The red wave that wasnt. The people have spoken. We should have seen an overwhelming victory for republicans. We didnt. How a Supreme Court ruling and gop missteps helped democrats defy midterm history. Plus, the comeback kid. We beat the odds. A string of wins on capitol hill and at the ballot box rejuvenates the biden presidency. Why do so few democrats want him to run for a second term . Donald trump under siege. Weapon aized department of justice. Open else has ever gone through this. These people are sick. Is his iron grip over the gop Finally Loosening . Hello and welcome to inside politic sunday. Im abby phillip. 2022. It was the year of the political plot twist. Ups and downs. Twists and turns. Surprises. Unexpected revoels and unended expectations. How did the year end with a Record Number of bipartisan accomplishments . How did the year with donald trump in control of the gop end with rivals ready to challenge him . And how did the party in power overcome raging inflation, an unpopular president and an angry electorate to notch a good midterm performance . Here is how 2022 is closing out from both ends of pennsylvania avenue. For months and months all of you heard from the press is democrats are facing disaster. All those polls, god love them. You know . Historic losses around the way. A giant red wave. Folks, that didnt happen. Remember in the house they dont give gavels out. They give you the gavel. We can govern. Republicans picked up nine house seats providing them with only the slimmest of majorities and democrats not only maintained control of the senate but added a seat to their majority. Lets discuss this and more with amy walter, margaret talbot. What a year it was. By the numbers if the numbers were not enough for you heres how historic democratic expectations beating this was. It is the First Time Since 1934 that every incumbent democratic senator won and First Time Since 1934 the party gained governor seats in the first term election why maybe they lost the house but it is a historic performance. Theres no doubt about it. I think that as we go through the conversation we come back to issues and things over the year but i want to start with the structural advantage that democrats did bring into the election, especially on the senate side. They did not have to win in any state that trump carried and they didnt. They didnt win ohio or north carolina. So that was benefit number one. Benefit number two for the house which we write about for quite sometime is republicans started at a high floor. They had 212 seats. So much higher than in 2010. Where republicans were or 1994 in the 170s. So the room for making these big gains was always difficult. Based just again on the structural advantages and lets be clear. Well talk republican candidates but democrats had strong candidates and campaigns and more important on the senate races they didnt have any retirements. I dont think we appreciate that enough going in with the incumbents that didnt have to come out of a bruising primary. Excellent points and important. On the senate side i was skeptical. Even though democrats were defending the seats that biden won in he didnt carry a lot of states. But in 2022, the Dobbs Decision on abortion. Listen to a pennsylvania voter and how this played for one person. Ism like a lot of us are feeling threatened. I have a granddaughter. Im a woman. I dont want People Dictating to me how i can see my doctor or the conversations to have with my doctor. Coming to inflation i understand its something that happens. It comes and goes. Goes up and down. Okay. Inflation versus abortion. Abortion had a huge role to play. It did. Particularly in pennsylvania. The candidate there fetterman leaned into that issue. He knew of women particularly felt the way that that woman did. Another trend is young women. Right . They were very moved to get engaged in this election. We saw record turnout and because of young woman to get into this and involved because of roe. Sitting there saying i might have less rights than my mother had given that they overturned dobbs . Going into this the energy was on the democratic side around this and a question about would the democrats be able to message this . The Democratic Party sort of didnt really talk about abortion in the way that republicans had learned to do that. It turned out that in some way democrats didnt have to learn to how to talk about it with the cases that came to the stories could not be more the limitations of polling reminded us. When you ask someone whats a more pressing issue, what about both question . It really was a both question for a lot of people. It also gary peters told my colleague last summer as we gear you were for the final push it is hard to try to defend the majority in the hard Economic Times and an end of a pandemic. But democrats had that voters didnt like republicans. I think that combination of the trump hangover, poor trump candidates. The choices of candidates mattered in key places. In arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, in georgia twice. Right. It mattered. Any race in the country as we look back seeing the races that trump touched from endorsing someone in the primary republicans were likely to lose that race. Like georgia, the governors race. I think these things added together. But in pennsylvania i remember talking to vote everies there very concerned. Michigan where abortion was on the ballot. A biggest sur surprise no one expected the legislature to go democratic. There were voters that may have said one thing and then went in the ballot box and a central issue to them. Candidates unacceptable. Trump endorsed pushing abortion. I told amy that i was going to let her take a victory lap on this one. The key factor is those people kind of like eh not thrilled with biden. What would they do in the midterm cycle . Look at the disapproves of President Biden voted. 50 to 44 warnock. New hampshire 72 to 25. And in pennsylvania 51 to 42 fetterman. That is clear. A clear picture and so different from where we were in 2018. The voter that is disapproved of donald trump voted for republican candidates by 30 points. In the National Polling this year those who somewhat disapproved of biden voted for democratic candidate by 4 points. This is quite unusual in part because i think you had a lot of people saying what margaret did which is this isnt an either or election. It is both and. Im disappointed in the president. I dont like how he handles the issues. Not doing as well on the economy. People who said the economy was not good not that it was really bad but not good, the same eh on the economy voted for democrats by 62 . So one important thing to say about the abortion issue. A democratic strategist said to me it was about dobbs. By that meaning we talk about the issue as this is access to a procedure versus a rolling back of rights. That was a big irconcern. Democrats framing it as a freedom issue. We may have to have James Carville update its the economy, stupid. Next for us, how joe biden avoided a Sophomore Slump and a 2022 flashback. History made on the Supreme Court. The path was cleared for me so that i might rise to this occasion. And in the poetic words of dr. Maya angelou, i do so now while bringing the gifts my ancestors gave. Even retirement parties. Man, i love parties. Subway keeps refreshing and refreshing this rental car is so boring to drive. Lets be honest. The rentacar industry is the definition of boring. 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And some very late checkouts. Think you can keep up . With fidelity income planning, well help you create a clear, personalized plan for cash flow, even when youre not working. A plan that includes all your accounts so you can enjoy whatever comes next. Thats the planning effect. From fidelity. President bidens year began with inflation surged. His top domestic priorities fading an and war looming. It ends now with a still growing economy, a long list of accomplishments and a visit with the president of ukraine. I want you to know, president zelenskyy, the people of ukraine to know, as well, the American People are with you and well stay with you. We will stay with you for as long as it takes and together i have no doubt to keep the flame of liberty burning bright and the light will remain and prevail over the darkness. One year ago last week that joe manchin torpedoed the build back better plan but look at the accomplishments since then. The biggest Clean Energy Investment ever. Medicare drug price reform. Bipartisan bills on guns, marriage and heres what they had to say about the trajectory saying there is a pattern where when it comes to biden he is underestimated and longest time people say how he is wrong and when the results come in they say he wasnt wrong. That is in a nutshell how the Biden White House feels. They have a reason to feel vindicated. Without a doubt. The year is ending in a stronger position than it began or than anyone in the building hoped. No one was exactly predicting this. It was a surprise to the president , as well. So interesting as its the 50th Anniversary of the first election as a senator and how many midterm and president ials has joe biden seen . He knows what history shows and defied it. Not because of his own doing but voters could see the accomplishments and he does own the victories and it sends him into the second half of his first term in a much stronger position than he hoped. Now the challenge is to make sure that the country is feeling the things because they arent necessarily. He didnt get inflation right but they have did done a better j job. But for sure he should take a victory lap. Think about go back to the obama his first midterm terrible. Obamacare was the driving issue. Implementation part didnt go particularly well. In fact, he never ran an ad in that president ial reelection in 2012 that mentioned obamacare. Very different going into bidens second half of the first term. Talking about infrastructure and rolling out the Prescription Drug plan in 2023. Building as the president likes to talk about factories to churn out microchips. Even if no legislation gets done next year theres a lot to talk about as accomplishments tie theory of the case is ignore the peanut gallery. Today, too often we confuse noise with substance. Too often we confuse setbacks with defeat. Too often we hand the biggest microphone to the critics and the cynics who delight in declaring failure but those committed to progress do the hard work of governing. Making progress in this country thats as big and complicated as ours is never easy but with unwaivering commitment and patience progress does come. Pretty accurate por tral and he got luck y. Look at the price gas drop. Maybe some things they did or things are totally outside of their control but the most important. If i identify three things to help biden, number one is gas prices. Looking at how they went increases the Approval Rating went down. Then back up. Number two, the ability to reframe this. Number three, democrats coming together to support him. It is the oldest lesson in the book and republicans played it well for a few years which is stick together no matter what. What biden encountered is the Interior Firing Squad and taking incoming from the republicans and not just manchin, the progressive wing. They were painting him as a conservative not in step with the party. As progressives came together to support President Biden. We hear him talk about theres no difference theres no small gavels or large. There definitely are. But you make a good point. I think people were surprised by democratic unity. They were not the most thrilled, the progressives, with joe biden as nominee and now here he is keeping the party together. We talk about domestic politics. Afghanistan was a low point for the biden administration. This moment with zelenskyy this week is a triumphant moment for him. Coupled with the Congress Giving him a pretty big Defense Budget to silence the conservatives for the time being. Setting up a potential reelect that is a little on the hawkish side. Right. The republicans helping them do that questioning whether or not the quite should support ukraine with the billions of dollars with weapons as they fight the incursion from russia. It is a turn around. Listen. Well see what happens with this house and whether or not they actually are going to try to stand in the way of the United States aiding zelenskyy in this war but its been phenomenal. To see what happened with biden. That in some ways what happened with afghanistan began his slide and we saw it really for about a year and then what happened with the gas prices was key. And also he did something that i think a lot of democrats question whether he should do. That was Labeling Maga as extremists talking about democracy being on the ballot. Some democrats particularly moderates felt like is he going too far . Is he losing the bipartisan sheen but that resonated. That was his instinct. It perhaps was presh cent. Will he run . Take a look at the polls. 42 approve. Still unpopular. 40 of democratic leaning democrats think it should be President Biden. Does that weigh in to the calculus . No. Thats what it would have been. If he runs for president five times, it is always difficult going back to 198 7. The Democratic Party never fully behind him at the beginning. As he heads off to christmas vacation in the islands he will be thinking about this. People around him thinks its a go. He takes his time and might be into the end of winter before making a decision. Coming off the midterms bolsters the thinking. Next, former president trumps year has been worse than a lot of people expected but how strong really is his hold on the gop . But first, another 2022 flashback why the first female Speaker Of The House is ending the 20 years as democratic leader. I have seen this body grow more reflective of aur great, beautiful nation. With great confidence in our caucus i will not seek reelection to democratic leadership in the next congress. Were providing greater access to investing, with lowcost options to help maximize savings. From the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. 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Plus ask how to get up to a 750 prepaid card with qualifying internet. 2022 was by objective standards a terrible, horrible, no good, very, very good year for donald trump. Classified documents found at the florida home. January 6 commit tee referred him to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution. His company was found guilty of fraud. And he hosted two notorious antisemites for dinner. He met them all in a typical fashion. If i fly over a state they send me before a grand jury. Theres trump. What can we do . Im going through this for six years. A friend said im the most persecuted person in the history of our country. Its true. I felt he may be right. Theres never been a president thats gone through the crap that im going through left and right. Left. You feel like a fighter. Left and right. Then you knock the hell out of them. Same script different day. This year has been really a rougher year than i think trump and allies expected. You can see the effect on the poll numbers. Question is should trump be the 2024 nominee . Watch as the number drops from 50 in january to 38 . And folks around him are taking notice. They are taking notice and taking notice for two reasons. One is the partys losses. In the midterm elections. Unrealized gains and the prospect of an alternative to be as popular or more popular with the base than trump. It would be naive to say the Republican Party realized he propagated damaging lies that threatened the constitutional future of the United States. This was a slow simmering pot for years and the party stood by him but the cracks that are fomenting are the fallout of january 6 and the ballot box implications. The bill is coming due. Two years after the last president ial election but its not halted his