The government of ukraine has air defenses in the region where the plane went down. Ukraine says prorussian separatists are behind the crash, while Vladimir Putin says ukraines military campaign against the separatists is to blame for this. Were going to cover all angles of the story for you. And meanwhile, in israel, how long will the ground operation last . And is the showdown with hamas spinning out of control . Were going to take you there live as well. So lets get right to the very latest on flight 17. Back with me now is our chief National Correspondent jim sciutto. Jim, thanks for joining us again. What do u. S. Officials belief happened here and who do they believe is responsible . Well, theyll give an answer to the first question, not to the second question. They believe the plane was taken down by a surfacetoair missile for two reasons. One, u. S. Assets in the region detected a Missile System locking on the radar of a Missile System locking on to this jet before it disappeared. And two, detected the heat signature of the missile going from the ground up to the air and striking this aircraft. The step that u. S. Officials will not take is who shot this plane down. And indeed, where it came from. Was it the russian side of the border or the ukrainian side of the border. That is a step that ukrainian officials are willing to take. And they present a fair amount of evidence to indicate that one of the most convincing, a recorded conversation between what they say is a prorussian militant in the Eastern Ukraine speaking to a Russian Military or intelligence official talking about shooting down this plane. I believe we have the audio here. I think its worth our viewers hearing that audio again of this recorded phone conversation. Okay. Lets listen. Now, the scenario this paints, don, is an alarming one. And that is that ukrainian prorussian militants in ukraine accidentally shot down a passengers plane. They thought they were targeting a Ukrainian Military transport, an antonov 26, as that call referred to which is the kind of plane they shot down earlier this week in fact on monday. And in fact this time took down by accident it appears a malaysian passenger jet. Again, this is based purely on information coming from the ukrainian side. U. S. Officials have not corroborated it. But it also gels with other information the ukrainian officials have noted. And that is that one of the prorussian militant leaders tweeted proudly at the time that this plane was first shot down that his forces had taken down a Ukrainian Military transport. That tweet was later deleted as it turned out to be a passenger jet. This is the narrative that ukrainian officials are building right now, the idea that prorussian militants took this jet down by accident. That tweet youre seeing up there on the air is another point the ukrainian officials have drawn my attention to. And that is this. On june 29th, prorussian militants overtook a ukrainian base in Eastern Ukraine and captured that missile launcher that youre seeing right there. Its a russianmade missile launcher that is called a buk, buk. They captured it. That is the kind of launch theyre would have a range, an Altitude Range to hit a plane at cruising altitude of 33,000 feet. And that fits, again, with this narrative here, that this is what happened. Militants targeting this passenger jet thinking it was a Ukrainian Military jet and taking it down. U. S. Officials have not confirmed that. In fact, don, they have told us tonight that the president is not going to comment any more on this crashed until they have more definitive information. And we saw the president tonight. We didnt see the president. We saw his plane, air force one and also marine one and him head back to the white house from new york. Jim sciutto, thank you very much in washington for us this evening. What kind of weapons system would it take to shoot a commercial airliner out of the sky . Cnns tom foreman has that for you. Reporter to figure out, don, what sort of system was used for this, you have to think about where the plane was at the time. They had been making this flight over ukraine. It was at about 32, 33,000 feet at the moment that it seemed to have failed and go to ground, about 30 miles from the russian border. So what could reach it up here . Not a shoulderfired antiaircraft missile of any sort. Youre going to need something much more robust, Something Like this. This is the buk antiMissile System. Its operated by four people. It has four ready to launch missiles. It can move very quickly. It can fire very quickly. And then it can move on. And these missiles have a tremendous amount of power. Lets bring one down here and talk about what its capable of doing. A buk missile, one of the missiles fired off a unit like this is about 16 feet long. So we have made it a little smaller here just to get it into the picture. It weighs about 1500 pounds. It has a warhead of 154 pounds of high explosives. It doesnt actually have to hit the target. It just has to get close to it. But with electronic guidance from the ground, it can get very, very close before it blows up. And look at that last number there. Top speed 2684 miles an hour. Traveling more than three times the speed of sound. By comparison, a plane like this is only going 500, 600 miles an hour. What that means is if a missile like this is fired at that plane, it can cover 30 miles to the plane in about 40 seconds. And in all likelihood, nobody on board, including the crew, would even see it coming. Don . All right, tom foreman, thank you very much for that. Cnns Richard Quest back with me now. Also joining us is New York Times matthew l. Wald. To hit a 777, a missile like that, a 77 doesnt stand a chance . Not at all. At 33,000 feet. Its moving relatively slow to the missile. It has a certain limited maneuverability. This is an aircraft that is just moving in a straight line. I mean, forget what movies you may have seen about how you could take evasive action. They wouldnt have even seen this coming. By the time they say mai have seen a contrail coming up, it would have been way too late. Matthew, i posed a similar question to richard earlier. But speaking to fareed zakaria, theyre saying this is one of the places on earth that has had the most unrest in recent history. Im wondering what its like getting into that scene from an international community, and if thats going to pose a problem . You have to have the cooperation of all sides. I should add that what we learned at the lockerbie bombing, that was bombed over scotland by moammar gadhafi, if you hit a plane at high altitude, its pressurized. Its got a pressure difference in the range of four or five pounds per square inch, six pounds per square inch. You put a hole in that, and the airplane breaks up. You dont fly it down with a hole in it. So yes, it has no chance. Its a school bus. Its not a maneuverable thing. You need you need to get on the ground. You need to they used to call it kicking the tin. Now its not even aluminum. But you need to get in and see it. And you dont that in a war zone without the cooperation of all parties. How likely, though, i hate to keep harping on this, how likely is it that were going to have a transparent investigation here, matthew . We have conflicts in International Investigations when all the parties are at peace. In this one, each of the two main parties who are contesting for control of the geography have their own outcome that they desperately want to see. So im really not an expert on the politics. But i guess its going to be pretty tough. You agree . Oh, this is to get in there, to get an independent investigation when both parties want a partisan result, one side or the other is going to be very difficult. Matthew hits it spot on. Even on those incidents where you have friendly countricountru still end up with a airplane not wanting to blame its airline or wanting to blame the other side. This is going to be very, very tricky. We were asking the questions in the beginning of the 370, who was going to lead the investigation. Start with what the treaty says, state of occurrence. Thats a problem because of the separatists versus the ukrainians, and work your way down from there. Richard quest, matthew l. Wald, thanks to both you have. When we come back, were going to dig deeper into all the Unanswered Questions about flight 17. Kid hey dad, who was that man . Dad hes our broker. He helps looks after all our money. Kid do you pay him . Dad of course. Kid how much . Dad i dont know exactly. Kid what if youre not happy . Does he have to pay you back . Dad nope. Kid why not . Dad it doesnt work that way. Kid why not . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wald, thanks to both you have. Im living the life of dreams. Im living the life of dreams, with good people all around me. Im living the life of dreams. No im living the life of dreams. Im feeling hopefully. Feeling quite hopefully, its right up here, turn right, turn right. With good people all around me. Right, right, right, right, right with good people all around me. Ok look you guys, shes up here somewhere. With good people all around me. There she is cara come here girl im feeling hopefully. And the light shines bright all through the night. Oh i dont know it. And the light shines bright all through the night. Yes, you do. And the light shines bright all through the night. 42. And the light shines bright all through the night. Good job. And the light shines bright all through the night. And the light shines bright all through the night. And our dreams are making us nice stories. And my loves are well sleeping just right. And i know know know know now. That were, living the life of dreams. Dreams. Theres no monsters down here, [music fades out] dreams. Dreams. Dreams. Its just mr. Elephant. Come on, lets get to bed. When we come back, were going yeah, im married. Does it matter . Youd do that for me . Really . Yeah, id like that. Who are you talking to . Uh, its jake from state farm. Sounds like a really good deal. Jake from state farm at three in the morning. Who is this . Its jake from state farm. What are you wearing, jake from state farm . [ jake ] uh. Khakis. She sounds hideous. Well shes a guy, so. [ male announcer ] another reason more people stay with state farm. Get to a better state. Welcome back. The news that a Malaysia Airlines jet was shot out of the sky today was shocking. How could it happen and what will it mean in the region and the world . Joining me now, cnn military analyst Major General spider marks, and also National Security analyst fran townsend. Matthew rojansky is the director of the Kenan Institute at the wilson center. Matthew, to you first there has been an open flow of military weapons and personnel across the border for months now. Is russia responsible directly or indirectly for this attack . So this is a challenge of positioning and of context at this point. The russian position, putins position, the kremlins position all along has been there is a war going on in ukraine. Its a war that was in their view started by an illegal fascist in their words, coup in kiev. That is the protest, the pro european, pro western protest, and its sort of been the natural outbreak of conflict. The western position is, a, the russians may in fact be calling a lot of the shots directly. There may be russian citizens, and in fact Russian Special forces physically involved on the ground, and certainly the russians are supplying weapons. What is critical to understand about this latest tragedy is that there is still a fair amount of ambiguity about the system that was actually used. If in fact it was captured on ukrainian territory, then its not clear that you can really connect the dots here between something russia is doing and this result. And i think that will give mr. Putin plenty of room to push the west back and say look, wait a second. We have been calling for a negotiated diplomatic solution here. It hasnt worked as much because the ukrainians want to keep fighting, want to keep mounting what they call a Counter Terrorist operation because of anything were doing. Lets slow down here, lets all work together. And frankly, if they maintain that position, i think it would be smart of the United States and the west to give them that exit ramp as the administration has called it and try to at least work with them to get a ceasefire in place and to get some kind of credible international investigation. Fran, im going to get your take. The same question to you. Yeah, look. I do think matthew is quite right about their being a lot of ambiguity here. We cautioned our viewers over and over. What we need more than anything right now are facts before we draw sort of what are the consequences ought to be. But there is good evidence over now a substantial period of time of russian influence and involvement for sure with these russian separatists in the ukraine. And russia has played a spoilers role, right . They have an interest in destabilizing ukraine, in supporting the russian separatists. The question really on this tragedy is were they responsible for supplying the weapons that were used. Certainly they have supplied other weapons. Certainly they provided advice and training. And so, you know, there is a good likelihood when we have defects that russia may bear responsibility. But we havent confirmed that yet. General . Don, youre expecting a lot of me, man. The question was about six minutes ago. Would you like me to reread the question to you . No. Are they directly or indirectly responsible . Don, im with you 100 . Both fran and matt are absolutely spot on. The russians annexed crimea after the maidan incident. The world just accepted that as a fait accompli. And now its part of russia again. So that inspired and allowed additional anger and frustration. We have an ungoverned space in Eastern Ukraine, and these kinds of tragedies take place, and well figure out clearly as we have discussed and as fran has just laid out what took place as a result of some really good intelligence that is going to take place both technical and human intelligence and well piece all that together. And clearly, tomorrow morning the president will get on his desk a president daily brief that is going to say this is what we estimate occurred. And then well go about the business of really trying to do some good intelligence forensics to piece it all together. So ill ask you the question directly first, then, general. What i want to know is the relationship between the president , president obama and Vladimir Putin, its already strained. So sure. With this event, are we are we possibly going to see a cold war scenario . Well, thats a stretch. I mean, clearly, i would say its chilly right now. The cold war was an immense engagement, gazillions of collars. Mutually assured destruction. Were not there. But what we have is i think fran said earlier this evening, probably 16 hours ago, weve been sitting in these chairs. But fran indicated that putin knows exactly with great clarity what took place. We probably know as much as he does, because we can read their telemetry data just like they can read their telemetry data. And all that is taking place right now. The president and putin have a strained its probably cordial when theyre in proximity. This is going to be very, very difficult for our administration to state with emphasis what we think the next steps are going to be. But we have to be able to paint a picture that we can all understand before we take those next steps. Matthew, i want to ask you in our short time left here, is this a problem of putin or does it go beyond that . Is he the problem or is it far beyond that . I actually think its a far broader problem both in terms of russia. You have to remember an overwhelming numbers of russian news are supportive of putin, certainly because of his annexation of crimea, but also because of his characterization that i described earlier as this about protecting the russian minority in ukraine in what he believes is a fascist, illegal coup. A great number of russians support this. This is about a breakdown of a Security Order for half a century or more has maintained prosperity and enabled prosperity in europe. I think what might be changing as a result of this particular incident wherever you lay the blame, remember the huge number of casualties here which are western european citizens, netherlands and germany and the uk. These are companies that have not felt the way that poland has, the way that ukraine has closely involved in this until now. And that may fundamentally change the calculus about sanctions, about involvement and about seeing this conflict as a european war and not some problem far off in the east. Ive learned the most from having you three on in this conversation tonight. So thank you. Thank you all for being here tonight. Up next, the reporter who was an eyewitness to this devastating scene tonight. Im mary and i have copd. Im jeff and i have copd. Im lisa and i have copd, but i dont want my breathing problems to get in the way of hosting my book club. Thats why i asked my doctor about breo. Oncedaily breo ellipta helps increase airflow from the lungs for a full 24 hours. And breo helps reduce symptom flareups that last several days and require oral steroids, antibiotics, or hospital stay. Breo is not for asthma. Breo contains a type of medicine that increases risk of death in people with asthma. It is not known if this risk is increased in copd. Breo wont replace rescue inhalers for sudden copd symptoms and should not be used more than once a day. Breo may increase your risk of pneumonia, thrush, osteoporosis, and some eye problems. 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