Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150508 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box May 8, 2015

Tornadoes and flash flooding. Before that lets take a look at the market. The u. S. Equity futures shaping up to a positive day with the bulls if they stay for the early trends. S p fauutures up by 3. 5 and nasdaq up by 14. Lets tell you the big stories were watching this morning. The april employment report due at 8 30 eastern time. Forecasters say the economy added 228,000 jobs last month. The Unemployment Rate is seen declining to 5. 4 to a near 7 year low but of course there are lots of varying views on what this could all mean including some much higher estimates and also much much lower estimates. Also Billionaire Oil man boone boonepickens say oil will hit 75 by end of year. He notes Oil Inventories peaked. And the New York Times reporting that Taxi Service Uber submitted a 3 millioned by for nokias map business. Its a competitor to google maps. Theyre teaming up on an offer for that service as well. Google bought waves too. Ways still has its own app. They have their own app. The current uber system relies on the google map. So if google were to ever somehow pull it these are sort of the issues. You dont want to be reliant on one mapping service. Apple has its own mapping service. Started out of the gate not so great. But i ended up in weird places. Like a bridge out or a road that a road that didnt connect that was supposed to connect. There was a guy following gps in northwest indiana about a month agatha drove off an unfinished bridge that had been unfinished for ten years. You should use the mapping but pay attention. Watch the road probably is a good idea. Yeah. Google takes into account all the different changing traffic and it just seems better. Google is better because it integrates ways. I use google more in the winter. I dont know why. I was doing that thing where you flip the arrow. Where ever you are in google you put in your destination and it assumes where you are and it takes you in and gives you three different and i know how to go back and forth. Now that you know all of that about me. I use google for city driving and on the highways i tend to use ways a little more. I never volunteered any information. Youre on your own. Only when im a passenger. What about cops. Nobody likes a rat. Nobody likes you know you will say theres a cop there and the poor cop is like really hidden. I think the cops are now using ways too. Theyre like youre the guy that just ratted me out. Its cool when it says theres a pothole coming up. Thats where our world is now. Thats neat. It is. Stocks to watch this morning, syngenta is rejecting a takeover offer. This is an Agro Chemicals firm. It doesnt take into account Regulatory Risk for the offer. Monster beverage taking a hit. Shares of sprouts, Farmers Market also getting hit hard. The organic food retailer with weaker than expected earnings and sales and offering some disappointing full year guidance. Other stocks on our radar this morning, cbs results topping wall streets estimates. An increase in subscription fee revenue offset a decline in content licensing and distribution sales. Ceo moonves will be on squawk on the street this morning. Also Nuance Communications beating the street. The company also increasing its stock buy back plan and warning that its Current Quarter revenue will fall short. Theyre blaming weak pc sales and a stronger dollar. Lets get a check on the markets again this morning. Futures are looking better. This comes after a day of gains for the major averages. The dow brought back about 82 points. The s p yesterday was up by about 8 points and nasdaq up by 26 points. If you take a look at the early trading this morning in europe youll see at least in this hour the major averages there in the green. The ftse is up by 1. 7 after that surprise massive win for the conservative party in the u. K. Well talk more about that in just a little bit. In asia overnight, youll see that yeah things ended higher there as well. The nikkei was up by close to. 5 . And the shanghai composite was up by 2. 25 . Oil prices this was an interesting story yesterday. The crude oil sector was down across the board. It was the only sector lower for stocks and that came as crude oil dropped by 3. 3 . That was the worst day in a month after hitting its highs the day before. This morning prices up slightly. Above 59. 59. 03. Check out the ten year because the yield versus been on a tear. Yesterday was the first time in nine days that we had seen a down day for treasury yields. At this point you look and youll see theyre still sitting well above 2 . 2. 195 . The dollar this morning, the dollar index coming off a multiweak low yesterday. The dollar is up against the euro and yen. Euro at 11238 and yen at 11937 and gold prices 1,185. 80 an ounce. British i Election Results showing that Prime Ministers David Camerons conservatives ready to return to power. Wilfred frost joins us now with more from london. Good morning. Andrew good morning to you. Yes, a resounding victory for Prime Minister David Cameron and his conservative party relative to expectations. Just 14 or 15 hours ago before we started getting any of the results people were expecting a Hung Parliament with labour and the conservative party to get around 280 seats each. Well short of a majority which is 326. Yet we have conservative with 321 seats. Its likely theyll get the overall majority. The big stories on the political front here are the snp. The Scottish National party surge. They have over 50 seats which is an astonishing result for them. Although that had been priced into expectations. The surprise coming in england with labor and the liberal democrats doing much much worse than expected. The leerdaders expected to have to resign. This has been taken well by the markets. Sterile chg had been as lowhigh as 151 this week. It crossed the 7,000 market. Financials and utilities have done particularly well because those were sectors that the labor party may well have hit. Its important just to state overall the reason why the market has rallied is not just because the conservatives have won rather than labor but because we have gotten a clear result at all. We were expecting coalition discussions for days or weeks. But David Cameron expected to secure an overall majority in the next hour or so and markets taking that well. Thank you very much. Well be talking more about that later this morning here as well. In the meantime though the markets here in the United States anxiously awaiting the aprils jobs report. Were more than two hours from getting this market moving number. Joining us is jerry webman. Michael is a Senior Vice President of investments at ubs. Welcome to both of you. Jerry, what do you expect from the jobs number because guesses are all over the map this time. Guesses are guesses but i think getting to this 225, maybe 250 range it seems right maybe on the low end of that. You know the Labour Market has been weak. Its weird. Were not firing people. Really low numbers on new unemployment claims but reluctance to hire too. So i think were kind of in this kind of nobody knows where to go. Earnings arent okay. Revenues arent great. People arent spending. So well cut a few more paychecks. Thats the critical thing. Well get another, you call it 225,000 new paychecks for the last month and thats supportive but its not great momentum. What if we get a number like we got last month. Something that surprises to the down side. I think that is i dont think bad news is going to be good news in this instance. I think theres a lot of worry about the momentum of the u. S. Economy coming out of this First Quarter. Wed like to see that things picked up a little bit in april so i think the market would take that as sy significant disappointment. Well watch a lot of what happens to the revisions of the march numbers. One of the things i always think and i always tell people when we get an outlier number you can put your odds on getting a revision. If it doesnt and we get a weak number this time we have to be concerned about how much growth momentum there is in the u. S. Economy. This number is important for today and an important indicator of where this economy is headed. How much do you think the market is going to be waiting on this number . A lot. Its the most important jobs number of the year because youre catching market where is theres been significant damage to fixed income and theres been an increase in Inflation Expectations and not in growth expectations. So if you have a number thats real low, youre going to have a concern that theres weakness in the economy and youll not have seen growth in the economy. So when you look at Corporate Bond levels. You look at 30 year treasury levels, ten year treasury levels theyre all in tenuous positions currently. So you could use a weaker number to try to bolster those numbers but if you get it too weak youll have concerns that the economy is slowing and Inflation Expectations are rising. Is there a number thats perfect for the market or is the market going to be concern first degree this number is hot or cold . It may be that goldilocks is a pretty picky pickle this time around. I know its not just the jobs number. Youre watching oil prices currency and what Central Banks are doing. Theyve been the big movers. Theres Higher Expectations across the board. Higher energy prices. A little bit of a come back there but youre seeing the material sector on the stocks. On the stock side looking stronger. So youre seeing reflections of that. I would say that stocks have had a Pretty Healthy pull back response to a pretty Unhealthy Development on the fixed income side. Fixed income prices looking weaker. Looking more tenuous and if you see higher Corporate Bond rates for example, you may see a rush of mna activity on the stock side because folks may be saying, you know what everyone in the pool we have a short time line before rates go higher to pull these deals off. Yesterday the ten year, were you watch . I caught the end. Got to like 230 for awhile and the german bund got up to like 75 in the chart. From almost 0. From 0 to 75. Which 75 basis points sounds like nothing until you realize how quickly. Yeah and we talked about it. If something moves from 6 to 675, people are on the wrong side of that trade. It doesnt matter whether its low. Its the velocity of which way its going. But it all happened with the backdrop of weak Economic Growth here. Suddenly rates spiked after we had all of these weak numbers. We made the point that its because europe is improving. We have the benefit of Europe Holding us down when we thought we were growing faster. Now its the reverse situation. Rates are going up because of them and we suck all of a sudden. Is that an overstatement. Its an overstatement. But thats maybe why this number today is so important. But we didnt know how good we had it. Oil was at 40. Now oil is at 70 or whatever. 0. 2 gdp. And the market was able to go up on all the good stuff. What did you take with Janet Yellens comments. You got a dress rehearsal on this yesterday. Its just looking at the irony of us not being able to make an advance in 2015 when everything was great. If we get a great jobs number today does that negate that . If its a good number youre worried about inflation. If its a bad number the rates are still going up because of europe. People look at this average earnings number which tells you something but the employment cost index we saw last week thats really important to focus on because it holds the mix of jobs steady. What it told us is people are actually getting paid for more the same jobs. The average Hourly Earnings it gets influenced by the mix of the jobs were adding or not adding. So it tells us were paying people for more the same jobs so theres a little bit of the pressure were looking for. Theres a fear that theyve created this instability. So we tell them that. Thats what irritates me. Is the fed orchestrated a rise in asset values to try to get them going for the economy. Looks like these are kind of valuations are high. We did it so the 04, 06 was to make up for 94. Now they want to make up for it. We have a guest coming on later that said this. I forget who it is. Because this is largely a supply situation that we could see inflation that creeps in before we know it. Yeah i think that is beginning to start and its not clear whether the fed is going to be in the audience or on the stage. You are seeing rates move higher without the fed making a move yet and even expectations on the fed making a move on the curve are not reflecting stuff until september or later. That could be the case. I think that thats true and it means we better generate growth or markets are going to have a tightening experience without a growth experience and youll get more volatility. Your house is burning. We have to point that out there right now. Looks like that is actually starting to consume your house. They orchestrate the overvaluation. But thats their job. Their job wasnt to inflate assets. It was to try to get the Unemployment Rate down. So they say. What was the other tool they have . You say so they say. They didnt say they had another tool. Keeping rates at zero puts more money out there. Theyre hoping that it filters into the overall economy. Has it . This is the 6th year of 2 . Im surprised that you dont believe in trickle down economics. Thats trickle down Monetary Policy. Thats true. Its not trickle down growth. Its trickle down government which is what you love. You have 1 labor force growth. How much growth can you generate in an advanced economy like this. All of a sudden this is good. 2 . I didnt say it was good. I just said lets not point to the fed. Theyre not impressive. People think if the government got out of the way wed be doing 3 or 4 . People think that so britain is almost exactly the same pattern since 2010 in low productivity, low unemployment weak growth. And europe has been slow too. Well were not europe. We used to be exceptional in regard to europe relative to europe because we did things differently. They tried the opposite. Got them the same result. People can say whatever they want. Thats one of the problems and what critics are saying is causing the low growth. You can get a better meal. Now youre not talking about england. Youre talking about france. Coming up when we return fitbit filing to go public. Well have the details next but first heres a look back at this date in history. You can call me shallow. But, i have a wandering eye. I mean, come on. National gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. I could choose you. Or i could choose her if i like her more. And i do. Oh, the silent treatment. Real mature. So you wanna get out of here . Go national. Go like a pro. If you want to succeed in business, mistakes are a luxury you cant afford. Thats why i recommend fast reliable comcast Business Internet. They know what businesses need. And theres a nomistake guarantee. If you dont like it, you have thirty days to call and get your money back. With comcast Business Internet you literally cant mook a mistick. I meant to say that. Switch today and get the no mistake guarantee. Comcast business. Built for business. Change fees in 2014 . Delta. The airline collected more than 875 million from these fees. In much of the nation middle of the nation bracing for more dangerous weather today. Dave malkoff joins us from bridge creek oklahoma where beckdybeck becky lived for awhile. No, broken arrow. Shes lived everywhere. I saw more videos last night of tornadoes tornadoes. Everybody has a way to take videos. But that looks horrible behind you. Yeah, theyve got the Storm Chasers out and they have the ability to send those videos back live. About 40 tornadoes on wednesday. Hand full of injuries. Now the weird thing about that fatality is it happened in an underground shelter. This is one of those sheltders but theres an interesting story about this one. Theres a family of five. Theres three kids and two adults. Mom and dad down here in the shelter. Now not only did they have the tornado pull their house on top of their shelter, the garage door and bricks were on top of here and they were trapped inside but if you look in here what do you see . Theres water down here on the ground. Do you see that . Because water was pouring in. There was a flash flood after the tornado. So theyre trapped in here because of the debris on top of them. They cant get out and theres a metal door and theyre trapped on here because of the water pouring in and debris on top but they also have look at this i almost wonder if thats a design flaw. Theres a latch that latches them inside there. So they had to have a hero neighbor come across and pull everybody out of here. Got the garage door out of here. He pulled it off with his bare hands and took a crow bar and got everyone out of here. But if you look around this neighborhood guys every single house has some sort of damage like this but nobody was killed. Not one person. Zero. Thats a good number to end on. Zero, right you guys. Dave thats a terrifying story. How long were they trapped down there. It was probably a good 15 minutes or so they were in there. Their kids were kind of freaking out because they didnt know what were going to happen. The parents said the main thing they were freaking out about and this is another thing where its good to be 7, right . The main thing they were freaking out about was the loss of their star wars toys. Not the loss of their life potentially. They were upset they were going to lose their star wars toys. But mom and dad were keeping them calm. Did a really gr

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