averages. he surged into the lead. he's taken most of the support that had been going to carson and he is the guy to watch and, you know, trump versus cruz is the race to watch in iowa and cruz is surging at the right time. granted, there is more than a month before the iowa caucuses. look at the polling in new hampshire. donald trump still the leader there but he is on a very, very gradual downward slope and you have three people on his heels rubio, cruz, and christie who just watched those guys over the month and see if they pop. the second thing is as dana pointed out, this is a sequential process. we don't have a national primary and vote on the same day. it's one race after another and what happens in iowa will have a huge influence in new hampshire and huge influence on what happens in south carolina. and then finally, you know, to continue being the grinch here, the head-to-head polls, those don't -- the head-to-head