In a moment. In the meantime take a look at u. S. Equity futures. Dow was down a couple of points yesterday. Looks like s p up and nasdaq up by 14. Lets take a look at stocks to watch today. Shares of rack space. Market valuation of 3 billion before the report of a possible sale. Fire yief announcing plans to layoff workers. Missed its own forecast of the company cut its full year outlook. Zynga releasing a weak outlook. Active users fell. And restaurant chain poe yolo co. Matched the estimates and what is that now, up 8 yesterday. Lets take a look at the broader markets this morning. We showed you the futures are in positive territory. If you take a look at the early markets in europe. There are gains there once again. Looks like the dax is up bailey. The cac is up half a percent and the ftse after the gains we saw in the market there yesterday as the bank of england voted not only to ease Interest Rates by 25 basis points, but also to add a lot of additional quantitative easing and other stimulus. That market up by about a quarter percent. Overnight in asia, you could see looks like the nikkei was down, but just barely. It was down less than 1 point. Shanghai comp down one point. The kud oil was the big story yesterday. Back within striking distance of 42. Giving back a little of those gains this morning. Still a lot of cushion between 40 and where wti stands right now. This is the story ive been watching to closely. I still cant get over it. The 10year treasury yielding und under. Back to people who said the brexit didnt matter, guess what it mattered and awful lot. It matter ds when we start looking at yields. We may think the fed is going to say, okay, were going to stand pat on this. Its the only place you can get a positive yield for treasury. Well keep a close eye on this. Mark grant is joining us later this morning. Take a look at the currency boards. The pound right now 1. 3162. Euro 1. 11. The dollar yen at 100. 96. If you take a look at whats been happening in gold prices. Up barely this morning, but still has been gaining ground for many months at this point. One more look at testimony futures ahead of todays job report, and, again, green arrows at this point with the dow futuring up 30. S p up 4. 5 and the nasdaq up almost 14. Im just looking here, becky, we were at 67 on the twoyear going into the boe announcement. Now its down once again this morning. And 154 on the 10year treasury. Lets get back to the main event july job report. Joining us now rkmichelle. What number are you looking for and what number do you think is the aurm thats good for the market. Lets see, when youve got a forecast of 195 overall and 180 when i was talking before the show, truthfully, i think the trend is probably slightly below the 150 market although when i look at it sector by sector the number is coming in stronger this month. You wouldnt be surprised. No. I think were looking at a slower trajectory for employment growth. Part of it is lack of supply. There is some settling back. Its typical to see at this point in the cycle. Weve certainly seen it on the Business Investment side. Given the uncertainty globally. Margin says lets wait a couple of months and see how things go before we had a lot more workers. What about whats happening with yields right now and how they effect youre view of the value of stocks right now. So certainly yields are low and we think going lower. This whole postbrexit environment, we thought it would be a play into a couple of typical haven, strong dollar lower treasury yields, weaker oil prices. All of that has played out. When you look at equities in that context, youve got this sort of tina argument. There is no alternative. One of the things weve seen has been investors who absolutely starve for yield are going into this big low beta dividend players and thats where the flows have been at least in the first seven months of the year thats where a lot of returns have been. If we get good news on jobs, will that be bad news for stocks today or good news. This is only one data point. Were a little more conservative than michelle. The claims data has been fine. Were fine with all of that. The important thing is that were another month away from that stench in may when we only have 11,000 jobs. Just word of caution, the august number thats coming up which well see a month from now. August is the quirkiest month of the calendar and historically you end up getting a flash miss of about 70,000 jobs for a bunch of different reasons. While todays number of is going to be fine, the august number could be a little quirky. No rate hike in september. Exactly. Help me. I cant live this way. I cant wake up in the morning and change my view of the world. I mean, like our senior producer is very down today. We need to get him up. Figure out a way, becky. How do you take a step back, get off this roller coaster, give me the broader view of the economy. Say this number vm numbis weak r strong today, are you going to change your view of the world. No, but we talk about stepping back month to month. We are seeing a slower trend in payroll growth. That actually corresponds with some softening in general. The economy overall has lost a bit of momentum i think. Were growing at closer to 2 growth pace. I want to challenge you on that a little bit. I have this 2 view and i wouldnt normally get depressed about the second number. They downgraded the quarters. It looks like the gdp data were closer to 1 economy than 2 economy. Digging deeper and stripping out the noise of inventories and maybe even trade and looking at consumer and business spendsing, the domestic private economy, i think is where you can easily see were growing at a closer to 2 or 2. 5 pace. Thats a step down somewhat by about a half a percent from where we were. So for me it does feel like weve stepped off a little. Back to the good news back news thing. At 830 im always trying to figure out where the market is going to go. What im a little worried about. What if its under 100,000. If its under thats bad news, but if its a little above its good news. Again, first of all, i dont think people are realistically thinking the fed is going to go in september. Theres a little bit less pressure. We are clearly looking ahead chltd and if you saw a number sub 100, that would certainly reinforce concerns that people like myself had. Right. What does the market do on that. Thats my concern. If the market looks at this and thinking oh, my gosh. Were not pulling out of that 11,000 number for may. Maybe were not going long. Certainly if this number is a disaster that thakes the fed ou of the equation in september. Writing articles in the journal the fed is thinking about september. Youve got to understand where his source is coming from. Funny im not writing that for cnbc. Why is that . What we havent seen the whole brexit thing completely unfold. Thats a concern we dont know what the fed is going to do. Have to see how that plays out. As michelle has pointed out, the economy from a gdp standpoint has ratcheted down here. Not just missing last week, but three of the last four quarters were sharply lower. A much slower trajectory right now. If todays is around that consensus. What is a dissas terre. Two months ago we just had one. What if its 250. We could have that conversation from our perspective our the claims data which have been close to a 40 year low and the adp number which was fine. So from our perspective it would be inconceivable we have a sub 100 k number. We could have made that argument in may as well. Just im only looking at the glass half empty. What if it is 250,000, is that a disaster too because it puts pressure on the feds. The fed is thinking hard about september. I think too you can understand weve had speakers themselves still says we could get one or two hikes this year. Certainly the fed wants to keep optionality in there. I think that was dubbish in the sense they hear them talk about one. A rate hike. Of course San Francisco fed saying even two are possible this year which was so incredible to me on the other side you can push that away as well. So i could see the fed wanting the keep optionality open flaes that they do end up feeling this year its going to be appropriate to move. Ting hurdle is very high. I dont think fed chair yellen who has a much more global per speck tifr ulative is feeling t urgency to act. Even if we do get strong job numbers. More people working is always good. Its not bad. The fed is going to have the ambiguity of weak gdp numbers. That might be enough. I think they were revised in august one time. Youre not going be in a place where you feel like the economy is. You have weak business numbers. We havent seen that outside of recession. There are things the fed dmesically have to be somewhat concerned about along with all of the other global krnls that vz be pressing all along that have kept them from moving. Give me shom investment ideas here. One other issue thats important to this talking about the fundamentals that the fed is thinking about. Weve gone back and done a study and looked at the post par history of the Federal Reserve. Theres a very strong per pond refinance here in the period of labor day to election, the fed prefers to be out of the market. Theyre going to front end load changes, back end load changes, but they dont want to impact the economy of the markets before the election. So the data has to be really strong to dictate they need to do something. Thanks to michelle and to bill. Thank you. Little bit of political news, a new nbc wall street journal poll out showing that Hillary Clintons lead growing over donald trump. John harwood joins us now in Dallas Keuchel with t d. C. With the details. Confirms the results of other polls since the convention showing Donald Trumps support declining and Hillary Clinton lead growing. Before the two political conventions Hillary Clinton led by five. Now she leads by nine. 47 to 38 over donald trump. If you include the third party candidate, she still holds a 9 point lead. They dont hurt her lets look at president ial qualities and see how people are evaluating the candidates. On the economy, plus four. On handling crime, plus eight, but Hillary Clinton has advantages on those more typically associated with president s on being commander in chief, 11 points. On handling a crisis, 18 points. On caring about people like you, 16 points. On handling foreign policy, 26 point edge. So donald trump is in a difficult position now. We have republican candidates for congress distancing themselves. One adam king ger of illinois has rejected the candidacy. Mike hoffman in colorado has an add up now saying he doesnt like donald trump. Hes going to stand up to trump thchlt is a moment when he gives a speech to the Economic Club on monday really badly needs a reset because hes in a position thats very difficult to come back from right now, guys. I dont know if you saw this story in the New York Times today about donald trump and the economy and i wanted to ask you about it in terms of his ability whether he wins or loses to potentially reshape the way the Republican Party has thought b about economics historically. This piece suggests theres a new group of people called the reform a cons rejecting additional tax cuts. Theyre promoting the benefit of trade. Theyre ruling out privatizing things likes seth smith and medicare. How much of this do you think is real. Well, the reform con movement is real. Theres no evidence that donald trump is attached to any movement whatsoever. His message is donald trump. So to the extent there is overlap between him and any faction of the Republican Party, traditionalists on tax cuts at the top or on not touching entitlements or other things that reform cons might lean toward as a way to appealing to more middle class voters, theres no reason to think that any of this is important to trump personally. So you cant really talk about reshaping the Republican Party for somebody who is fundamentally about himself. So i dont see trump reshaping the Republican Party. I see him as an idiosyncratic event that is highlighting the trends in our politics and our culture that he is going to go away at some point and the Republican Party has to figure out what there is after that. One quick question, i know the professor has a question too. Were going g getting jobs numbers, how do you think those numbers whether theyre good or bad work into this, especially given not just this particular month, but i dont know if you heard the last interview suggesting that august is usually unique and comes in remarkably low and how that plays into all of this. Honestly, i dont think they matter at all. Were on a trend of moderate job growth and so whether its 180 or 110 or 210, i dont think that changes how people think about the economy at this point. And they certainly wont change how people think about donald trump versus Hillary Clinton. Very quickly. Im remind ed i think of the led that john ker riry had for a wh. There have been double digit leads that have been overcome. How serious is this for donald trump . Wom well, there havent been double digit leads overcome in the modern area. In 1976 jimmy carter came out with a lead and gerald ford made it close. Barack obama never led mitt romney by 10 points. He may have led john mccain by ten points and ended up winning by seven of. We havent had a president ial race that was decided by double digits since 1984. Its difficult to come back from a deficit of this magnitude. Pretty good. You didnt know this was coming and you had all the numberings right at your fingertips. What was the actual percentage number, do you remember . I believe Ronald Reagan got 59. And since then, president George Hw Bush won. President obama won by about seven by double digit leads are not common in our politics anymore. The reason is the country is evenly divided and democrats and republicans are so fixed in their views and that i recall diminished number of swing voters its hard to move the numbers. Thats why a president ial Approval Ratings dont go as high as they used to go because youre not going to see the voters of the other party credit the president in power. Absent an extraordinary event like 9 11, you dont see numbers oscillate quite that much. Thats why its so unusual how low president bush fell at the end of his term. Its donald trump is an extremely deep hole right now in ra New Hampshire poll we talked yesterday morning where hes behind 15 points, hes only getting 63 of republicans. If you cant get more than twothirds of your party, thats a recipe for a catastrophic loss. John, thank you. You bet. Let the games begin. The Opening Ceremony for the olympics kicks off tonight. The games are a big opportunity as you can imagine for advertisers and olympic partners. Going to join us next how Companies Get the most bang for their buck in rio. Squawk returns in just a moment. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Olympics kicks off right here on nbc. The games are one of the biggest opportunities for brands to get their products in front of consumers. Joining us now is howard. President of kneelson skbramt. Good morning. Is this olympics going be the biggest ever again in terms of ratings and audience. Theres a lot of speculation about it. We wont know until it actually happens. Were not in the business of predicting big things like that. Ky tell you personally i cant wait to see it. I cant wait to tune into stuff. Its highly anticipated. I love the opening ceremonies every time. The parade of nations. Its going be one of the most watched parts of the olympics. No question about that. Doey she people are going to watch this year. Every year we get further away from Technology Becomes more advanced and people are watching on the phone and stuff like that, how does it change this year. Its going reflect a lot of whats going on in media. Personally when im watching. Im a fan of football. When im watching football. Im watching one screen with the game and another screen stats and im watching my switwitter feed. Exactly. Show have you changed howd you measure for brands the impact because you do have the sortd of two and sometimes three screens going on at one time. We are big on measuring the consumption through the things and being able to see the programming through. Sports is a gigantic business. I think worldwide its about a 325 billion business. That includes media rates. Apparel business is 125 billion business. When you add media on top of that, its kind of butting up against half a trillion dollar business. Its really, really big. Brands are making gigantic bets on sports. Naming rights on stadiums can be a billion dollars. Those numbers are out there. Over 60 billion is spent around sportds. Its probably the most valuable advertising Industrial Media there is. This year 93 of the top 100 rated Television Shows will be sports events, which is pretty a astounding. Thats up dramatically from about 14. So thats the way its going. The most watched show in the history of television was the World Cup Final in 2014. Which was seen by over a billion people. Thats a big number. I want to go back to the measuring piece though. If nike calls you up and says i want you to measure how far the brand reaches during this particular next two weeks, for example. Yes. Its not just whats going to happen on tv and the radio. Some of these athletes are going to be tweeting and some are tweeting and being paid to tweet about the sneerns and then theres going to be fans on top of that some of whom will include images. How does that work on your end . Im just curious. We try to measure all the ways that Media Consumption happens. Certainly on television and raid you talk about, but more and more whats going on the other screen. Its mentioned or what happens if its an image. They wont understand all that. He wants to understand whats really being capture. Dewayne so we measure most of that stuff right now and increasingly were getting smr sophisticated with measurement and brands really want to understand this stuff. Right. Before you came on we talked about the end score. It used to be the q rating now theres the n rating. Yes