Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160630 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box June 30, 2016

The world was supposed to end and it didnt. It has been the same case with the ftse. Ftse is right at 6 yesterday and bringing it back to higher levels. I know he wanted to hear this. I wanted to tell him this. No, no. Its not about me. Never about me, but mark grant is going to come on. Thus far you have been right. Mark grant is going to come on and say its not the uk shouldnt be the ones worried, its the eu that should be worried. Sterling has gotten hit pretty hard. Jim paulson is going to come on tomorrow and say the same thing. Call it a wom went to cast right now because its a little bit too progressive. Have you heard that. I have no the. They have a show. You heard that from what, your twitter followers. Dont you see that. Well share with our twitter followers. You go wild, dont you. When the cats away, the mouse will play. Its like video New York Times not bad . No . No, no. What did holeman say last night. He wrote a big Global Warming piece. We did not talk about that. Censored. Let take a look at what happened overnight once again in asia. The nikkei ended flat. Shanghai was flat as well. In europe the early trading there youre going to continue to see green arrows as well. These are more modest advances, but the dax is up by. 3 . Take a look at currencies because again thats where a lot of havoc has played out. The pound has stabilized. Dollar is up against the yen. Still sthen take a look at crud oil prices because cramer has been telling us all along. Right nowwti is down about 50 cents. Number of big stories we have on top today. I didnt know you were back in town. Well get there in just a minute. Jet lag. No. Do you have a mic on . In the meantime, george giving a speech in front of parliament this morning. Decision to leave the European Union has unleashed a crisis similar to 2008 crisis. I dont know who wants to say theyre right here. Or is rsoros pair of economic r coming up on the agenda. Thats at 8 30 eastern time. June chicago, pmi comes out just before 10 am. Speaking in london today about economy policy. And on the earnings calendar well be hearing from con ag ra, consolation, consolation,. Yahoo holding anim ing annu shareholder meeting. We will see ceo taking the stage in santa clara california. That is going to be streamed live. Investors will have plenty of questions for her about the core internet business. Expected to make decisions on the first week new mexico july. Among the potential buyers, everybody has heard these names before. Verizon, at, and t. Quicken loan. He may not be wrong. No. For me, im more in the greenspan camp. When eread the headline, he was saying it could be at bad as 2008. He wasnt talking about brexit. He was talking about Central Banks. Yes. I dont know kwa cauwhat cau day of reckoning that causes it. You dont buy into the direction. Knost the brexit, but the. The krak crack at the rest of the eu. I think the eu as a whole has been responsible for if below par growth or at least not helping get out of the below par growth. Does it spark a Global Financial crisis . No. I mean, maybe that does. If they come up for all eight years of all this easing might, but not this. Honestly, thats part of what soros part was to take this and restructure the eu. Its similar to the financial cris crisis except that its the opposite so far. Because the ftse is above its almost at a new high. Sterling still at 1. 34. Were supposed to be down about 5 thousand points. What youve already seen is the draw down in the banks. Could they be a financial contagion. We look at italy. Theyve got to inject money into is the banking system. Who was i talking to about this . When that happens, the gdp couple of guys getting makeup. The gdp metrics, theyre going to throw that totally and the eu is going to go well, theyve never held anyone to the parameters that were part of being in that union. Theyve never had it and they wonder why it doesnt work. And they have mandates saying that should raise taxes to meet some of those man dats. Good luck raising taxes at this point. Thats the last time soros has been right. Hes had so many putts and short positions. He has had huge s p positions and i dont know. Anyway, stocks to watch today stars and lions gate. Reportedly in talks to purchase stars and could pay 30 in cash in stock. I saw a lot of these. You will see a lot of these when youre on the road. In fact, we stayed right across the street from one. You astro do this. Tractor supply. You have to stay at a holiday in express. You have to go to the place called cracker barrel. He has a thing with salad bars. It was a serious issue back in the day. But cracker barrel. Love cracker barrel, but you have to go everybody is happy. Happy country. Yes, it is. Tractor supply taking a big hit after lowering. Ka bell las has its own water tower. Firm cut its outlook on weak secondary quarter results. Visa filed a lawsuit against walmart claiming the retailer secretly began recon fig you aring payment terminals. Last month walmart sued visa to use visa more costly verification process. I never give me pin number because i dont trust the retailers to keep it safe. You use your credit card, you use your debit card to get cash. Yes. Right. What about gasoline. Same thing. I dont give my pin number to any other why would you give your pin number to any other retailer, to any vendor along the way. Because i dont want to run up any credit. Im a child of depression. You use your debit card. I like to pay cash. Hold on, do you really not. Its cheaper. I get a cash discount. If you took the points it would be cheaper. Points for miles. If you had a capitol one, you can get cash back. Not in my wallet. I get 1. 75 back. Theres a 6 cash back. No. If you find it, tell me. I saw ittiz advertised. By the way, folks, if you werent watching the Cincinnati Reds game monday night, our very own joe threw out the first pitch. If i had gotten i didnt practice. I didnt walk off a couple of times. I walked off 60 feet, but physicif i practiced, i would have done it full on. I wanted the guy to be able to catch it. It rolled back to the i just wanted to get it to where billy could catch it. No injuries. Nobody got hurt and the mayor showed up. I saw. Mayor cranely who has been on the show before. Is your foot on the no, no, im sort of in the front part of the mound. Im on the. I thought you got behind and throw on top. My instructions once you get there are just that was the way they said. No tommy john surgery after that. No, no, i didnt really lean into you know what, did you wear your tommy johns though. No. You know how you talk about asymmetric writs, that was asmetic wrist. Right. Like i was thinking i really should just lean into this and full wind up on the rubber and try to do it and just take what comes. But then it looks crazy. But no one would have said, wow, you are a good pitcher. Im impressed. I would not make it halfway to the plate. I didnt think i would be, but when it happened i was a little consternation. Nothing can happen when youre throwing a ball, but when youre there its like something definitely could happen. People are watching. Just to answer your question, its a Blue American express card, you get 6 back on the first six,000 spent at a super market. Chase does a card at 5 for super market stuff. How did you find that out so quickly. Little google ninja. Hands on ceo. Lets talk banks on the other end. Bank stocks are on the move this morning. Following the results of yesterdays stress test, we saw a flurry of buy backs and dividend moves. Coming all the way back from london just for this. Just to do this story. I would come back. There are only a couple days a year that the banks sector as a whole gets news that moves the stocks in a mostive direction and this in the past few years has come to be one of those. The c car results. 31 of 33 banks passed. Morgan substantiinoorgan stanle pass. Deutsche bank and santander both did not pass. Further drawing the line between the health of the u. S. Banking system and the health of the European Banking system, but they have not been participating in this process for as long, but it is interesting to see whether this maybe sets an example for the way barclays fair when they go through the test next year. Lets go through some of Tyler Flowers plans. Morgan stanley raising the dividend to. 20 a share. The buyback was raised to 10. 6 billion. Bank of america 7. 5 dividend. The real big news was city group more than tripling its dividend and also raising its buyback to 8. 6 billion. Should be noted just in terms of dividend yield, this is still one of the lowest sectors because theyve been held back by the feds, but even p you get good news in dribbles for people who hold the stocks, its not bad. Its been a huge news week for all of these banks. Not only what happened in europe with the brexit vote, but probably more importantly what that means for Central Banks and how long it will be before they raise Interest Rates because thats so important to the health of the Financial Sector too. I think people focus on the banks and we talk about brexit they say oh the bank shares are down 25 , 30 . The bond side of the picture is holding up so people arent really perceiving theres a run on the bank. Theyre not panicking, but the bigger fear too is how far does this go until tin the economy. You saw the Home Building stocks falling. If people perceive their home is worth less, if the people buying real estate there have to sell and leave the country, what does that coto the housing market, what does it do the people who would otherwise be spending money and driving the economy forward. Cool. Kayla, thank you. From canada, to london, to here. All in a weeks work. Yes. Thank you well see you in just a little bit. In the meantime the major u. S. Averages have recovered about 60 of the post brexit losses. Dow and s p climbing back into positive territory. Joining us is mark travis. He is chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager. June yan emmanuel. There is a bit of a debate that is taking place. Which camp do either of you fall into. Are you in the camp this was not a huge deal and it has come back or are you in the camp that looks at this as another potential financial crisis across the globe. We have to step back and say in crisis there are two elements. Danger and opportunity. The first few days after the referendum, the markets sensed the danger of it and clearly there is danger if there is an inaction, but i think what weve seen after the last couple of days is politicians are taking a step back. I think this is a wakeup call for the European Union. Theres going to have to be some sort of restructures. We heard that from one of the potential candidates this morning for Prime Minister in the uk and its an evolving process, but in the end, this could be something that moves the political process forward. And could end up being as weve seen in the u. S. , an net positive on balance. Mark, what do you think. I think prices fall quicker than they go up. That was evidenced early this week. Our firm depends on a dislocation between price and value. So we look at this is an opportunity to put some capitol work. Even with the rebound that weve seen over the last couple of days. Well, i was active in the market on monday. So i think that taking a step back further, weve made very little forward progress here today. Year over year, the markets depending which index, flat to negative. The rustle 2,000 was off double digits a s and trailing 12 mont its not been a great environment for equity investors. You think thats the case particularly with the rustle 2,000. Weve gone through a very benign low volatile period. You have many people going to a passive index which will create its own imbalances. You mean the s p 500. Any type of index. We have a lot of products in the etfs in my opinion that are ill suited for being an perks tf. High yield bond. We saw that last august. Im positively expecting there will be opportunities. Its been an interesting year. A good year for us, but we need volatility to take advantage of it. Julian, let me ask you, you think this is a situation where cooler heads will prevail in which case this is not cause for ala alarm, but what do you think about valuations where they stand . We havent made much progress, but we are not far from highs either. You have to think in a number of ways. The benefit as weve seen over the last week is the Interest Rate markets, if any, are going to stay subdued. That certainly works in stocks favor. In terms of valuation, no question we are high by standards of the post financial crisis, but we are still two full turns thats 200 points in the s p or below average market peaks. Thats again compared to a ten year yield of 1. 5 or lower. Thats in comparison with bonds. Right. We are not concerned overly with valuation here. Particularly when you look at all the volatility in the currency market. If dollar is still largely unchanged over the last year and oil is recovered those will both be tail winds for irnearnings gg forward. I want to thank you both for coming in. When we return we get a new reed on the china economy. The numbers are surprise comply up beet. We have details about that straight ahead. Well also take a little clinton trump on that issue as well. Amazing sleep stays with you all day and all night. Sleep number beds with Sleepiq Technology give you the knowledge to adjust for the best sleep ever. Dont miss the lowest prices of the season going on now, with our bestbuy rated c2 Queen Mattress now only 699. 99. Know better sleep. Only at a sleep number store. Welcome back to squawk box. The yawn is trading at the lowest level in more than five years. Joining us now to talk china trade. I want to talk to you about clinton and trumps position on trade with china because youve heard a lot from them recently. Miller is here. You say the numbers are better than we expected. Yes. After six months of seeing some of the worst numbers weve ever seen, things look better. Its clear on quarter improvement. The mixed picture on year, but on quarter. Where are the numbers wrong before and were getting a better new read on all of this or things are actually picking up. Things are picking up. You have two different dynamics. Fourth quarter start of this trend of extraordinary weakness and some of it wasnt reflecting official data. You saw capital outflow crisis. You saw all the other worries about china in the last six months. These affected the business environment. We saw improvement since then and also saw it show up in the data. The combination has been good for the number. Put china in context with what weve been dealing with, the word brexit, the last week. Theres question whether china is a winner in all of this. Its going to be a winner. It can make friends that need friends rights now. Economically its unclear. Theyre going to have pressure through the currency channel. Brexit is not going to directly affect china. The problem is it does some thing to other people, to japan, makes the dollar go crazy and that puts tremendous pressure on china to do something stupid. When you say china do something stupid. Lay out some possibilities of that. Confuse people on the currency. So we saw something. Dwre yes, the Yuan Movement has been more dramatic in the last few days. Not looking for large devaluation. Every time the currency moves back and forth, traders get an si and say this could be our big shot to make the trade. What is the view in china about the implications of donald trump or Hillary Clinton giving some of the antiglobalization, antitrade comments that have come out from both, trump being harsher than clinton. Its weird because of all the antichina rhetoric, i think people think trump is hate instead china. I think a lot of people in china see donald trump, they see a negotiator. They say Hillary Clinton, we know shes going to be maintain to us. Donald trump wants to make a deal. Lets look at donald trump as an interesting opportunity. I think they are actually more protrump than clinton. Is the south china see south of china. They think hes so stupid he doesnt know where the South China Sea is . Youre that much smarter than he is . You got 5 billion, 1 brett lawrie billion thats a political issue. About china. Im not a smart guy i figure i could probably figure where that is. How do you factor the u. S. Elections into whatever you think is going to happen to china in their future . It sounds like both sides no matter who win ss going to try to make a better deal or at least a more add venn tajs deal for the u. S. You can lay out the political case and talk about how the United States may be more or less active in asia. Whether the Alliance System with japan, korea, taiwan will suffer, but from an economic standpoint, china is on a longterm slow down. Thats going to happen regardless of who is in the white house. As a result they will be reacting to the own domestic issues. To some degree, domestic crisis. This is apart from who is running the United States government. That said the degree to which the two can get along and the potential for conflict will be dictated. Before you go, one last final question, yesterday we were talking about how its been very hard for the globalist if you will to articulate to the American Public the benefits of it. Do you have a way of doing it . Ghaichb you studied china and the benefits of trade there. Look, its a really difficult case to make. Even if everybody is better in the long run overall. Theres always losers. There has to be a rethinking of how betrayed globalization all these other things are presented because right now the average person on the street is saying this is not for me. This is not helping. Now the latest numbers on this have been abysmal. Nice to hear that china is rebounding a little bit. When we come back today is the last day for conservatives to announce running for Prime Ministers. Plus jimmy johns is looking for a hero. We have the details next. Right now as we head to break, take a look at s p 500 winners and losers. This is shaving. Blades here, blades there. Some more over there. Whoa thats not a blade. This is shielding. With lubrication before and after the blades. Shields from irritation for a close,

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