that are around ukraine right now. so it would be a combination of all those things. and that would then serve to move forward the russians' interests and potentially allow them to take kyiv very quickly. >> we're looking at the intelligence that u.s. officials say they have on russia. they say 70% of their military capabilities are in place for a full-scale invasion. what does that tell you just in terms of the amount of resources that russia has put in place there? >> well, john, i think you have to start with what is the risk of that invasion from the standpoint of using military force to achieve putin's objectives? that will be the trigger point and what he decides to do and if he deploys all those forces in ukraine, particularly from belarus. which you have to assume the objective would be to take kyiv. so there are three big problems putin has to resolve in order, i think, to make that decision. one would be, how does he turn a government in kyiv more like the governments in belarus and kazakhstan, from his perspective, friendly governments. that's not as easy as it sounds even if he does a lightning