The National Retail federation reporting on average, shoppers spent 6 less this thanks giving weekend thn they did a year earlier. Friday, it looked like it was going to be better. 11 lower in total. Online sales were all sort of on to them at this point. Today dubbed cyber monday, the traditionally Biggest Online shopping day. The consumer will spend 2. 5 billion online in one day. Well check in with Courtney Reagan in 20 minutes along with our industry analyst. And we have congress returning from the holiday recess today. Legislators have less than two weeks to figure out how to keep the government running. Funding set to expire on december 11th. Fight over spending bills comes as the party is also debating immigration. So lots going on over this holiday. Really wasnt a holiday weekend. People did work on friday. We missed you, joe. Good. Yes, thank you. Nice to be missed. Were going to talk oil in just a second. Another Washington News today, the Supreme Court is going to hear arguments in a facebook threats case. At issue, the free speech writes of people who use threatening or violent language on social media. The case before the court involves a man sentenced for posting graphically violent rap lyrics about killing his estranged wife, shooting up a class of kids, and attacking an fbi agent. He says he was just venting. Didnt mean to threaten anyone. His wife and federal prosecutors didnt take it quite as lightly and didnt agree. In global news, hundreds of prodemocracy protesters are clashing with police. Earlier this morning in hong kongs government headquarters, clashes began yesterday. The latest in what has been more than two months old prodemocracy movement and demonstrators are demanding free elections for the citys next leader in 2017. Sony pictures is cleaning up from a massive cyber attack. Several of the latest films have been leaked on line including furrey and remake of annie. The fbi is now involved in the investigation. Theyre looking into any possible connection. They think there is a north korea connection, actually, and a cyber attack knocking out the studios Computer Network a week ago has something to do with it. Sony hired a Forensics Company to help recover those films. At this point, some of them have been downloaded nearly a million times already. U. S. Authorities losing a motion to have an internet entrepreneur thrown in jail until the extradition hearing. The u. S. Wants kim. Com to be held in jail before the hearing to face piracy charges. Rejectsing allegation thats kim. Com that founded the mega upload was a risk. They had not broken bail conditions after taken into custody by u. S. And new zealand authorities in 2012. Do dotcom is accused of massive copy writing infringe. In 2005 that site was acted in the transactions. His name is dotcom and got into hightech. That is really weird. Just very, very, very strange. Isnt it . Lets check on the markets this morning. Lets look at the fults atures what is happening after six months gains of the markets are down 62 points. Big piece on the china slowdown in the wall street journal. But at the same time, a piece on oil that says its not demand. Its supply. So we got to figure out when we if only we had a true expert in studio with us today. Since we dont, we have john kilda. Im kidding. Good to have you back. Like we said, we tried the rest. Were going to come back to the best. Like im a pizza box. Were talking in a second. Lets check out europe quickly then well get to what i think is im going to rail on oil because, you know, we play that serious music, which i love. Which i love and i think its very effective music. But id be playing let the good times roll by the cars. Rollout the barrel. I would be playing every happy sound in the world. But perhaps this Long National nightmare is over of 100 oil orchestrated by basically by cartel. You can look at the down side and say oh, my gosh. Now oil so cheap that were not going to migrate to oil or to wind and solar and, you know, thats giving i saw something on the Huffington Post this morning. This is a this is threaded. This is awful. This is all the progress we made were forcing people to migrate to much more expensive renewables is not going to work now. And thats for that reason, the move to a noncapitalistic type of economy where people dont travel and we get more agrarian based on climate change, much harder to do with oil where it is now. Wind and solar will be find, joe. Lets look at the ten year. Theyre not economically viable where they are. Solar prices are way down. Wind is a conventional energy source. When you fly across country in the solar powered plane, you lt me know. Youll be on remote. There is 2. 17 again on the ten year. I didnt watch that last week. What happened to the 3 that we were supposed to be heading towards . Again headed back down. Theres the euro 124. 68. I havent looked at gold recently. It is above or below on 1200 . Should be below based on everything else. Here is 1172. Lets dive deeper into what is behind the plunging price of crude. The broader S P Energy Index is down 20 . And that puts it in bear market territory for the struggling sector. Here with us now, john kilda, he is a contributor here at cnbc. Weve been through all the other analysts, john. I mean we cant have them back on. Guys at 100 said that when the when oil dropped to 9 o, remember they said its going back up. No. They said, look, i know whats happening here. The markets are not looking at the things that i know to be true. The markets are misinterpreting what is happening. They say that with a straight face. They get so used to the idea that oil is going to stay high. Once again, the malthusian bet about peak oil . I came against it all the time. Every time someone bets against technology making thngs cheaper that we get out of ore or whatever, you always lose. We get technology and in this case it was fracking. I wasnt sure what it was going to be. I knew a cell phone is bigger than my head and came down to such small size and there was technology, something was going to get more oil out of the ground. We didnt get it all. It turned out to be the fracking. And Old Technology that got repurposed and got us to where we are. As far as the oil price though not going back up during the course of this year, we hit the Tipping Point about midyear where u. S. Gulf Coast Storage of oil was almost full. And nigeria as a country had upwards of 30 to 40 super tankers filled with oil with nowhere to go. So the writing was on the wall for a price break to occur because of the oversupply of oil that was clear to the marketplace. All right. Weve got, like i said, two different articles here. We have engineerijergen and new rather than demand is dominating the market. But then on page a2, china slowdown hits global markets. So it is a combination of supply and demand. Much more supply. It would be better for the Global Growth story and the u. S. , you know, that were going to hit 3 . Stock market isnt over. All those types of things. Its bad if were looking at a global slowdown. Thats not what you think is going. You think its supply . Its a minor factor. I am watching it. Copper did break 3 a pound. Its now down to 287. Thats a little worry. China is hanging in there. I think some of bad overnight numbers were part of that factory shutdown. They had to clean up the air ahead of the economic summit they held. Its much more about the surge and sfli upply of oil. Were producing oil now more than they kept records. Were right behind saudi arain why and behind the russians. So this is all about supply. Much more how long does it take before we hear that okay when it becomes not economically feasible to drill certain places because its expensive, how long does that take to exert its effect and to put a brake on the slide in prices . I think it is starting to happen a little bit. Youre hearing stories and some of the Companies Cutting back on capital expenditures. You heard i think earlier in the program that permits in the shale plays have calmed down a little bit already. We sharpened our pencil. Where is the number . Its as low as 40 a barrel here in the shale plays. Andrew, with me, i dont you know i dont like change. I remember when i was in high school filling up for 1. 10 a gallon. It went to 42 much i was like this cannot stand. So im still waiting for 20. It went to 10. Remember it went back down to 10. So ive been waiting for 40 for a long time. The break even is 40. Ive been surprised by that. I put out a piece on cnbc. Com that it would go to 50 but in the First Quarter of next year. Were already at 65. I think we can go down now and test that 40 level. Mid First Quarter next year, that will be the shoulder season demand before we get into the summer, thats with we really see the glut affecting things. Give me the view from the New York Times on the left. So we tax the hell out of this now and do infrastructure no that its so cheap . Is it a huge negative that were not going to migrate to cleaner forms of energy and stuck using this terrible stuff . Possibly. So it is a there are negatives to this . There are some negatives. Is it a net negative or net positive for the world that oil is much cheaper . You know what is interesting. Whatever you think the geo implication to all of this is. You could bankrupt some of the countries. That i dont know what happens when those things happen. So we have to wait for putin squirming. I always like to see putin squirming. Wait, are you going to tell me the answer on break . My grandmother in law over thanks giving says she owns shell. Shes only it for 20, 30 years. Hasnt sold it. Says should i sell it . I said, you know, i dont really know. Were not supposed to give advice in the family but since youre on the show and youre here, what are we supposed to do . You saw the big intergrateors get hit last week. Theyre going to continue to get hit. The only saving grace for shell and exxon is to the degree that refining margins are holding up beautifully. There is still sufficient demand for the diesel fuel they make. That is the only aspect of the portfolio that is going to do well. But all the stocks you think are going to go low . I do. I wouldnt touch them with a ten foot pole. So youre not saying we go back up to 9 o . No way. Im listening to what youre saying. You said take a while. Like its going back. We bounced off 63. 75 overnight. But this is undervalued . Oil is undervalued here . I think its still overvalued. But what is the inherent value of oil right now . Thats a good question, joe. See, people youre auditioning about whether you come back here. Were going to remember all these things. Thats okay. I was gone for a while. The other guys got their history. No, i think it will be grind lower. I thought we would bottom around 70 in the aftermath of the opec meeting. Here we are down to 63. 75. People said not 60, not 70. It cant go below. No, it can. It already did. But im going to stick with, i think the 50 is the area where you see real reaction by the shale producers. I also want to quote larry kudlow this is unam bbiguously good. Opec, i hope it breaks. You know, i would rub it all over myself. And the dominos could really fall about the geo politics from russia to venezuela. Can geo politics get any worse . They werent great at 100. Yes, they could. Does it seem things are going swimmingly over there for us at 100 oil. You tell me. What happened to some of the countries. I dont know. Were not going to have another war for 6 60 oil when w have one here. Does it undermine saudi arabia. They love us. Theyre huge friends. All 19 hijackers. Anyway, okay then. Nice to see you. Good to be back. Thanks so much. As markets continue to digest Lower Oil Prices, what are the possible ripple effects for investors . Joining us now for our monday morning strategy session is barbara rhineheart. She is chief Investment Officer for private banking. What is your take on this . What are we doing . Theres a couple things you can do. One thing that were talking to our clients about though is what are the beneficiaries of Lower Oil Prices . Because while energy certainly doesnt look like a buy at this point, the technicals are very weak. And one of them is india. One of them is south korea, another is thailand. A lot of the big oil importers, this is a very big wind fall for them. The second piece is its a big boom to consumers worldwide. Because Commodity Prices coming down mean that you pay less at the pump which puts more Discretionary Income in your wallet. Who is hurt besides the Traditional Oil producers . Well, of course, you know, some of the marginal producers and the noncore opec producers need very high prices in order to maintain their fiscal budget. And so, you know, libya, nigeria comes under a lot of pressure. Nigeria devalued the currency. They had to raise Interest Rates for the first time in five or six years. We think that probably theres an opportunity that the oil can decline, you know, still meaningfully from here. You have to put that in a potential scenario where it could go to 50 or 60. You say 50 or 60. You dont say 40 though . No. We think 50 or 60 is where we bottom out in the First Quarter next year in particular. Opec is in for a surprise. The iea says only 4 of shale needs 80 a barrel. In the balkin, there is a number that says its 42 is where, you know, things become unprofitable. You would ever, were talking about solar, would you ever go near a Solar Company . In this type of environment, you have to watch the technicals very closely. And the technicals look low. Do you Love Airlines . Are they the darlings of all darlings . Anything leveraged to the consumer sector, retailers, retail hers fantastic gains on friday. That was not by mistake. Chemical companies . Chemical companies are going to have a little bit more difficulty, of course. This is a supply issue. This is not necessarily its a supply issue and very weak demand. But what oil tells us is also some of the demand shots that you felt earlier this year in europe and japan. So most of the demand shocks are actually supply. Its behind you at this point. Its more of a supply issue. So you dont buy who wrote that article, joe . Which one . The demand article. Jergen. Daniel jergen. What is his argument . The argument is that the saudis were caught totally by surprise for the supply. They were not prepared for it and its not a demand issue as much as it is a supply issue. Which is a good thing. So hes saying its a supply ush u. Yes. Not a demand issue. Yes. The other article says its demand. I thought you were saying the opposite. Demand article. I read the quote here, andrew. The quote is new supply rather than demand is dominating the market and opec you didnt have to read the article. You just had to read the quote. Its like 11 records. Its a poll quote. Is that what it is called . A poll quote . You never heard that . No. Supply comes from a couple places. You also have supply coming from the noncore opec countries as well. Okay. Were going to live it there. I want you to pay atejs and work with me on this. Ill work with you. You work with me. No. You work with me. The reason i was not quoting seriously about saudi arabia there, i was channeling are you up to speed on homeland. Yes, i am. Remember when sal baren dnson. He was talking he was making that case, arguing with someone that was 9 11 was orchestrated, saying that saudis are our friends, and the guy saying says, really in 19 of the hijackers, so thats where i got. That im not trying to start a fight with the saudis. And the other thing i just want to ask you to listen and work with me. The other thing, did you see the cameo from the dead guy who is in your yes, but i would not say that to those who have not seen the show, yet. Its look a month after. But you know what . Thats their fault. But your guy then i wont say who it was. The guy that you cast in billions. Theyre my friends. Yes, did he. What is the drug they gave the character . Do you know . I do not know. Are you on top of homeland . I dont have time to watch. Next, ringing the register on the black friday weekend. The retail scorecard on who is winning big this Holiday Season and who is being left behind. And why it could be a bit easier to buy a box of Girl Scout Cookies this year. How the group is entering the modern age of shopping. Like the samoas. Those are my favorites. Financial noise financial noise financial noise cookie sales are about to go on line. They approve what is being called the digital cookie. Not that kind of cookie. Its a platform for scouts to sell and ship boxes of the treats. Boxes have been going for 4. Sales have been hitting around will 00 million a year. And we had the ceo on a couple times. I got some problems, weight problems after thanksgiving. They say pumpkin, key lime or apple . You said all. I said yes. Youre fat. I am fat. I am fat. I broke through some resistance. By next week, by the time were going to the Christmas Parties that we had to go through, ill be back to back in shape. We should tell you retailers are talleying results of black friday. Courtney reagan has more from ohio. Thats right. We are live from ohio. Were at fanatics. Its the largest retailer for the sports merchandise. Black friday sales were up 25 . That may end up being an outliar. Retail sales and traffic both falling below expectations. And below last year. They estimate that sales in store and online fell 11 over the black friday thanks giving weekend. Traffic down 5 . Now black friday still Reigns Supreme as the busiest day of the week with a dozen shoppers out onbly friday. Now many retailers both online and the traditional brickandmortar offered holiday promotions before thanksgiving. Many are offering them after. Also consumers know that deep discounts are not isolated to black friday weekend. So that could have been some of the reason for what we saw with sales in traffic. So what does it mean for cyber monday . Well, perhaps some consumers are holding up