Middle east, where the war has intensified and the israelis and palestinians are once again facing off. How does this all end . With new states all together or just unending violence . Ill talk with two great experts on the future of the middle east. Then we will not be sending u. S. Troops back into combat in iraq. So can the United States fight against terrorists with just spies and drones . Ill ask a man who once ran the cias operations overseas. Also, despite being ousted from the world cup, america has become a true soccer nation. Ann coulter says its a scary sign of a new america. Peter byner says shes right. Then washington, d. C. Is broken, but america is working surprisingly well. I will take you to a place with aun employment rate half the national average. How does this city do it . I will show you. But first, heres my take. Ive always loved july 4th, one of those special American National holidays that are celebrations not of religion, ethnicity or sect, but rather freedom and of americas unique National Identity that is based on it. But around the world these days, were seeing the rise of another kind of National Identity, one that can be darker and more troubling. In the recent elections for the european parliament, nationalists, populists and even Xenophobic Party ds surprisingly well. The Uk Independence Party beat ute all the established parties. Frances National Front won handily guess the ruling socialist party. In greece, the quasifascist golden dawn won half a million votes, awarding seats in the parliament for the first time. Many commentators have described this as a consequence of the dereliction and slow recovery that still afflicts much of europe, but similar voting patterns can be seen in countries like syria, denmark, which are all doing well economically. The parties that do well center their agenda not to economics, but on immigration and culture, on promoting National Identity. You can see it not just in europe but around the world. Look at Prime Minister abe and his plan to reinterpret japans pacifist constitution and remilitarize after 70 years. Or putin in russia, erdogan in turkey, xi jinping in china, in all cases assertive nationalism is the core part of the leaders appeal. Why is this happening . One explanation is as globalization and technological revolutions transform the world, people feel uneasy, uneasy at the pace of change, and they search for something they can hold on to, as a source of stability. Looked around the world and everywhere we see this phenomen phenomenon. People are worried that are country is changing beyond recognition, and that they are being ruled by vast distant forces, whether the European Union in brussels, the imf, or the federal government in washington, forces that are beyond their control, and by people who do not share their values. The rise of the tea party fits this pattern. After exhaustive research, the scholars Vanessa Williamson and Peter Scotchford concluded it was perhaps the central issue for tea party members, something reinforce bid eric cantor and his loss of the election. Political ideology, more government, less government, different government. But as Samuel Huntington noted many years ago, the force that seems to be moving the world these days is not political ideology but political identity. Everyone is asking the question, who are we . And who are we not . Even in america, even on july 4th. For more, go to cnn. Com fareed, and read my the Washington Post column this week. Lets get started. So lets make sense of all of this turmoil in the middle east and where its likely to lead. Joining me now to do just that, robin wright is a longtime foreign correspondent, having reported from an astounding 140 countries. Her latest book is rock the casbah, and farwaz gerge is tis London School of his latest book is the knew middle east protest and revolution in the arab world. Welcome back to both of you. Robin, let me start with you. You had a terrific piece in tte New York Times a year ago that struck me in which you mapped out a new middle east based on the realities of the ground. Describe for us what you new map of the middle east looks like. In the aftermath of the arab uprisings, we saw a combustible emerge that allowed ethnicities and tribes and religions begin to fight for their rights with dictators now absent from the scene. And that exploded. Syria, of course, lit the match. Were now seeing syria, at least, into three different pieces. And that has been explosive in rippling across borders, challenging traditional boundaries established a century ago. We see that play out in iraq today, where we see the emergence of at least three different parts of the country, the kurds particularly in the north, almost kind of de facto establishing their own boundary with the rest of iraq by deploying their own militia in that part of the border. Its also playing out in north africa, where you see the end of gadhafis rule three years ago, unleashing rival tribes sbchlt here were seeing in libya, those who live around the capital, tripoli, looking increasingly toward the western islamic world and those in benghazi looking toward the eastern world sbchlt theyve long been standing rivals over resources and power. And you have the south, much more like africa than like north africa. So you see these dynamics rippling across the region. Farwaz, when you have written about it, would you have written that the core reason that this is happening is state failure. The failure of the governments to have built any institution, so when the dictators left, you realize there was almost nothing there. I think the syria, the place that you come from, which had what was it, seven or eight coups between the 1940s and 1970s, then 40 years of highly repressive stability and now is back to a period of pure chaos . You know, far eeed, this is t about sectarianism or tribalism, its about state failure. Its a developmental fate, the postcolonial state, the existing state has basically delivered neither prosperity nor security, nor Human Security in the last 60 or 70 years, has bledsoe sights dry, has destroyed even the fragile institutions that existed in colonialism and replaced it with a cult of personality. You had assad, saddam hussein, gadhaf gadhafi. I mean, people think of them at least as some of the richest regions in the world, and it is, yet out of the 320 million arabs, 40 of arabs either live in poverty or below the poverty line. You also have had foreign intervention. Think of the American Invasion and occupation of iraq, what it has done to state institutions, how it dismantles state institutions and, finally, you have, of course, the lack of progressive leaders in the arab world. And this is, again, linked to the crisis of authoritarianism. Where is the Nelson Mandela of the arab world . Robin, is there in prospect of leadership that has the authority to, first of all, actually control the country, take control, in effect have a monopoly of force in the borders, then to build the state institutions, make them inclusive, but still Strong Enough to actually govern the country . It seems like a tall order when you look at the characters, you know, at play in iraq and syria and libya. Absolutely, but i think the problem is not as much state institutions as it is the basic principle. Its hard to build an institution when you dont have an agreement on which to found your democracy, to build those institutions. And who is going to do it . How are you going to divide up the different responsibilities . And this is where were seeing increasingly across the region a kind of darwinian evolution, rather than democracy taking flower. Its survival of the fittest rather than trying to develop a common good. Thats where iraq has been such a tragedy. In the same way lebanon was when i lived there in the 1980s, when it went through its own civil war. 15 years over the issue of power sharing between christians and muslims. And it took 15 years to sort out that basic principle. The danger is iraq becomes lebennized lebanonized. You see this being a prolonged struggle over the basic struggle how they share power. If they cant come up with that basic principle, theres no prospect of building institutions, much less holding these chris together. Then we get into the kind of chaos that will have a strong rippling effect on whether its the patterns of trade, energy flows, security challenges not just for the region, but for the outside world as well. Farwaz, what should the United States any outside power, but the United States as the principle outside power, what can the United States do . Is what president obama is doing right now a plausible response to this chaos . Fareed, i think what barack obama is doing is the right thing. You know im very critical about American Foreign policy. Ive written extensively on Foreign Policy in the middle east. Barack obama is correct to basically keep a distance from the killing fields in the middle east. Barack obama is correct to let the region develop its own instruments of government. The reality is this is a crisis that only people in the region should and can resolve. What the United States can do and barack obama can do is to work with multilateral powers, with the united nations, the international community, the european powers, regional powers, invest leadership capital in order to help basically build institutions and also bridge the divide between the contesting and contending forces in the region. Fascinating conversation, sobering, but very enlightening. Thank you very much. Lets take this issue to the next step. How should the United States protect itself from terrorism and terrorists in this violent and changing landscape . Can we just stay out and use drones and spies to do the dirty work . I have two experts to answer just that question when we come back. From safety. To fuel economy. To quality. Todays chevrolet has it all. And its a great time to buy. During the chevy 72 hour sale, youll get 0 apr for 72 months. 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Aawh no, look, i know this is about the troops and not about me. Right, but i dont look like that. Who can i write a letter to about this . Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. President obama promised three week ago not to send to send troops, but ever since then the insurgents have been gaining ground. What if they set up terrorist Training Camps . Will drones do the trick . How about covert operations . My next two guests he was think cia for 32 years. At the cia forhis book good hu was recently published. And greg johnson is a journalist, scholar and experts on the use of drones. Hes the author of refuge yemen, al qaeda and americas war in arabia. In which you said you will not be able to do what the United States has done in yemen, which is use drones when you see them in iraq. Explain why. Theyre mingling with the population in the cities so i think we have what the u. S. In yemen is trying to bomb al qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as a way of containing the groups, so the group doesnt send any bombs to the United States. We dont have another underwear bomber. In iraq, its different. What youre trying to do is up root this group from territory theyve taken. Drones are amazing, but they cant solve every problem. So, if youre trying to get them out of territories, you cant use the drone and the problem with using them in cities is that, of course, youll have massive civilian casualties since theyll be intermingled with the population . Absolutely. Really, i think the thing that is the weak link when it comes to drones, you know, you can hit the car driving down the road and you can hit nothing else. If you dont have the intelligence if, you dont have the spies on the ground to know which car to hit, then youre going to hit civilians and then were going to have a problem like weve had recently. So what we see is the u. S. Has been bombing using drones in yemen the past four years. But instead of al qaeda getting smaller in yemen, theyre getting bigger. If they try to do the same thing in iraq, my worry is the same thing will happen in iraq. The group will get bigger rather than reduce in size. Jack, you have dealt with these things all over the world. When you look back, your job was to make sure the terrorists dont gain strength, find them and help us kill them, what would you do . First of all, i think problem solving begins by having the pl plumbing in ahead of time and anticipating the problem. Im hopeful thats what we have here. Not all sunnis are supportive of isis. There are groups we have worked with before. When you say plumbing, you hope that the cia has been putting in place friends, allies and informants inside iraq . Exactly. Gregs point is right on target. If you dont have the sources, your drone effort will not be very good. Its only going to be effective if you have highquality intelligence. And it is not the solution. Drones are not i agree 100 , are not going to solve the problem. But i do believe its part of the package. You know, what youre describing, it seems to me, is your fear that if you use drones, you produce more of a backlash and grows the insurgency or the terrorist group. If thats the case, why have we been using drones so much over the last five years and proclaiming it a big success . Thats a very good question. In president obamas commencement address at west point, he said u. S. Actions have to meet a very simple test. They have to kill more terrorists than they produce. And right now, the u. S. Is not meeting that test. So you look around the middle east. You look in yemen, iraq, syria, north africa, libya, egypt and other places and it seems like the problem is growing instead of being tamped down. And i think one of the problems and i agree completely with what jack said is that you cant go out and you cant wait and wait and wait, and then wait for a crisis and then act. You have to be going all along. And i think the problem that the u. S. Has had over the past several years is that weve been burned so much as a country by being in the middle east that we want a handsoff policy. And so we do nothing for such a long time and then things reach a crisis point and then its all or nothing. And that, i think, is a real problem. I think greg and i the love fest is going to end right here. In other words, the drones have been immensely successful when you look at their application. Weve taken out so many of the al qaeda leadership. I dont think theres a direct line between those attacks and the growing problem that we have. We have a much more serious problem in the sectarian sunni shia struggle that is producing warriors for their side. Its not tied directly for their drones. One of the big lessons that you talk about in your book from afghanistan is complete withdrawals tend to leave you with very few option. Thats right. Thats where im an advocate for using the agency. When you withdraw, you leave behind the agency, maintaining the plumbing, adding to the plumbing so that when circumstances require, youre not starting from ground zero. I love the terminology, maintain the plumbing, keep the agency. Greg . Yeah. So, just on jacks point, the u. S. Has done a spectacular job about eliminating people in yemen, theyve killed the americanborn cleric, said al shihri, second in command. Yet they killed these people and the organization isnt crumbling like many thought they would. Youre cutting off the heads and the organization continues to grow. They havent been able to execute any major terrorist attack in the western world for a while. Youre right. They havent. But they have come very, very close. I think the problem is this is a new type of war for the u. S. This is a type of war in which success may not be best measured by body bags. So just because we kill more people and just because we kill leaders doesnt necessarily mean that the u. S. Is winning a war. Fascinating, sobering conversation as well. When we come back, there is general agreement that chien wra doesnt always play by the rules in trade and economics. So washingtons brilliant solution, promoted by conservatives, no less, is unilateral disarmament. Thats keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. At humana, we believe if healthcare changes, if frustration and paperwork decrease. The gap begins to close. So lets simplify things. Lets close the gap between people and care. Thats why i always choose the fastest intern. R slow. The fastest printer. The fastest lunch. Turkey club. The fastest pencil sharpener. The fastest elevator. The fastest speed dial. The Fastest Office plant. So why wouldnt i choose the fastest wifi . I would. Switch to comcast Business Internet and get the fastest wifi included. Comcast business. Built for business. Now for our what in the world segment. You know countries dont always play by the rules of in