximize their interest while charging the hfc guys for almost nothing. What they did was maximize their own profit and regardless of where the best price was, directed that client business to their own dark pool. Barclays for the most part is saying they are cooperating and looking at these allegations very seriously, as well. Weve all been looking at the chicken egg issue. The dark pools were developed so that chients could get their business if a till tated away from exchangers and now it sounds like hfc guys had their fingers all over it, as well. And the other angle on this is its a european bank. The europeans are bemoaning the fact that its the steve, thats what i want to talk to you about. In london, you know, if you were in paris today and youre talking about bnp, they think theres some kind of grand shakedown going on. Thats the phrase they like to use. Is that the sithinking there or did they look at the merits of the case that has been brought and say maybe dallas prosh here . Youre going to get the nationalistic side of things. But the fact of the matter is, i think theres a feeling that the banks generally, i get the american banks, british banks, french banks, if they have been conducting illegalities, i think the opt sit from what the french politicians, if they smilted xhg illegal, why arent they . Anthony jenkins wants to pair down the investment bank. Let me ask you a question on this, too, steve. When you look at the situation with barclays, i know they say theyre cooperating, but have they given or said anything that gleans any indication . My biggest question on all this is is this a situation where theyre being charged with incompetentence or malice . Barclays said we take this allegations very seriously, cooperating with authorities, looking at the matter internetly. One of the action ewe sayings. Their existence in the dark pool was taken out of the statistics. Sounds like it is now. It makes it sound like it is. At the moment, its an alleged, but it doesnt look good, does it . The last time they were serious alleges made against barclays, the last time the ceo had his job handed to him within a matter of days by the live lend of the Federal Reserve where you were. Their current ceo, anthony jenkins, is he in the line of fire here . I dont think so. Not at the moment. Anthony jenkins has gone on the record with Geoff Cutmore in davos and hes gone on the record saying, look, i want to make a similar bank based on the retail. Bob had a very strong Barclays Capital Investment Banking idea of where he wanted to take barclays. Remember right at the height of the crisis, many lehman assets on this side of the pond. He was trying to grow the investment bank, making it very big and aggressive and some of this is big u. S. Names, as well. Retail banking kind of guy, he wants to take barclays simpler. Hes announced enormous numbers of job cuts, thousands and thousand he of job cuts. Hes pulling back. This may well actually play into his hand and given further we need to pay more thana0 we will be talking to mr. Schneiderman at 7 45 a. M. Eastern time. You do not want to miss that. In the meantime, another tech giant releasing information that is workforce demographic and it doesnt look like facebook is eye more diverse than some of its peers. Plus, in the next hour, we will be welcoming former fed governor kevin warsh to talk about that great oped that he wrote. Now, though, time to make the case for what the fed does orr doesnt have pop. Giants tim lincecum pitched his second career nohitter. Back in just a moment. Are constantly monitored for threats. Outside and in. Thats why hp reports and helps neutralize more intrusions than anyone. In the world. If Hp Security Solutions can help keep the Worlds Largest organizations safe, they can keep yours safe, too. Make it matter. Welcome back to squawk box. Im now for the executive edge. Facebook releasing its diversity numbers on a similar move by going sxl yahoo . Facebook says its male female split is 69 to 31 . Announcing strategies quote unquote to help increase the overall pool of talent from underrepresented communities, 53 of all facebook employees are white. 34 are asian. 4 are hispanic and 2 are black. Guys, Michelle Sandberg leaning in. Theyre not leaning enough . Is that whats happening here . You know, the statistics when you read some of those numbers, its even more when you look at just the engineers who are involved in the in it. It remind heed me a lot of what engineering schools are like on any college campus. It has to be addressed earlier than once you get to the workforce. Its great that theyre highlighting this. Its good to see these numbers, but i think are real problems is thats where you have to try and find out if you can get women interested and continuing these things from high school and beyond. Yeah. I mean, look at the wording of the statement, basically the underrepresented talent pool. What theyre saying is clearly were just not getting applications necessarily for these jobs. It could be one story if year threating applications but not hiring. But at the same time, theyre just not getting the applications. Last week when i sat in at the academy, theyre encouraging people to sit in and even using cash. Another story weve been talking about for the past 24 hours. The Supreme Courts area ruling in what it means for consumers. The Tv Streaming Service will be forced to shut down or make very big changes. Among the broadcasting and Cable Companies that opposed aeeo on copyright issues before the Supreme Court. I know you spoke briefly to barely diller yesterday. We emailed back and forth. Barry diller is one of the key investors in aereo. The ceo of aereo says theyre going to keep fighting. But diller, he says its over. We tried and its over. This is a huge rowling that will make it difficult for aereo to operate. Theres all kinds of questions about what happened to that business now. To me, taereo represents Something Different than i think other people thought. It represents the possibility of unbundling in the future, if this was to move forward, that you might see Cable Companies be forced to unbundle. Now they probably dont. Whereas talk to the narrowness of the ruling. The justice says even a majority made a point of saying this is not some broad sweeping commentary on other types of distributive telling. This related to aereo and this was specific business because there were thoughts about what would this mean for other type of transmitters. They said this is just about a e aero. I can string stuff on my tivo to my device over the internet. But, of course, i have to pay my cable bill. Its a different story. Back in 1981, the sony case established all the rights to do this, to be able to copy something that you have paid for and view it on your own time. That case is actually the primary care that aereos lawyers were relying on, sort of a time shifting standpoint. The best tweet i saw yesterday, somebody said lots of antennas for sales cheap. If your business is making chee cheese. Let me tell you about one finaltory. Lift, side car and uber x. Theyre all facing opposition from Taxi Companies which argue that the upstarts do not face the strict regulations that they do. Insurance Companies Want drivers to carry more expensive insurance policies so you can see the pressure building on all sides, guys. This is what weve been talking about for a long time, guys. Waiting to see what happens with regulation and the same structures put on taxi drivers and limo drivers, waiting for something to come and happen to these guys. What was so interesting is part of this debate in california is coming because there was an accident on new years eve in San Francisco where an uber x drivers had hit and killed the child. They had turned on the application and hadnt picked up a chile. It kind of underlies the whole model. Yeah, but you know what . It should be becky, how about if i give you a ride to the store and theres no money exchanged, i have car insurance. By law, i have to have insurance. Right. But youre not doing it to make a profit. Youre not running it as a business. If you were running it as a business, the expectation is there will be more people in your car. If you take 10,000, nsfj; wpeq one thing. 20,000 is any. I dont know why the insurance regulation is difference. You are making money off business, its a Business Enterprise and as a result you should be held to a higher standard. If you think of it from an insurance perspective, theyre always trying to figure out how big of a risk it is. If you are out and picking up people potentially to make money, you are on the road more frequently am i . If you were out there doing it as a job. I agree with you, no question if youre picking up passengers while the passenger is in the vehicle, you should

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