Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140320 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street March 20, 2014

Note. As for the european markets lets go to the map. There is more red than green on the screen today. Mirroring really what we saw in the United States post the yellen News Conference. Our roadmap today starts with the markets. Stocks under pressure again after sliding during janet yell yellens First Press Conference yesterday. Is it all about interpretation . Well explain. Plus, Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to go bearish on china slashing its Growth Outlook for the next couple of years well tell you why . And how about lennar and underarmor as well the Companies Making big moves thus far this morning and, of course, nike reports after the bell this afternoon. Well go behind those numbers and tell you everything you need to know. Well, its the message heard round the market world. Courtesy of janet yellen in yesterdays News Conference following the fomc meeting the fed chair said the period between the end of the feds bondbuying program and the first rate increase from the central bank could be six months. That indicates a potential rate hike in early 2015. The language that we used in this statement is considerable period. So, i you know, this is the kind of term its hard to define, but, you know, probably means something on the order of around six months or that type of thing. But, you know, it depends what the statement is saying is it depends what conditions you like. Jim, many Market Participants went into the fed meeting expecting to hear the dove and the hawk showed up at least in the ears of some. And therein lies the problem is the interpretation of exactly what janet yellen was saying yesterday. Shes kind of like a dawk. I went through the coverage and i went through the New York Times and the wall street journa journal, heres investors business daily the usa today, and the Financial Times and they all have a different story. Its interesting. Some of the stories have within the story heres investors business daily repeated the pledge rates sustained near zero. Next line rates are going higher. What we have is a genuine confusion which can, of course, trigger what the usa today calls right on their front page a stocks yellen speaks, stocks swoon, how about yellen speaks we dont know what she said. She speaks with listen, were going to raise rates, fed Officials Say rates are going up and you read 2. 25 number, holy cow, 2. 25, you end up saying ill sell because the only reason were up this high is the rates are low. Thats a big prediliction for a lot of people and then ill look at it later and i think thats whats happening. I got to tell you if you go through the press reports you dont get a lot of confidence. I dont know why she didnt say youre a sports fan, youre a sports fan, look, thats next season. I dont want to look through this game. But she may not be as nfl oriented as you and i are. One of the Big Questions going through the meeting and her first fed News Conference was how effective it would be because bernanke had difficulty communicating with the market. Were back to the old regime to what did they say . I thought the Financial Times headlines was interesting, yellen slip. I heard rookie gaffe written in some articles. Well, when i read these things i think that theyre too harsh. Yes, did she need to say six months . Wouldnt it have been better to say as to stick with the data dependent. The six months suddenly gave people something to hang a hat on. I can understand why bonds would trade. Is it a rookie gaffe, let me take it another side, which if it turns out we get closer, do you know what im not going to be bound by the six months then Interest Rates go lower. Maybe she did what we want stock people to do. We want them to unpromise, ceo, stock oriented ceos underpromise and overdeliver, hey, listen, six months, i dont know, maybe it should be nine months. I think shes given us a range. I think those that sold are many people who believe that the reason why were up here is because of the fed. And i can understand that. But i dont think were up here because of that. I think were up here because of profits. Its a fundamental ideological difference between those that want the fed out and if the fed goes out theyll sell and other people say, listen, if the datas good and profit goes up and stocks go up. Either way you are not looking at a hike in Interest Rates until early 2015. Were in 2014, so were looking down the road. And from the statement i wrote down the comment from the statement because theres nothing in this quote that i want your reaction to that leads you to believe that policy has changed in any dramatic way whatsoever. Economic conditions may for some time warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the fed views as normal in the long run. That says rates are going to stay long for a long time. I once had an interview with bob reuben who used to be my boss at goldman who was treasury secretary and he said at the outset of the interview which is what yellen should have said, if uf think theres any news in this interview, if you think im giving you anything different from what ive said to anybody else if you think this statement is of any use to you other than all previous statements, then i know you dont know how to be a journalist. Want to that be great if she started with that . Those that take me out of context would be wrong. Because i think she totally kept with bernanke. She should have taken a page from bob reuben. This is one of the challenges in the new fed if you will with an era of transparency where they have the News Conferences. Youre not relying on the statement which was parsed six ways to sunday. Right. And now you get the comment on print and you get the comment from mouth and they can look like two different things. Yes. It becomes more difficult to interpret. It is. Im not saying that russia went to glasnost and went back to dictatorship and maybe we should go from glasnost to bernanke back to dick tatorshidictatorsh. Its more difficult to maneuver. Had she had said instead of six months and followed or consistent with what weve been saying, i think what would have happened is people would have sold the market and then bought it back. As we can admit it wasnt much of a correction yet. Lets not go nuts. It wasnt that much. At the point it was down 200 and rallied back to down 100 or so. But even so you think maybe you should wait until the rubble sort of settles before you take a stab at the market here or what . Look, theres two markets again. Paylocity, okay . Paylocity . A cloudbased play. Cloud. If you can use the word cloud and software as a service, those four words theres another one today that well have the ceo on this very program has the magic word in it. It opened up 40 . Oh, no, thats not. Scripps says it opens up 40 . Well probably have to wait for that. In the meantime the real cloud plays are doing terribly. Thats the two markets. Theres the market of the non lets say salesforce. Com were to go private today and come public tomorrow, it would open up 20 . Im just say spg the traditional cloud plays arent keeping place with the brandnew cloud plays and that means froth. Salesforce, interesting. It reported, the stock went from 67 to 68 and its never looked up again. Mark benioff the king as software as a service cloud. And these lets say i dont want to use the word pawn plays. How about bishop cloud not secular. Knight cloud plays and game of throne, they look, no, they go sideways. These arent in the league of the companies in cloud that cant get out of their own way and thats worrisome. What may be worrisome as well, jim, to others in the market today is goldmans outlook on china because it has revised its 2014 growth forecast for that country now dunn to 7. 3 gdp from 7. 6 , the firm says both trade and consumption disappointed in the first two months of the year. Theyre looking at sequential growth to 5 from 6. 7 . I mean, people have been concerned about china for a long time. Now goldman says, well, maybe its time for the numbers really to come down. Barely 48 hours ago you and i had a conversation. We said when are the estimates going to come down for china so they can beat them. This is the beginning. This is the bar being reset, so when the numbers come out we can say, oh, yeah, thats in line. Im surprised everyone has to do this and someone ought to take it to 6. 8 , you always got to get a low man so that guy can say china better than expected. Im not kidding, baltic freight has literally climbed almost every day and copper obviously telling the other side of the story. People are searching for knowledge about china. I think if china estimates come down we can get a more level playing field. You wonder at some point if they as we talked about the other day lose the seven handle and start to have a more realistic tone of six. 6 point something. And lets not lose sight of the fact that we had jobless claims today that i regarded as being pretty good. Not so good that shell say five months rather than six months. Well play the month game. But i do think that china more realistic expects as makes it so every piece of data comes out of china doesnt kill us. Right now china comes out they can do beijing, within tiananmen square, zillow, you know, down. Literally its that granular. We got to get out of the granularity of china and start focusing on the macro of the United States which is pretty good. And to your point, lennar out with earnings. Look at that. Following kb yesterday. From a Macro Economic stand point here that gives you more reason to be optimistic about whats happening in the economy here, doesnt it . Yes. New orders up 10 . New dollar values up 27 . These are numbers. We wrote out housing, what, a couple of months ago we decided Spring Season was bad. Were not even in todays the first day of spring, congratulations. Thank you. Hope it matters. I still have a winter coat, by the way, which is absurd. Spring technically doesnt start until 12 57 so its going to warm up between now and, you know, by the end of the halftime show. Its going to be spring. You mean it happens during the halftime . It does. I hope you have carl icahn on versus ackman debating when spring begins. When i look at the lennar numbers, okay, kb homes, was it an outlier, no. Very california oriented. Remember, based in l. A. There are hedge funds, we always get emails and the hedge funds are predont nameminantly sayin what kb and lennar says. Who are we supposed to listen to . I had spencer rosscroft, zillow, hes the keeper of the numbers. Not caseshiller. Hes on his hand held how the country is doing. And rates are rates are going to climb a little because demand is very strong. Pricings up a little bit. Spencer raskoff im adopting zillow numbers and no longer doing caseshiller. Its too powerful. When do the Home Builders themselves become a buy . Even the ceo of lennar said its too soon to predict what will happen with the spring selling season. Stuart miller is a great ceo and hes trying to set expectations a little bit lower. Those stocks have been on a tear. Toll bottomed, kb was up, kb was up a buck 29 and then it was only un80 cents when yellen used the sixmonth comment and as cooler head prevailed it goes back up to a dollar, but what im saying these stocks have already been on the move. I dont want to chase them. I dont mind being in on the stuff in the home, lets do whirlpool. Fortune homes the brands and security, those all work for me. Sherman williams timely upgrade yesterday by Morgan Stanley. These stocks are not expensive. Did you really just get off a plane . Yeah. I dont believe it. I dont believe it. You slept in your own bed last night. No way it could possibly happen. No, i was on seat 4d. The rest of the team was in the back somewhere. I dont know where they were. Steerage, they were in steerage. Its like the not the titanic, because we got home. Coming up sally smith with her game plan about big business in march madness, but first starbucks what a moment that was. Starbucks and oprah making a brewing connection. See what the companys Ceo Howard Schultz told jim about that. Lets take another look at the futures a day after the fed. Still an implied open that looks negative. Down 50 for the dow. The s p and the nasdaq look like they will be negative off the open as well. More squawk on the street live from post nine at the New York Stock Exchange when we come back. About life insurance. But when we start worrying about tomorrow, we miss out on the things that matter today. At axa, we offer advice and help you break down your insurance goals into small, manageable steps. Because when you plan for tomorrow, it helps you live for today. Can we help you take a small step . For advice, retirement, and life insurance, connect with axa. For advice, retirement, and life insurance, a 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable, professional. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] woman [laughs] no way that really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro, you just dont know. Cfp work with the highest standard. I feel good i knew that i would now i feel good i knew that i would now i cannot give you anything other than to say stay tuned and put the seat belts on. Starbucks Ceo Howard Schultz wasnt kidding when he gave jim cramer that message on this program. Hours after that interview the company made lots of news at its annual Shareholder Meeting including plans to debut oprah chai, set to go on sale in the u. S. And canada on april 29th and heres what mr. Schultz told jim last night. Tea is a 90 billion global category that we believe has been commoditized and ripe for innovation. When we started thinking about how are we really going to transform sea we discovered that oprah is passionate about tea and chai. That was schultzs one more thing moment bit it was a big moment for those that were there. Yeah. I thought it was. Let me just explain. Because we debated it honestly as it happens. We debated it, would oprah do for tea what she was able to do for uggs. Uggs was 25, 30 stock. Oprah went all in and that stock quadrupled. Could she move the needle for tea given the fact that shes no longer as visible. I think thats an issue. We ran a documentary if i recall on this network, jim, the oprah effect, right . I always got her christmas the christmas issue and we recommend the stocks that she endorsed. Cnbc potential 25 contender as is howard. So, she has impact. Heres what i think is interesting. If this is, like, the Oprah Book Club, then this will be a top ten seller. Weve all been trying to figure out when is howard going to make his move with teavana, and its a drive along with food and mobile payments and along with consumer packaged goods, along with handcrafted soda along with basically what i would regard as being the worldwide penetration of tea because those tea drinkers, many of them in other countries not the United States. Is there a halo effect to this meeting . The stock started moving up frankly during your interview. I thought it would sell off frankly, i thought it would sell off when it was opera and not the determination that cocacola is joining forces with starbucks to develop a worldwide domination plan. It was just oprah. But, you know, when you look in the room and you talk with people, there is no just oprah. Oprah is the partner you most want to have if you want something in the house. And this matters. It matters because tea has puzzled everyone. Why . Can it really be big . Oprahs big, tea can be big. Is it additive to the numbers now, no. Will we revert to the issue was coffee, no, because what howard said in the interview which was great, focus on the price of coffee. He said if you want to worry about something, its dairy short term the stock give up some of its gains, probably so. It was a pilgrimage like the pilgrimage to omaha, i should hopefully one day if youre howard theres a pilgrimage to omaha and buffett, but do you know what, i think it matters. I think she matters. She has always mattered. Those who underestimate opera, how have they done . You short opera, hows it done . Shorting opera is kind of like shorting the s p. Shorting the dow at 9000 not been a smart bet. Shorting netflix for a while. Shorting tesla . Did you almost go there . I did. Its not shorting 3d printers thats probably a good call. Where is the kermit video when you need it. Up next its cramers mad dash. Lets look at the futures, it looks like a down open. More from the New York Stock Exchange straight ahead. Ge stra. Especially if youre thinking of moving an old 401 k to a fidelity ira. It gives you a wide range of investment options. And the free help you need to make sure your investments fit your goals and what youre really investing for. Tap into the full power of your fidelity green line. Call today and well make it easy to move that old 401 k to a fidelity rollover ira. No two people have the same financial goals. Pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. Talk to a pnc investments Financial Advisor today. Because im happy clap along if you feel like a room without a roof along if you feel that happiness is the truth seven minutes before the opening bell and time now for cramers mad dash ahead of the market open. X1. Wow, this was one, this is a 3d pribter it will be down badly. The revenues were down a quarter to a quarter of the link quarter. Really disappointing. Remember, this is a bit of a cult. The people who were part of the cult never believed they are part of a cult. They believed that they are solid investors. Listen up cultists or solid investors hewlettpackard is also talking about the commercialization of 3d obviously for the longest time people are saying when is hewlett going to move in. They have an israeli skunk works that has always been considered going down the next 3d. Had is also going to hurt 3d, ddd. The stock that has just the king. One year. Rises like its sherpas here, mallory and we got what im saying here is this is one of the worst head and shoulders plays ive ever seen. 3d when i was doing my book sig

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