Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140704 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange July 4, 2014

Amazon. Defending the Online Retail giants tax affairs. And americans celebrate fourth of july. Will scotland be getting its own Independence Day . Celebrate 35 days ahead of the crucial referendum. Announcer youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Concerns have been expressed regarding the historical low Central Banks easing pressure. The bundes Bank President says the ecb needs tone sure rates and not kept too low for too long. Speaking at the same conference, he said governments across the eurozone should not view the kurnlt environment as an invitation. The emphasis should be on reforms which promote growth and productivity. And korea isnt the only one concern. President draghi had this to say. The Exchange Rate is a different issue. There, to some extent, there are many factors that influence the Exchange Rate. And i dont want to dwell on each one of them. The low levels of inflation, extremely low levels of Interest Rates do have an effect on the interest rate. It was if you look at the four months ago, it was higher than it is today. So but its a problem. Because as they say, it affects the or objective of price stability. Across on European Markets this morning, now into the trading session. We are looking at some losses for the major indexes stoxx europe 600 most major markets are in negative territory this morning. The stoxx 600 tracking lower by 0. 1 . But the individual markets are giving this picture. The cac weaker by 0. 1 , tts if it is mib weaker by 0. 4 . Some of the top corporate stories that were keeping an eye on for you this morning, we are seeing large moves in the individual stockses. Ersta group is down over 13 . The bank says it now expects a net loss this year 1. 4 billion euros. Dont forget erstes performance is dragging down some of the austrian stocks. The bank saying its remaining operations are doing well. This is startling because it has been a very strong story for erste in that part of the world. It has banked a lot of its fortunes on the growth story there. Elsewhere in the airline space, easyjet taking off this morning. You can see the shares popping nearly 3 currently. The Company Reported a 10. 1 jump in traffic. That means the firm carried 6. 1 million passengers last month. Lets move on to asian markets. It has been a decent session across the board. The msci broad index of asia pacific says that japan has reached its highest play level. The individual markets are mostly firm. 24r the chinese stock market trading lower by 0. 2 . The japanese stock market respond to go that push we saw in the u. S. Dollar. Its finally arrived. Many people have been waiting for. Hong kong drifting higher, 0. 6 of . Dont forget some of the Commodity Prices that have been patchy in the last 4 hours. On bond markets, this is particular across the board. There is a bit of movement at the short end of the curve in particular. The european mblths here, though, as we saw, mario draghi kept all the measures on the table. That meant we saw some lower yields across the board this morning. 11. 27 . 1. 6. The italian market, up 2. 8 . Foreign exchange markets, the dollar has been one were keeping track on in the way of that job support. There is some number that crossed 288,000 jobs in the month. Down 0. 2 . The yen down a similar amount. The aussie is still gaining to the u. S. Dollar. Dont forget, it has come off some of the peaks, 94 levels that have been on the boards. 171. 50. Pound under a little bit of pressure, as well. The back of the bumper jobs report, some people are saying its not enough. We should have seen a greater jump in the u. S. Dollar. Well, i think that you need to look into the labor markets report. They should improve. Theres a lot of change the euphoric within the fed. Now, what we have is Stronger Economic activity. That may meanness yellen is expect expecting the pick up of Inflation Numbers recently. She wanted to get the confirmation wires of age data. Having said that, i think the u. S. Economy is escaping the loss. That implies that is well respected in our trading policy. It is time to buy dollar. First you will do that against the lower yielding counter part. You could take those currencies into account where Central Banks recently changed, too. Now, when you look into and i guess thats a very important xamp here. At the start of this year, we expect that should be the weakest currency for this year. And the the action of the central bank made it very clear. The transition between growth and inflation. It is deflationary. Its a deflationary environment taking place there. So, again, dollar is long against selective currency. We expect the u. S. Dollar strength of venezuela reaching other parts of the currency spectrum. If youre looking at the trade of the u. S. Dollar versus a bunch of different crosses of here, is it better to be playing the nordics . Even though weve seen extraordinary measures announced in june. The market now has a few doubts as to what is next in the policy talk. That is absolutely right. But you have to consider if you just wait for central bankers to say something, you will be always behind the curve. That is actually to establish ourselves. We are on the policy position in place then when the central bankers are talking when they are changing their rate profile as we have seen that in sweden. And the way to do that is you need to auto into private sector debt. When you have a high level of private sector debt, you know it may change the behavior of the participants in that economy. The higher the debt level is, the more the participants may be restricted in economic activity. That has become very visible in swede. And what we look into, too, is try to figure out what is the sensitivity of the economy to increase the debt. Now, when youre in the early stage of increasing your debt levels and under those circumstances you have high multiplying effects. Now in many of these economies with high debt levels, the multiplying effects are declining. And the efficiency of that is declining. That is where the deflationary pressures come on. In some cases like sweden, this reaction comes as a surprise to many. We are looking at debt levels in many ways. And i guess it has to come by now very clear that the Financial Stability angle is the wrong angle to take. Hans, weve got plenty more and theres much more to delve into after the ecb meeting yesterday. Stay with us. Still plenty to come on the show. Protests once again with egypt on the anniversary of the removing of president mohamed morsi. Handily gamble joins us on the set with the latest right after the break. K. We have news crossing from the russian president. Putin says russia and the u. S. Are both responsible for global peace. Putin says he hopes to improve relationships with the United States despite some of the differences. So a soothing message coming from putin. But dont forget theres been a bunch of different disputes in the region. The u. S. Employers add 288,000 jobs in june while the Unemployment Rate dipped to 6. 1 . That is the lowest level since 2008. And the response sent markets higher in yesterdays trade. The dow hitting 17,000 points for the first time ever. Cnbcs josh lipton sent us this report on the momentous trading day. Another record day for the markets. The dow closing by 17,000 for the first time. Ending the day up 92 points. The s p rising nearly 11 points, closing at a record high of 1985 and the nasdaq up to 4485. This fuels a big rounds in the job market. The u. S. Economy atting 44,000 jobs in june. Making it the best stretch of job creation since the 1990s. Walgreens sales rising sharply. The pharmacy chain reported prescription drugs up more than 13 last month. That drove their stocks forward today up 1. 3 . And americans are hitting the road for the fourth of july. More than 30 Million People in the u. S. Expected to drive more than 50 miles this weekend. Aaa saying one gallon of unleaded gasoline costs an average of 3. 67, the highest its been on july fourth since 2008. Hans joining us from morgan stanley, very strong prints from the job market had some people saying this is just evidence that the First Quarter gdp wages we saw was a oneoff weather related event. Do you agree . Are all systems go now for risk on stateside . I certainly agree that the u. S. Economy is in much better shape. And the First Quarter decline was a trigger to some extent by a substantial adjustment of inventory. Its additional momentum added to the economy. But that is not the main point to make. The main point to make that in the u. S. , that in the uk. We have seen private sectors adjusting the balance sheets. And the Banking Sector has been recapitalized in the year 2009. And corporates are sitting on huge parts of cash. So you have the situation in the u. S. Where the private sector can releverage again. And that, i think, is an economy where inflation could pick up. Indeed. If that is happening, then yes, watch the situation here in the uk to the United States. Hans, the issue there is the bulls are justified right now, but many people are waiting for earnings to match up to the valuations on stock markets. You point out that often the second half can be very, very different than the first half. The first half has produced risk on levels. What do we need to be cautious about in the second half . In the asset markets, its very clear that markets have been driven by valuation and, therefore, by liquidity. So that means the of the asset market is becoming a liquidity issue. Because the u. S. Dollar is reseven kurptdsy number one. Because of that, it is global liquidity here. And if you are getting into a stage where the fed is prospelling for a rate hike, then i think that it has an impact on global liquidity, as well, and that may as well have an impact on global volatility. We are currently in an environment why volatility is at record low levels. I think when bond yields are going higher, you will not be able to keep this very low level of volatility. That is a game changer for many currencies. When you want example, if you look at the yield differential between the Australian Dollars and the u. S. Dollar, what you see there is the differential has moved now to levels which we have seen in oldest last year. At that time, the Australian Dollar was trading at the 89. Now it is trading at 93. 5. And the different between that is because of very low volatility pushing people in the carry trade, getting them involved there where they think the yields pick up to make. But this story is clearly related to the interpretation of volatility. That is a great example to give us. Thank you very much for joining us, hans. Also, war and unrest in egypt. A series of bombings and protests marks the anniversary of the ousting of mohammed morsi. Authorities arrested nearly 200 people. Supporters of the president caused for a mass protest a year after he was ousted. Hadley, i want to the talk about the economy, but theres probably not point until we establish how it is in egypt right now. Weve seen massive unrest in egypt and weve seen the economy take a major, major hit. Even today, investors there is more confidence obviously and theres still a lot of uncertainty for investors. What youre seeing right now is a gulf country pumping into billions into that economy. And i had one former Prime Minister of egypt tell me the egyptian people, theyre like children. That was his explanation for why a strong man, for example, is going to give confidence to investors. Whats turned out to be unusual, though, the new president has been calling for egypt to tighten itself. But when you have an economy sliding because of all the instability weve been talking about wrb why would aus tailty on top of this be good for the egyptian economy . Its something they have to do. Whether youre talking to egyptian business men or people on the street, everyone knows theres something very wrong with the system where a billionaire can get the same subsidies as the guy using fuel just to make ens meet just to cook in the street. So theres a massive problem with that and everyone is aware of it. One thing they havent done, theyre going to have all of these subsidy reductions. Basically, they spend a fifth of their budget every year with subsidies and creating this false economy. The problem is that they havent even set a date yet. The only explanation for that could be that they are worried about the reaction in the street. When you point out to us the saudis and uae are winning support in egypt, what other factors are they looking at if they intend to get a decent return on their investment . The fundamentals are still there. You still have this ability for tourism to be a major attraction. So tourism can play a major role in getting this country back on track. They need egypt to be stable. They need a strong government in egypt. For them, this is a win again. They feel, however, youre still going to get rumblings. King abdullah was there three weeks ago speaking to the president of egypt. We cant always be picking up the pieces in egypt. Theyre trying to get the state run government involved to build the biggest malls in the region. Everyone knows they cant do it for the long haul, but theyre very hopeful that this new president can get things under control in the next couple of years. So its just going to be timing. Hadley, weve got extended programming today, so plenty time to talk and how that will play to the countrys fortune. Thank you very much for joining us today. So its the first round of quarterfinal matches in the world cup today. Brazil and colombia meet. Colombia has impressed in the early stages while brazil at times has looked vulnerable. If the host nation wins, it will be a record sixth time. And france plays germany. At that event, the german striker hit so hard it knocked him out. It must be time to turn to the world cup oracle for guidance. Suggesting victory for the team from france. How much stock do you put in that . Get in touch. Some of the worlds Biggest Companies will allow top ten pains for big events, such as the world cup. But with controversy surrounding the world tournament, some of the most recognizable brand ambassadors, one of the world cup sponsors was asked what he really brings to his band. Its enormous. When you believe that we produce 36,000 watches for the world, which is nothing. And we are present in 80 countries. So you see a few hundred watches in the country, which is nothing. And we are present in the world cup, which will be seen 40 billion times. Does that change the way that you think about specificity . Is there part of you that thinks maybe we should spent a little bit more than 36,000 . That is what we will not do. Everybody in every slum, every little boy knows the rally. They still produce 7,000 cars. And if our awareness increases, and it does thanks to the world cup, maybe we do 38,000 or 37,500. You have to keep the demand strong, but let people wait and dont make it accessible to everybody immediately. In the past you said Something Like you must always keep the customer hungry and frustrated. We always want what we cannot get. We want somehow what money cannot buy. Thats the rule. Thats likely. When you get something which money cannot buy. This is a lodge heical behavior for customer and that is why we keep our market short, but not too much because then you lose the customer. The customer is not passion forever. Hes ready to wait. So there is a balance which you have to feel. I was looking at one of the watches made especially for the world cup and wondering what is necessary to be in a proper sports watch, as it were, a watch worn by one of the players. Like is there a recipe . A 12hour display shadowed by a 60 minute measure of time which captures half the length of a football match which is 40 memberships. Then you have the yellow and the green colors, the brazil hosting countrys colors. Is there real success for a players watch . I think the recipe is to make people dream. The recipe is to create emotions. The recipe is to please the eyes. The recipe is beauty. Now, do you really need such a watch for football . I would say no because you can have an electronic watch with digital indications, which is much more easy to read. Still to come on the show, David Cameron says scotland is better off with the United Kingdom. Does he have an ally in george galaray . The rally starts here. European markets open in the red despite gains on wall street. And asian stocks hit a thre threeyear number. Austrian lenders erste warns on hungary and romania. A european tax ban goes out to amazon. Eu officials have demanded luxembourg hand over documents regarding the online giants tax affairs. As americans celebrate fourth of july, will scotland get its own independent day . George galloway 75 days ahead of the crucial referendum. European markets have been trading water in session this morning, just drifting into the red. You can see the state of play have been changed too much from our last check. But u. S. Markets out of action today for fourth of july. A lot of the action was staggered. More than the market expected, 288,000 jobs were created. In italy, 2. 8 below the charts there. On some of the other safe havens, fairley low levels, too. 2. 57 on gilts. Foreign markets are noticed an elevation in dollar trade in the past 24 hours and that continues to be the case. Doctoral yen levels is 102 is the handle on the charts this morning. Euro dollar, under pressure. Sterling back trablg tracking, as well. The Australian Dollar has been pucking the trend, jumping to 93 up 0. 1 . America may be celebrating its independence today, but in a few days, scotland will be voting whether it will become independent. We are stronger and more prosperous together. Other countries are on the rise, other people are challenging for jobs in our industry. What sense does it make at a time like that to start separating yourself off with different economic units . And i would argue that this is a powerful argument when things go badly and when things go well. When the royal bank of scotland was in

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